Poverty, Inequality and Growth in Selected Middle East and North Africa Countries, 1980–2000

This paper uses crosscountry data and country-case studies to analyze trends in poverty, inequality and economic growth in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. Compared to other regions, the MENA region has a low incidence of poverty and income inequality. Two factors account for this situation: international migration/remittances and public sector (government) employment. Since the early 1980s international migration to the Persian Gulf and Europe has helped boost the incomes of the poor in the Middle East. At the same time, many MENA countries have used government employment as a means of keeping people employed and out of poverty. Regression analysis of crosscountry data shows that both of these factors have a statistically significant impact on reducing the level and depth of poverty in the MENA region.     

Determinants of Remittances: Recent Evidence Using Data on Internal Migrants in Vietnam*

The present paper examines the determinants of remittance behavior for Vietnam using data from the 2004 Vietnam Migration Survey on internal migrants. It considers how, among other things, the vulnerability of a migrant's life at the destination, their link to relatives back home, and the time spent at the destination affect remittances. The paper finds that migrants act as risk‐averse economic agents and send remittances back to the household of origin as part of an insurance exercise in the face of economic uncertainty. Remittances are also found to be driven by a migrant's labor market earnings level. The paper highlights the important role of remittances in providing an effective means of risk‐coping and mutual support within the family.     

Do International Remittances Affect Poverty in Africa?*

Abstract: International remittances flowing into developing countries are attracting increasing attention because of their rising volume and their impact on recipient countries. This paper uses a panel data set on poverty and international remittances for African countries to examine the impact of international remittances on poverty reduction in 33 African countries over the period 1990–2005. We find that international remittances—defined as the share of remittances in country GDP—reduce the level, depth, and severity of poverty in Africa. But the size of the poverty reduction depends on how poverty is being measured. After instrumenting for the possible endogeneity of international remittances, we find that a 10 percent increase in official international remittances as a share of GDP leads to a 2.9 percent decline in the poverty headcount or the share of people living in poverty. Also, the more sensitive poverty measures—the poverty gap (poverty depth) and squared poverty gap (poverty severity)—suggest that international remittances will have a similar impact on poverty reduction. The point estimates for the poverty gap and squared poverty gap suggest that a 10 percent increase in the share of international remittances will lead to a 2.9 percent and 2.8 percent decline, respectively, in the depth and severity of poverty in African countries. Regardless of the measure of poverty used as the dependent variable, income inequality (Gini index) has a positive and significant coefficient, indicating that greater inequality is associated with higher poverty in African countries, much in conformity with the literature. Similar results were obtained for trade openness. In the same vein, per capita income has a negative and significant effect on each measure of poverty used in the study. Our results also show that inflation rates positively and significantly affect poverty incidence, depth and severity in Africa. In all three poverty measures, the dummy variable for sub‐Saharan Africa is strongly positive, and strongly negative for North Africa. The policy implications of these results are discussed.     

Effects of remittances on food security in sub-Saharan Africa

The objective of this research was to analyze the effects of remittances on food security in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), while assessing the role of governance. The analyses covered a panel of 26 SSA countries over the period from 2002 to 2017. Based on the double least squares method, two main results were obtained. On the one hand, remittances have a positive effect on overall food security and on each of its dimensions in SSA. On the other hand, this positive effect of remittances on food security and its dimensions is increasingly important when the quality of governance improves.     

The case for social security in South Africa: An economic perspective

Sound economic arguments exist for social security in a market system, since it can promote efficiency and equity. Furthermore, social security can reduce the risks of economic insecurities caused by unemployment, poverty and the new international economic environment to individuals and society. For a developing country, South Africa has a relatively well-developed social security system. However, it cannot address all the needs without major fiscal adjustments. The most viable approach may be to target only the most vulnerable groups, although such an approach may be criticised from an equity perspective. An important limitation of the South African social security system is that many unemployed individuals go without coverage, which may contribute towards instability. It may be necessary to revisit public works programmes in conjunction with the private sector.     

