Nonlinear asymmetric models of the short‐term interest rate

This study introduces a generalized discrete time framework to evaluate the empirical performance of a wide variety of well‐known models in capturing the dynamic behavior of short‐term interest rates. A new class of models that displays nonlinearity and asymmetry in the drift, and incorporates the level effect and stochastic volatility in the diffusion function is introduced in discrete time and tested against the popular diffusion, GARCH, and level‐GARCH models. Based on the statistical test results, the existing models are strongly rejected in favor of the newly proposed models because of the nonlinear asymmetric drift of the short rate, and the presence of nonlinearity, GARCH, and level effects in its volatility. The empirical results indicate that the nonlinear asymmetric models are better than the existing models in forecasting the future level and volatility of interest rate changes. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 26:869–894, 2006     

An empirical comparison of neural network and logistic regression models

The purpose of this paper is to critically compare a neural network technique with the established statistical technique of logistic regression for modeling decisions for several marketing situations. In our study, these two modeling techniques were compared using data collected on the decisions by supermarket buyers whether to add a new product to their shelves or not. Our analysis shows that although neural networks offer a possible alternative approach, they have both strengths and weaknesses that must be clearly understood.     

Forecasting the term structure of interest rates and portfolio planning models

This paper analyzes the impact of interest rate forecast quality—both forecast yields and the covariants matrix of yield forecasts—on optimal portfolios developed by quadratic programming. Forecast equations are estimated for a term structure of government securities because of the importance to banking of such restricted portfolios. A cost/ benefit comparison between actual and optimal portfolios using both forecast and realized yields provides an estimate of the economic value of risk information.     

An interest rate defense of a fixed exchange rate?

Defending a government's exchange-rate commitment with active interest rate policy is not an option in first-generation models of speculative attacks. In those models, the interest rate is the passive reflection of currency-depreciation expectations. In this paper, we show how to adapt the first-generation framework to allow for an interest rate defense. It is shown that increasing domestic currency interest rate before the attack makes domestic assets more attractive according to an asset substitution effect, but weakens the domestic currency by increasing the government's fiscal liabilities. As a result, an interest rate defense can be successful only conditional on sound fiscal policy.     

An empirical analysis of the factors raising the interest in new shopping destinations

The relationship among the factors in the rising interest in new alternatives is empirically investigated in the context of shopping destination choice behavior. The hypothetical causal relationship is that the rising interest in new alternatives requires both active information search and considerable benefit, which is supported by the results of the mixture structural equation models using a data set containing revealed shopping behaviors and attitudes toward shopping destinations in the Tokyo metropolitan area: a lower level of satisfaction with the current choice set incites external information search for all subjects; however, the benefit of adding new alternatives affects the interest in new alternatives only in the group that engages in active information search.     

A note on the long rate in factor models of the term structure

In this paper, we consider factor models of the term structure based on a Brownian filtration. We show that the existence of a nondeterministic long rate in a factor model of the term structure implies, as a consequence of the Dybvig–Ingersoll–Ross theorem, that the model has an equivalent representation in which one of the state variables is nondecreasing. For two‐dimensional factor models, we prove moreover that if the long rate is nondeterministic, the yield curve flattens out, and the factor process is asymptotically nondeterministic, then the term structure is unbounded. Finally, we provide an explicit example of a three‐dimensional affine factor model with a nondeterministic yet finite long rate in which the volatility of the factor process does not vanish over time.     

Procurement auctions and negotiations: An empirical comparison

Real-world procurement transactions often involve multiple attributes and multiple vendors. Successful procurement involves vendor selection through appropriate market mechanisms. The advancement of information technologies has enabled different mechanisms to be applied to similar procurement situations. However, advantages and disadvantages of using such mechanisms remain unclear. The presented research compares two types of mechanisms: multi-attribute reverse auctions and multi-attribute multi-bilateral negotiations in e-procurement. Both laboratory and online experiments were carried out to examine their effects on the process, outcomes, and suppliers’ assessment. The results show that in procurement, reverse auctions were more efficient than negotiations in terms of the process. Auctions also led to greater gains for the buyers than negotiations, but the suppliers’ profit was lower in auctions. The buyer and the winning supplier jointly reached more efficient and balanced contracts in negotiations than in auctions. The results also show that the suppliers’ assessment was affected by their outcomes: the winning suppliers had a more positive assessment toward the process, outcomes, and the system. The findings are consistent in both the laboratory and the online settings. Finally, the implications of this study for practitioners and researchers are discussed.     

An empirical comparison of the efficacy of covariance-based and variance-based SEM

Variance-based SEM, also known under the term partial least squares (PLS) analysis, is an approach that has gained increasing interest among marketing researchers in recent years. During the last 25 years, more than 30 articles have been published in leading marketing journals that have applied this approach instead of the more traditional alternative of covariance-based SEM (CBSEM). However, although an analysis of these previous publications shows that there seems to be at least an implicit agreement about the factors that should drive the choice between PLS analysis and CBSEM, no research has until now empirically compared the performance of these approaches given a set of different conditions. Our study addresses this open question by conducting a large-scale Monte-Carlo simulation. We show that justifying the choice of PLS due to a lack of assumptions regarding indicator distribution and measurement scale is often inappropriate, as CBSEM proves extremely robust with respect to violations of its underlying distributional assumptions. Additionally, CBSEM clearly outperforms PLS in terms of parameter consistency and is preferable in terms of parameter accuracy as long as the sample size exceeds a certain threshold (250 observations). Nevertheless, PLS analysis should be preferred when the emphasis is on prediction and theory development, as the statistical power of PLS is always larger than or equal to that of CBSEM; already, 100 observations can be sufficient to achieve acceptable levels of statistical power given a certain quality of the measurement model.     

