Intertemporal Permit Trading for the Control of Greenhouse Gas Emissions

This paper integrates two themes in the intertemporal permitliterature through the construction of an intertemporal bankingsystem for a pollutant that creates both stock and flow damages. A permit banking system for the special case of a pollutant thatonly causes stock damages is also developed. This latter,simpler case corresponds roughly to the greenhouse gas emissionreduction regime proposed by the U.S. Department of State as ameans of fulfilling the U.S. commitment to the FrameworkConvention on Climate Change. This paper shows that environmentalregulators can achieve the socially optimal level of emissionsand output through time by setting the correct total sum ofallowable emissions, and specifying the correct intertemporaltrading ratio for banking and borrowing. For the case ofgreenhouse gases, we show that the optimal growth rate of permitprices, and therefore the optimal intertemporal trading rate, hasthe closed-form solution equal to the ratio of current marginalstock damages to the discounted future value of marginal stockdamages less the decay rate of emissions in the atmosphere. Given a non-optimal negotiated emission path we then derive apermit banking system that has the potential to lower net socialcosts by adjusting the intertemporal trading ratio taking intoaccount the behavior of private agents. We use a simplenumerical simulation model to illustrate the potential gains fromvarious possible banking systems.     

中国贸易开放与温室气体排放:文献综述

目前,全球气候变暖作为世界环境问题的四大热点之一不断升温,国际社会各种多边或双边活动日益频繁。中国作为CO2等温室气体排放大国,面临国际减排的压力与日俱增。西方国家鼓吹的"中国气候威胁论"也愈演愈烈,致使中国成为世界气候变暖的众矢之的,然而,通过对国内外文献的梳理,我们发现快速增长的外贸出口和不断扩大的贸易顺差才是导致中国碳排放增长的真正"源头",那些大量消费甚至奢侈消费"中国制造"商品的发达国家同样肩负一定的责任,一味指责中国是不公正、不公平和片面的。     

Climate Response Uncertainty and the Benefits of Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reductions

Some recent research suggests that uncertainty about the response of the climate system to atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations can have a disproportionately large influence on benefits estimates for climate change policies, potentially even dominating the effect of the discount rate. In this paper we conduct a series of numerical simulation experiments to investigate the quantitative significance of climate response uncertainty for economic assessments of climate change. First we characterize climate uncertainty by constructing two probability density functions—a Bayesian model-averaged and a Bayesian updated version—based on a combination of uncertainty ranges for climate sensitivity reported in the scientific literature. Next we estimate the willingness to pay of a representative agent for a range of emissions reduction policies using two simplified economic models. Our results illustrate the potential for large risk premiums in benefits estimates as suggested by the recent theoretical work on climate response uncertainty, and they show that the size and even the sign of the risk premium may depend crucially on how the posterior distribution describing the overall climate sensitivity uncertainty is constructed and on the specific shape of the damage function.     

Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the Queensland Electricity Supply Industry: Gas and Carbon Tax Scenarios

This article examines various greenhouse gas scenarios for the electricity supply industry in the coal‐rich state of Queensland. The authors use a dynamic partial equilibrium model of the Queensland electricity system to examine the effects of four alternate policy scenarios: a business‐as‐usual case, a centrally planned gas‐fired case, and two carbon tax scenarios– the first in which the merit order of coal and gas plant is reversed, and the second in which fuel switching is undertaken. The results indicate that no scenario is capable of delivering sufficient cuts in emissions to meet a ‘Kyoto equivalent’ industry target. While fuel switching brought about the greatest reduction in emissions, the high cost of this scenario indicates that a more efficient outcome for the electricity supply industry in Queensland would be a broad‐based Australia‐wide approach to emissions abatement, so that carbon reductions can be accessed from industries capable of achieving lower cost emissions abatement.     

Opportunity Cost for Free Allocations of Emissions Permits: An Experimental Analysis

An important feature of emissions trading is how emissions permits are allocated. The choice between an auction and free allocation should not influence firms’ production choices nor consumer prices according to economic theory. However, many parties expect the method of allocation to affect product prices. This paper describes an experimental investigation into price determination under a cap-and-trade program with different allocation methods. Participants initially display diverse pricing strategies. However, given a simple economic setting in which earnings depend on behavior, we find that subjects learn to consider the opportunity cost of permits and overall behavior moves toward the economic prediction.     

