The value of asset allocation advice: Evidence from The Economist's quarterly portfolio poll

This study analyzes the economic importance of portfolio advice for an investor with an international and multiple-asset investment strategy. We construct portfolios based upon the asset allocation and security market advice of major international investment bankers and analyze the performance using weight-based techniques. Our results indicate that portfolio advisers are not able to outperform passive benchmarks. They do not realize superior performance either through appropriate timing or selection skills. Apparent market timing skills as measured by the Portfolio Change Measure are to a large extent an artifact caused by serial correlation in the return indices used. Likewise, the apparent short-run performance persistence is more due to the serial correlation in returns than to active portfolio selection strategies.     

Robust portfolio choice with ambiguity and learning about return predictability

We analyze the optimal stock-bond portfolio under both learning and ambiguity aversion. Stock returns are predictable by an observable and an unobservable predictor, and the investor has to learn about the latter. Furthermore, the investor is ambiguity-averse and has a preference for investment strategies that are robust to model misspecifications. We derive a closed-form solution for the optimal robust investment strategy. We find that both learning and ambiguity aversion impact the level and structure of the optimal stock investment. Suboptimal strategies resulting either from not learning or from not considering ambiguity can lead to economically significant losses.     

Portfolio insurance and prospect theory investors: Popularity and optimal design of capital protected financial products

Portfolio insurance strategies are used on both the institutional and the retail side of the asset management industry. While standard utility theory struggles to provide an explanation, this study justifies the popularity of portfolio insurance strategies in a behavioral finance context. We run Monte Carlo simulations as well as historical simulations for popular portfolio insurance strategies and benchmark strategies in order to evaluate the outcomes using cumulative prospect theory. Our simulation results indicate that most portfolio insurance strategies are the preferred investment strategy for a prospect theory investor. Moreover, the analysis provides insights into how portfolio insurance products should be designed and structured to meet the preferences of prospect theory investors as accurately as possible.     

Do commodities add value in multi-asset portfolios? An out-of-sample analysis for different investment strategies

An essential motive for investing in commodities is to enhance the performance of portfolios traditionally including only stocks and bonds. We analyze the in-sample and out-of-sample portfolio effects resulting from adding commodities to a stock-bond portfolio for commonly implemented asset allocation strategies such as equally- and strategically-weighted portfolios, risk-parity, minimum-variance as well as reward-to-risk timing, mean-variance and Black–Litterman. We analyze different commodity groups such as agricultural and livestock commodities that currently are critically discussed. The out-of-sample portfolio analysis indicates that the attainable benefits of commodities are much smaller than suggested by previous in-sample studies. Hence, in-sample analyses, such as spanning tests, might exaggerate the advantages of commodities. Moreover, the portfolio gains greatly vary between different types of commodities and sub-periods. While aggregate commodity indices, industrial and precious metals as well as energy improve the performance of a stock-bond portfolio for most asset allocation strategies, we hardly find positive portfolio effects for agriculture and livestock. Consequently, investments in food commodities are not essential for efficient asset allocation.     

Benefits of wavelet-based carry trade diversification

This study investigates carry trade diversification opportunities and linkages of major carry trade currencies on five different investment horizons. Using daily data on eight currencies and LIBOR rates, we examine the temporal structure of correlations and assess portfolio diversification benefits with wavelet techniques. Our results indicate that positive and economically significant carry trade excess returns are observed on all investigated investment horizons. We document that strategies built on the basis of wavelet correlation lead to significant diversification benefits. These findings indicate the importance of the dynamic structure of exchange rate correlations to currency arbitrage strategies.     

Optimal portfolio choice in real terms: Measuring the benefits of TIPS

In this paper we solve an optimal portfolio choice problem to measure the benefits of Treasury Inflation Indexed Securities (TIPS) to investors concerned with maximizing real wealth. We show how the introduction of a real riskless asset completes the investor asset space, by contrasting optimal portfolio allocations with and without such assets. We use historical data to quantify gains from availability of TIPS in the presence of other asset classes such as equities, commodities, and real estate. We draw a distinction between buy-and-hold long-term investors for whom TIPS fully displace nominal risk-free assets and short-term investors for whom TIPS improve the investment opportunity set of real returns. Finally, we show how gains from TIPS are tempered by the availability of alternative assets that covary with inflation, such as gold and real estate.     

On the investment credentials of Bitcoin: A cross-currency perspective

We examine diversification capabilities of Bitcoin for a global portfolio spread across six asset classes from the standpoint of investors dealing in five major fiat currencies namely US Dollar, Great Britain Pound, Euro, Japanese Yen and Chinese Yuan. Considering the period of prolonged decline in Bitcoin’s value throughout 2018, we employ modified conditional value-at-risk and standard deviation as measures of risk to perform portfolio optimisations across three asset allocation strategies. Results show that portfolios denominated in Japanese Yen, Chinese Yuan and US Dollar account for greater proportion of optimal investment in Bitcoin and exhibit higher improvement in risk-adjusted returns due to investment in Bitcoin. We also perform a comprehensive risk-adjusted evaluation of portfolios with and without Bitcoin to reinforce striking variation in degree of diversification benefits of Bitcoin in a cross-currency context. Taken together, our findings provide insights into sharp disparity in Bitcoin trading volumes across national currencies from a portfolio theory perspective.     