An empirical comparison of consumer-based measures of brand equity

This article compares eleven different consumer-based brand equity measures and evaluates their convergence. Predictive validity at the individual and aggregate levels is also investigated. Measures based on the dollar metric method and discrete choice methodology predict choices extremely well in a simulated shopping environment, as well as purchase-intention and brand-quality scales.     

An empirical inquiry into the nature of the forward exchange rate bias

This paper tests whether anticipated real exchange rate movements fully account for the systematic, time-varying discrepancies between forward and future spot exchange rates. The data do not reject this hypothesis. The results demonstrate that (1) real exchange rate changes are predictable; (2) anticipated real exchange rate changes are reflected in the forward bias; and (3) information available at the signing of the forward contract is useless in forecasting differences between forward and future spot prices beyond the information's ability to predict real exchange rate changes. The results emphasize the importance of real exchange rates in international asset pricing.     

An empirical examination of the relation between futures spreads volatility,volume, and open interest

This study investigates the relation between petroleum futures spread variability, trading volume, and open interest in an attempt to uncover the source(s) of variability in futures spreads. The study finds that contemporaneous (lagged) volume and open interest provide significant explanation for futures spreads volatility when entered separately. The study also shows that lagged volume and lagged open interest, when entered in the conditional variance equation simultaneously, have greater effect on volatility and substantially reduce the persistence of volatility. This finding seems to support the sequential information arrival hypothesis of Copeland (1976). Finally, the findings of this study also suggest a degree of market inefficiency in petroleum futures spreads. © 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 22:1083–1102, 2002     

An empirical comparison of alternative methods for principal component extraction

A major problem confronting users of principal component analysis is the determination of how many components to extract from an empirical correlation matrix. Using 30 such matrices obtained from marketing and psychology sources, the authors provide a comparative assessment of the extraction capabilities exhibited by five principal component decision rules. These are the Kaiser-Guttman, scree, Bartlett, Horn, and random intercepts procedures. Application of these rules produces highly discrepant results. The random intercepts and Bartlett formulations yield unacceptable component solutions by grossly under- and overfactoring respectively. The Kaiser-Guttman and scree rules performed equivalently, yet revealed tendencies to overfactor. In comparison Horn's test acquitted itself with distinction, and warrants greater attention from applied researchers.     

Effects of interest rate swaps

In this paper we examine the effect of interest rate swaps on the firm, and identify characteristics of firms that use interest rate swaps, reporting findings consistent with interest rate swaps being used as a risk-reducing instrument. Relative to nonswappers, firms using swaps are more likely to experience decreased cash flow variance in the five-year period subsequent to swap initiation. In addition, firms that engage in swaps are found to be larger and more highly levered than a control sample of nonswappers. Dividing our sample based upon type of swap, we find different characteristics explain different types of swap. In particular we find evidence consistent with swaps from variable to fixed interest rates being engaged in for risk reduction, i.e., hedging purposes.     

Pricing Eurodollar futures options with the Ho and Lee and Black,Derman, and Toy models: An empirical comparison

This article compares empirically the Ho and Lee (1986) and Black, Derman, and Toy (1990) discrete-time debt option pricing models in the pricing of Eurodollar futures options over the period from March 1997 through February 1998 using daily data. The results indicate that both models performed well. The average absolute pricing errors over the sample period were less than one tick (0.01) in every case. The Black, Derman, and Toy model slightly outperformed the Ho and Lee model in the pricing of in-the-money call options and out-of-the-money put options over the period studied. © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 19: 291–306, 1999     

An interest rate and factor price equalization theorem with nontraded commodities

The model under consideration consists of m pure consumption goods, n capital goods, and h ≦ m primary factors of production in long-run time-phased equilibrium. Two alternative capital intensity conditions are defined in terms of physical unit input coefficients which suffice for equalization of the interest rate, all capital good prices, and all primary factor prices, provided only there is positive trade in every consumption good and in at least one capital good. If the capital intensity conditions hold at all factor prices, the result remains valid even if trading regions have a technology consisting of neoclassical production functions.     

Simultaneous option prices and an implied risk-free rate of interest: A test of the Black-Scholes models

Two parameters in the Black-Scholes model, the risk-free rate of interest and standard deviation of stock returns, cannot be directly observed. Nevertheless, it is possible to simultaneously solve for the two parameters by using the prices of two different options written on the same security. If the Black-Scholes model is valid, then the implied interest rate from one repair of options should equal the implied interest rate from another pair of options for a given trading day. The analysis reexamines simultaneous option price data from a previous study using the implied interest rate test, and the results support the validity of the Black-Scholes model if we consider the bid/ask spread of option prices and that options are traded over discrete intervals.     

Exchange rate regime and external adjustment: An empirical investigation for the US

This paper analyses the relationship between the US net external position and the exchange rate regime. I find a structural break in the US net external position at the end of the Bretton Woods system of fixed exchange rates that changed both the mean and variance of the series. On average, the US changed from a creditor to a debtor position and the variance of the external position increased during the floating period. This increase is to a large extent due to the valuation component of external adjustment that accounts for 54% of the variance of the US external position during the floating period but only 29% during the fixed exchange rate period. Further analysis shows that the exchange rate regime mainly affects the valuation channel of external adjustment. There is also evidence of another structural break in the US external position around the time of the introduction of the euro. Finally, I document asset pricing implications from the relationship between the exchange rate regime and the external adjustment process, as external imbalances predict the foreign exchange once the exchange rate regime is taken into account.