寿险保单贴现业务的发展与思考

保单贴现是一种投资者以折扣价买进即将到期的人寿保单,到期获得保险公司给付的保险金,同时解决了绝症患者和老年病患高额医疗费的需要,以及老年人养老费用的需要,这是一种多赢的投资工具,在国外发达国家已经存在多年,并发展越来越快;随着我国金融市场的开放和人们保险意识的加强,发达国家保单贴现业务值得我国借鉴,尽快推出这一创新的保险业务,以满足部分保单持有人提前变现保单的需求。     

寿险合同复效之立法变动及规范方向

保险合同的中止和复效是因人寿保险合同的保险费交付债务的特殊性而在保险法上的特别规定。其规定在强行性上属于半强性规范,是为保护危险团体成员的利益而设,保险人不能通过格式条款或其他方式予以排除适用,或作出较该规范更不利于危险团体成员利益的规定。为此,需要在立法上增加关于认知和判断半强性规范的效力性规定,同时,也需明确复效的具体条件,以消除保险人在实际上通过协商同意来操控处于效力停止状态的保险合同的命运,使危险团体成员的利益得以落实。     

Escrow accounts and the value of mortgage servicing contracts

This paper was funded by the Education Committee of the Mortgage Bankers Association. We thank Richard Peach and Sharon Caravan of the MBA, Mark Marple and John Wiseman of MGIC, and Edward Kane of Boston College for their helpful comments, and especially Susan Busch Analytics, Inc for her keen market insights and extensive computational assistance.     

Growth vs value investing: Persistence and time trend before and after COVID-19

Value investing and growth investing allow economic experts to adopt different investment strategies depending on their chosen specialty; the two investment types have been conditioned by the pandemic, changing the trend of investments and their results. This research aims to analyze the behavior and trends of the different investment strategies before and after the health crisis. We use methodologies based on fractional integration and cointegration to analyze the persistence and trend of the series and their relationship in the long run. We find that the shock is long-lived and causes a change in trend; however, we find no evidence of mean reversion. In addition, we use multivariate wavelet analysis to analyze the correlation between both time series, concluding that a growth-based investment strategy is more successful than a value-based investment strategy. We use neural networks to corroborate our results.     

新冠肺炎疫情与数字美元

<正>新冠肺炎疫情是当前全球面临的共同大考,各国正动员一切资源全力抗击疫情。疫情改变了人们生活的方方面面,许多正常时期似乎不那么重要的问题在疫情期间显得十分突出,其中就包括实物现金存在的携带病毒风险。它们从现场回收后要么直接销毁,要么必须经消毒处理后才能投放给客户。再加上社交隔离缘故,社会"去现金化"可能将进一步加速。现金数字化的必要性再一次成为业界关注的焦点。业内人士注意到,最近美国推出2万亿元经济刺激法案时,其初稿曾包含数字美元     

新冠肺炎疫情对我国农村经济的冲击与应对

新冠肺炎疫情具有传染性强、潜伏期长、发现性难、反复性高等特点,它在全球范围内蔓延,对全球社会经济秩序造成巨大影响,同时也不可避免地对我国原本就具有脆弱性的农村经济带来重大冲击。研究以江西省景德镇地区为实例,具体分析新冠肺炎疫情对我国农村经济的冲击路径以及具体冲击,从而提出新冠肺炎疫情下我国农村经济发展的应对举措,以期实现打赢脱贫攻坚战、全面建成小康社会的发展目标。     

国际结算和贸易融资新品多多

近两年国际经济和国际贸易形势不断变化,外贸企业和银行都受到一定影响．国际结算和贸易融资方式也有了新的发展。     

The Impact of COVID-19 on Share Prices in the UK*

The spread of COVID-19, and international measures to contain it, are having a major impact on economic activity in the UK. In this paper, we describe how this impact has varied across industries, using data on share prices of firms listed on the London Stock Exchange, and how well targeted government support for workers and companies is in light of this.     

