Asset Allocation Via The Conditional First Exit Time or How To Avoid Outliving Your Money

The risk of outliving your money (or shortfall) with low risk, low return investments is very often more serious than the risk of losing money on high risk investments, until quite late in life. A stochastic process model incorporating mortality tables for men and women of retirement age, random rates of return and fixed initial wealth and desired level of consumption provides the analytical tool. A simulation using Canadian mortality tables and rates of return shows that almost all retirees should invest some of their wealth in equity, and for many the optimal allocation is 70–100% equity. The risk of shortfall is surprisingly high for a reasonable range of values of the variables, especially for an allocation of 100% in treasury bills. Women face much greater risk of shortfall than men. The analytical model also permits calculation of the distribution of the bequest and hence allows an individual to trade off changes in shortfall risk against changes in the expected bequest to the heirs.     

Foreign competition and the durability of US firm investments

How does the exposure to product market competition affect the investment horizon of firms? We study if firms have an incentive to shift investments toward more short‐term assets when exposed to tougher competition. Based on a stylized firm investment model, we derive a within‐firm estimator using variation across investments with different durabilities. Exploiting the Chinese World Trade Organization (WTO) accession, we estimate the effects of product market competition on the composition of US firm investments. Firms that experienced tougher competition shifted their expenditures toward investments with a shorter durability. This effect is larger for firms with lower total factor productivity.     

The agency problem,investment decision,and optimal financial structure

This article constructs a real options model in which a firm has a privileged right to exercise an irreversible investment project with a stochastic payoff. Supposing that the investment costs are fully sunk, a firm that exercises the investment option after debt is in place will then choose a better state to exercise this option as it issues more bonds. This debt-overhang phenomenon, however, benefits the firm since waiting is itself valuable. Accordingly, the firm will both exercise the investment option later and issue more bonds as compared with a firm that issues bonds upon exercising the investment option.     

Corporate socially responsible investments: CEO altruism,reputation, and shareholder interests

Corporate managers often invest in activities that are deemed to be socially responsible. In some instances, these investments enhance shareholder value. However, in other cases, altruistic managers or managers who privately benefit from the positive attention arising from these activities may choose to make socially responsible investments even if they are not value enhancing. Given this backdrop, we investigate the various factors that motivate firm managers to make socially responsible investments. We find that larger firms, firms with greater free cash flow, and higher advertising outlays demonstrate higher levels of corporate social responsibility (CSR). We also find that companies with stronger institutional ownership are less likely to invest in CSR — which casts doubt on the argument that these investments are designed to promote shareholder value. Consistent with the literature that explores how CEO personal attributes influence corporate decision making, we find that female CEOs, younger CEOs, and managers who donate to both Republican and Democratic parties are significantly more likely to invest in CSR. This latter result suggests that CSR investments may not be driven solely for altruistic reasons, but instead may be part of a broader strategy to create goodwill and/or help maintain good political relations. Finally, we find a strong positive connection between the level of media scrutiny surrounding the firm and its CEO, and the level of CSR investment. This finding suggests that media attention helps induce firms to make socially responsible investments.     

Friends or foes? Target selection decisions of sovereign wealth funds and their consequences

This paper examines investment strategies of sovereign wealth funds (SWFs), their effect on target firm valuation, and how both of these are related to SWF transparency. We find that SWFs prefer large and poorly performing firms facing financial difficulties. Their investments have a positive effect on target firms' stock prices around the announcement date but no substantial effect on firm performance and governance in the long run. We also find that transparent SWFs are more likely to invest in financially constrained firms and have a greater impact on target firm value than opaque SWFs. Overall, SWFs are similar to passive institutional investors in their preference for target characteristics and in their effect on target performance, and SWF transparency influences SWFs' investment activities and their impact on target firm value.     