我国企业采取减排行动的经济动因分析

促使我国企业采取节能减排行动的动因是多元的,除了国家实施的各项法律规范和强制性国家标准形成的规范性压力外,还包括一系列经济因素。这些经济因素包括:政府为促使企业节能减排所采取的涉及财税、金融、政府采购以及产业规划等各项经济激励政策;企业所面临的包括碳排放技术标准、碳足迹标示以及碳关税等三项低碳贸易壁垒;企业可利用国际碳交易市场获益并需顺应国内碳交易市场发展要求;企业承受的低碳供应链压力和外界对企业声誉的关注。     

Policy Forum: Designing a Carbon Price Policy: Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions at the Lowest Cost

Arguments for using a tax or an emission‐trading scheme on a comprehensive base of greenhouse gas emissions as a lower‐cost way of reducing pollution than regulations or subsidies are explained. While the Australian Government's ‘Clean Energy Future’ scheme, with its proposal for a price on carbon, moves in the low‐cost direction, the base is less than comprehensive and the scheme persists with, and in important ways increases the roles of, cost‐ineffective regulations and subsidies.     

Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Fisheries: The Case of Multiple Regulatory Instruments in Sweden

The fishing sector is a candidate for efficient climate policies because it is commonly exempted from greenhouse gas taxes and the fundamental problem of using a common pool resource is far from optimally solved. At the same time, fisheries management has other objectives. This study uses Swedish fisheries to analyse how the fishing sector and its climate impact are affected by regulations aiming at: (1) solving the common pool problem (2) taxing greenhouse gas emissions and (3) maintaining small-scale fisheries. The empirical approach is a linear programming model where the effects of simultaneously using multiple regulations are analyzed. Solving the common pool problem will lead to a 30 % reduction in emissions and substantially increase economic returns. Taxing greenhouse gas emissions will further reduce emissions. Policies for maintaining the small-scale fleet will increase the size of this fleet segment, but at the cost of lower economic returns. However, combining this policy with fuel taxes will reduce the size of the small-scale fleet, thus counteracting the effects of the policy. If taxation induces fuel-saving innovations, it is shown that this will affect not only emissions and fleet structure, but also quota uptake.     

Pooling of Uncertainty: Enforcing Tradable Permits Regulation when Emissions are Stochastic

An under-appreciated advantage of tradable permits regulation is its ability to create better decision-making when emissions are stochastic. In general, the distribution of stochastic actual emissions around intended emissions results in over- or under-compliance. Permit tradability reduces the extent to which actual aggregate emissions deviate from regulatory targets, by giving firms an additional mechanism for responding to uncertainty. We construct a two period model of permit regulation with ex post enforcement to demonstrate how the permit market distributes uncertainty, and to illustrate the importance of expectations toward permit market outcomes.     

温室气体减排对企业的影响及应对策略研究

从分析气候变化和温室气体减排对企业的影响入手,提出了企业应对的策略——创新策略和补偿策略;再根据企业实施应对策略范围的不同,提出了6种基本的策略矩阵模型,以及基于基本策略的3种复杂组合策略,涵盖了企业应对商业策略的主要模式。还进一步分析了不同应对策略的特点及主要形式,探讨了其对企业成本和竞争力的影响,并在此基础上对我国企业应对温室气体减排策略的选择提出了建议。     

Buyer Liability and Voluntary Inspections in International Greenhouse Gas Emissions Trading: A Laboratory Study

This paper reports a preliminary laboratoryexperiment in which traders make investments toincrease the reliability of tradableinstruments that represent greenhouse gasemissions allowances. In one half of thesessions these investments are unobservable,while in the other half traders can invitecostless and accurate inspections that makereliability investments public. We implement abuyer liability rule, so that if emissionsreductions are unreliable (i.e., sellersdefault), the buyer of the allowances cannotredeem them to cover emissions. We find thatallowing inspections significantly increasesthe reliability investment rate and overallefficiency. Prices of uninspected allowancesusually trade at a substantial discount due tothe buyer liability rule, which provides astrong market incentive for sellers to investin reliability.     

