The effect of financial transaction tax on market liquidity and volatility: An Italian perspective

This paper investigates the effect of the Financial Transaction Tax announcement, 29 December 2012, and the tax introduction, 1 March 2013, on the liquidity and volatility of the affected Italian stocks. The paper examines two-month windows of daily observations before and after each event. To assess the change in liquidity in pre- and post-event samples, the Mann–Whitney U-test for the equality of medians is employed, while for the assessment of volatility change, we apply the Levene test and its modifications for homogeneity of variances. The paper documents that the announcement of the tax positively affects market liquidity, whereas there is a dramatic decrease in liquidity as a result of tax introduction. It implies that the trading costs of the affected equities decrease after the tax announcement and significantly increase after the tax introduction events. As for volatility, the results mainly indicate no statistically significant changes between the pre- and post-tax announcement and introduction events.     

Short-sale constraints and the idiosyncratic volatility puzzle: An event study approach

Using three natural experiments, we test the hypothesis that investor overconfidence produces overpricing of high idiosyncratic volatility stocks in the presence of binding short-sale constraints. We study three events: IPO lockup expirations, option introductions, and the 2008 short-sale ban on financial firms. Consistent with our prediction, we show that when short-sale constraints are relaxed, event stocks with high idiosyncratic volatility tend to experience greater price reductions, as well as larger increases in trading volume and short interest, than those with low idiosyncratic volatility. These results hold when we benchmark event stocks with non-event stocks with comparable idiosyncratic volatility. Overall, our findings suggest that biased investor beliefs and binding short-sale constraints contribute to idiosyncratic volatility overpricing.     

The financial impact of COVID-19: Evidence from an event study of global hospitality firms

This paper examines the daily abnormal stock price returns of a sample of 154 publicly-traded hospitality firms from 23 different countries representing over $400 billion in combined market capitalization around the time that COVID-19 was first viewed by stock market participants as a major—possibly even existential—threat. The findings of the study suggest that, financially, hotels performed better than restaurants, which themselves performed better than casinos. These findings are consistent with medical recommendations concerning the relative safety of various hospitality-related activities and, therefore, also with the tenets of financial market efficiency in the hospitality sector. Additional findings suggest that hospitality firms with strong balance sheets and income statements characterized by relatively low leverage ratios, high market value (consistent with a “too big to fail” mentality), and higher price/earnings ratios (implying higher relative profitability) all fared better than smaller, weaker firms. Although, in no case, did Bloomberg's proprietary environmental, social, and governance (ESG) variable possess any predictive power, variables reflecting cross-country cultural differences support Huynh’s (2020) finding that “individualism” was an important factor in explaining the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on hospitality firms.     

The impact of monetary policy surprises on asset return volatility: the case of Germany

This paper investigates the impact of monetary policy surprises by the FED or Bundesbank/ECB on the return volatility of German stocks and bonds using a GARCH-M model. We show that stock return volatility is susceptible to monetary policy surprises in the United States, whereas monetary policy surprises in the Euro zone matter for bond return volatility. These findings are robust for other Euro zone stock markets, but not significant for other Euro zone bond markets. The empirical evidence also suggests that monetary policy surprises have larger effects on German stock return volatility in bear markets than in bull phases. Moreover, our results support the claim that stock return volatility can be negatively correlated with stock returns, contradicting predictions made by many asset pricing models (e.g., CAPM or ICAPM) and the empirical finding of an insignificant relationship often reported in the literature.

When financial markets work too well: A cautious case for a securities transactions tax

Unlike most major industrialized nations, the United States does not impose an excise tax on securities transactions. This article examines the desirability and feasibility of implementating a U.S. Securities Transfer Excise Tax (STET) directed at curbing excesses associated with short-term speculation and at raising revenue. We conclude that strong economic efficiency arguments can be made in support of a STET that throws sand into the gears, in James Tobin's (1982) phrase, of our excessively well-functioning financial markets. Such a tax would have the beneficial effects of curbing instability introduced by speculation, reducing the diversion of resources into the financial sector of the economy, and lengthening the horizons of corporate managers. The efficiency benefits derived from curbing speculation are likely to exceed any costs of reduced liquidity or increased costs of capital that come from taxing financial transactions more heavily. The examples of Japan and the United Kingdom suggest that a STET is administratively feasible and can be implemented without crippling the competitiveness of U.S. financial markets. A STET at a .5% rate could raise revenues of at least $10 billion annually.     

The impact of terrorism on financial markets: An empirical study

The main focus of this paper is to study empirically the impact of terrorism on the behavior of stock, bond and commodity markets. We consider terrorist events that took place in 25 countries over an 11-year time period and implement our analysis using different methods: an event-study approach, a non-parametric methodology, and a filtered GARCH-EVT approach. In addition, we compare the effect of terrorist attacks on financial markets with the impact of other extreme events such as financial crashes and natural catastrophes. The results of our analysis show that a non-parametric approach is the most appropriate method among the three for analyzing the impact of terrorism on financial markets. We demonstrate the robustness of this method when interest rates, equity market integration, spillover and contemporaneous effects are controlled. We show how the results of this approach can be used for investors’ portfolio diversification strategies against terrorism risk.     

