Relationship between oil price and exchange rate by FDA and copula

This article investigates the relationship between daily crude oil prices and exchange rates. Functional data analysis is used to show the clustering pattern of exchange rates and oil prices over the time period through high dimensional visualizations. We select exchange rates for important currencies related to crude oil prices by using the objective Bayesian variable selection method. The selected sample data exhibits non-normal distribution with fat tails and skewness. Under the non-normality of the return series, we use copula functions that do not require to assume the bivariate normality to consider marginal distribution. In particular, our study applies the popular and powerful statistical methods such as Gaussian copula partial correlations and Gaussian copula marginal regression. We find evidence of significant dependence for all considered pairs, except for the Mexican peso-Brent. Our empirical results also show that the rise in the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price returns is associated with a depreciation of the US dollar.     

“中部崛起”的投资环境及政策建议

中部崛起,投资先行。选取反映经济发展水平与投资环境的17项指标,运用因子分析法对中国中部地区的统计数据进行综合评价,依此反映中部各地区投资环境的优势之所在,为各地区的发展提供参考。     

Decomposing the contribution of migration to poverty reduction: methodology and application to Tanzania

In an economy with migration, poverty changes are composed of a number of forces, including the income gains and losses realized by the various migration streams. We present a simple but powerful decomposition methodology that uses panel data to measure the contributions of different migration streams to overall poverty change. An application to Tanzania shows the new insights that are provided – in particular on the role of migration to secondary towns in poverty reduction.     

粗糙集在客户细分系统中的应用

利用不完备信息系统的粗糙集有关方法实现客户细分系统中客户个性化需求的挖掘过程,并对建模过程的主要步骤和关键问题作详尽的阐述,通过对客户个性化需求的分类进行分析和归纳可以发现影响企业实施销售战略的关键需求及其相关知识,企业可以根据挖掘结果,调整其经营策略,提升企业竞争力。应用实例表明:该模型是合理和可行的。     

家庭债务收入比的影响因素研究——来自于微观调查数据的证据

本文利用CHFS2015的调查数据,运用有序结果的两部分模型,研究了中国家庭债务收入比的影响因素。结果表明,微观数据并不支持中国家庭已过度负债的结论;住房状况是对家庭债务状况分类和债务收入比影响效应最大的因素。家庭净资产的增加会降低债务收入比,减少正常负债和异常负债的概率,家庭持久收入却相反,但影响效应和显著水平都较低。人力资本越高的家庭具有更高的债务收入比和负债的概率。居住区域对债务状况分类和正常债务家庭的债务收入比的影响方向不一样。风险偏好却只对债务状况分类影响显著。     

Estimates of real economic activity in Switzerland, 1886–1930

This paper uses annual data spanning 1870 to 1930 on a set of variables correlated with business conditions to construct an index of real economic activity in Switzerland. We extract an estimate of the common component of the data series using principal components analysis and the unobservable variables approach proposed by Stock and Watson (1989, 1991). The resulting index is similar to that constructed by Andrist et al. (2000) but displays more variation over time and is available for a longer time period. Moreover, it is less volatile and covers a longer time period in the 20th century than the estimate by Ritzmann-Blickenstorfer (1996).First version received: May 2002/Final version received: September 2004The views expressed in this paper are solely our own and are not necessarily shared by the institutions we are affiliated with. We thank the Editor and the anonymous referees for helpful comments (in particular for finding serious errors in the principal components analysis), and Jim Stock and Mark Watson for detailed explanations of their estimation strategy.     

Forecasting inflation in China

This paper forecasts inflation in China over a 12-month horizon. The analysis runs 15 alternative models and finds that only those considering many predictors via a principal component display a better relative forecasting performance than the univariate benchmark.     

流动性过剩影响因素的实证分析

通过货币的供求对比测度出流动性过剩,采用主成分分析方法研究了流动性过剩的影响因素。实证结果表明,货币存量的持续高位、经济增长、持续低利率与人民币升值、物价指数的高涨、外汇储备和净出口增加导致流动性过剩,资产价格与流动性过剩之间存在反向关系,各因素之间存在着交互影响。实证结果与理论分析结论高度吻合。     

城市竞争力:一个系统分析框架及其应用--淮海经济区城市竞争力的测度与分析

文章提出了基于系统概念的城市竞争力评价框架,从城市对稀缺资源的吸引力、对输入的处理和转换效率、产品(或服务)输出能力三方面对淮海经济区20个城市的竞争力进行了评价,得出了这些城市的竞争力排序,对排序结果进行了分析。     