Dietary Diversity,Food Security and Undernourishment: The Vietnamese Evidence*

As is widely known, Vietnam experienced a rise in living standards and a decline in expenditure poverty during the first half of the 1990s. This paper extends this knowledge by providing evidence on the Vietnamese experience of food security, undernourishment and poverty from the late 1990s to the early part of the new millennium. The results suggest that poor households did not experience increases in food consumption, calorie intake and dietary diversity of the same magnitude as non‐poor households. Nevertheless, Vietnam experienced impressive reductions in both calorie deprivation and expenditure poverty at the turn of the century. Non‐poor households, in particular, experienced spectacular increases in calorie intake and dietary diversity during the period 1997/1998–2004. This paper also reports regression results which point to the role of urbanization and improvement in education levels in promoting dietary diversity and nutrient intake. The present study finds evidence of sharp regional differences in calorie intake and calorie costs, which suggests that the authorities should set provincial poverty lines, contrary to the current practice adopted by Vietnam's General Statistical Office.     

Evaluating social protection programs in Tajikistan

At independence, Tajikistan inherited an extensive social protection system that included a range of cash and non-cash benefits. While the economy is well into its transition from a centrally planned to a market-oriented economy, its social welfare policies still adhere to the methods and approaches of the Soviet period. This is true for social protection, which has both social insurance and social assistance components, and for which benefits are effectively non-contributory in nature in that no contributions are collected from employees. In this paper, we examine the performance of the country's social protection system—essentially public transfers for the elderly and disabled—in terms of reducing poverty, with the aim of identifying its key problems. Since the government provides such public transfers mainly as pensions (i.e., old-age pension, disabled pension, and survivors pension), it merits an in-depth analysis of whether or not these transfer programs reach the intended beneficiaries; that is, how well do they target the intended beneficiaries? Using data from the Living Standards Measurement Survey conducted in 2007, we find that only 43% of poor households are receiving transfers from the government, while 33% of non-poor households receive transfers. This study argues for applying a targeted approach to public transfer programs, including non-contributory pension schemes aimed at the most vulnerable populations.     

Fiscal Decentralization and Poverty Alleviation in a Transitional Economy: The Case of Viet Nam

Intergovernmental fiscal arrangements may play an important role in ameliorating poverty in many countries. Successful poverty alleviation generally requires both ‘capacity improving’ and ‘safety net’ policies, and both types of policies may, to some extent, be implemented through, or affected by, intergovernmental transfers. From this perspective, we analyse the efficacy of intergovernmental fiscal arrangements in poverty alleviation in a transitional economy, Viet Nam. We argue that both general and specific transfers are needed for this purpose: the former to enable all provinces to provide a given basket of public services at a given tax-price by offsetting their revenue and cost disabilities and the latter to ensure that minimum levels of those public services provided by lower levels of government are targeted to the poor throughout the country.     

Workers' Remittances,Capital Inflows,and Economic Growth in Developing Asia and the Pacific

This paper examines the impact of remittances on economic growth, using developing countries in Asia and the Pacific as a case study. Using data for the period 1993–2013, our results show that remittances only generate negative and significant impacts on economic growth if they reach 10 percent of GDP or higher. A remittances‐to‐GDP ratio of below 10 percent could still impact growth negatively, but the effect is statistically insignificant. The present study finds some degree of substitutability between remittances and financial development. Foreign direct investment (FDI), but not other types of capital inflow, contributes significantly to economic growth. Other traditional growth engines, including education, trade openness, and domestic investment, are crucial in promoting growth in developing Asian and Pacific nations.     

Economic growth,inequality, and poverty in Vietnam

This study examines how poverty reduction has been associated with economic growth and inequality in Vietnam. It finds that although the speed of poverty reduction was lower in the 2000s than in the 1990s, economic growth was more pro‐poor in the latter period. During the 1993–98 period, expenditure inequality increased and the poverty reduction during this period was mainly caused by economic growth. During the 2004–08 period, however, expenditure inequality decreased, thereby contributing to poverty reduction. The poverty incidence declined by around 5 percentage points, of which expenditure growth and redistribution contributed 2.8 and 2.2 percentage points of poverty reduction, respectively.     

