正规金融发展、非正规金融发展对城乡收入差距的影响——基于地级市层面数据的分位数回归分析

在理论剖析正规金融发展、非正规金融发展对城乡收入差距影响的基础上,基于2000—2013年中国225个地级市的面板数据,分别利用分位数回归方法和OLS回归方法对之进行了实证分析。结果显示:正规金融发展和非正规金融发展会影响城乡收入差距,就业结构、固定资产投资、城镇化水平和教育发展水平等也对城乡收入差距产生影响;在不同的分位点,正规金融发展、非正规金融发展对城乡收入差距的影响不同,而就业结构、固定资产投资、城镇化水平和教育发展水平等的影响未发生变化。     

The absolute health income hypothesis revisited: a semiparametric quantile regression approach

This paper uses the 1998–1999 Canadian National Population Health Survey data to examine the health–income relationship that underlies the absolute income hypothesis. To allow for nonlinearity and data heterogeneity, we use a partially linear semiparametric quantile regression model. The “absolute income hypothesis” is partially true; the negative aging effects appear more pronounced for the ill-healthy population than for the healthy population and when annual income is below 40,000 Canadian dollars. We would like to thank two anonymous referees and Baldev Raj, the editor, for useful and constructive comments and suggestions. The views expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of Statistics Canada. Both authors would also like to acknowledge financial support from SSHRC of Canada.     

The return to education and its distribution in urban China: evidence from quantile regression analysis

Based on Chinese Households Income Projects in 2002, this paper discusses the relationship between the return to education and the quantiles of income distribution. The findings in this paper show that the return to education is lower for the higher quantiles, while the estimators also depend on the choice of control variables. The methodology of the quantile regression might be helpful in adjusting the ability bias in the estimation on return to education. The policy implications of the paper highlight the impact of the education expansion in boosting the income growth for those in lower quantiles.     

Revisiting growth empirics based on IV panel quantile regression

We analyse the well-known issue of economic growth convergence using quantile regression. Most previous studies have used a least squares (LS) method or variation, which focuses on the issue only at the mean of the growth rate. Therefore, such results cannot provide a satisfactory answer to what can happen if the growth rate is far from the conditional mean level. For example, we consider the following question: do we still have economic growth convergence or is the convergence speed changed in a low growth period such as the ‘Great Recession,’ that started in 2008? We propose using instrumental variable panel quantile regression to answer this question. Our empirical findings demonstrate that economic growth convergence occurs at all quantiles over the entire conditional distribution, but that the convergence speed does depend on quantiles; the convergence speed is much higher when the GDP growth rate is at either high or low quantiles.     

基于分位数回归的农村普惠金融发展增收效应研究——以广西40个县为例

农村普惠金融对改善农村地区经济、提高农村居民收入水平有重要作用.本文首先构建农村普惠金融发展指数的指标体系,并以广西40个县为例,对其在2013—2017年的普惠金融发展进行测度及聚类分析.在聚类结果的基础上,采用面板回归模型对普惠金融发展的增收效应进行分析;同时,考虑到不同地区的农村居民收入水平存在差异,进一步采用分位数回归模型对增收效应进行研究.结果发现:农村普惠金融发展对农村居民收入增长具有正向效应,但对收入层次较低的农村居民而言,普惠金融发展不利于收入的提高.鉴于此,本文建议进一步优化农村普惠金融的发展环境,推动不同农村地区普惠金融协同发展,切实增强农村普惠金融发展的增收效应.     

最低工资标准的就业效应研究--基于30个省际面板数据的实证分析

通过构建一个由最低工资标准等因素共同决定的劳动力就业函数,从理论层面分析最低工资标准提升等因素对城镇劳动力就业的影响。同时基于中国2004_2011年的省际面板数据,引入技术进步、城镇化、老年抚养比等指标,运用面板分位数回归方法进行实证分析。综合比较来看：现阶段最低工资标准提升与城镇劳动力就业呈显著正相关关系,而技术进步对城镇劳动力就业的影响不能一概而论,具有不确定性。其他控制变量如城镇化发展有利于提高城镇劳动力就业,而老年抚养比、对外开放度的提高却与城镇劳动力就业呈负相关关系。其对策含义为：要充分考虑相关因素对劳动力就业的冲击,理清不同地区、不同企业类型以及不同性别可能存在的有差异的劳动力就业效应,主张通过就业政策和劳动力市场制度的进一步完善,实现劳动力更加充分的就业。     

Book Reviews

Béla Greskovits, The Political Economy of Protest and Patience. East European and Latin American Transformations Compared
Roman Frydman, Kenneth Murphy and Andrzej Rapaczynski, Capitalism with a Comrade's Face
Lorand Ambrus-Lakatos and Mark Schaffer (eds), Fiscal Policy in Transition. Forum Report of the Economic Policy initiative No. 3
Michael Ellman and Vladimir Kontorovich (eds), The Destruction of the Soviet Economic System. An Insider' History
Louis Emmerij (ed.), Economic and Social Development into the XXI Century     

The gender pay gap in Russia during the transition, 1992-96

This paper explores the link between rising wage dispersion in Russia over the transitional period and the gender pay gap. The work of Blau and Kahn (1996) emphasized a role for 'wage structure' in the determination of the gender pay gap, although some interpretational issues concerning their methodology have been raised recently by Suen (1997). The unadjusted gender pay gap between 1992 and 1996 exhibited some degree of stability, but the analysis presented identified increased wage dispersion as a modest agent for the widening of the gap in Russia. Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) estimates for an equation pooling observations from both gender groups, registered no statistical difference in the mean ceteris paribus gender pay gap between the two years. To complement the mean regression approach, quantile regression procedures were also employed. Although the median regression provided evidence of a statistically significant temporal increase in the gender pay gap, this finding was not supported at other chosen quantiles of the wage distribution. This result was taken to highlight the possible sensitivity of the OLS procedure.
JEL classification: J16, J31, P23.     

Unconditional quantile regressions,wage growth and inequality in the Philippines, 2001–2006: the contribution of covariates

I implement a two-stage procedure to estimate the components of real wage change in the Philippines along the wage distribution from 2001 to 2006, as well as the contribution of individual covariates to each component. The methodology is based on Re-centred Influence Functions (RIF), as suggested by Firpo et al. (2009). The advantage of this methodology is that it not only decomposes the unconditional wage change at any quantile of the wage distribution, but also allows the characterization of the contribution of any single covariate on each component. I find that real earnings of males in the Philippines declined and the decline along the earnings distribution is generally higher at higher deciles for all males and higher at lower deciles in Manila. Decomposition results are driven by the wage structure component, while the composition effect is small and generally positive with education as the main contributor. Within the wage structure effect, the main determinants are associated with changes in the rewards of experience and occupation, along with residual change (change in intercepts).     

我国收入差距与经济增长的面板协整与因果关系研究

笔者运用最近发展起来的面板协整技术,分析了我国收入差距与经济增长的关系。研究结果表明,全国以及东中西部的收入差距与经济增长之间存在长期的稳定关系;尽管对于全国和东部地区,收入差距和经济增长的因果关系并不明显,但对于中部和西部,收入差距和经济增长之间存在长期和短期的因果关系。