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1.
变量间的相关结构是考察变量联合分布特征的首要任务。最经典的是线性相关系数,然而由于线性相关系数是建立在正态分布假设基础上的,存在着很多的局限性,所以,引入了用Copula函数表示的秩相关和尾相关测度。用Copula函数表示的秩相关和尾相关测度比较稳健,不易受极端值影响,且不需要正态分布假设。最后通过模拟得到了上市公司t-Cop-ula的秩相关和尾相关测度。 相似文献
2.
We propose a generalized procedure that combines conventional price transmission analysis with copula-based dynamic tail dependence, to examine price relationships under extreme conditions. This approach is used to examine Ukrainian wheat markets where export restrictions combined with price surges, 2006–2008 and 2010–2012, have contributed to a turbulent market. The results indicate that domestic prices were effectively insulated from world price shocks, but that a ‘rocket and feathers’ price relation held between domestic flour and wheat prices. These asymmetric price co-movements changed with the degree of restrictiveness of the export prohibitions. 相似文献
3.
Roman Matkovskyy 《Bulletin of economic research》2020,72(4):404-416
This paper examines affluence and poverty interdependence across 185 countries and its evolution over 1969–2014. To estimate affluence and poverty interdependence and derive tail interdependences the tail copulae are applied to multivariate density function. The tail coefficients are estimated in the non-parametric way as in Schmidt and Stadtmüller (2006). The estimates show, that poverty is less interdependent and continue to decrease, while affluence has asymptotically high global dependence, meaning a higher global dependence on and sensitivity to the well-being of the affluent countries. The received results derive the pattern of the extreme interdependence and can help to identify poverty and affluence spill-over across countries and regions and calculate the average sensitivity of a country to these phenomena on the global level and can potentially help in poverty reduction strategies within the Sustainable Development Goal by the United Nations. 相似文献
4.
Franziska Dorn;Rosalba Radice;Giampiero Marra;Thomas Kneib; 《Review of Income and Wealth》2024,70(2):395-419
Empirical research on poverty today often goes beyond a focus on income to consider other dimensions of well-being. However, relatively few multidimensional poverty measures explicitly consider time-use, despite its particular relevance to women's double burden of paid and unpaid work. We construct a bivariate relative poverty line between income and leisure, based on their joint distribution in the population. Because the strength of the dependence between income and leisure influences the vulnerability to poverty, we incorporate distributional regression into copula models. Utilizing the 2018 Mexican National Survey of Households, Income and Expenses, we investigate differences in bidimensional poverty with respect to gender and ethnicity. We find that the fraction defined as bidimensional poor is 18 percent points higher than the poverty rate computed from separate time and income measures. Those below the relative but above the absolute poverty line are primarily non-indigenous women whose poverty is made visible by our approach. 相似文献
5.
Alexander Plum 《Applied economics letters》2017,24(18):1289-1293
In this study on Great Britain, we estimate the labour market and income process of prime-aged men simultaneously and control for spillover effects. Evidence is presented that the risk of becoming unemployed and poor increases with the duration of unemployment and decreases with the duration of employment. Moreover, the experience of poverty influences the labour market and income prospects negatively, though on a much smaller scale than does the labour market position. 相似文献
6.
Kuang-Liang Chang 《Applied economics letters》2018,25(2):78-82
This article aims to investigate whether stock and real estate investment trust (REIT) returns have asymmetric downside and upside co-movements. The investigation is carried out by employing a mixture copula with Markov-switching coefficients for weight, upper tail dependence and lower tail dependence. Empirical result demonstrates that an asymptotic independence and a positive relationship, which has greater dependence in the left tail than in the right tail, coexist. The empirical result provides useful information for making portfolio decisions. In the independent state, the inclusion of stock and REIT indices in a portfolio builds a diversified portfolio. However, a portfolio with stock and REIT assets cannot get the benefit of risk reduction in the positive dependence state. 相似文献
7.
Fumitaka Furuoka 《Applied economics letters》2017,24(15):1102-1106
This article proposes a new unit root test to analyse unemployment hysteresis. The test is able to incorporate cross-sectional dependence, unattended nonlinearity and unknown structural breaks in the time-series data. This study used data on unemployment in five European countries. The findings indicated that conventional unit root tests failed to reject the null hypothesis of hysteresis for all countries. However, the newly proposed unit root test was able to reject the null hypothesis for the Spanish unemployment rate. 相似文献
8.
Daniel Reed Bergmann Jose Roberto Ferreira Savoia Claudio Felisoni de Angelo Eduardo Augusto do Rosário Contani Fabiana Lopes da Silva 《Applied economics》2018,50(51):5510-5520
Many publications, that treated with Portfolio Management, were devastating for all asset allocation models in the context of portfolios. The elimination of extreme events (asymmetric or tail dependence) during the portfolio construction process can reduce the skills of asset managers to reduce risk through diversification. The copula theory allows us to calculate an alternative to measure the dependence of extreme events in assets through the index lower tail dependence. We check that the strategies with tail dependence overcame Talmud rule, the Markowitz model and the model of Tu and Zhou by simulating 1,000 portfolios with 3, 5, 10 and 20 randomly selected assets from DJIA for the period 03/1990 until 12/2016. We conclude that models of tail dependence and Markowitz had more performance ex-ante than Talmud and the Tu and Zhou model for portfolios with 3, 5, 10 and 20 assets. Tail dependence models overcome Markowitz, in terms of cumulative return, in over 60% of months considered in the analysis. The results indicate that the Talmud rule should be discarded in a context of constructing portfolios with individual stocks ahead strategies with tail dependence. 相似文献
9.
