欧盟碳税政策的经验与启示

随着全球气候变化带来的恶劣影响进一步加剧,减缓和适应气候变化已成为世界各国所关心的重要议题。越来越多的国家采取了各种温室气体减排措施,征收碳税就是其中之一。目前欧盟一些国家已实行碳税,并取得了一定的效果。以芬兰、丹麦、瑞典和英国为例,对这四个国家的碳税情况进行比较分析,以期对中国有所启示。     

Time Preference, Stock Externalities and Strategic Reactions

This paper examines the relationship between the rateof time preference and strategic reactions in dealing with climate change caused by anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Treating climate change as stock externalities, the RICE model (Nordhaus and Yang [1996]) is employed in this paper for simulation studies. The simulation results show that when regions' rate of time preference in evaluating climatechange is sufficiently low, the paths of efficient GHGemission reduction measurement and the inefficient Nash equilibrium outcome are close. The paper also provides general interpretations of such phenomena. Finally, the implications of a low rate of time preference on GHG emission reduction policies are discussed.     

Harmonization of carbon taxes in international climate agreements

The use of some kind of carbon tax is often proposed as part of an international climate policy. One possibility could be an international climate agreement requiring a harmonization of domestic carbon taxes. It is shown that there are several practical difficulties with such an agreement, and that it therefore is unlikely that CO₂ emissions will be allocated efficiently between countries with this type of agreement. Alternative types of agreements include an international carbon tax, in which the governments of the participating countries pay a tax, in proportion to their CO₂ emissions, to an international agency. A very similar arrangement would be to introduce a system of emission permits which are internationally tradeable between governments. Under quite general conditions, agreements of these two types can be designed so that they are both efficient and satisfy whatever distributional objectives one might have. Under both of these systems, the choice of domestic policies could be left to the individual countries. A domestic carbon tax is an obvious policy response from a country participating in an agreement of this type.Significant parts of the paper are based on research at CICERO (Center for International Climate and Energy Research, Oslo) and the Centre for Research in Economics and Business Administration (SNF), Oslo. The paper draws heavily on a related paper (Hoel, 1992a) which was prepared for Workshop on Fee and Charge Systems for Reducing Greenhouse Gases, OECD, Paris, November 5–6, 1991. I am grateful to an anonymous referee for useful comments on an earlier version of the paper.     

计划生育管理体制改革的基本问题

我国的计划生育管理体制在上世纪80年代初形成独立部门以来,进行了多次与体制有关的改革,但由于始终未在生育政策调整这个核心问题上取得突破,所进行的实际上多是改进,而不是改革。要进行真正意义上的改革,必须首先明确改革的基本问题,即改革的基础、核心和方向。     

计划生育奖励扶助水平差异对生育水平的影响——基于全国30个省区数据的定量分析

采用固定效果模型分析方法,实证考察我国省区层面不同水平的计划生育奖励扶助政策对生育水平(育龄妇女避孕率、计划生育率)的影响效果是否存在差异。农村部分计生家庭奖励金、城镇独生子女父母退休奖励金以及在社会保障、生产扶持、利益分配、扶贫开发等方面优先优惠水平的地区差异性会对育龄妇女避孕率产生明显不同的影响效果,另外,模型估计结果中仅发现在计生家庭参加社会保险方面给予不同力度的优先优惠对计划生育率的作用效果产生了显著差异。生育利益导向政策并非标准越高、项目越多对群众生育行为的影响越大。     

Corrective Taxes under Oligopoly with Inter-Firm Externalities

Pollution externalities between polluters should be taken into account in the design of corrective taxes. When the externalities are substantial and/or the number of polluters is large, the effluent levies on these firms do not necessarily result in a deadweight loss. Consequently, the second-best tax exceeds the marginal social cost of pollution. A more general rule is that the tax rate should be greater than the marginal social cost of pollution if and only if a marginal increase in the tax rate results in opposite effects on the changes of equilibrium emission level and output.     

人口和计划生育利益导向政策研究:回顾与前瞻

人口和计划生育利益导向政策的发展经历了从最初简单的节育手术等节制生育的服务措施,到明确将利益导向政策上升到国家制度层面,再到全面建设和发展利益导向政策体系的几个重要阶段。随着计划生育政策目标由降低生育率向稳定低生育水平、统筹解决人口问题、实现人口长期均衡发展的转变,利益导向方法、手段与措施的不断丰富与拓展,人口和计划生育利益导向政策也面临着人口和计划生育利益导向政策的科学评估、普惠政策与利益导向政策协调机制的建立与完善、人口长期均衡发展背景下计划生育利益导向政策走向的明确等-系列新的研究课题。     

