Comparison Utility in a Growth Model

We examine the dynamics of two endogenous-growth modelsin which agents have comparison utility. In the inward-lookingeconomy, individuals care about how their current consumptioncompares with their own past consumption. In the outward-lookingeconomy, they care about how their own consumption compares withother peoples consumption. In response to a negative shock tocapital, saving and growth will temporarily fall in both of themodels that we consider but will remain constant in a model withstandard preferences. The decline will be smaller in the outward-than in the inward-looking case, but utility will be lower inthe former case because of a negative externality.     

内生比较优势演化——基于中国制造业的经验研究

文章构建了一个国际贸易动态分析框架将技术变迁和比较优势模式的动态演进同时内生化,说明了部门的干中学和国际知识外溢分别是比较优势模式演化呈固化性和流动性的主要动因。但是,内生比较优势在长期内是不断固化还是发生逆转最终是一个经验研究的问题。文章采用了马尔可夫链来考察中国制造业比较优势动态分布的固化性和流动性的程度,研究结果显示,中国制造业比较优势模式的演变具有固化性的特征。     

网络环境下消费者信任影响因素研究———以产品类型为调节变量

信任已成为电子商务研究领域的重要议题。本研究通过对文献的梳理发现,已有研究主要源自社会交换理论、期望－确认理论、合理行动理论、计划行为理论与科技接受模式5种理论基础,理论基础的差异致使在消费者信任影响因素的研究成果中存在重复与分歧。本文以一个新的视角对已有研究成果进行整合,构建出一个理论模型,并获得实证支持。其中,信任的影响因素被划分为感知网站投入、声誉及信任倾向,信任本身被划分为信任信念与信任意图。该模型被证明是一个有完全中介效应的调节变量,即感知网站投入、声誉及信任倾向都完全通过信任信念的中介作用对信任意图产生显著的正向影响,而这一影响过程会受到产品类型的调节：在购买高涉入－理性类产品时,感知网站投入与声誉都对消费者的信任意图发挥着重要的影响,在购买低涉入－理性类产品时,消费者更愿意依照自己的信任倾向做出决策。     

The quest for status and endogenous labor supply: the relative wealth framework

We analyze the implications of relative wealth preferences in a Ramsey model with endogenous labor supply. In contrast to relative consumption preferences, they allow for the possibility that agents work too little in the long run, while under both specifications the steady-state levels of consumption and the stock of physical capital exceed their socially optimal counterparts. Even in the case of excessive leisure agents are worse off in terms of intertemporal utility because initial transitional dynamics are characterized by under-consumption and excessive work effort. “Too much” long-run consumption of goods and leisure is possible due to the excessive capital-labor ratio.      

中国城镇居民消费的理性检验及实证研究

通过对1990-2003年中国城镇居民消费数据进行检验,否定了在此样本区间内消费主体的理性预期消费假设;并利用样本数据建立了满足统计检验要求的且与实际拟合较好的消费模型,得出结论:消费习惯和可支配收入的变动是影响城镇居民消费的最主要因素。     

能源利用效率的区际比较及对策分析

本文对我国能源利用效率的现实状况及其影响因素进行历史纵向分析和地区层面的横向比较,发现：能源消费结构调整、产业结构是能源消耗强度的重要影响因素;我国的能源利用效率与美日等发达国家,巴西、墨西哥等发展中国家相比都存在较大差距,改进和提高能源利用效率已成为我国的当务之急;国内能源利用效率较高的省份主要是北京、上海和广东,与其经济发展水平、能源消费结构密切相关。因此,我国应提高优质能源消费比重,推动产业结构的优化升级以优化能源消费结构;推动对外贸易结构的转变,提升我国在全球价值链分工中的地位,通过技术进步提高我国的能源利用效率和降低环境污染强度;制定有区别的区域节能目标和政策措施,既要考虑一般性影响因素,也要考虑本地区特殊影响因素,促进地区经济、能源和环境社会的协调发展。     

The end of the internet rush

The concept of natural growth in competition is being exploited to produce forecasts for the use of Internet worldwide. Population trends and Internet-user trends indicate that the percentage of the population using the Internet is slowing down everywhere despite large discrepancies: 68% in the US, 45% in Europe, and 8% in the rest of the world. Whereas new growth phases with slow rates of growth should be expected from the third world, the boom years of Internet explosion are over. Significant growth in the use of Internet in the rest of the world must await for a couple of decades.     