How Investment Opportunities Affect Optimal Capital Structure

This article addresses the question of how competition for investments among companies in a certain industry affects their capital structure. The authors develop a new modelling framework that simulates financial variables of a set of firms in a given sector, and uses the framework to analyze how such firms compete for new investments. The leverage of companies affects their flexibility to react to and take advantage of investment opportunities, and the authors show how such flexibility can be optimized to maximize the firm’s growth. As an illustration, they apply the model to a set of European airlines and global pharmaceutical companies. The novelty introduced by this paper is the explicit modelling of the interaction between several companies. The literature on optimal capital structure focuses on individual companies optimizing their capital structure in a world in which the actions of their competitors are exogenous. The authors’ results show how to incorporate the competitive position of the firm as well as the availability of investment opportunities into the capital structure decison.     

Implications for enterprise to adopt cleaner technology: From the perspective of energy market and commodity market

Business-related decision making seems more difficulty than ever before. Diffusion signals from different market make it difficult for policy makers to adopt clear strategy, and the lack of clear coping strategies will hinder stakeholders in the market from making strong investment decisions as early as possible. To cope with this problem, we propose an innovative model that can analyze production decisions and technology adoption of enterprises been faced with two coupled markets. With the help of this quantitative method, we answer the basic question of the investment path and technology adoption time in a class of enterprises, and further analyze which factors in the related markets have a more obvious impact on the decision. A novel feature of this work is that we characterize the connection mechanism of the two markets so that we can investigate the interaction between enterprises’ decisions and the markets’ signals. Our stochastic model allows for quite general dependence on energy fuel price and investment choice. Turning to the special Monte-Carlo based method, we can determine the optimal time to invest as well as the switching time. We applied this framework to an empirical case of heating technology on a highway, and found that both consumer preferences and energy prices have a significant impact on enterprise's investment strategy, but consumer preferences have a greater impact on the transition time for cleaner technologies. Also, the results have potentially important policy implications and can provide a rationale for supporting cleaner technologies.     

Optimal investment and production decisions and the value of the firm

We explore the effects of uncertainty on a firm that can respond by modifying its investment or production schedule (or both simultaneously) to variations in output price. Investment may increase capacity and/or reduce costs. We consider a firm with finite resources.Our model uses option theory instead of the more traditional net present value framework. One of the early papers using this approach is Brennan and Schwartz (1985) in which an investment project to extract a finite natural resource is valued. In that paper, the value of the firm is a function of two state variables, the finite resource to be extracted (output to be produced in the future) and the commodity spot price. In order to maximize firm value, the manager can respond by modifying one control variable, the production level. In our model we handle instead three state variables (spot price, resources, accumulated investment) and two control variables (production rate and investment rate), and solve numerically.We obtain both the value and the optimal policy of a firm that has investment projects that increase capacity and/or reduce costs and illustrate optimal policies as resources and available investments decrease over the life of the firm. Firms may start by only investing, then invest and produce, to end only producing.We thank Scott Wo, the referee and the editor for their comments and suggestions. Cortázar and Lowener acknowledge the financial support from FONDECYT and FONDER.     

High-speed rail transport valuation

In this paper, the optimal timing for investing in high-speed rail projects under uncertainty in relation to the utility provided to railway users was investigated. To accomplish this, a continuous time real options analysis framework using a stochastic demand model was developed to determine the optimal time to invest. Uncertainty upon investment expenditures was also added in an extended framework. The value of the option to defer and the investment opportunity value were also assessed.     

Authors’ Reply: Credit Standing and the Fair Value of Liabilities: A Critique - Discussion by Marsha Wallace

Abstract

As investment plays an increasingly important role in the insurance business, ruin analysis in the presence of stochastic interest (or stochastic return on investments) has become a key issue in modern risk theory, and the related results should be of interest to actuaries. Although the study of insurance risk models with stochastic interest has attracted a fair amount of attention in recent years, many significant ruin problems associated with these models remain to be investigated. In this paper we consider a risk process with stochastic interest in which the basic risk process is the classical risk process and the stochastic interest process (or the stochastic return-on-investmentgenerating process) is a compound Poisson process with positive drift. Within this framework, we first derive an integro-differential equation for the Gerber-Shiu expected discounted penalty function, and then obtain an exact solution to the equation. We also obtain closed-form expressions for the expected discounted penalty function in some special cases. Finally, we examine a lower bound for the ruin probability of the risk process.     

