The welfare implications of COVID-19 for fragile and conflict-affected regions

Understanding the ramifications of the COVID-19 pandemic for households' welfare in regions subject to fragility, conflict, and violence (FCV) is important to inform programs and policies in this context. Harmonized data from high-frequency phone surveys indicates that, at the onset of the pandemic, a higher fraction of respondents in FCV regions relative to non-FCV ones faced adverse household income changes and reported to have stopped working since the outbreak of the crisis. On top of that, households in FCV regions were far less likely to have received government assistance than those in non-FCV regions. These findings suggest that, at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, there was a widening of the preexisting economic gap between FCV and non-FCV regions, raising the recovery bar for the former.     

Evaluating the effectiveness of labor market interventions on reducing the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic

This paper evaluates whether different labor market policy interventions taken in response to the COVID-19 pandemic have been effective in reducing its adverse impacts. We construct a database covering 165 countries and 39 labor market interventions grouped into four pillars: stimulating the economy and jobs (pillar 1); supporting enterprises, employment, and incomes (pillar 2); protecting workers (pillar 3); and social dialogue (pillar 4). The results revealed that measures taken under pillars 1, 2, and 3 have reduced the impacts of the pandemic on economic growth; measures under pillar 4 were significantly associated with reducing its impacts on employment and those under pillar 2 with reducing its impacts on working hours.     

Mass gatherings contributed to early COVID-19 mortality: Evidence from US sports

Social distancing is important to slow the community spread of infectious disease, but it creates enormous economic and social cost. Thus, it is important to quantify the benefits of different measures. We study the ban of mass gatherings, an intervention with comparably low cost. We exploit exogenous variation in the number of National Basketball Association and National Hockey League games, which arises due to the leagues' predetermined schedules, and the sudden suspension of the 2019–2020 seasons. We find that, among clusters of counties that are adjacent to sports venues, each additional mass gathering increased the cumulative number of COVID-19 deaths by 10.3%.     

Examining SNAP and TANF caseload trends,responsiveness, and policies during the COVID-19 pandemic

Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) and Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) cases increased by 3.3 million between March and June 2020, their largest quarterly increase ever. During the pandemic, many states adopted a wide set of policies and procedures to facilitate program enrollment, retention, and eligibility. I track these policies and create a pandemic policy index measuring state generosity. States that adopted more generous policies experienced larger TANF and SNAP caseload growth, especially eligibility policies such as exempting TANF work requirements or SNAP P-EBT availability. Analyzing the caseload relationship to labor markets, caseloads were less responsive to unemployment rate changes during the pandemic relative to the pre-pandemic period.     

Housing affordability and responses during times of stress: A preliminary look during the COVID-19 pandemic

The global SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19 Pandemic has disrupted public health, economies, and housing markets since early 2020. The shock has called forth a number of policy responses, such as moratoria on foreclosures and evictions, attempts to regulate rents and prices, and a range of subsidies on both supply and demand sides. This paper reviews the state of housing markets and discusses the expected efficacy of alternative policy measures taken or contemplated. Recognizing the provisional nature of any paper written during a large and durable ongoing shock, suggestions for additional research are provided.     

On the economic impacts of COVID-19: A text mining literature analysis

The COVID-19 outbreak has affected everyday lives worldwide. As governments started to implement confinement and business closure measures, the economic impact was felt by entire societies immediately. The urgency of such a theme has led researchers to study the phenomenon. Accordingly, the purpose of this research is to provide the state of the art on relevant dimensions and hot topics of research to understand the economic impacts of COVID-19. In this survey, we conduct a text mining analysis of 301 articles published during 2020 which analyzed such economic impacts. By defining a set of relevant dimensions grounded on existing literature, we were able to extract a set of coherent topics that aggregate the collected articles, characterized by the predominance of a few sets of dimensions. We found that the impact on “financial markets” was widely studied, especially in relation to Asia. Next, we found a more diverse range of themes analyzed in Europe, from “government measures” to “macroeconomic variables.” We also discovered that America has not received the same degree of attention, and “institutions,” “Africa,” or “other pandemics” were studied less. We anticipate that future research will proliferate focusing on several themes, from environmental issues to the effectiveness of government measures.     

