An N-dimensional generalization of the Amiti–Weinstein estimator

Amiti and Weinstein proposed an estimation framework to disentangle credit demand and supply shocks using matched bank-firm loan data. Here, we show that their estimator can be generalized to capture shocks arising in an arbitrary number of dimensions. Our algorithm permits empirical researchers to analyse multi-dimensional data sets using the Amiti–Weinstein framework. This may be beneficial both for studies on micro-level outcomes as well as for the literature on assessing the macroeconomic impact of idiosyncratic shocks. In an empirical application to a firm-product-country export data set, we highlight the usefulness of the generalized Amiti–Weinstein estimator, and we demonstrate the importance of considering additional dimensions when gauging the effect of granular shocks on aggregate fluctuations.     

Therapy conversion to biphasic insulin aspart 30 improves long-term outcomes and reduces the costs of type 2 diabetes in Saudi Arabia

Objective: An observational study in Saudi Arabia indicated that conversion to biphasic insulin aspart 30 (BIAsp 30) from human insulin (HI) was associated with improvement of glycaemic control.

Methods: A validated computer simulation model of diabetes was used to project long-term outcomes (such as quality-adjusted life expectancy and direct medical costs) based on patient characteristics and treatment effects observed in the Saudi Arabian PRESENT subgroup (n=598). Baseline prevalence of comorbidities was obtained from published sources. Primary research was performed in Riyadh and Jeddah to derive diabetes-related complication costs and patient management practices.

Results: Conversion to BIAsp 30 from HI was projected to increase life expectancy by 0.62 years (11.77 ± 0.20 vs. 11.15 ± 0.19 years) and quality-adjusted life expectancy by 0.96 quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) (7.03 ± 0.12 vs. 6.07 ± 0.11 QALYs). Direct medical cost savings of Saudi Arabian Riyals (SAR) 53,879 per patient were projected for conversion to BIAsp 30 therapy (SAR 84,761 ± 3102 vs. SAR 138,640 ± 4102 per patient). Cost savings were driven by lower costs of hypoglycaemia (SAR 286 vs. SAR 57,437 per patient), and lower costs of renal complications (SAR 18,848 vs. SAR 31,228) over patient lifetimes.

Conclusion: Conversion to BIAsp 30 from HI was projected to improve life expectancy and quality-adjusted life expectancy while reducing lifetime direct medical costs.     

世界通货紧缩趋势与中国的结构性通货紧缩

全球范围内的通货紧缩压力将长期存在,并将在世界经济衰退时明显地显现出来,世界经济将进入一个为期较长的低物价、低利率时期。中国从1998年开始出现温和的通货紧缩,结构性通货紧缩是中国通货紧缩的基本特征。     

我国经济周期波动率的成分分解及稳定性研究

随着世界经济周期波动的减缓,我国经济波动也呈现出稳定性趋势.文章通过建立具有货币政策干预的产品市场均衡模型,对我国实际产出波动率进行了成分分解,并将实际产出波动的来源归结为需求冲击、供给冲击和货币冲击的作用.通过这些经济冲击方差序列的度量,又对实际产出波动率进行了冲击方差序列的回归检验,发现我国需求冲击和货币冲击强度的逐渐平稳是经济周期波动率降低的主要原因,而供给冲击对实际产出波动率没有产生显著影响.因此,我国宏观经济调控仍然需要坚持需求管理的政策导向,以保持经济持续稳定增长.     

Estimating the household consumption function in Saudi Arabia: an error correction approach

ABSTRACT

We estimate a micro-founded life-cycle consumption model for Saudi Arabia over the period 1970–2017 using error correction model procedures. Dynamic adjustments are significant, and both income and wealth are found to have significant effects, with a long-run marginal propensity to consume out of the income of 0.95 and out of the wealth of 0.06. The sensitivity of consumption to income and wealth, as well as the estimated short-term effects of price and real interest rate, are consistent with the rapidly growing Saudi economy. By capturing the key determinants of the life-cycle model, our approach is useful for the design of macroeconomic policy. We estimate the impact of the recent VAT reform.     

Remittances and healthcare expenditure: Human capital investment or responses to shocks? Evidence from Peru

This paper estimates the effect of international remittances on healthcare expenditures, taking into account both the interdependence with other consumption goods and the effects of health shocks. More precisely, we assess whether the budget allocation decisions of remittance‐receiving households reveal different preferences to invest in health capital, even when the simultaneous effect that health shocks may have on the demand of remittances and on other types of nondurable expenditures is accounted for. Using data from the “Peruvian National Survey of Households,” we find that remittances have a positive impact on healthcare budget shares, net of the remittance‐related income effect and independently of the occurrance of a health shock. They also have a positive impact on housing and a negative one on other expenditure items, that is, clothing, transport, and education. Hence, our results indicate a “pure” tendency of remittance‐receiving households to devote larger shares of their budget to health capital investment, rather than to other types of consumption goods.     