Citibank; Citibank,Nader and The Facts

This paper aims to understand how Internet users may improve their social capital by investing in online social activities. We argue that the Internet can be a convenient and efficient means of maintaining existing social ties and/or of creating new ties. We seek to identify the determinants of online investments in social capital and the nature of the interaction with traditional forms of investment in social capital. Using a Luxembourg household survey, the econometric results reveal a significant positive impact of volunteer activities and trust (two measures of social capital) on online investments to maintain social capital, but more ambiguous results are found between online investments and face-to-face contacts with friends. By contrast, online investments to create new ties are poorly related to the Internet users' existing social capital, but depend on the opportunity cost of time.     

互联网应用与创业绩效:社会资本的中介作用

借助社会资本理论,探究了与企业经营密切相关的互联网应用——信息获取与社交沟通如何通过社会资本积累对创业绩效产生影响。利用来自中国2432家创业企业的调研数据进行实证研究。结果显示:社会资本中的服务者联系对互联网应用的信息获取维度与创业绩效的关系起部分中介作用;社会资本中的参与者联系对互联网应用的社交沟通维度与创业绩效的关系起部分中介作用。     

Hand pollination,mass spraying,and hybrid seedlings: Do these technologies affect the welfare of smallholder cocoa farmers in Ghana?

Adoption of cocoa production technologies has the potential to improve productivity and welfare of smallholder producers in low-income countries. While studies investigating synergies in agricultural technologies are growing, empirical evidence on the determinants and impacts of adopting multiple cocoa production technologies on smallholder farmers' welfare is scarce. Therefore, this study contributes by analyzing the determinants and effects of adoption of multiple cocoa production technologies on the welfare of smallholder farmers in Ghana. To achieve this, we used the multinomial endogenous switching regression and multivalued inverse probability regression adjustment models to a random sample of 2233 cocoa farmers from Ghana. The results show that various socioeconomic characteristics (e.g., farmer's age and experience), resource constraints (e.g., land ownership and credit access), market-related factors (e.g., distance to the market), and production shocks (e.g., rainfall) influence the adoption of multiple cocoa production technologies. Furthermore, the results reveal that adopting multiple production technologies significantly improves cocoa yields, gross income, per capita consumption expenditure, and reduces household food insecurity. Therefore, policies, such as financial support, need to be aimed at improving and strengthening smallholder cocoa producers' capacity to adopt synergistic conventional and non-conventional cocoa production technologies to maximize smallholder farmers' welfare.     

产业结构变动对能源消费影响的实证分析——以浙江省为例

产业结构变动是影响能源消费的重要因素。采用对数线性回归模型分析了浙江省的产业结构变动对能源消费的影响,研究表明,第三产业对能源消费的影响最为巨大,第二产业次之,第一产业对能效消费的影响较小,因此浙江省的产业结构变动在总体上对于节能的影响较弱。进而提出,浙江省在第三产业中应积极推进清洁生产,倡导适度消费。     

Endogenous Land use and the Ricardian Valuation of Climate Change

The Ricardian technique uses cross-sectional variation in the capitalized value of climate in land to infer the agricultural costs or benefits of dynamic climate change. While a practical approach for predicting the consequences of global warming with readily available data, it may yield biased results when land-use decisions depend on the climate attributes being valued and when land has unobserved attributes that differ with the use to which it is put. This paper illustrates the conditions under which such a bias will occur, describes an empirical model that corrects for it, and estimates that model with agricultural census data from Brazil. The approach, moreover, allows constraints on adjustment to be explicitly incorporated into the Ricardian framework, relaxing one of that technique’s most conspicuous assumptions. I would like to thank Patrick Bayer, Steven Berry, Robert Evenson, Michael Hanemann, Robert Mendelsohn, Bill Nordhaus, Kerry Smith, Karl Storchmann, two anonymous referees, and seminar participants at the University of California – Santa Barbara and the Research Triangle Institute for their useful insights and helpful comments. All remaining errors and omissions are my own. Fabiana Tito provided excellent research assistance, and Denisard Alves and Robert Evenson generously supplied the data.     

什么导致了中国城镇家庭的消费不平等

以消费不平等作为反映经济不平等的重要指标,本文系统研究了中国城镇家庭消费不平等的成因。采用中国跨省区城镇家庭调查数据,基于再中心化影响函数的实证分析结果显示：我国城镇家庭的收入与净资产的不平等是导致其消费不平等的重要原因。此外,户主的性别、婚姻状况、健康状况、宗教信仰以及家庭人口结构等因素也对城镇家庭消费不平等有着不同程度的显著影响。