日本对华直接投资的新发展、新特点及其对策

新世纪以来,日本对华直接投资经历了快速增加、下降徘徊和再增加的过程,出现了一些新的特点。目前,尽管日资企业在中国面临知识产权保护和法制不完善等方面的问题,撤出和迁移的企业有所增加,但日本企业继续看好中国经济前景特别是看好中国大市场的潜力,以中国为中心开展海外事业的基本姿态并未改变,出现了一些有利于对华直接投资发展的新动向。为此,我国应该有针对性地采取积极的政策措施,促使日本企业改变对华直接投资"雷声大雨点小"的现状,既扩大投资规模,又改善投资质量,全面提升日本对华直接投资的规模和档次。     

Determinants of Cross-Border Intellectual Property Rights Enforcement: The Role of Trade Sanctions

With growing trade in a global economy, the desire for trade protection becomes increasingly important. One aspect of trade protection that has risen to the forefront is the protection of intellectual property rights (IPR) across national borders. This article analyzes the determinants of U.S.-filed investigations for alleged IPR cross-border violations using the complete set of Section 337 investigations conducted by the U.S. International Trade Commission (USITC). By analyzing political, institutional, and economic variables in an industry-level model, we find evidence that investigations are more frequent in industries that face intense import competition among IPR-protected goods. In addition, greater technology access to U.S. patents by respondent firms is found to increase filings, especially in countries where corruption levels are higher.     

中印两国吸引跨国公司研发投资的潜力比较--基于计量模型的分析

本文在运用计量模型分析东道国经济规模、来自美国跨国公司的FDI存量等诸因素对美国跨国公司研发投资决策影响的基础上，对比了中印两国进一步吸收跨国公司研发投资的潜力，并就我国如何吸引跨国公司研发投资并使其溢出效应最大化提出相应建议。     

The effect of intellectual property rights on international trade and investment

The Effect of Intellectual Property Rights on International Trade and Investment. — The widespread debate regarding extended recognition of intellectual property rights across borders has not been matched by empirical investigation regarding the effect of such international recognition of intellectual property as exists in the status quo. In this paper, the effects of membership in intellectual property treaties is investigated in the context of U.S. exports, foreign affiliate sales, and flows of royalties and license fees. Membership in intellectual property treaties increases the flows of payments and receipts for intellectual property as long as domestic patent protection is sufficiently strong. U.S. parents export more to subsidiaries in countries which do not adhere to such treaties, but their impact on arms’-length exports and foreign investment is minimal.     

Can foreign direct investment promote BIT signing?

Compared to the vast number of previous studies on the impact of bilateral investment treaties (BITs) on Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), this paper empirically analyses how previous FDI affects BIT signing by using annual data covering 258 countries for the period 2002–2012. We find that the likelihood of signing BITs between two countries is higher when the country-pair has a larger sum of FDI stock and a larger FDI difference, and this effect is more pronounced in middle- and low-income countries than high-income countries. Further research finds that the institutional gap is an important factor that can enhance the positive impact of FDI stock/ FDI difference on the signing of BITs. The contribution of this research lies in providing a benchmark for incorporating more economic variables into the understanding of the determinants of BIT signing. In particular, the role of FDI should be given more attention.     

Why is China so attractive for FDI? The role of exchange rates

This paper argues that China's exchange rate policy played a critical role in its FDI boom. Devaluation of the Yuan (Renminbi) and the policy of pegging the Yuan to the Dollar both improved China's competitiveness in attracting Foreign Direct Investment. Examining the hypothesis in the context of Japanese FDI for nine Chinese manufacturing sectors from 1981 to 2002, the empirical results show that the real exchange rate between the Yuan and Yen is one of the significant variables determining Japanese direct investment in China. The devaluation of the Yuan substantially enhanced inflows of direct investment from Japan, and the response of FDI to the change of the real exchange rate is elastic.     

最大债权国困境与人民币国际化关系研究

对外汇储备额居世界首位的中国而言,除美国国债外,并无其它合适的投资形式可以满足中国外汇储备管理要求,中国成为美国国债的最大持有国是一种无奈的选择。中国因此陷入了最大债权国困境,增持、减持左右为难。解决最大债权国困境的金融策略在于人民币国际化,跨境贸易人民币结算走出了正确一步,但需解决境外人民币供给与需求意愿的现实障碍,加快人民币国际化进程。     

美国年报风险披露的现状和启示

会计报表的风险披露在我国尚未形成专门的规范。文章通过对美国上市公司2002年度的年报进行风险披露的调查,比较了两国报表在披露内容和披露形式方面的差异,并对其原因进行了分析,提出了几种可能的对策。     