Minimizing the lifetime ruin under borrowing and short-selling constraints

In this paper, the optimal investment strategies for minimizing the probability of lifetime ruin under borrowing and short-selling constraints are found. The investment portfolio consists of multiple risky investments and a riskless investment. The investor withdraws money from the portfolio at a constant rate proportional to the portfolio value. In order to find the results, an auxiliary market is constructed, and the techniques of stochastic optimal control are used. Via this method, we show how the application of stochastic optimal control is possible for minimizing the probability of lifetime ruin problem defined under an auxiliary market.     

How suboptimal are linear sharing rules?

The objective of this paper is to analyze criteria for portfolio choice when two investors are forced to invest in a common portfolio and share the proceeds by a linear sharing rule. A similar situation with many investors is typical for defined contribution pension schemes. The restriction implies two sources of suboptimal investment decisions as seen from each of the two investors individually. One is the suboptimal choice of portfolio, the other is the forced linear sharing rule. We measure the combined consequence for each investor by their respective loss in wealth equivalent. We show that significant losses can arise when investors are diverse in their risk attitude. We also show that an investor with a low degree of risk aversion, like the logarithmic or the square root investor, often applied in portfolio choice models, can either inflict or be subject to severe losses when being forced to participate in such a common investment pool.     

Does a Held-to-Maturity Strategy Impede Effective Portfolio Diversification for Islamic Bond (Sukuk) Portfolios? A Multi-Scale Continuous Wavelet Correlation Analysis

There is a critical gap in the literature in studying the portfolio diversification opportunities available to sukuk investors and evaluating these in light of held-to-maturity strategies usually adopted by these investors. This article has made an initial attempt to study the portfolio diversification strategies for sukuk portfolios across heterogeneous investment horizons. Our findings critically indicate that returns between local currency sukuk in different markets generally have low levels of correlations across different investor holding periods, thus enabling both short and long-run portfolio diversification benefits. However, in contrast, international currency sukuk issued in different markets exhibits high levels of correlations in the longer-term investor holding periods. Also, in the domestic market context, returns on different classes of domestic sukuk are found to exhibit strong correlations in the longer-holding periods. Our findings critically highlight the feasibility of held-to-maturity sukuk investment strategies from a portfolio diversification perspective.     

Computing optimal rebalance frequency for log-optimal portfolios

Log-optimal investment portfolio is deemed to be impractical and cost-prohibitive due to inherent need for continuous rebalancing and significant overhead of trading cost. We study the question of how often a log-optimal portfolio should be rebalanced for any given finite investment horizon. We develop an analytical framework to compute the expected log of portfolio growth when a given discrete-time periodic rebalance frequency is used. For a certain class of portfolio assets, we compute the optimal rebalance frequency. We show that it is possible to improve investor log utility using this quasi-passive or hybrid rebalancing strategy. Simulation studies show that an investor shall gain significantly by rebalancing periodically in discrete time, overcoming the limitations of continuous rebalancing.     

Taking the Long Way Home: U.S. Tax Evasion and Offshore Investments in U.S. Equity and Debt Markets

We empirically investigate one form of illegal investor‐level tax evasion and its effect on foreign portfolio investment. In particular, we examine a form of round‐tripping tax evasion in which U.S. individuals hide funds in entities located in offshore tax havens and then invest those funds in U.S. securities markets. Employing Becker's ( 1968 ) economic theory of crime, we identify the tax evasion component by examining how foreign portfolio investment varies with changes in the incentives to evade and the risks of detection. To our knowledge, this is the first empirical evidence of investor‐level tax evasion affecting cross‐border equity and debt investment.     

Investment decisions when utility depends on wealth and other attributes

The problem of optimal investment under a multivariate utility function allows for an investor to obtain utility not only from wealth, but other (possibly correlated) attributes. In this paper we implement multivariate mixtures of exponential (mixex) utility to address this problem. These utility functions allow for stochastic risk aversions to differing states of the world. We derive some new results for certainty equivalence in this context. By specifying different distributions for stochastic risk aversions, we are able to derive many known, plus several new utility functions, including models of conditional certainty equivalence and multivariate generalisations of HARA utility, which we call dependent HARA utility. Focusing on the case of asset returns and attributes being multivariate normal, we optimise the asset portfolio, and find that the optimal portfolio consists of the Markowitz portfolio and hedging portfolios. We provide an empirical illustration for an investor with a mixex utility function of wealth and sentiment.     