健康冲击、社会资本与农户经济脆弱性——基于“CHIP2013”数据的实证分析

健康人力资本在农村经济中发挥着重要作用,农户健康受损时,会通过"劳动效应"、"挤占效应"和"情感效应"影响其经济脆弱性,而社会资本作为一种非正式机制,在血缘、地缘与业缘关系的连接下,通过及时获取信息与资源等对农户经济产生影响。文章利用"中国家庭收入调查2013"数据实证分析了健康冲击和社会资本对农户经济脆弱性的影响及作用机制。通过倾向得分匹配（PSM）和处理效应模型解决内生偏误问题、建立中介效应模型后,回归结果显示：健康冲击会通过挤占效应和情感效应两条渠道机制对农户经济产生负向影响,社会资本分项指标则通过信任渠道机制对农户经济产生正向影响;男性户主更易因遭受健康冲击而陷入经济脆弱困境,处于劳动年龄的户主在利用社会资本缓解经济脆弱性方面更具优势;而社会资本在缓解健康冲击对农户经济脆弱性中的作用并不显著,一个可能的原因是在农村社会中,社会资本等非正式机制逐渐被正式医疗保障机制所替代。在稳健性检验中,构造基于预期贫困定义的贫困脆弱性指标（VEP）进行替换变量回归,进一步证实所得结论。文章的政策涵义在于,应加强对于农户健康风险的管理,并重新挖掘社会资本在农村经济发展中的作用,从而缓解经济脆弱性,阻断贫困。     

Trade openness and household welfare within a country: A microeconomic analysis of Vietnamese households

The positive effects of trade liberalisation on several dimensions of poverty have initiated studies of the trade–poverty relationship. Trade liberalisation accompanies institutional reforms that help to reduce institutional barriers against the poor. This study examines the impacts of trade openness and institutional reforms on rural household welfare at the provincial level through the analysis of the determinants of welfare of rural households in Vietnam. The study employs a model of micro-determinants of growth and tests it on the data from the Vietnam Household Living Standards Surveys (VHLSSs) of 2006 and 2010. What makes the study different from some other studies of the same vein is that it attempts to directly capture the institutional effect on welfare. The study finds that, in the provinces with high institutional reforms and trade openness, the welfare of rural households improved. Institutional reforms in Vietnam appeared to be sluggish in the late 2000s. In particular, both access to land and lower informal charges were the important determinants of welfare improvement over time. These findings suggest that Vietnam should maintain its development by accelerating the process of institutional reforms, thereby helping poor households to improve standards of living.     

Poverty measures and definitions

In this article an attempt is made to explain what poverty means and how it is measured. Absolute income measures are discussed with reference to England, America, Australia and South Africa. These encompass the poverty line, the social security administration measure, the Henderson poverty line, the South African poverty datum line and the poverty gap. Relative income measures of poverty used in England, America and Australia are described. Absolute measures of poverty, the income‐net worth approach, a definition that includes other resources and a balance sheet method are explained. Socio‐economic measures are dealt with. These include the sociological concept of poverty, socio‐economic status measures and the culture of poverty view. Other measures described are public dependency and residential measures, mortality measures, a normative measure and subjective poverty.     

Structure of Sectoral Decomposition of Aggregate Poverty Changes in Cameroon

Abstract: This paper reviews theoretical frameworks for sectoral decomposition and assesses the within‐ and between‐sector contributions to changes in aggregate poverty in Cameroon informed by the Shapley Value decomposition rule. Between 1984 and 1996 poverty remained a rural phenomenon in Cameroon. It became more widespread, deeper and severer in both rural and urban areas, but more so in urban than rural areas. While the within‐sector effects disproportionately accounted for the increase in poverty in the period 1984–96, the between‐sector contributions in both rural and semi‐urban areas played a mitigating role on the worse effects of the increase in poverty. These findings infer the potential positive feedback effects of migration such as remittances, and/or increases in rural consumption expenditure in the face of rural underemployment, as effective strategies used by migrants to lift their families and villages out of the worse effects of poverty. The implication of this interpretation is that decision‐makers need to better understand the factors that push or pull potential migrants. Rural–urban mobility could, therefore, be viewed as a strategy used by households to moderate the worse effects of poverty and a vector of shared growth. The implications for public policy, in terms of open unemployment and associated social and insecurity problems at the receiving end, point to the wisdom of addressing the push‐factors via targeting more in favour of rural areas.     

Remittances and child labour in Ghana: Does the gender of the household head matter?