Transition of the Chinese Economy in the Face of Deep Greenhouse Gas Emissions Cuts in the Future

China joined the Paris Agreement, and the global 2°C and 1.5°C warming targets will be supported by China. In order to achieve these targets, China's CO₂ emissions need to be cut deeply by 2050. The present paper presents studies from the integrated policy assessment model for China (IPAC) team about the impact on China's economic development of deep cuts in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, in order to realize the Paris climate change targets. With the requirement of deep cuts in GHG emissions in China, China's economic development will also be impacted in moving toward a low‐carbon or zero‐carbon emission‐based economy by 2050. This means the Chinese economy needs a strong transition over the next three decades, a relatively short time. All sectors in the economy need to seek ways to reduce GHG emissions, and this could change activities, industry processes and technologies in order to make the deep cuts in GHG emissions happen. This is the meaning of the economic transition toward to a low‐carbon economy. The findings of the present paper include: a significant transition in the energy supply sector; a high rate of electrification in all end‐use sectors; and a technology transition in the transport sector. Transitions will also occur in the traditional industrial sectors, including steel making, cement manufacture, and the chemical sector. The availability of low‐cost renewable energy could change the allocation of industries, which could potentially have a strong impact on regional economic development. Deep cuts in CO₂ emissions in China need not be a burden for economic development, as the IPAC results show there will be a more than 1.5% increase of gross domestic product by 2050 in the deep cut scenario compared with the baseline scenario.     

Migrant Networks: Empirical Implications for the Italian Bilateral Trade

A significant number of empirical studies, focusing on different countries, have found a positive link between migration and trade. This paper studies the relationship between emigration, immigration and trade using Italian data. The sample regards 51 foreign trading partners and spans from 1990 to 2005. The results suggest that networks of Italian emigrants in foreign countries boost bilateral trade. The effects of immigrants are weak on exports and negative on imports. Results do not change when cultural and institutional dissimilarities between countries are considered.     

中国温室气体排放、能源消费与经济增长的实证分析

本文利用时间序列计量经济方法检验了中国的CO2排放量与能源消费、GDP、对外贸易、资本形成、人口等变量之间的关系。研究发现变量之间存在长期的均衡关系。长期内变量之间存在着双向因果关系;而在短期内,存在着GDP、能源消费、对外贸易、资本形成到CO2排放量等四种单向因果关系,其中CO2排放、能源消费、GDP和资本形成在各自的因果关系中所起的作用尤为显著。实证结果也发现能源消费对CO2排放具有加速影响趋势,对外贸易对CO2排放的影响也十分关键,而且变量之间存在着一个稳定的CO2排放方程。相应的政策建议是,中国应该实施低碳经济战略,加快低碳转型,发展低碳经济。     

The Permits Game: Conveying the Logic of Marketable Pollution Permits

A classroom game, the Permits Game is an interactive technique to help students understand how the market can be used to arrive at a cost-effective method for pollution control.     

Bilateral Trade Agreements and the Feasibility of Multilateral Free Trade

We studied how the pursuit of bilateral free‐trade agreements (FTAs) affects the likelihood of achieving multilateral free trade. We derive and compare the stable Nash equilibria of two games of trade liberalization: in the FTA game, each country can either form an FTA with one of its trading partners or both of them or none of them, whereas in the (restricted) No FTA game, purely bilateral FTAs are not permitted. The major result is that there exist circumstances under which the freedom to pursue (discriminatory) bilateral FTAs is necessary for achieving multilateral free trade.     

地球暖化与温室气体的排放——中日贸易中的CO2排放问题

本文结合中日两国国民收入及外贸基本经济数据,利用数学方程把经济因素、环境因素、国际关系联系起来,建立了环境与经济综合分析的模型,测算经济与环境之间的数量关系,同时为中日两国的环境政策合作、能源管理和可持续发展研究提供了基础数据。     

外商直接投资和区域贸易自由化是促进经济发展的有效手段吗?

近10年来，外商直接投资和区域贸易自由化取得了长足的进步。许多人认为，自由贸易与外商直接投资促进了经济发展，因而他们建议发展中国家应该加入自由贸易协定并接受外商直接投资以实现它们的发展目标。本文探讨了在不损失与国家产业促进计划和贸易保护相关的初始经济福利的前提下，自由贸易和外商直接投资是否能够代替国家来推动产业进步，促进经济发展。此外，本文还讨论了规制环境的变迁及其对经济发展的影响。     

On the Use of Exchange Rates as Trading Rules in a Bilateral System of Transferable Discharge Permits

The use of a system of transferable discharge permitsto control the harmful effects of non-uniformly mixedpollutants requires the application of trading rulesin order to prevent permit trading among sources fromviolating environmental standards. The elements andproperties of bilateral trading rules can be analyzedmore easily once formulated as exchange rates, whichwould convert, in a cost-effective way, the emissionright potentially given up by the seller into an offsetting emission right acquired by the buyer. Inthis article, a new expression for such exchange ratesis proposed and then analyzed to infer someunexplored properties of the system.