The COVID-19 Pandemic in a Monetary Schumpeterian Model

In this paper, following Blanchard and Fischer (1989), I investigate how the presence of the COVID-19 pandemic—the increase in the probability of death—may affect growth and welfare in a scale-invariant R&D-based Schumpeterian model. Without money, the increase in the probability of death has no effect on long-run growth and a negative effect on welfare. By contrast, when money is introduced via the cash-in-advance (CIA) constraint on consumption, the increase in the probability of death decreases long-run growth and welfare under elastic labor supply. Calibration shows that the quantitative effect of an increase in the probability of death on welfare is much larger compared to that on growth.     

Global models for a global pandemic: The impact of COVID-19 on small euro area economies

We analyse the COVID-19 pandemic shock on small open economies (SOEs) in the euro area in a unified modelling framework: the Euro Area and the Global Economy model. We find strong negative international spillovers affecting each of the modelled SOEs, stemming not only from the rest of the euro area, but also from the United States and the rest of the world. A lower bound on nominal interest rates in the euro area amplifies these spillovers, especially within the euro area. Furthermore, we find some positive spillovers from the fiscal measures implemented in the Euro area to combat the pandemic, including the new Next Generation EU instrument.     

Past Experiences,Personality Traits,and Risk Aversion: Evidence from Individual Risk Attitudes during the COVID-19 Pandemic

Individuals’ risk attitudes play an important role in economic decision making and policy evaluation, particularly in the midst of unprecedented uncertainty caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. We adopt a multiple-price-list elicitation method with real money incentives to measure precisely individuals’ risk attitudes at different stake levels and the extent to which they are affected by personal and social shocks following the COVID-19 outbreak in China. We find that subjects who had previously experienced negative personal shocks are more risk-averse at medium and large stakes but more risk loving at very small stakes. For our sample, COVID-19 has no significant impact on risk attitudes, as it is more likely to be regarded as a social shock. The result indicates that the impact of COVID-19 on individual risk attitudes is not as influential as expected, unless the individual’s personal life is affected directly.     

Framing of economic news and policy support during a pandemic: Evidence from a survey experiment

We examine how news outlets’ communication of macroeconomic information affects policy support during the COVID-19 crisis. In our survey experiment based on a representative sample from Germany, respondents are exposed to an expert forecast of GDP growth. Individuals either receive no information, the baseline forecast, or real-world media frames of the same forecast. We find that positive framing of economic growth increases policy support. This effect is stronger for respondents with more pessimistic macroeconomic expectations. Negatively framed economic news are perceived as more credible and hence less surprising in times of recession, not translating into political opinion.     

The sooner,the better: The economic impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions during the early stage of the COVID-19 pandemic

This paper estimates the economic impact of the non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) implemented by countries in Europe and Central Asia during the initial stages of the COVID-19 pandemic. The analysis relies on daily electricity consumption, nitrogen dioxide emission and mobility records to trace the economic disruptions caused by the pandemic and calibrate these measures to estimate the magnitude of the economic impact. To address the potential endogeneity in the introduction of NPIs, we instrument their stringency by the extent of a country's social ties to China. The results suggest that the NPIs led to a decline of about 10% in economic activity across the region. On average, countries that implemented non-pharmaceutical interventions in the early stages of the pandemic appear to have better short-term economic outcomes and lower cumulative mortality, compared with countries that imposed non-pharmaceutical interventions during the later stages of the pandemic. Moreover, there is evidence that COVID-19 mortality at the peak of the local outbreak has been lower in countries that acted earlier. In this sense, the results suggest that the sooner non-pharmaceutical interventions are implemented, the better are the economic and health outcomes.     