生育和经济社会的协调发展

有三个相关的生育问题需要作些深入研究,第一个是究竟我国当前生育是在什么水平?第二个是假如总和生育率的水平是1.8,这个水平能在今后三十年保持不变吗?第三个是假如未来三十年总和生育率过高或过低于1.8是不是会不利于人口与经济社会的协调发展?第一个问题应该可以用现有的但没有发表的生育数据作更深入分析和举办一次追踪调查去了解妇女生育的历史,追踪同样样本妇女的妊娠结果(活产、死产、流产)和出生儿童的性别。第二个问题的答案是否定的,因为世界上还没有一个国家能够不鼓励生育而能保持正在下降的出生水平。我国社会具备了生育水平继续下降的一切条件,特别是小家庭社会制度的普及更在促进生育水平下降。第三个问题用人口预测的方法比较未来不同生育水平对人口发展的影响,显示出不同预测的人口总数和年龄结构相差不大,无法得出过高和过低于1.8生育水平的未来人口会不利于人口与经济社会的协调发展的结论。     

Economic and Welfare Impacts of Climate Change on Developing Countries

The impact of global climate change on developing countries is analyzed using CGE-multimarket models for three archetype economies representing the poor cereal importing nations of Africa, Asia, and Latin America. The objective is to compare the effects of climate change on the macroeconomic performance, sectoral resource allocation, and household welfare across continents. Simulations help identify those underlying structural features of economies which are the primary determinants of differential impacts; these are suggestive of policy instruments to countervail undesirable effects. Results show that all these countries will potentially suffer income and production losses. However, Africa, with its low substitution possibilities between imported and domestic foods, fares worst in terms of income losses and the drop in consumption of low income households. Countervailing policies to mitigate negative effects should focus on integration in the international market and the production of food crops in Africa, and on the production of export crops in Latin America and Asia.     

关于税收筹划的若干思考

在我国，税收筹划逐步被有关人员所重视。纳税人要把握好税收筹划与偷税、避税的界限；纳税人可以从投资决策、融资决策和应纳的主要税种等方面进行税收筹划。     

Is there a case for carbon-based border tax adjustment? An applied general equilibrium analysis

Concern that unilateral Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emission reductions could foster carbon leakage and undermine the international competitiveness of domestic industry has led to growing calls for carbon-based Border-Tax Adjustments (BTAs). This article uses a global general equilibrium model to assess the economic effects of BTAs and comes to three main conclusions. First, BTAs can reduce carbon leakage if the coalition of countries taking action to reduce GHG emissions is small, because in this case leakage (while typically small) mainly occurs through international trade competitiveness losses rather than through declines in world fossil fuel prices. Second, even though the economic effects of BTAs vary somewhat depending on how they are implemented, their welfare impact is typically small, and slightly negative at the world level. Third, and perhaps more strikingly, BTAs do not necessarily curb the output losses incurred by the domestic Energy Intensive-Industries (EIIs) they are intended to protect in the first place. This is in part because EIIs in industrialized countries make important use of carbon-intensive intermediate inputs produced by EIIs in other geographical areas. Another, deeper explanation is that EIIs are ultimately more adversely affected by the existence of a carbon price itself than by any international competitiveness losses. These findings are shown to be robust to key model parameters, country coverage, targets and design features of BTAs.     

中国计划生育、人口发展与人权保护

国际社会对于中国计划生育领域的人权保护问题一直表示关注。分析了宪法中计划生育条款的含义,勾勒了我国计划生育法制体系的整体现状和发展趋势,指出我国在人口和计划生育领域进行人权保障工作已经达到的水平,并且有着进一步加强保障的良好趋势,但也存在不足,需要改进。对比人口领域国际人权标准,我国法制体系存在着一定差别,这种差别是基于不同的权利哲学造成的,对此我们既要加强对话,也要深入反思和改进我们的人权保障工作。     

中国未来不同生育水平下的经济增长后果比较研究

对中国未来90年不同生育水平下的经济增长后果进行了人口-经济动态模拟。在生育水平过低导致劳动力减少过快、人口老龄化过重、劳动负担加重的情况下,将使经济增长大大放缓;而较高的生育水平下,虽然经济增长速度略快,但是人均GDP增长速度慢于中方案生育水平下的经济增长,并且人均GDP水平也具有较大差异。完善当前生育政策,使生育水平稳定在1.9-2.0之间,如此人口在本世纪缓慢地减少也将有利于我国的经济增长和人均生活水平的提高。同时,在低生育水平下,依靠劳动增加和资本积累的粗放型经济增长将不复存在,经济发展方式转变是必然选择,技术创新、技术进步将是未来经济增长首要源泉。     

Military Planning in a Context of Complex Systems and Climate Change

The task of the U.S. military will continue to grow due to destruction from climate change across the globe. Climate change has caused the loss of military bases due to the ocean rising, and caused drought, more intense storms, and hunger, all of which has led to ethnic cleansing, mass migration, the destruction of institutions, and war in global perspective. Violence will continue to grow at a rate faster than the military’s ability to cope without a change in purposeful planning. Two concerns stressed at the week-long consortium, in which I recently participated at the U.S. Army War College, were (i) the substantial military burden due to climate change and (ii) the need to use the principles of complex systems in planning. Thus, the military needs to reach into areas devastated by climate change in order to reduce the likelihood of violence, and to use the correct understanding of complex systems principles for military planning to prevent war.