总需求和总供给冲击对我国失业和产出动态关系的影响分析

在我国的失业产出关系中,短期内,总供给冲击是产出波动的主要来源,总需求冲击则是失业波动的主要来源,总需求冲击和总供给冲击共同破坏了产出失业之间反向变化关系,但是总需求冲击的破坏作用更多一些。在长期,总需求冲击对产出没有影响,总供给冲击对产出有显著的正的影响,总需求冲击在长期对失业没有影响,但总供给冲击在长期会对失业产生不利影响,即正的供给冲击的累积影响所带来的产出增加在长期使我国的失业率上升。     

中国多产品出口企业竞争策略识别研究

基于企业内产品间出口价格和出口金额之间的关系识别多产品出口企业竞争策略。结果发现,质量竞争策略和成本竞争策略均存在于我国多产品出口企业中,但是采取质量竞争策略的多产品出口企业在企业数量和企业绩效上都明显优于采取成本竞争策略的企业。行业层面识别结果表明,近60%的行业显著采取质量竞争策略,只有7.33%的行业显著采取成本竞争策略;结合行业属性发现,产业链上游行业、质量差异化程度低的行业倾向于采取成本竞争策略,产业链中下游行业、质量差异化程度高的行业倾向于采取质量竞争策略。     

人民币升值的逆传递效应：基于供给冲击和需求冲击的分析

基于供给冲击与需求冲击的研究视角,本文阐述了人民币升值的逆传递效应的传导机制。运用协整与向量误差修正模型,实证检验了人民币名义有效汇率与人民币对美元的双边名义汇率的逆传递效应。结果表明,无论在长期还是在短期,人民币升值都不具有通货紧缩效应,而是具有逆传递效应,并且名义有效汇率的逆传递效应强于双边名义汇率。     

从多元化到集中化：全球大型工业企业的经营战略演变

本文根据1980、1990和2000年的数据分析，发现在全球17个行业排名前12位的工业企业中，多元化：企业数量逐步减少，而集中化企业数量逐步上升。这种由美国企业主导的从多元化到集中化的战略变革，促使企业经营业务集中并获得市场份额的增长和竞争力的提升。这种战略演变源于追求绩效、集中于企业核心能力和简化企业组织的需要。同时全球化竞争以及机构股东的力量迫使多元化企业转向集中化经营。     

An analysis of the cost-effectiveness of switching from biphasic human insulin 30, insulin glargine,or neutral protamine Hagedorn to biphasic insulin aspart 30 in people with type 2 diabetes

Abstract

Aims:

The aim of this analysis was to assess the cost-effectiveness of switching from biphasic human insulin 30 (BHI), insulin glargine (IGlar), or neutral protamine Hagedorn (NPH) insulin (all?±?oral glucose-lowering drugs [OGLDs]) to biphasic insulin aspart 30 (BIAsp 30) in people with type 2 diabetes in India, Indonesia, and Saudi Arabia.

Methods:

The IMS CORE Diabetes Model was used to determine the clinical outcome, costs, and cost-effectiveness of switching from treatment with BHI, IGlar, or NPH to BIAsp 30 over a 30-year time horizon. A 1-year analysis was also performed based on quality-of-life data and treatment costs. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were expressed as a fraction of gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, and cost-effectiveness was defined as ICER <3-times GDP per capita.

Results:

Switching treatment from BHI, IGlar, or NPH to BIAsp 30 was associated with an increase in life expectancy of >0.7 years, reduction in all diabetes-related complications, and was considered as cost-effective or highly cost-effective in India, Indonesia, and Saudi Arabia (BHI to BIAsp 30, 0.26 in India, 1.25 in Indonesia, 0.01 in Saudi Arabia; IGlar to BIAsp 30, ?0.68 in India, ?0.21 in Saudi Arabia; NPH to BIAsp 30, 0.15 in India, ?0.07 in Saudi Arabia; GDP per head per annum/quality-adjusted life-year). Cost-effectiveness was maintained in the 1-year analyses.

Conclusions:

Switching from treatment with BHI, IGlar, or NPH to BIAsp 30 (all?±?OGLDs) was found to be cost-effective in India, Indonesia, and Saudi Arabia, both in the long and short term.     

小企业融资理论及实证研究综述

本综述主要围绕小企业融资需求、信贷配给及宏观经济政策冲击三方面的内容展开。严重的信息不对称以及所有者个人与企业的高度融合决定了小企业融资需求与传统理论之间存在着相当的差距 ,信贷配给问题在小企业当中表现突出。但也有观点认为 ,引入决定企业存活的真正因素———人力资本之后 ,新建企业并不存在信贷配给 ,这为相关政策的制定开启了新的思路。最后 ,由于小企业受宏观政策变化的影响较大 ,也需要引起有关部门的足够重视 ,以达到不同规模企业协调发展的目的     

核心高管特征与公司成长性关系研究——基于中国沪深两市上市公司数据的经验研究

本文以我国沪深两市2004—2006年的上市公司为样本,从核心高级管理人员的人力资本特征视角,对高管特征与上市公司成长性的关系进行了经验检验。本文发现,在其他条件不变的情况下,上市公司成长性与核心高管的平均年龄、平均任职时间显著相关,而与核心高管平均学历的相关性不显著。进一步的研究还表明,在国有控股公司和非国有控股公司中,核心高管特征与公司成长性的关系具有显著差异。本文的研究有助于深化认知人力资本特征在公司发展过程中的重要地位,对强化核心高管遴选、完善人力资源管理具有积极的借鉴意义。