美国对华直接投资对中国技术进步和产业竞争力的影响

20世纪90年代以来美国对华投资发展迅速,投资规模不断扩大,在华子公司引进技术的水平也呈不断提高态势。从美国对华投资的特点来看,其主要集中在技术密集型和资本密集型产业。而且,美国对华投资以市场寻求型为主,研发当地化以适应国内市场的需求就成为其必然选择。本文将在简述美国对华投资企业技术特点的基础上,分析其对中国技术进步以及产业竞争力提升的影响,为中国在引资过程中趋利避害提供理论参考。     

What drives spatial clusters of entrepreneurship in China? Evidence from economic census data

Since Chinese government initiated economic reform in the late 1970s, entrepreneurship and private sectors have emerged gradually and played an increasingly important role in promoting economic growth. However, entrepreneurship is distributed unevenly in China. Using micro data from 2008 economic census and 2005 population census, this paper explains spatial clusters of entrepreneurship for both manufacturing and services. For both sectors, entrepreneurship (measured by new private firms) tends to emerge in places with more relevant upstream and downstream firms. Moreover, Chinitz's (1961) theories are also supported for manufacturing: small upstream and downstream firms seem to be more important for manufacturing entrepreneurship. For both sectors, entrepreneurship is positively related to city size, the share of young adults and the elderly population, and foreign direct investment. More migrants are also found to promote service entrepreneurship. Our paper is the first to consider both manufacturing and service entrepreneurship in China and should be of interest to both local and national policymakers who plan to encourage entrepreneurship.     

Chinese OFDI responses to the B&R initiative: Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment

Based on an exogenous quasi-natural experiment, combined with administrative data from International Trade Statistics and the China Global Investment Tracker database, this study uses a difference-in-differences approach to examine whether the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) can help alleviate the negative effect of political risks in host countries on Chinese outward foreign direct investment (OFDI). The empirical findings are as follows. a) When controlling for firm-level and country-level variables and various fixed effects, high-level international political cooperation under the BRI can considerably increase Chinese OFDI. b) Political risks in host countries significantly reduce Chinese investment and increase losses, and the BRI mainly stimulates investment through mechanisms that seek to reduce policy uncertainty and political risks in host countries for Chinese firms. c) By further considering the gain (or loss) status of Chinese investment projects, the study shows that the BRI has a limited role in reducing investment losses. The study also performs a series of robustness tests to eliminate the influence of firm heterogeneity, informal political interference, and random effects. The overall results are consistent with those of the quasi-experiment.     

Market Consequences of Earnings Management in Response to Security Regulations in China*

Under the 1996‐98 security regulations in China, the accounting rate of return on equity (ROE) has to be greater than 10 percent for three "consecutive" years for a firm to qualify for stock rights offers. Despite declining economic conditions during this period, the percentage of firms reporting ROE between 10 and 11 percent is about "three" times that for 1994‐95. This unique regulatory environment provides a natural experimental setting for the empirical assessment of earnings‐management behavior and its consequences. This study examines whether listed Chinese firms manage earnings to meet regulatory benchmarks and whether regulators and investors consider the quality of earnings in their respective regulatory and investment decisions. On the basis of a sample of listed Chinese firms from 1996 to 1998, we observe that managers execute transactions involving below‐the‐line items and use income‐increasing accounting accruals to meet regulatory ROE targets for stock rights offerings. The firms that apply for, but fail to receive, regulatory approval manage earnings more significantly than do firms that receive approval and pair‐matched control firms. Our market study also suggests that investors differentiate the quality of earnings and put less value on earnings suspected of a greater degree of management. Overall, our results imply that the regulatory bodies and investors to some extent make rational adjustments for the quality of earnings.     

A general equilibrium analysis of FDI growth in Chinese services sectors

This paper analyzes one of the features of the Chinese economic transition, namely, the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) accruing to advanced services sectors. To that aim we use an innovative computable general equilibrium (CGE) model that includes, in a multi-regional setting, foreign multinationals operating in monopolistic competition. The model is based on data that split the world economy in 2016 into 11 regions (China - US - EU27 - Great Britain -other advanced economies - India - Japan - South East Asia - Latin America - Middle East - Sub Saharan Africa) and 21 sectors. We provide quantitative evidence on several characteristics of the 21 sectors in China, EU27 and the US, as well as other data on the role of China in the global stage, including its evolution since 2004. Several scenarios focusing on the increase of FDI inflows in services, because of the reduction of its FDI barriers, are simulated deriving short and long run results. We find that the impact of more foreign multinationals in services is positive for China but smaller than the one that had been obtained in other previous studies on FDI in manufactures. This is due to the still limited role of services in the Chinese economy and to a crowding out effect that domestic firms experience after the entry of foreign multinationals. On the whole the impact is, however, slightly positive for China, because manufactures benefit from the entry of foreign services multinationals. The rest of regions are unaffected or benefit very slightly, due to the fact that services production is less export oriented and more devoted to private consumption than in the case of manufactures. However, their manufacturing sectors are slightly harmed by the stronger Chinese competition. Many of them manage to more than offset this latter trend through higher exports or FDI in services directed to China.     

