银行危机持续时间的影响因素研究

文章以l980—2012年间的85次银行危机为样本,以经济增长恢复到危机前水平的所需时间为银行危机持续期的度量标准,综合考虑危机前经济体的经常账户、政府债务、资产价格变化情况以及危机中的财政政策、货币政策实施情况,采用简单线性回归模型对银行危机持续时间的影响因素进行了分析。研究发现,危机前的股票价格指数增长越快,银行危机的持续期越长,危机中货币供应的增长会使银行危机的持续期加长,危机中扩张性的财政政策以及危机中较快的全球经济增长则能在一定程度上缩短银行危机的持续期。     

银行危机经济代价的影响因素研究

选取77个国家发生的89次银行危机为样本,分别以危机后的经济衰退程度和通胀成本作为银行危机经济代价的度量标准,采用简单线性回归模型对银行危机经济代价的影响因素进行了分析。研究发现,危机前的经常账户表现越差、房地产价格下降幅度越大,则危机后的经济衰退程度越严重。危机前的股票价格指数上涨越快,银行危机的通胀成本则越高。危机中政府财政支出的增加可以显著的降低危机后的经济衰退程度,危机中贬值策略的实施能够显著降低银行危机的通胀成本,危机中货币供应的增长则会显著提高危机后的通胀水平。     

基于危机相关者的企业危机公关战略构建

危机相关者作为与企业危机关系最密切的角色,是企业危机公关战略构建的核心。关注危机相关者,是构建企业危机公关战略的前提。文章主张以危机相关者为核心,通过对危机相关者分析、战略关系确定、战略选择去构建企业危机公关战略;从消除危机的影响、恢复企业的形象去实施危机公关战略;并从不同阶段的沟通控制确保战略实施的时效性和有效性。     

流动性危机还是偿付性危机?——金融危机的性质辨析

在频繁发生的金融危机中,一般同时包含了流动性不足和不能偿付债务的现象,由此,对金融危机的性质是流动性的还是偿付性的问题,人们一直争论不休,欧债危机再次激发了对该议题的辩论。本文厘清相关概念,从20世纪30年代大萧条中银行危机的历史中提炼出两个经验事实,在此事实的基础上,尝试建立规范的框架来解释本文观点,金融危机的形成过程中同时包含基本面冲击因素和心理恐慌因素,两者引起的"不偿付性"与"不流动性"相互促进,使风险逐渐放大,最终形成了金融危机。这也说明了金融危机的性质既是不偿付性的也是不流动性的,金融援助方案也应该根据不同时段的特点来制定。对2007～2008年的美国次贷危机和正在进行中的欧债危机的剖析,进一步印证了本文的观点。     

危机管理与企业核心能力建设

进入21世纪,世界进入了经济全球化、知识经济和互联网经济的时代,这个时代环境的总体特征是震荡、突变、不确定性增强,这就给企业带来各种各样的危机,企业必须重视危机管理,才能实现企业的可持续发展.要管理好企业的危机,就必须明确企业危机产生的原因,文章认为企业的核心能力不强是企业危机产生的根本原因.在此基础上,文章提出要管理好企业的危机,就必须加强企业的预测能力、应变能力、文化能力和学习能力等核心能力的建设.     

超越紧缩——探索欧洲主权债务危机的终结之道

2009年希腊债务危机拉开了欧洲主权债务危机的帷幕,并将全球金融市场置于危险的境地,至今仍无见底迹象且呈现扩散的趋势。欧洲主权债务危机爆发的根源在于欧元区成员国之间的竞争力失衡,欧元区政策框架存在制度性缺陷使得问题进一步加剧。欧元区领导人推出一整套危机永久解决机制,然而此方案并未触及欧元区深层次的问题,距离债务危机的永久解决还有很长的路要走。危机的最终解决已经超越了纯粹的经济学范畴,它将取决于各国的政治决心和魄力以及欧洲精神的复兴,反思欧洲现有的经济与社会发展模式,寻求经济增长的新路径。     

加入WTO对我国财务的影响

本文结合CLM图和信用危机特征 ,分析指出 :当今信用危机已显现 ,我们必须从文化、资源、社会等成因出发 ,提高道德水平和加强法制建设 ,才能防范其恶化。     

公共危机管理的社会资本作用分析——以汶川大地震和SARS的对比为例

在介绍公共危机管理的基础上,将社会资本引入其领域,通过两件公共危机事件:SARS和汶川大地震中社会资本作用的不同,指出在公共危机管理中社会资本的坏的和积极作用;提出在公共危机管理过程中必须合理有效地发挥社会资本的积极作用。     

Results of the development of the Russian economy in 2009 and its long-term forecast

This article examines the state of the Russian economy during the crisis of 2009. The key points of the crisis development and the effect of major crisis and destabilizing factors are analyzed. A long-term scenario forecast (up to 2025) of socio-economic development of Russia is given.     

企业信用危机预警系统及方法没计

企业信用危机预警系统包括企业信用危机信息收集、信息加工、防范、警报等子系统。信用危机预警根据设置的指标体系进行量化综合考量后进行预警决策。     

欧洲主权债务危机的内生性与外生性研究

南欧成员国社会福利过度造成的财政支出扩张与经济停滞导致的财政收入收缩是欧洲主权债务危机的内生性成因。美国因素是欧洲主权债务危机的重要外生性解释变量。美国试图通过债务危机打压欧元是为了巩固美元的全球霸权。即使欧洲主权债务危机在短期内对于欧元产生了一定的冲击,但在长期仍有可能造就一个更强大的欧元。     

Is the COVID-19 pandemic more contagious for the Asian stock markets? A comparison with the Asian financial,the US subprime and the Eurozone debt crisis

The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has sent shock waves across the global stock markets. Several financial crises in the past too have had a global impact with their reach extending beyond the country of origin. The current study compares the contagion effect of four such crises viz. the Asian financial crisis, the US subprime crisis, the Eurozone debt crisis, and the currently ongoing Covid-19 crisis on Asian stock markets to understand which of these has had the most severe impact. It finds that among all the four crises, the US subprime crisis has been the most contagious for the Asian stock markets. The study also highlights the difference between severities of a liquidity crisis versus a real crisis and identifies the markets that remained insulated from all these crises, a finding which will be useful for portfolio managers in devising their asset allocation.     