银行视角下新冠疫情的冲击

2019年12月爆发的新冠肺炎疫情是中国经济运行的一个重要事件。目前疫情还在发展阶段,尚无法对总体经济影响进行精确评估。在对比分析2003年非典和当前疫情特点的基础上,我们对此次疫情的影响进行了粗略的分析。总体看,由于当前疫情面临的经济环境更加严峻,新冠病毒传染性更强,其对经济影响或大于非典时期,具体影响程度取决于疫情持续的时间。     

The impact of COVID-19 on the stock market crash risk in China

This study investigates the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the stock market crash risk in China. For this purpose, we first estimated the conditional skewness of the return distribution from a GARCH with skewness (GARCH-S) model as the proxy for the equity market crash risk of the Shanghai Stock Exchange. We then constructed a fear index for COVID-19 using data from the Baidu Index. Based on the findings, conditional skewness reacts negatively to daily growth in total confirmed cases, indicating that the pandemic increases stock market crash risk. Moreover, the fear sentiment exacerbates such risk, especially with regard to the impact of COVID-19. In other words, when the fear sentiment is high, the stock market crash risk is more strongly affected by the pandemic. Our evidence is robust for the number of daily deaths and global cases.     

Uniqueness of the fair premium for equity-linked life insurance contracts

An equity-linked life insurance contract combines an endowment life insurance and an investment strategy with a minimum guarantee. The benefit of this contract is determined by the guaranteed amount plus a bonus equal to a call on the portfolio. This bonus is similar to an Asian option. This article analyzes the relationship between the periodic insurance premium and its proportional share invested into the portfolio. For a general model of the financial risks we show the existence and uniqueness of an insurance premium. Furthermore the premium is strictly increasing and convex as a function of the share invested.     

Reporting on software development projects to senior managers and the board

It is contended that the scale of some in-house software projects (and the potential impact of project failure on an organization's operating capabilities and reputation) is such that the progress of those projects warrants the concentrated attention of senior managers (and possibly, the Board). The article utilizes a case study to illustrate how the adoption of key proposals outlined in the business information systems and software engineering literatures for the management of these projects may not necessarily be effective. This work augments Walker and Oliver (2005 ), which examined the options when accounting for software expenditure and recommended expensing for consistent treatment. This article then reviews the 'information needs' of senior managers, and presents a set of six reporting templates to facilitate the effective monitoring of progress of software projects (including post-migration expenditure on system enhancements and maintenance, and efforts to capture planned benefits). In some circumstances, the scale and risks associated with software development projects warrant oversight of these projects by the Board, possibly through the establishment of specialist 'IT governance' subcommittees. Accordingly, a model charter for an IT governance committee is presented in an appendix.     

新冠疫情对国际财产保险和再保险市场周期影响研究

本文借鉴霍华德·马克斯的行业周期研究方法,建构新冠疫情冲击下对国际财产保险和再保险行业影响的“基本面”“市场面”“心理面”三维框架,考察三者间相互影响、相互制约的复杂联系,找寻市场变化的驱动因素;同时通过对市场表现的历史回溯,找寻周期性规律,进而对后疫情时代的市场趋势做出预测.分析发现,国际财产保险、再保险市场在重大损...     

New development: ‘Healing at a distance’—telemedicine and COVID-19

ABSTRACT

In extreme circumstances such as pandemics, the presence of patients in hospital emergency departments becomes untenable. Healthcare professionals and organizations worldwide are leaning on technology as a crucial ally to deal with the COVID-19 outbreak. This article focuses on the positive impact of telemedicine for helping service provision, from enabling virtual triage to mitigating the negative psychological effects of social isolation. The authors discuss the challenges and opportunities to telemedicine practices.     