Perceived economic prospects during the early stage of COVID-19 breakout

How does a new epidemic affect individuals' expectations on economic prospects in the early stage of the breakout? We implemented an incentivized longitudinal online survey soon after the outbreak of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic in China to answer this question. Results show that fewer new confirmed COVID-19 cases significantly increase individuals' expectations on gross domestic product and consumer price index growth rates. Our finding provides evidence that at the early stage of an unfamiliar epidemic, containing the spread of the disease may help to maintain positive economic expectations among individuals.     

Quantitative Analysis of the COVID-19 Pandemic Shock to Household Consumption in China

We study the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic shock on household consumption in China. Using household survey data, we find that the proportion of liquidity-constrained households increases quickly, but the constraint levels vary across distinct groups. We build a heterogeneous agent life cycle incomplete market model to analyze the long-run and short-run effects of the pandemic shock. The quantitative results reveal a slow recovery of consumption due to three reasons: hiking unemployment rate, declining labor productivity, and worsening income stability. The hiking unemployment rate plays the key role in households’ consumption reduction since it simultaneously leads to a negative income effect and upsurging precautionary saving motives. Our paper highlights the importance of maintaining a stable labor market for faster recovery.     

The stock market and NO2 emissions effects of COVID-19 around the world

In this paper, we study the impact of the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic in estimated panel vector autoregression models for 92 countries. The large cross-section of countries allows us to shed light on the heterogeneity of the responses of stock markets and nitrogen dioxide emissions as high-frequency measures of economic activity. We quantify the effect of the number of infections and four dimensions of policy measures: (1) containment and closure, (2) movement restrictions, (3) economic support, and (4) adjustments of health systems. Our main findings show that a surprise increase in the number of infections triggers a drop in our two measures of economic activity. Propping up economic support measures, in contrast, raises stock returns and emissions and, thus, contributes to the economic recovery. We also document vast differences in the responses across subsets of countries and between the first and the second wave of infections.     

新冠肺炎疫情冲击下企业生存韧性研究——来自中国上市公司的证据

新冠肺炎疫情冲击下如何识别、测度和提升微观企业生存韧性,是及时应对突发事件和推动经济高质量发展面临的热点问题。本文基于2018-2021年中国沪深A股上市公司数据,将疫情冲击下企业生存指标降幅与恢复增长所需时长作为企业生存韧性的观测指标,首次运用断点回归与双重差分模型相结合的方法对疫情冲击下企业生存韧性进行了定量研究。研究发现,受突发疫情影响,反映上市公司生存韧性的指标呈现出“V”型波动,疫情影响在2~3个季度之后基本得到恢复,表明企业生存具有强大韧性;从地区看,疫情冲击对湖北影响最大,部分疫情轻度地区疫情防控存在“层层加码”现象;从行业看,疫情对交通运输、仓储和邮政业、住宿和餐饮业产生的冲击最大;从产权主体看,疫情影响程度由大到小依次为外资企业、国有企业和民营企业;从规模看,疫情冲击对大型企业成长能力指标负向影响大于中型企业,而对中型企业盈利能力指标负向影响大于大型企业,疫情冲击对小型企业净利润同比增长率产生了显著促进作用,表明小型上市公司具有更大的灵活性和较强的生存韧性。本文认为,应根据企业生存韧性和企业特征选取差异化帮扶政策,科学统筹推进常态化疫情防控和经济社会发展。     

Impact of government policy responses of COVID-19 pandemic on stock market liquidity for Australian companies

This study investigates the impact of government policy responses of COVID-19 pandemic on stock market liquidity for listed Australian companies and for 11 different industries separately. A quantitative deductive approach is used for a sample of 1,452 companies with a total of 292,164 firm-day observations over a period from January 25, 2020 to December 31, 2020 during the outbreak of COVID-19. Univariate and multivariate (two-way cluster-robust panel regression) analysis were conducted. Data were collected from the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker, Worldmeter, Refinitiv Workspace and Datastream. Our findings indicate that the influences of the six out of seven stringency policy responses reduced Australian equity market liquidity. However, public information campaigns enhanced market liquidity and hence trading activity. Among the 11 industries, our analysis shows that the non-pharmaceutical interventions by the Australian government have significant and positive effects on four industries: Consumer non-cyclicals, healthcare, financial and technology. However, the worse effects were depicted in the industrial (transportation) and energy industries. This study is important for investors, policymakers and regulators to understand the diverse effects of government policy responses of COVID-19 on stock market liquidity to enhance financial stability. Moreover, understanding this effect is particularly important to decision-makers such as portfolio and fund managers to manage their portfolios and trading activities during extreme turbulence times, such as COVID-19. Unlike previous studies that focus on country analysis, this study examines on firm basis the impact of government interventions on stock market liquidity in a well developed Australian stock market.     

