Life Insurance Liabilities at Market Value: An Analysis of Insolvency Risk, Bonus Policy, and Regulatory Intervention Rules in a Barrier Option Framework

This article takes a contingent claim approach to the market valuation of equity and liabilities in life insurance companies. A model is presented that explicitly takes into account the following: (i) the holders of life insurance contracts (LICs) have the first claim on the company's assets, whereas equity holders have limited liability; (ii) interest rate guarantees are common elements of LICs; and (iii) LICs according to the so‐called contribution principle are entitled to receive a fair share of any investment surplus. Furthermore, a regulatory mechanism in the form of an intervention rule is built into the model. This mechanism is shown to significantly reduce the insolvency risk of the issued contracts, and it implies that the various claims on the company's assets become more exotic and obtain barrier option properties. Closed valuation formulas are nevertheless derived. Finally, some representative numerical examples illustrate how the model can be used to establish the set of initially fair contracts and to determine the market values of contracts after their inception.     

Pricing for Multiline Insurer: Frictional Costs,Insolvency, and Asset Allocation

This article examines multiline insurance pricing based on the contingent claim approach in a limited liability and frictional costs environment. Capital allocation is based on the value of the default option, which satisfies the realistic assumption that each distinct line undertakes a pro rata share of deficit caused by insurer insolvency. Premium levels, available assets, and default risk interact with each other and reach equilibrium at the fair premium. The assets available to pay for liabilities are not predetermined or given; instead, the premium income and investment income jointly influence the available assets. The results show that equity allocation does not influence the overall fair premium. For a given expected loss, the premium-to-expected-loss ratio for firms offering multiple lines is higher than that for firms only offering a single line, due to the reduced risk achieved through diversification. Premium-to-expected-loss ratio and equity-to-expected-loss ratio vary across lines. Lines having a higher possibility or claim amount not being paid in full exhibit lower premium-to-expected-loss ratio and higher equity-to-expected-loss ratio. Positive correlation among lines of business results in lower premium-to-expected-loss ratio than when independent losses are assumed. Positive correlation between investment return and losses reduces the insolvency risk and leads to a higher premium-to-expected-loss ratio.     

Effects of Bank Funds Management Activities on the Disintermediation of Bank Deposits

Abstract:   This study investigates the alleged disintermediation of banks' traditional deposit‐taking in favour of investment management activities. Using data on Australian bank‐affiliated funds and a nine‐year record of the parent banks' liability balances, this study finds that managed funds do not displace bank liabilities. Prudential capital adequacy requirements dissuade banks from using in‐house managed investments as indirect conduits for raising funds in the same manner as deposit‐taking.     

Risk management of non-maturing liabilities

Risk management of non-maturing liabilities is a relatively unstudied issue of significant practical importance. Non-maturing liabilities include most of the traditional deposit accounts like demand deposits, savings accounts and short time deposits and form the basis of the funding of depository institutions. Therefore, the asset and liability management of depository institutions depends crucially on an accurate understanding of the liquidity risk and interest rate risk profile of these deposits.In this paper we propose a stochastic three-factor model as general quantitative framework for liquidity risk and interest rate risk management for non-maturing liabilities. It consists of three building blocks: market rates, deposit rates and deposit volumes. We give a detailed model specification and present algorithms for simulation and calibration. Our approach to liquidity risk management is based on the term structure of liquidity, a concept which forecasts for a specified period and probability what amount of cash is available for investment. For interest rate risk management we compute the value, the risk profile and the replicating bond portfolio of non-maturing liabilities using arbitrage-free pricing under a variance-minimizing measure. The proposed methodology is demonstrated by means of a case study: the risk management of savings accounts.     

Liability taxes,risk, and the cost of banking crises

This study investigates the effects on risk and financial stability of the taxes on bank liabilities introduced across European countries after the global financial crisis. Using a difference-in-differences setup, we show that banks responded to the implementation of liability taxes by reducing their interbank exposure, and by increasing both equity, at least in the short term, and the risk weight of their assets. When we consider these adjustments in a microsimulation model for bank portfolio losses, we find that liability taxes reduce risk in the banking sector and could therefore decrease the cost of crises.     