The impact of the French securities transaction tax on market liquidity and volatility

In this paper, we assess the impact of the securities transaction tax (STT) introduced in France in 2012 on market liquidity and volatility. To identify causality, we rely on a distinctive design of the tax, which is imposed on large French firms only, all listed on Euronext. This provides two reliable control groups (smaller French firms and foreign firms listed on Euronext) and allows us to use a difference-in-difference approach in order to isolate the impact of the tax from the other economic changes that have occurred simultaneously. We find that the STT has reduced stock trading, but we find no significant effect on theoretically based measures of liquidity, such as price impact, and no significant effect on volatility. The results are robust whether we rely on different control groups (German stocks listed on the Deutsche Börse), different datasets (firm-level or aggregated data), different periods (from one to six months), or different methodologies (propensity score matching, regression discontinuity design).     

The impact of technological change on household transactions account balances: An empirical cross-section study

The purpose of this article is to determine the impact of adoption of new technology (ATMs) by households on their behavior in holding transactions balances. Previous studies show that households respond to the, availability of ATMs by reducing their currency inventories. Reduced currency needs may be reflected in a reallocation of funds from currency to transactions balances. To test this hypothesis, data from two large household surveys are utilized. It is shown that use of technology has a substantial impact on the transactions balances held by households.     

The war on terror and its impact on the long-term volatility of financial markets

In this article, we analyze how the U.S.' declaration of the war on terror and the subsequent invasion of Iraq has impacted long-term volatility of stock markets around the world. In doing so, we utilize two statistical techniques: wavelet-based variance analysis and a semi-parametric fractional autoregressive (SEMIFARIMA) model. Our sample comprises stock and commodity indices worldwide for the sample period January 2000-June 2006. Specifically, we consider four geographic regions: the Americas, Africa/Middle East, Europe, and Asia/Pacific. We conclude that political instability in the Middle East had its greatest impact on the volatility of financial markets around the beginning of the Iraq war, and it mostly hit developed markets (e.g., United States, United Kingdom, and Japan). Thereafter, for most sampled indices, volatility has exhibited a decreasing trend to reach eventually levels even lower than that observed at the beginning of our sample. An exception is Egypt's CMA and the Dow Jones AIG all commodities. We think that the latest political conflicts in the Middle East and their impact on the price of oil may be the most likely driving force of such volatility in those two indices. Specifically, among Egypt's main export products are petroleum and petroleum products.     

Central bank announcements of asset purchases and the impact on global financial and commodity markets

We present evidence on the effects of large-scale asset purchases by the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England since 2008. We show that announcements about these purchases led to lower long-term interest rates and depreciations of the U.S. dollar and the British pound on announcement days, while commodity prices generally declined despite this more stimulative financial environment. We suggest that LSAP announcements likely involved signaling effects about future growth that led investors to downgrade their U.S. growth forecasts lowering long-term US yields, depreciating the value of the U.S. dollar, and triggering a decline in commodity prices. Moreover, our analysis illustrates the importance of controlling for market expectations when assessing these effects. We find that positive U.S. monetary surprises led to declines in commodity prices, even as long-term interest rates fell and the U.S. dollar depreciated. In contrast, on days of negative U.S. monetary surprises, i.e. when markets evidently believed that monetary policy was less stimulatory than expected, long-term yields, the value of the dollar, and commodity prices all tended to increase.     

An unobserved component model of asset pricing across financial markets

Our research focuses on multifactor asset pricing models that investigate the importance of economic factors in the pricing of assets beyond the scope of the stock market. We present a Bayesian learning model of asset pricing across financial markets in which unobserved components are estimated using a Kalman filter (KF). Economic factors serve to drive the pricing of risk in the market, and agents update expectations recursively, as new information becomes available. We generally find that the Kalman filter provides superior performance and that economic factors like industrial production and unanticipated inflation provide consistent implications across financial markets.     

The determinants of the volatility of returns on cross-border asset holdings

Using both panel and cross-sectional models for 28 industrialized countries observed from 2001–2009, we report a number of findings regarding the determinants of the volatility of returns on cross-border asset holdings (i.e., equity and debt). Greater portfolio concentration and an increase in assets held in emerging markets lead to an elevation in earning volatility, whereas more financial integration and a greater share held in Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development countries and by the household sector cause a reduction in the return volatility. Larger asset holdings by offshore financial corporations and non-bank financial institutions cause higher market volatility, although they affect volatility in the equity and bond markets in the opposite way. Overall, both panel and cross-sectional estimations provide very similar results (albeit of different magnitude) and are robust to the endogeneity problem.     