Does financing influence the sensitivity of cash and investment to asset tangibility?

Research shows that asset tangibility substantially impacts firms’ cash levels and investment. Using the deregulation of equity issuance in the U.S. as an exogenous shock to access to equity markets, we investigate the influence of financing on the dependence of cash and investment on asset tangibility. We show that financing dampens the sensitivity of cash and investment to asset tangibility, and promotes investment and firm growth. Our results suggest that greater access to financing allows financially constrained firms to invest in productive projects that may otherwise not be taken up. This provides evidence that public firms even in well-developed financial markets such as the U.S. benefit from financial deregulation that removes barriers to external financing, shedding light on the role of financial markets in fostering growth.     

Does religiosity influence venture capital investment decisions?

Theories on contextual behavior (e.g., social norm, self-identity, and legitimacy theories) suggest that the religiosity of the geographical area in which an organization operates influences its behavior. Using a sample of 91,020 VC investments in the U.S., we study whether religiosity influences VC investment decisions. Based on prior literature that finds a positive relation between religiosity and risk aversion, we posit that VCs located in more religious counties make less risky investments. We find that VCs located in more religious areas are more likely to be involved in staging and syndication and have a greater propensity to invest in later and expansion stages of portfolio companies. Taken together, our results suggest that VCs located in religious counties tend to be more risk averse.     

The interaction among disclosures,competition, and an internal control problem

This paper studies the effect of an internal control problem on a firm's disclosure policy where firms compete in non-cooperative investment game, with each firm deciding to invest in its current technology or to invest in a non-proprietary innovation. By adopting the innovation, a firm earns higher revenues at the expense of its non-adopting rival. Each principal decides on a disclosure policy for its firm that entails releasing an agent's internal cost report of the firm's current technology to the rival firm. The agent has private information about the current technology's cost and an incentive to overstate the cost. An effect of disclosures is to increase coordination between the firms, which, without a control problem, increases firm profits. However, under the same conditions that disclosures were beneficial without the control problem, disclosures may be harmful to the principal with the control problem because increased coordination between the firms allows the agent to earn higher rents. Competition substitutes for commitment to an investment policy that limits the agent's rents and this disciplining role of competition is diminished with disclosures.     

Determinants of individual investment decisions in investment‐based crowdfunding

We investigate determinants of investment decisions in investment‐based (equity and bond) crowdfunding campaigns, using a novel investment‐, investor‐ and campaign‐level database, where equity refers to investments in entrepreneurial start‐ups and bonds to large real estate projects. We find that investors who have higher social interactions invest more. Social interactions are important in an equity crowdfunding context but do not affect participation in bond investments. This is consistent with the view that investors' social networks help reduce information asymmetry. Women invest less in the riskiest (equity) investments but more in safer ones (bonds). These findings are better explained by differences in risk aversion than differences in overconfidence between men and women. Overall, the findings contribute to the understanding of how investment‐based crowdfunding can be a viable source of entrepreneurial finance and how entrepreneurs' campaign decisions affect investor participation in this new form of entrepreneurial finance.     

Portfolio preferences of foreign institutional investors

This paper examines the investment allocation choices of actively-managed US mutual funds in emerging market equities after the market crises of the 1990s. We analyze both country- and firm-level disclosure and institutional policies that influence mutual funds’ allocation choices relative to major stock market indices. At the country level, we find that US funds invest more in open emerging markets with stronger accounting standards, shareholder rights, and legal frameworks. At the firm level, US funds are found to invest more in firms that adopt discretionary policies such as greater accounting transparency and the issuance of an ADR. Our results suggest that steps can be taken both at the country and the firm level to create an environment conducive to foreign institutional investment.     