This study investigates the effect of remittance income on child labour and the role of gender in Ghana. Data were sourced from the Ghana Living Standards Survey Round 6. In order to solve the issue of endogeneity, we adopt the instrumental variable approach. The study finds evidence that, irrespective of whoever is the head of the household, the total effect of remittances on child labour is negative. However, the negative effect is much higher for female-headed households. It is recommended that more mobile money transfer outlets be established and the cost of transferring money be reduced to the barest minimum so as to enable households to maximise the benefits of the remittances they receive. Furthermore, financial transfers should be given to female household heads upon the condition of school attendance by their children so as to reduce child labour.     

Lessons from the 2008 Financial Crisis: Policy Responses to External Shocks in Uruguay

The 2008 global economic crisis affected the Uruguayan economy through two main channels: collapse in global trade and drop in capital flows. In response to the crisis, the Uruguayan government increased public consumption and investment and expanded social benefits to unemployed workers. We apply a computable general equilibrium model linked to microsimulations to analyze the distributional impacts of these policies and assess their effectiveness. We find that an increase in public investment was the only policy effective in mitigating the negative impact of the crisis on extreme poverty. The other policies reinforced the negative impact of the crisis on the poor. All three policies are costly and have an important impact on macroeconomic variables and the structure of production and export, while they have only slight or negative results on poverty and household income. More focalized policies, such as direct cash transfers, might have better results in terms of cost‐benefit.     

Neighborhood Effects and Regional Poverty Traps in Rural China

The present paper investigates how neighborhood effects are connected to chronic poverty. We examine a large sample of groups of households and find that neighborhood effects are significant in a majority of groups, especially in the poorest groups. People living in poor communities tend to suffer from poverty over time. It is of theoretical and empirical importance to explore how neighborhood effects are interrelated with chronic poverty and the channels through which this occurs. Unlike other econometric analyses, we establish a multilevel econometric model to show that： （i） it is difficult for an individual living in a neighborhood with a high proportion of agricultural labor, low education levels, and poor transport and telecommunication infrastructure to escape from poverty traps; （ii） neighborhood effects dominate in poor communities; and （iii） although poverty is affected by group-level factors, individual factors still play a dominant role in regards to escaping poverty when income surpasses a threshold level Therefore, policy priority should be given to providing social protection and public services, especially in poor rural areas.     

Remittances and development: the impact of migration to South Africa on rural livelihoods in southern Zimbabwe

The development potential of remittances has not received much policy attention in the migrants' countries of origin. The Homelink facility established by the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe in May 2004 excludes undocumented migrants, who are unlikely to use formal channels to send their remittances back home, and studies on international migration from Zimbabwe to South Africa have neglected the role of remittances, especially from undocumented migrants. However, some countries have realised this potential and developed strategies to encourage the flow and investment of remittances, which can contribute significantly to poverty reduction and development. Without such regulations and policies, which require the collaboration of government, migrant groups, the local community, non-governmental organisations and other international organisations, migrant remittances will continue to be used mainly for consumption, with a very small proportion being invested in sustainable investment.     

The Poverty of Politics: How Income Redistribution Hurts the Poor

In spite of the significant research literature identifying a tradeoff between income redistribution and economic growth, massive public programs have been implemented to help the poor by transferring income to them. Since Lyndon Johnson's war on poverty began in 1964, over 3.5 trillion dollars have been transferred. However, the possibility that everyone, including the poor, may in fact be made worse off by the transfer has largely been ignored. With a simple algebraic model, the authors demonstrate that, over time, both high and low-income groups are harmed by redistribution. In addition, social mobility, as well as political concerns with relative poverty and international income redistribution increases the damage to all income groups produced by redistribution.     

The impact of cash transfers on household welfare in Namibia

Namibia has a long history of providing a universal and non-contributory old age pension, child grants using means testing and quasi-conditionalities, and other cash transfers. Multivariate analysis presented in this paper confirms that these transfers play an important role in alleviating poverty, especially for the very poor. The poverty-reducing effects of the child grants are likely to increase further as access is being rapidly expanded. However, the impact in terms of reducing Namibia's extremely high inequality is limited. The targeting of the cash transfers towards the poorest groups takes place through two main channels. For the child grant, targeting occurs as a result of the orphan status eligibility criteria, as orphans are over-represented in lower-income households. For the universal social pension, it appears that some of the relatively less poor do not receive it even if they are eligible. Means testing of child grants appears ineffective, even without considering administrative costs.