Determinants of Remittances: Recent Evidence Using Data on Internal Migrants in Vietnam*

The present paper examines the determinants of remittance behavior for Vietnam using data from the 2004 Vietnam Migration Survey on internal migrants. It considers how, among other things, the vulnerability of a migrant's life at the destination, their link to relatives back home, and the time spent at the destination affect remittances. The paper finds that migrants act as risk‐averse economic agents and send remittances back to the household of origin as part of an insurance exercise in the face of economic uncertainty. Remittances are also found to be driven by a migrant's labor market earnings level. The paper highlights the important role of remittances in providing an effective means of risk‐coping and mutual support within the family.     

外商直接投资对东道国国内投资的“挤入”与“挤出”效应——来自中国数据的经验证据

本文根据中国1979-2009年的数据,对FDI与中国国内投资之间的关系进行了分析。研究结果表明,FDI与国内投资之间存在着长期稳定的均衡关系;从长期来看,FDI对于国内投资具有一定的挤出效应;而在短期内,FDI对国内投资具有较强的挤入效应,国内投资对FDI也具有较强的挤入效应。     

Firm Efficiency in a Transitional Economy: Evidence from Vietnam

The paper examines efficiency performance of the non-state small and medium manufacturing industries in a transitional and developing economy. Using firm level data in Vietnam from 1996 and 2001, cross-sectional models are estimated using the stochastic frontier method. The results show a considerable variation in efficiency levels among firms and that a greater use of family labor and a metropolitan location are associated with improvement in technical efficiency. The results indicate few benefits from direct government financial and non-financial assistance to businesses.     

Exchange Rate Regime and Demand for Reserves: Evidence from Kenya,Mexico and Philippines

This paper empirically investigates the demand for international reserves (and foreign exchange reserves) during fixed and floating exchange rates periods in three developing countries: Kenya, Mexico and Philippines. Based on theoretical models, three factors are identified as important for the demand of international reserves and foreign reserves: average propensity to import, volume of imports and variability of reserves. The paper employs the cointegration methodology and error correction method to investigate the relationships. Cointegration tests results indicate a reliable long-run stationary relationship between the international reserves (and foreign exchange reserves) and the stated explanatory variables across countries and sub-periods of fixed and clean float. The error correction results indicate causality from the explanatory variables to the reserves during both the short and long run. This is true during both the fixed and the floating periods.

Workers' Remittances,Capital Inflows,and Economic Growth in Developing Asia and the Pacific

This paper examines the impact of remittances on economic growth, using developing countries in Asia and the Pacific as a case study. Using data for the period 1993–2013, our results show that remittances only generate negative and significant impacts on economic growth if they reach 10 percent of GDP or higher. A remittances‐to‐GDP ratio of below 10 percent could still impact growth negatively, but the effect is statistically insignificant. The present study finds some degree of substitutability between remittances and financial development. Foreign direct investment (FDI), but not other types of capital inflow, contributes significantly to economic growth. Other traditional growth engines, including education, trade openness, and domestic investment, are crucial in promoting growth in developing Asian and Pacific nations.     

Remittances and Competitiveness: The Case of the Philippines

The paper looks at the impact of migration and workers’ remittances on the competitiveness of the home economy. It extends existing research that concentrated on the exchange rate effects of remittances, the so-called Dutch disease effect, by adding labor market effects. The results show that the labor market effects of emigration and remittances have a significant impact on competitiveness that goes beyond the traditional exchange rate effect.     

Updating Poverty Maps without Panel Data: Evidence from Vietnam*

A household survey and a census can be combined to estimate a poverty map for small areas. Ideally, the survey and the census should be conducted in the same year. In several empirical applications, however, survey and census years can be different, which might make poverty estimates biased. Using data from the Vietnam Household Living Standard Survey 2002 and the 1999 Population and Housing Census, the present paper produces a 2002 poverty map for Vietnam and describes the biases when the survey and census years are not coincident. It is found that poverty estimates from the poverty mapping method taking into account the time difference between the survey and the census are quite close to survey‐based estimates, at least at the regional level.     

Does exchange rate volatility deter Japan-China trade? Evidence from pre- and post-exchange rate reform in China

This paper is an empirical investigation of the effect of RMB-JPY volatility on Japan-China trade with a special emphasis on the impacts of the reform of the RMB exchange rate regime implemented on July 21, 2005. We estimated two types of volatility measures (one based on the ARCH model and the other the usual standard deviation) utilizing daily data from Jan. 2002 through Dec. 2011 and examined both short-run and long-run effects of this volatility on exports of each country to the other with an ARDL approach. The results indicate that Japan's exports to China are not affected by the exchange rate volatility, but China's exports to Japan are negatively influenced during the reform period. Furthermore, the level of the exchange rate has no influence on Japanese exports, but it has a significant impact on Chinese exports. This asymmetric result may be due to differences in the depth of financial markets and in the maturity of exporters of the two countries.     

The impact of child labor on children's educational performance: Evidence from rural Vietnam

In 1998, nearly one-third of Vietnamese children engaged in non-housework labor supply, 95% of these working children residing in rural areas. This paper investigates the impact of child labor on children's educational outcomes in rural Vietnam using the 1998-Vietnam Living Standard Survey. The paper finds that child labor lowers children's academic performance and the negative impact is bigger for girls.     

越南农村土地制度革新:历程、特点及启示

本文分析了越南农村土地制度革新的演变历程,归纳出越南农村土地制度革新的三个特点:制度变迁的渐进性及其法律匹配、制度安排的弹性特征与分类处理、产权权能的物权属性与清晰界定。并以越南改革经验为借鉴,提出了在中国新一轮的思想解放中农村土地制度创新的若干启示和建议。     

How Japanese firms can weather endaka periods: Evidence from the transportation equipment industry

Japan has experienced several appreciation episodes. These appreciations may squeeze profit margins and lower export volumes. This paper investigates whether firms can weather appreciation periods by producing differentiated rather than commoditized products. To do this it investigates different sectors within the Japanese transportation equipment industry. Results from estimating pricing-to-market (PTM) coefficients indicate that firms producing differentiated products can pass-through more of exchange rate appreciations into higher foreign currency prices and thus better preserve their profit margins. Results from estimating trade elasticities are consistent with the PTM results and indicate that the automobile industry has exported much less than predicted after the yen depreciated in 2012. Finally, estimates of the stock market exposure across sectors indicates that the profitability of firms producing differentiated products is less exposed to appreciations. Producing differentiated, knowledge-intensive goods can thus help firms to survive endaka periods.     

Modeling the Dollarization: A Case Study for Cambodia,Laos, and Vietnam

Abstract

We model the dollarization of three transitional economies in south-east Asia: Cambodia, Laos, and Vietnam which have been experiencing the transition and reform process of the economy for the time period 1992–2007. Based on Rojas-Suarez (IMF Working Paper WP/92/33, 1992) work, we examine whether the holdings of US dollars depend on the effect of the expected rate of depreciation in market exchange rates as expected by the model. Also, we examine whether the effects are proportional to the degree of the dollarization of the economy. The empirical results present that there are positive effects (expected) of the expected rate of depreciation in market exchange rates on the holdings of US dollars. The coefficients are statistically significant only for Cambodia and Laos, not for Vietnam. The effect is strongest for Cambodia, and this may reflect the fact that Cambodia's dollarization is stronger than those of Laos and Vietnam.