杠杆率变动、固定资产投资与研发活动——兼论金融赋能高质量发展

本文通过构建一个包含企业固定资产投资与研发投资的理论模型,分析得出企业杠杆率变动与投资行为的非线性关系。实证结果表明,低杠杆下,杠杆率的增大会使企业增加固定资产和研发投资的规模。对于财务柔性更强、发展前景更好的企业,杠杆率的提升能够增大此类企业的研发投入占比,即企业开展更多能够提升技术水平的研发活动。进一步研究发现,短期杠杆与商业信用杠杆的提升有助于财务柔性较好的企业提高研发投资占比,而对于发展前景不佳的僵尸企业,长期杠杆和银行杠杆的提升反而会使其扩大固定资产投资,加剧产能过剩问题。本文的政策含义在于,要在保持宏观杠杆率基本稳定的前提下,引导金融资源更多投入到创新型经济上,给予优质及前景较好的企业一定杠杆率调整空间和自由度,使其能够更好地利用社会资金,激励其开展研发活动,促进金融更好地服务实体经济,赋能高质量发展。     

Valuing an Early‐Stage Biotechnology Investment as a Rainbow Option

In an article published in this journal in 2003, Richard Shockley and three of his students presented a detailed valuation of an early‐stage biotechnology investment using a binomial lattice option pricing model. The article demonstrates how investments with multiple stages can be treated as “compound sequential options”—that is, as series of options in which investments in one option provide the opportunity to invest in the next in the series. In this article, the author uses the same business case analyzed by Shockley et al. to demonstrate how to value this early‐stage biotechnology investment by separately modeling the two types of risks: technology and product market. An option that has two distinct kinds of risk that develop differently over time is known as a “rainbow option.” The key adjustment to the option pricing model required to value such an option is that, instead of the standard binomial option pricing model with two outcomes at each point in time, the author uses a “quadranomial” option pricing model with four outcomes at each point in time. By distinguishing technology risks from product market risks and allowing them to develop differently over time, the author's analysis leads to a very different valuation and, indeed, a different decision about the initial investment than the one produced by Shockley's model.     

Empirical Evidence of Risk Shifting in Financially Distressed Firms

This paper provides evidence of risk‐shifting behavior in the investment decisions of financially distressed firms. Using a real options framework, I show that shareholders' risk‐shifting incentives can reverse the expected negative relation between volatility and investment. I test two hypotheses that are consistent with risk‐shifting behavior: (i) volatility has a positive effect on distressed firms' investment; (ii) investments of distressed firms generate less value during times of high uncertainty. Empirical evidence using 40 years of data supports both hypotheses. I further evaluate the effect of various firm characteristics on risk shifting, and estimate the costs of the investment distortion.     

Taxes, M-M Propositions and Government's Implicit Cost of Capital in Investment Projects in the Private Sector

The corporate tax claim of the government is internalised in the analysis of the corporation's capital structure. In this framework the M-M Propositions are rederived. In the proposed approach, the current value of the firm is calculated on a before-tax basis, and is equal to the sum of present values of equity, debt, and government claim. An enhanced M-M model is derived, which is more representative of modern financial realities, and has significant implications for the practice of financial analysis. The paper highlights the potential conflict of interest among the different claimholders in making an investment decision. The model presented here allows us to analyse the tradeoffs among various policies available to the government to encourage investments to their socially optimal level.     

Information Asymmetry about Investment Risk and Financing Choice

Though it is generally accepted that information asymmetry has an impact on capital structure policy, the nature of the information asymmetry is not well understood. Recent theoretical work and empirical evidence suggests that financing choice depends upon the information asymmetry associated with the investment risk of the particular use of proceeds. Consistent with this view, using the sources and uses of funds framework, we find that equity is used to fund projects with greater information asymmetry about their risk such as research and development expenditure, while debt is used to fund investments with lower information asymmetry about their risk such as liquidity enhancement.