Protection of trade for innovation: the roles of Northern and Southern Tariffs

Using a North–South trade model with innovation and imitation, we investigate the interaction of intellectual property rights (IPR) protection and trade protection. We show that unlike a Southern tariff, a Northern tariff supplements IPR protection and is not necessarily a beggar-thy-neighbor policy. The globally optimal Northern tariff increases as IPR protection in the North or the South decreases. Global welfare may rise as Northern tariff increases, but necessarily declines as Southern tariff increases. This suggests that pushing for freer trade in the South is more urgent than in the North in innovation-intensive sectors where IPR protections are weak in both regions.     

次贷危机后的中、美股市联动性分析

采用协整分析和向量自回归(VAR)模型,对上证综指和美国道指之间的联动性进行了实证研究。研究结果发现:在股权分置改革以后至金融危机发生以前,中、美两国股市存在联动关系;危机以后,中、美两国股市相对独立。从整体上看,截至目前为止中、美两国股市无显著的长期动态均衡关系,中国股市也无力引领美股。     

The Price of Being Foreign: Stock Market Penalties Associated with Accounting Irregularities for U.S.-Listed Foreign Firms

We examine the stock market consequences of disclosing accounting irregularities for U.S.-listed foreign firms. After controlling for the severity of the irregularity and other firm characteristics, we find that foreign firms experience significantly more negative short-window stock market reactions following irregularity announcements than do U.S. firms. Moreover, for a subsample of 64 irregularities of foreign firms that are listed on both a U.S. and home country stock exchange, we find evidence that restating firms' U.S. investors react more negatively to the same irregularity than their home country investors. This differential market reaction appears related to firm-specific information risks that are greater for foreign firms than U.S. firms. Collectively, consistent with the reputational bonding hypothesis in prior literature, our results suggest that accounting irregularities cause U.S. investors to reassess the information risk associated with foreign firms.     

The Impact of Multinational Presence on Domestic Investment: Firm‐Level Evidence from South Korea

In order to analyze the effects of foreign multinationals' presence on domestic firms' investment, we use a detailed firm level data set from South Korea for the 2006–2014 period. We combine it with the input‐output tables provided by the Bank of Korea to construct industry level measures of multinational presence in sectors that are horizontally and vertically linked, and estimate dynamic investment equations that are augmented with these foreign presence measures. We find a positive and significant effect of foreign presence in both horizontally and vertically linked industries on domestic firm's investment rate, with larger effects arising from multinational presence in the supplying sectors. Quantitatively, a 2 percentage point increase in the presence of multinational suppliers increases the domestic firm's investment rate by 3.24 percentage points. We also find that this effect is larger for small and medium firms, private firms, nonexporters, firms that are not part of a chaebol, and for firms in external finance dependent industries. A similar 2 percentage point increase in the foreign presence in downstream sectors increases the investment rate of domestic suppliers by 0.55 percentage points. This effect is larger if the domestic firm is part of a chaebol, or is in a less external finance dependent industry. Investment increase by 0.53 percentage points following a 2 percentage point increase in horizontal linkages.     

The Impact of Industry Characteristics and IPR Policy on Foreign Direct Investment

This paper investigates the interaction of industry characteristics and intellectual property rights (IPRs) on multinational firm behavior. The results suggest that firms in industries with high capital costs are more likely to maintain control over production knowledge in countries with less intellectual property protection by engaging in foreign direct investment (FDI). Moreover, when IPRs are strong, firms in industries with high investment in research and development (R&D) are more likely to enter a market by licensing to an unaffiliated host firm. JEL no. F23, C25, O34     

外资进入和我国企业的生产率：“溢出”抑或“挤出”效应

我国改革和开放是同时推进的，引进了众多外资企业来推动我国经济发展。那么，外资企业的进入是否有助于我国内资企业的成长？本文分析我国工业企业超大样本数据，探讨外资进入的影响，研究我国内资企业的生产率能否向效率前沿收敛。结果发现，我国不同类型的内资企业均存在效率前沿的收敛趋势，内外资企业生产率差距不断缩小。外资进入对我国内资企业的短期影响主要表现为溢出效应，但是对于同行业的其他外资企业呈现挤出效应，特别是其他独资外企。我们进一步发现外资进入的长期影响是挤出效应，但是对于国有企业和民营企业的影响却不尽相同。     

西部地区人力资本投资自生机制探讨

文章首先从劳动力质量、人力资本存量以及人力资本投资的角度考察了西部地区的人力资本现状,得出了西部地区人口文化素质低、人力资本存量落后于中东部和全国水平以及教育和健康投资水平低的结论,进一步从现代经济增长理论、人力资本理论和产权理论的角度对西部地区的人力资本自生机制进行了探讨,认为有必要建立起西部地区人力资本的自生机制,提出了培育西部地区人力资本自生机制的具体政策建议。