Assessing professional ethics in tax: A case on uncertain tax positions

We develop and present an ethics case dealing with an uncertain tax position. The case can be used to assess professional ethics as part of an assurance-of-learning (AOL) plan as well as a component of a course grade. We present data on student performance on this case over a 5-year period. Students consider existing ethical frameworks to identify and frame the potential ethical “dilemmas” they might face in addressing whether to countenance a client’s suggested treatment and disclosure of an uncertain tax position. In addition, students evaluate the AICPA guidance and U.S. Treasury standards on taking and reporting uncertain tax positions in the tax return and the FASB and PCAOB standards on reporting and auditing uncertain tax positions in the financial statements. The case allows faculty to assess students’ ability to frame potential ethical dilemmas when clients engage in aggressive tax behavior, to recognize with whom and with what professional reference documents they should consult when an uncertain tax position arises, and to choose among alternative actions when faced with client/preparer conflicts.     

Reporting of book-tax differences for financial and tax purposes: A case study

Recent events in financial and tax accounting have brought the issue of financial accounting for tax expenses to the forefront of both the accounting profession and academia. Complexities abound on both sides, from ASC 740/FAS 109 and ASC 740-10/FIN 48 issues on the financial accounting side to the Schedule M-3 and Schedule UTP reporting requirements on the tax side. This complexity has created a vacuum in accounting curricula, as bits and pieces of the total puzzle are covered in the intermediate accounting and tax courses, without a comprehensive, integrated review in one place.     

A general framework for the derivation of asset price bounds: an application to stochastic volatility option models

We present a generalization of Cochrane and Saá-Requejo’s good-deal bounds which allows to include in a flexible way the implications of a given stochastic discount factor model. Furthermore, a useful application to stochastic volatility models of option pricing is provided where closed-form solutions for the bounds are obtained. A calibration exercise demonstrates that our benchmark good-deal pricing results in much tighter bounds. Finally, a discussion of methodological and economic issues is also provided.      

Relative risk aversion once more: An analysis of Japanese households' financial asset holding pattern

It is widely accepted that as the total assets increse, households tend to diversify their portfolios. In other words, absolute risk aversion is decreasing. On the other hand, the proportion of risky assets may increase or decrease depending on whether relative risk aversion (RRA) is decreasing or increasing, and its direction is still left open as an empirical question. This study examines the constancy of RRA from Japanese individual households' financial asset holding data collected in 1984. Constant RRA implies that the proportion of risky assets in one's portfolio is constant regardless of the amount of total assets. A casual observation of household portfolio holding pattern suggests that this implication is clearly violated by the data, because there are substantial proportion of households which do not hold any risky assets. Zero-holding, however, may be interpreted as a result of fixed transaction cost incurred by individual investors when they hold risky assets. Then, we pose a question, ‘Do investors hold constant proportion of risky assets, when they decide to hold them?’ In order to explain a substantial number of zero risky asset holders in the sample, we propose a portfolio selection model with a transaction cost, and estimate the model using a variant of Heckman's two-step method. In estimation we control for individual investors' socioeconomic characteristics, as well as income and total assets. The construction of the model imposes nonlinear restrictions on the two estimators, from which we can test the specification of the model. The estimation results suggest that there is a statistically significant decreasing tendency linked to total assets but that its rate of change tapers off as total assets increase. Our results are consistent with the previous studies which tended to support constant RRA for the higher asset holders, and complement previous studies in explaining lower asset holders' investment behavior.     

Heterogeneous expectations and long-range correlation of the volatility of asset returns

Inspired by the recent literature on aggregation theory, we attempt to relate the long-range correlation of the stock return volatility to the heterogeneity of the investors' expectations concerning the level of the future volatility. Based on a semi-parametric model of investors' anticipations, we make the connection between the distributional properties of the heterogeneity parameters and the auto-covariance/auto-correlation functions of the realized volatility. We report different behaviors, or change of convention, the observation of which depends on the market phase under consideration. In particular, we report and justify the fact that the volatility exhibits significantly longer memory during phases of a speculative bubble than during the recovery phase following the collapse of a speculative bubble.     

Consumption, the persistence of shocks, and asset price volatility

In a general equilibrium setting, a temporary component in consumption introduces a wedge between the volatility of equity returns and the volatility of consumption growth. This paper explores the asset pricing consequences of this property in a model in which consumption is the sum of a permanent and a transitory component. Permanent shocks are assumed to be rare events, while transitory shocks follow a diffusion process. When calibrated to US annual data, the model matches first and second moments of equity and bond returns for preference parameters within acceptable bounds. Permanent and transitory shocks together explain the equity premium, while transitory shocks alone explain the excess volatility of returns.     

The impact of tax holidays on earnings management: An empirical study of corporate reporting behavior in a developing-economy framework

This study investigates whether foreign investment enterprises (FIEs) in China alter their corporate reporting behavior in response to a known schedule of tax-rate increases. The context of this investigation is a tax-incentive scheme that allows firms to pay taxes at a reduced rate for a limited period of time, and then at a higher rate when this period expires. If managers attempt to maximize firm value by minimizing tax costs, then the spread of tax rates in the periods surrounding the rate change may provide a substantial incentive for them to accelerate revenue and defer expenses. Consistent with this hypothesis, the empirical results indicate that firms report significantly higher discretionary current accruals for the years before tax-rate increases. The evidence, which indicates that firms manage earnings upward to take advantage of lower tax rates that are available in certain years, has important implications for tax policymakers.