COVID-19 and the US Safety Net*

We examine trends in employment, earnings and incomes over the last two decades in the United States, and how the safety net has responded to changing fortunes, including the shutdown of the economy in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. The US safety net is a patchwork of different programmes providing in-kind as well as cash benefits, and it had many holes prior to the pandemic. In addition, few of the programmes are designed explicitly as automatic stabilisers. We show that the safety net response to employment losses in the COVID-19 pandemic largely consists only of increased support from unemployment insurance and food assistance programmes, an inadequate response compared with the magnitude of the downturn. We discuss options to reform social assistance in the United States to provide more robust income floors in times of economic downturns.     

新冠疫情对全球股指的冲击影响研究

本文研究全球11个主要股指在新冠疫情暴发初期的收益率与波动率及其长期记忆性变化情况.通过干预分析,研究发现多数股指收益率预期水平均受到新冠疫情的负向冲击,半数股指波动率预期水平受到疫情的正向冲击;通过长期记忆性突变检验,发现半数股指,尤其是美股的波动率在疫情暴发后出现显著的长期记忆性上升.各股指中,上证综指是唯一未出现波动明显加剧的股指,这从侧面体现出资本市场对中国本次抗疫工作的高度评价以及对中国疫情后经济快速复苏的信心.     

工银科技:在战“疫”中前行

疫情无情,科技有情。此次战“疫”,彰显了金融科技战线的温度,体现了科技向善的情怀。未来,工银科技将在不断思变中探索前行,在服务数字转型、智能升级、融合创新上贡献力量,进一步增强价值创造力和社会贡献度。席卷全球的疫情加深了人们对金融科技的认知,客观上既推动了金融科技行业发展,也对金融科技企业自身提出了更高的要求。疫情期间,工银科技有限公司(以下简称“工银科技”)努力发挥自身科技优势,践行大行科技担当,积极服务社会,同时也对疫情带来的改变进行澄澈思考,审视公司成立一年来的战略和经营策略,在思变与创新中进一步谋划未来发展。     

抗疫画卷 金融情怀——金融系统职工抗击新冠肺炎疫情书画作品选刊

新冠肺炎疫情突袭武汉,全国人民在党中央统一率领下,万众一心,众志成城,迅速打响了疫情防控的人民战争、总体战、阻击战。金融系统书画爱好者纷纷拿起手中的画笔,用书画形式为抗疫工作鼓劲加油。在短短的十几天里,《中国金融家》杂志征集到全国金融系统职工书画作品500多件,本期刊登若干幅作品,以艺术的方式向工作在抗疫一线的医务工作者、志愿者、捐赠者以及战斗在金融工作岗位的同志们致敬。     

COVID-19, policy interventions and credit: The Brazilian experience

The COVID-19 pandemic caused a global health and economic crisis to which governments responded with massive policy interventions. Using Brazil as a testing ground, we investigate the influence of the pandemic and ensuing policy interventions on local credit markets. First, we find that the pandemic has a significantly negative impact on local credit. Second, using a novel manually collected database on the staggered municipal government policy interventions, we show heterogenous effects of interventions: positive effects of soft interventions (e.g., social distancing and mass gathering restrictions) and late reopening, and negative effects of hard interventions (e.g., closure of non-essential services) and early reopening. Third, we find that state-owned banks grant more local credit than privately owned banks during the COVID-19 crisis but this difference is less pronounced than it was in the 2008 Financial Crisis. We confirm our results using pre-pandemic local political preference as instrument for policy interventions and orthogonalized policy intervention indicators, and in placebo tests.     

The Income and Consumption Effects of COVID-19 and the Role of Public Policy*

We provide empirical evidence on the labour market impacts of COVID-19 in the UK and assess the effectiveness of mitigation policies. We estimate the relationship between employment outcomes and occupational and industrial characteristics and assess the effects on consumption. Seventy per cent of households in the bottom fifth of the earnings distribution hold insufficient assets to maintain current spending for more than one week. We compare the effectiveness of the UK's Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme and of Economic Impact Payments in the US. The EIPs are more effective at mitigating consumption reductions as they have full coverage, depend on household structure and are higher for low-income workers.