Issues in the Drive to Measure Liabilities at Fair Value

This paper compares the discussion on liability measurement in Accounting The0y Monograph 10 with the liability measurement requirements in recent international proposals on accounting for financial instruments. Rather than conducting a detailed review of the Monograph, the paper examines three major issues which wawant amplifjing, extending or criticising: What is “fair value”? Why fair value liabilities? Should fair value include an entity's own credit risk? The focus is on financial liabilities such as “plain vanilla” debt; other financial liabilities, such as insurance obligations, pensions, wawanties and environmental damage restoration involve additional considerations and are therefore not considered.     

Portfolio analysis of asset and liability management in small-, medium- and large-sized banks

The paper presents an analysis of the commercial banking firm based on Markowitz portfolio analysis. A bank is treated as a portfolio of five banking assets and three banking liabilities. The average rate of return and risk of each asset and liability is estimated empirically for groups of banks categorized by size — small, medium and large. Banks' rates return on equity are defined as the weighted average of the assets' rates of return less the liabilities' rates of return. Quadratic programming is used to delineate the set of banking portfolios which have the maximum rate of return on equity at each level of risk.     

Market Value Margin für die Fair Value-Bilanzierung versicherungstechnischer Verpflichtungen : Ableitung auf Basis des CAPM

The International Accounting Standards Board (IASB) started a project on Insurance Accounting to apply the principles of fair value to insurance businesses. The so called ?asset and liability approach“ would focus on the balance sheet, with both assets and liabilities being reported at fair values, while income and expenses are defined in terms of changes in the values of those assets and liabilities. Indeed, there are no deep and liquid markets for insurance liabilities. Thus, the fair value has to be calculated as a theoretical value, using assumptions concerning future events, risk provisions and discount rates. Both in theory and in practice a generally accepted modelling of fair value is missing. Particularly with regard to the deviation of a Market Value Margin (MVM), which reflects the premium that a marketplace participant would demand for bearing the uncertainty inherent in the cash flows, there is a need for adequate modelling. Transforming the CAPM for determining risk loads in insurance will mean measuring the correlation between insurance companies’ returns from underwriting and market returns on its shareholders’ equity. The criticism on an underwriting beta focuses on (a) the basic assumptions of the CAPM, (b) the absence of active markets for insurance liabilities and (c) the unreliability of estimating underwriting betas.     

To Hedge or Not to Hedge: Managing Demographic Risk in Life Insurance Companies

Demographic risk, i.e., the risk that life tables change in a nondeterministic way, is a serious threat to the financial stability of an insurance company having underwritten life insurance and annuity business. The inverse influence of changes in mortality laws on the market value of life insurance and annuity liabilities creates natural hedging opportunities. Within a realistically calibrated shareholder value (SHV) maximization framework, we analyze the implications of demographic risk on the optimal risk management mix (equity capital, asset allocation, and product policy) for a limited liability insurance company operating in a market with insolvency‐averse insurance buyers. Our results show that the utilization of natural hedging is optimal only if equity is scarce. Otherwise, hedging can even destroy SHV. A sensitivity analysis shows that a misspecification of demographic risk has severe consequences for both the insurer and the insured. This result highlights the importance of further research in the field of demographic risk.     

Recovering the real-world density and liquidity premia from option data

In this paper, we develop a methodology for simultaneous recovery of the real-world probability density and liquidity premia from observed S&P 500 index option prices. Assuming the existence of a numéraire portfolio for the US equity market, fair prices of derivatives under the benchmark approach can be obtained directly under the real-world measure. Under this modelling framework, there exists a direct link between observed call option prices on the index and the real-world density for the underlying index. We use a novel method for the estimation of option-implied volatility surfaces of high quality, which enables the subsequent analysis. We show that the real-world density that we recover is consistent with the observed realized dynamics of the underlying index. This admits the identification of liquidity premia embedded in option price data. We identify and estimate two separate liquidity premia embedded in S&P 500 index options that are consistent with previous findings in the literature.     