新疆南疆兵团农业产业化综合发展水平的实证分析

农业产业化是发展现代农业的主要方式和根本出路。文章以新疆南疆兵团所属各师为研究对象,在了解其农业产业化发展现状、有利及不利条件的基础上,选取并构建了与农业产业化发展紧密相关的18项指标,运用主成分分析方法,对新疆南疆兵团各师农业产业化的基础条件、经济实力、现代化水平及规模进行全面、系统的评价,为今后加快推进新疆南疆兵团农业产业化进程提出针对性建议。     

主成分分析方法在区域经济统计分析中的应用

根据主成分分析的原理和方法,利用SPSS社会统计软件分析得出,2003-2007年孝感市经济发展总体势头是良好的,但也存在一些问题。首先,经济总量不大且增长速度缓慢,需要因势利导,大力调整产业结构;其次,投资增长速度不快,需要依托武汉经济圈的优势加大招商引资的力度;最后,工业基础薄弱,发展缓慢,需要制定政策,引进人才,改进技术。     

基于SPCA的我国地区发展评价和分析

唯GDP的考核方式造成了诸多问题。采用稀疏主成分分析构建了新的地区发展评价指数。研究表明,采用该方法是适合的,构造的指数不仅克服了大多数指数权重设置的主观性,能够有效分析地区综合发展水平,而且有利于透视地区发展各个方面存在的不平衡以及历史演进过程。     

Comparing Bargaining Solutions in the Shadow of Conflict: How Norms against Threats Can Have Real Effects

In many economic environments agents make costly and irreversible investments (in “guns”) that may enhance their respective threat payoffs but also shrink the utility possibilities set. In such settings, with variable threats and a variable utility possibilities set, it becomes possible to rank different bargaining solutions in terms of efficiency. We compare bargaining solutions within a class in which the influence of the threat point on the bargaining outcome varies across solutions. Under symmetry, we find that the solution in which the threat point is least influential—the equal sacrifice solution—Pareto-dominates the other solutions. Since the equal sacrifice solution puts the least weight on the threat point, norms against threats (that can be seen in many seemingly rhetorical pronouncements in adversarial relations) can mitigate some of the costs of conflict and therefore have efficiency-enhancing effects. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: C72, C78, D30, D70, D72, K42.     

A Comparison of Household Recycling Behaviors in Norway and the United States

This paper investigates empirically the determinants of household recycling in Norway and compares the results with a similar, recently published, study of households in the United States. The comparison focuses on the relative importance of user fees on waste disposal, community recycling programs, and socioeconomic factors. Both data sources are nationwide, material-specific, and at the household level. One major finding is that a disposal fee provides a significant economic incentive to Norwegian households, whereas its effectiveness in the United States is still up for debate. Providing households with convenient recycling options, such as curbside and drop-off recycling, appears generally effective, but less so in Norway than in the United States. Socioeconomic characteristics are less important predictors of behavior in Norway than in the United States. Qualifications on the comparison are provided throughout and two extensions for future research are suggested at the end.     

Government interventions and the size of the informal economy. The case of Iran (1971–2007)

Literature on the informal economy can mainly be divided into two different contrasting theories. According to the dual labor market theory (DLM), which considers the informal economy as a spare sector providing jobs for formally unemployed resources, unpleasant economic situations force people to act informally. Legalists, on the other hand, blame government interventions such as minimum wages or price control policies for pushing rent-seeking firms toward the shadows. This study using an Error-correction Multi-Indicators Multi-Causes (EMIMIC) model, a systematic method consisting of structural and measurement equations, shows that these two theories are complementary rather than substitutes for one another. While long-term trends are explained by legalists, DLM theory is also suitable for explaining short term changes. Iran’s economy in the period 1971–2007, which was characterized by government interventions, is chosen for this purpose. These interventions are measured by Principal Component Analysis. Finally, an index of the size of Iran’s informal economy is also reported.     

河北省区域科技资源优化配置之对策

通过建立科技资源配置效率的投入产出模型,运用多元统计分析中的主成分分析法以及聚类分析法,对河北省11个地区的科技资源配置效率情况进行了定量研究,确定了影响科技资源配置效率的主要因素,为制定合理的科技资源配置政策提供依据。