金融危机下企业财务战略与财务竞争力研究

此次金融危机的破坏性越来越严重,尽快走出危机的“泥潭”成为政府、企业和社会公众的一致愿望。文章对本次金融危机爆发的根源进行简要阐述,指出克服“旁观者”效应,鼓励企业“打造核心竞争力”．变“救市输血”为“强企造血”才是应对危机的根本。提升企业核心竞争力的方面很多,文章以财务竞争力和价值链的视角为企业应对危机,进而也为后危机时代建立系统完善有效的财务管理体系提出思路。     

金融危机向社会危机传导的经济法与社会法组合防范

金融危机有向社会危机传导的风险。在此背景下,以增进社会整体福祉为宗旨、追求结果和实质公正,实现经济和社会可持续发展的经济法和社会法在防范危机传导中作用突出。经济法偏重于危机预防和经济增效功能,社会法偏重于修复保障和社会增效功能,二者需要功能配合。回应防范危机传导的需要,进一步在实践中沉淀智慧和过滤结晶,立基于理念共生耦合、着力于制度协调互动,加强二者的功能组合,有利于形成制度协力来达到双赢效果。     

Currency Crises and the Term Structure of Interest Rates

The currency crisis literature has identified two possible types of crisis: fundamentals based crises and self-fulfilling crises. A fundamentals based crisis arises when some state variable, such as foreign exchange reserves, reaches a critical level and triggers the abandonment of the fixed rate. A self-fulfilling crisis is triggered by an autonomous change in the beliefs of speculators. This paper demonstrates how these two types of crises generate different behaviour in the term structure in the period before the crisis. JEL Classification Numbers: E43, F31     

Financial Globalisation and the Crisis

The global financial crisis provides an important testing ground for the financial globalisation model. We ask three questions. First, did financial globalisation materially contribute to the origination of the global financial crisis? Second, once the crisis occurred, how did financial globalisation affect the incidence and propagation of the crisis across different countries? Third, how has financial globalisation affected the management of the crisis at national and international levels?     

风险社会下城市公共危机治理的路径探讨--基于社会资本理论的视角

随着社会转型的逐步深入,我国已经进入了风险社会。作为风险的实践性后果,诸多危机相互交织,呈现出不确定性、复杂性等特点,城市公共危机治理遇到前所未有的挑战。文章以社会资本理论为分析视角,探讨城市公共危机治理中社会资本的功能,在分析公共危机治理中整合社会资本面临的困境基础上,探寻城市公共危机治理的路径。     

The Korean stock market volatility during the currency crisis and the credit crisis

This paper studies the volatility of the Korean stock market during the Asian currency crisis of 1997–1998 and the global credit crisis of 2008–2009. We use a fad model with Markov switching heteroskedasticity, which was first proposed by Kim and Kim (1996). Using the monthly data from January 1980 to October 2009, we find that the volatility of the transitory component of the stock return, or fads, increased during the currency crisis, but did not rise much during the credit crisis. It implies that the stock price fluctuations were not driven by irrational sentiments during the recent global crisis as much as during the former crisis. However, when we consider the dollar value of the Korean stock index in order to estimate the volatility that foreign investors confront, we find that the volatility of the transitory component was raised during the credit crisis as well as during the currency crisis. That is, foreign investors experienced greater volatility than domestic investors in the recent financial market turmoil. This asymmetric volatility that domestic and foreign investors face is one of the characteristics of the credit crisis.For more detailed analysis, the same model was applied to the weekly data from January 2005 to October 2009 and provided the result that the data measured by won–dollar exchange rates were more increased than the raw data. It holds that foreign investors confronted much greater volatility than domestic investors while the stock volatility was relatively lower in the credit crisis state than in the currency crisis state.     

市场经济的危机与化解——马克思经济危机理论的当代意义

经济危机作为市场经济的伴生物,它并不是资本主义社会独有的,而是市场经济社会必须共同面对的经济问题。在经济危机之后,当我们重新审视马克思主义经济学的理论价值时,我们不仅要承认马克思的经济危机成因论的理论价值,更要重视马克思在分析资本主义经济危机过程中所给出的走出危机的理论路径。因为,在新的历史条件下,依据马克思主义经济学的基本思想,研究当代经济的现实问题,形成化解经济危机的新的马克思主义经济学理论,应是后危机时期马克思主义经济学的首要任务。     

Scenario modeling of the stability of the russian budget system against external economic shocks in 2013–2015

The results of forecast modeling of the Russian budget system’s stability against external economic shocks are presented in the paper. Two scenarios are considered: Scenario 1 or “short-term crisis” with its acute phase lasting about three quarters (similarly to the crisis of 2008–2009) and Scenario 2 or “protracted crisis,” which implies a duration of crisis phenomena of about a year and a half (to put it hypothetically, in 2013–2014). On the basis of the scenario forecast modeling results, the conclusion is drawn that regional budgets are the weakest link of the Russian budget system. The crisis period is characterized by an urgent necessity of handing over a part of tax revenues received by the federal budget to the regional level and increasing money transfers to the budgets of federal subjects.