Liquidity Provision and Financial Stability

When financial intermediaries' key characteristic is provision of liquidity through their liabilities, with financial frictions, the financial sector in the aggregate is likely to overaccumulate equity, thus decreasing liquidity provision and household welfare. Aggregate household welfare is therefore decreasing in the level of aggregate intermediary equity even though the individual value of intermediaries is increasing in equity, which is why intermediaries overaccumulate equity. Subsidizing intermediary dividends can improve welfare by encouraging earlier payout and decreasing aggregate equity in the financial sector. This policy increases the likelihood that intermediaries provide more liquidity and improves the stability of the economy, even though asset prices fall.     

新《保险法》下说明义务之履行

保险人说明义务的立法经过了一个逐渐完善的过程,新《保险法》以保护被保险人利益为目标,对说明义务作了更加严格的规定。原《保险法》中的责任免除条款修改为免除保险人责任的条款之后,保险人的说明范围大大扩展,包括不负赔付责任的条款、限制责任条款和涉及特定责任的条款。在说明方式上,宜采取书面解释与询问说明相结合的方式,以加强说明义务的可操作性和可证明性。同时,保险人的说明程度宜采取理性外行人标准。     

Financial reporting for employee stock options: liabilities or equity?

This study seeks to determine whether employee stock options share key characteristics of liabilities or equity. Consistent with warrant pricing theory, we find that common equity risk and expected return are negatively associated with the extent to which a firm has outstanding employee stock options, which is opposite to the association for liabilities. We also find the following. (1) The association is positive for firms that reprice options and less negative for firms that have options with longer remaining terms to maturity, which indicates that some employee stock options have characteristics that make them more similar to liabilities. (2) Leverage measured based on treating options as equity has a stronger positive relation with common equity risk than leverage measured based on treating options as liabilities. (3) The sensitivity of employee stock option value to changes in asset value mirrors that of common equity value and is opposite to that of liability value. Also, we find that, unlike liabilities, employee stock options have substantially higher risk and expected return than common equity. Our findings are not consistent with classifying employee stock options as liabilities for financial reporting if classification were based on the directional association of a claim with common equity risk and expected return. Rather, our findings suggest the options act more like another type of equity.     

Balance Sheet Management: The Case of Short-Term Obligations Reclassified as Long-Term Debt

We investigate potential management of balance sheet ratios by a sample of firms that reclassify short-term obligations to long-term debt and subsequently declassify that debt (return it to the current liability section). Although aggregate measures of liabilities and equity remain unchanged when firms reclassify (declassify), the practice does increase (decrease) reported measures of liquidity, such as the current ratio, and long-term leverage. Our results suggest that firms reclassify and declassify to smooth reported liquidity and leverage, relative to the prior year and to industry benchmarks. Our evidence is also consistent with firms working around restrictive debt covenants.     

The Value of Deposit Insurance in the Presence of Interest Rate and Credit Risk

In this paper we employ the theory of the term structure of interest rates and the pricing of interest contingent contracts to determine the fair value of insurance for depository institutions. The balance sheet of a bank is taken to consist of long and short positions in various fixed income securities. Deposit insurance for the bank is a put option on the value of the assets. The value of deposits, assets, the implied exercise price of the put and the value of the put are all determined simultaneously as part of the same valuation solution. The approach is developed initially for a single‐state term structure. It is extended to incorporate credit risk on bank assets.
The most important policy implication is that for a bank whose assets are longer term than its liabilities and whose borrowers are not excessively leveraged the properly calculated, risk‐adjusted deposit insurance premia are increasing functions of the level of interest rates. Sensitivity analyses also treat such factors as the bank's deposit to asset ratio, duration gap, interest volatility, the volatility of assets backing the bank loans, and the bank's borrowers' debt to equity ratio.     

The association between fair value measurements and banks' discretionary accounting choices

This study examines the association between fair value measurements and banks' discretionary loan loss provisions using regulatory financial data from 2009 to 2016 for a sample of U.S. public bank holding companies. I find that banks recognizing larger proportions of fair value assets and liabilities based on level 2 and level 3 inputs are associated with lower discretionary loan loss provisions. However, there is no significant association between level 1 fair value assets and liabilities and discretionary loan loss provisions. When pre-managed earnings are lower, banks with larger proportions of level 2 and level 3 fair value assets and liabilities report smaller discretionary loan loss provisions to inflate earnings. Banks reporting larger proportions of level 2 and level 3 fair value assets and liabilities are more likely to use discretionary loan loss provisions to beat earnings benchmarks and manage tier one capital ratios. Overall, the results support the proposition that fair value assets and liabilities based on level 2 and level 3 inputs are less transparent and are subject to more discretion regarding loan loss provisions.     