Adapting to the new normal: A sustainable livelihood framework for the informal sectors during COVID-19

The extraordinary COVID-19 outbreak has heightened the existential dangers to the informal sector. This study explores the informal sector's tactics in Vietnam for mitigating the pandemic's effects and better adapting to the new normal. Using a sustainable livelihood approach (SLA) and multivariate model for ordered choices (MVOC) to conduct surveys on 513 subjects from the informal labor, our findings indicate that financial management is the most prevalent technique for mitigating the effects of COVID-19. Notably, the perception of the COVID-19 pandemic's impact on income and health is crucial to the adoption of mitigation efforts. The Vietnamese government, State Bank, and financial institutions should provide more help to the informal sector, particularly those operating in remote locations so that they can increase their resilience through mitigating measures. In parallel, the informal sector should participate in more deliberate forward mitigation planning in the anticipation of inevitable future shocks.     

Effects of COVID-19 restrictions on mechanization service providers and mechanization equipment retailers: Insights from phone surveys in Myanmar

Agrifood sector mechanization service providers (MSP) and mechanization equipment retailers (MER) have increasingly become the providers of mechanical technologies for smallholders in developing countries, including Myanmar. Evidence remains scarce on the effects of COVID-19 on these MSPs and MERs. This study provides insights into the effects of COVID-19 restrictions on MSPs and MERs in Myanmar, using unbalanced panel data from five rounds of phone surveys. Direct responses to COVID-19 involving movement restrictions, market disruptions, and growing financial challenges had significant negative effects on revenue prospects, service delivery, and sales of machines and equipment. Negative revenue prospects during a particular period can further hurt revenue prospects in subsequent periods. This is consistent with the hypotheses that MSPs who had incurred high sunk costs in machines can engage in more desperate and, thus, potentially suboptimal business practices to recover the sunk cost. Overall, policies to minimize movement restrictions and various financial struggles and mitigate any pessimism at the beginning of the production season are all important to make sure MSPs and MERs continue to function effectively under COVID-19.     

Support for bigger government: The principle-implementation gap and COVID-19

We study the COVID-19 pandemic's effect on government and market attitudes using within-subject comparisons of survey responses elicited before and after the onset of the pandemic. We find that participants develop significantly less favorable opinions toward government and markets; and that participants increase support for bigger government significantly and for redistribution, in general, marginally significantly. There is no evidence this leads to an increase in support for specific redistributive policies, nor for government to play a larger role in specific functions. Our results echo the stubbornness of American preferences for redistribution and suggest the presence of a principle-implementation gap.     

Social Distancing,Labor Market Outcomes,and Job Characteristics in the COVID-19 Pandemic

This study investigates the role of job characteristics on an individual’s decisions to follow social distancing policies, work, and apply for unemployment insurance in the United States during the COVID-19 pandemic. We use data that track millions of mobile devices and their daily movements across physical locations to measure whether the devices’ owners leave their homes, or work part-time or fulltime on a given day, and we also collect data on weekly unemployment insurance claims. We find that the presence of jobs with a high work-from-home capacity in a region increases the ability of people to follow social distancing policies and decreases their unemployment risk, whereas the presence of jobs with high physical proximity decreases the incidences of following social distancing policies and unemployment and increases the incidence of work during the pandemic. These heterogeneous responses based on local job characteristics persist even conditional on a broad set of demographic and socioeconomic variables.