Mutual fund flows and investor returns: An empirical examination of fund investor timing ability

We examine the timing ability of mutual fund investors using cash flow data at the individual fund level. Over 1991–2004 equity fund investor timing decisions reduce fund investor average returns by 1.56% annually. Underperformance due to poor timing is greater in load funds and funds with relatively large risk-adjusted returns. In particular, the magnitude of investor underperformance due to poor timing largely offsets the risk-adjusted alpha gains offered by good-performing funds. Investors in both actively managed funds and index funds exhibit poor investment timing. We demonstrate that our empirical results are consistent with investor return-chasing behavior.     

They're back! Post-financialization diversification benefits of commodities

Do alternative assets such as commodities improve portfolio diversification? The empirical evidence is generally positive but mixed, and almost exclusively focuses on U.S. data. Using several distinct commodity indexes over the period 1993–2019, we investigate the case of an investor in Canada, a commodity-currency country where equities are already exposed to commodity beta. We use spanning tests and several out-of-sample performance measures for both risk-averse and disappointment-averse investors. Overall, we find that while the diversification potential of commodities was limited in Canada before and during financialization, the post-financialization period offers new opportunities. The evidence suggests that portfolio performance is significantly improved using some, but not all, commodity indexes. Thus, the choice of a relevant commodity index matters as a vehicle for diversification. Finally, compounding an international component to the sectorial diversification of the portfolio can significantly improve its performance.     

Are carry,momentum and value still there in currencies?

We show that carry, momentum and value predictability in currencies is associated with mispricing. Specifically, investment performance disappears subsequent to published evidence showing portfolio returns are not fully explained by risk. Replicating these studies, we show that the average out-of-sample Sharpe ratio decreases from +0.39 to −0.32. Cross sectional tests show that currencies no longer respond to interest rate and real exchange rate differentials. During this period currency excess returns do not exhibit autocorrelation. Our results are consistent with investors learning about mispricing from academic research.     

Dynamic Asset Allocation with Event Risk

Major events often trigger abrupt changes in stock prices and volatility. We study the implications of jumps in prices and volatility on investment strategies. Using the event-risk framework of Duffie, Pan, and Singleton (2000), we provide analytical solutions to the optimal portfolio problem. Event risk dramatically affects the optimal strategy. An investor facing event risk is less willing to take leveraged or short positions. The investor acts as if some portion of his wealth may become illiquid and the optimal strategy blends both dynamic and buy-and-hold strategies. Jumps in prices and volatility both have important effects.     

Strategic capacity investment under uncertainty

This article considers investment decisions within an uncertain dynamic and duopolistic framework. Each investment decision involves to determine the timing and the capacity level. The simultaneous analysis of timing and capacity decisions extends work on entry deterrence/accommodation to consider a timing/delay element. We find that, when applying an entry deterrence policy, the first investor, or incumbent, overinvests in capacity for two reasons. First, it delays the investment of the second investor, or entrant. Second, the entrant will invest in less capacity. We also find that greater uncertainty makes entry deterrence more likely.     

High frequency momentum trading with cryptocurrencies

Over the past few years, cryptocurrencies have increasingly been discussed as alternatives to traditional fiat currencies. These digital currencies have garnered significant interest from investment banks and portfolio managers as a potential option to diversify the financial risk from investing in other assets. This interest has also extended to the general public who have seen cryptocurrencies as a way of making a quick profit. This paper provides a first insight into the applicability of high frequency momentum trading strategies for cryptocurrencies. We implemented two variations of a signal-based momentum trading strategy: (i) a time series method; (ii) a cross sectional method. These strategies were tested on a selection of seven of the largest cryptocurrencies ranked by market capitalization. The results show that there exists potential for the momentum strategy to be used successfully for cryptocurrency trading in a high frequency setting. A comparison with a passive portfolio strategy is proposed, which shows abnormal returns when compared with the momentum strategies. Furthermore, the robustness of our results are checked through the application of the momentum strategies other sample periods. We also compare the performances of the signal-based momentum strategies with returns-based versions of the strategies. It is shown that the signal-based strategy outperforms the returns-based strategy. However, there appears to be no single parameterization of the signal-based strategies that can generate the greatest cumulative return over all sample periods.     

Fare Thee Well? An Analysis of Buyout Funds’ Exit Strategies

This paper analyzes exit strategies of buyout funds in portfolio companies following initial public offerings (IPOs). We use a data set of 222 buyout‐backed IPOs in the United States from 1999 to 2008, including hand‐collected data about each exit process, to draw a detailed roadmap of buyout investors’ divestment processes. Using this data, we document the timing and aggressiveness of the exit strategies, and analyze to which degree a multitude of possible determinants influence the choice of a given exit strategy. Our results indicate that buyout funds remain invested in their portfolio companies for a substantial period of time after the IPO, and that the choice of a given exit strategy depends not only upon the characteristics of each respective portfolio company, but also on the financial success of the deal from the perspective of the buyout investor.