International investment patterns: Evidence using a new dataset

This paper examines the bilateral, source and host factors driving portfolio equity investment across a set of countries using International Monetary Fund's new dataset on international equity holdings at the end of 1997, 2001 and 2002.The paper finds that the bilateral equity investment is strongly correlated with the underlying patterns of trade in goods and services. The information asymmetries and cultural-institutional proximity are important for bilateral equity investment. The size of domestic stock market is the key correlate of aggregate foreign portfolio equity asset and liability holdings. The scale of aggregate foreign equity asset holdings is larger for countries having high income per capita.     

Glamour Acquirers, Method of Payment and Post‐acquisition Performance: The UK Evidence

We study the effect of different acquirer types, defined by financial status and their payment methods, on their short and long‐term performance, in terms of abnormal returns using a variety of benchmark models. For a sample of 519 UK acquirers during 1983–95, we examine the abnormal return performance of acquirers based on their pre‐bid financial status as either glamour or value acquirers using both the price to earnings (PE) ratio and market to book value ratio (MTBV). Value acquirers outperform glamour acquirers in the three‐year post‐acquisition period. One interpretation is that glamour firms have overvalued equity and tend to exploit their status and use it more often than cash to finance their acquisitions. As we move from glamour to value acquirers, there is a greater use of cash. Our results are broadly consistent with those for the US reported by Rau and Vermaelen (1998). However, in contrast to their study, we find stronger support for the method of payment hypothesis than for extrapolation hypothesis. Cash acquirers generate higher returns than equity acquirers, irrespective of their glamour/ value status. Our conclusions, based on four benchmark models for abnormal returns, suggest that stock markets in both the US and the UK may share a similar proclivity for over‐extrapolation of past performance, at least in the bid period. They also tend to reassess acquirer performance in the post‐acquisition period and correct this overextrapolation. These results have implications for the behavioural aspects of capital markets in both countries.     

The determinants of private capital flow volatility in Sub-Saharan African countries

The study investigates the underlying factors of patterns of volatility for FDI, portfolio equity and cross-border bank lending inflows for sub-Saharan African countries using a panel framework with data from 1990 to 2011. No other study has focussed exclusively on sub-Saharan Africa when investigating the determinants of private capital flow volatility. This study is further unique in that it employs clearly-delineated cross-border bank lending data from the Bank of International Settlements’ (BIS) Locational Banking Statistics that has not been used by similar prior studies. The findings of the study are as follows: (1) global liquidity lowers FDI volatility while private sector credit increases volatility; (2) global liquidity increases portfolio equity volatility with growth and the quality of macroeconomic policies found to be important pull factors in lowering volatility; and (3) the quality of macroeconomic policies and trade openness are important pull factors in lowering cross-border bank lending volatility while financial openness increases volatility.     

Performance Reporting under Fair Value Accounting

Abstract

This paper compares performance measurement under fair value accounting vs. U.S. GAAP accounting. As illustrated in the paper, the main difference between fair value accounting and U.S. GAAP accounting lies in the treatment of gains and losses on both assets and liabilities. Fair value accounting would report all gains and losses on both assets and liabilities in the period in which they arise. U.S. GAAP on the other hand, recognizes gains and losses over the life of the block of business (or at the time of a transaction). When net gains and losses on assets and liabilities are immaterial, the pattern of earnings under both systems can be quite similar. However, If a company is generating significant gains or losses on its net book of business (such as in the case of an asset/liability mismatch), fair value accounting will reveal this much sooner than U.S. GAAP. When the full impact of its actions (including gains and losses) is reported in the current period, management is in a better position to understand how the value of the company is changing and adjust its decisions accordingly. This is one of the main reasons for moving to a fair value system and is expected to be a major benefit if fair value accounting is ultimately adopted.