This paper proposes a novel method to analyze multidimensional poverty by using a large set of feasible weights to summarize the information about the poor, which enables remaining agnostic about the relative importance given to different poverty dimensions. This method allows for the calculation of the individual probability of being poor in a multidimensional perspective. The distribution of individual probabilities can then be combined with Generalized Lorenz dominance techniques to derive unanimous consent for a wide class of social welfare functions with a minimum load of value judgments. The innovations proposed here allow to move from a dual definition of poverty, where poor and non-poor individuals are classified in a mutually exclusive context, to a continuous measure of deprivation capturing both the extensive and intensive margin of multidimensional poverty. The empirical application of the method consists of measuring multidimensional poverty in ten selected countries using four waves of EU-SILC data (2008–2014). 相似文献
10.
We estimate the effect of financial inclusion on transition probabilities into/out of poverty. By exploiting a longitudinal sample of Italian households between 2002 and 2016, we find that financial inclusion is effective in both reducing the likelihood of entering poverty and helping the poor to climb out of it. According to our estimates, access to deposit accounts reduces the risk of falling below the poverty line by 2.7 percentage points (pp) and increases the chance of exiting poverty by 4.4 pp. Significance and magnitude of such effects are confirmed when considering different poverty thresholds and definitions, alternative proxies for financial inclusion as well as alternative empirical strategies. 相似文献
11.
在刻画和估计资产联合损失分布函数的基础上对开放式基金VaR风险进行比较分析。在极值情况下有两种算法：一种是半参数法,采用GPD分布来拟合损失分布的尾部和核密度分布拟合损失分布的中间部分,运用copula函数来刻画资产损失的相依结构;另一种是非参数法,用Bootstrapping和FHS方法对收益率进行抽样和模拟。经过实证分析发现在较低置信水平下,宜于采用非参数法;而在较高置信水平下,采用半参数法则更合适,这也充分说明半参数法适合在更极值情形下对开放式基金估计VaR风险。 相似文献
12.
Noureddine Benlagha 《Applied economics》2013,45(31):3849-3860
This article investigates the dependence structure related to four French nominal and index-linked bonds with various maturities and reference indices. To achieve this aim, we estimate various copulas to select the appropriate one for our data. We also compare results obtained using the copula method with multivariate dynamic conditional correlation GARCH (DCC-GARCH) modelling. The major issue in this study is that the best copulas used to model the dependence among bond returns are the Plackett and Student models. We also find a dynamic correlation between bond returns. In particular, the relationship between nominal and indexed bonds is characterized by an asymmetric dependence. Moreover, the results obtained by the copula approach are confirmed by those obtained by multivariate GARCH modelling. Our empirical study provides a useful method that may be employed by decision-makers to quantitatively introduce dependence and spillover effects in their bond issuance policy. For investors, we propose optimal investment combinations in bonds with respect to their investment horizons. 相似文献
13.
Osama Ahmed 《Applied economics》2018,50(47):5094-5109
This study assesses price transmission along the Egyptian tomato food marketing chain in the period that followed the Arab Spring, which accentuated economic precariousness in Egypt. Static and time-varying copula methods are used for this purpose. Results suggest a positive link between producer, wholesaler and retailer tomato prices. Such positive dependence is characterized by asymmetries during extreme market events that lead price increases to be transferred more completely along the supply chain than price declines. 相似文献
14.
We use the 2015–2018 European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions panel data and a dynamic bivariate probit model to estimate the impact of childbirth on the risk of poverty in 25 European countries. We model both poverty and childbirth mechanisms, identifying genuine state dependence and accounting for feedback effects from past poverty to childbirth. We find that childbirth slightly increases the risk of poverty in Europe, but some heterogeneities emerge at the country level. When disentangling the effects of childbirth conditional on past poverty status, it appears that childbirth determines redistributive effects possibly induced by welfare systems. We find evidence of genuine state dependence and suggests that discouraging factors induced by the experience of poverty itself has increased over time. The risk of poverty is triggered by the presence of dependent members in the household, while education and employment stability are helpful to combat poverty. 相似文献
15.
In this paper we propose a new index of individual poverty in the longitudinal perspective, taking into account the way poverty and non‐poverty spells follow one another along individual life courses. The Poverty Persistence Index (PPI) is based on all the pairwise distances between the waves of poverty. The PPI is normalized and it assigns a higher degree of (longitudinal) poverty to people who experience poverty in consecutive, rather than separated, periods, for whom the distances from the poverty line are larger along time and moreover, when the worst years are consecutive and/or recent. We also propose an aggregate index of persistence in poverty (APPI) in order to measure the distribution of the persistence of poverty in a society, and evaluate at once the diffusion of poverty, its depth, duration, and recentness. The indices are tested in comparison with other measures from the literature both at the individual as well as at the societal level. 相似文献
16.
ABSTRACT We study the performance of diamonds compared to gold and other precious metals in mitigating the tail risk of a diversified equity market portfolio over the period June 2007 to October 2018. Our results display a diversification benefit of some diamond indices, which also improve the portfolio reward-to-risk ratio. To corroborate this evidence, we study the dependence structure and tail dependence of diamonds and a broad equity market portfolio and compare it to the dependence obtained with gold and other precious metals. Results from fitting a bivariate copula show that the average left tail dependence reaches its minimum when diamonds are used. We also show that using shares of diamond-mining companies does not provide the same benefits. 相似文献
17.
Ibrahim Ergen 《Applied economics》2013,45(19):2215-2227
This article examines tail dependence, the benefits of diversification and the relation between the two for emerging stock markets. We find most emerging equity markets are independent in limiting joint extremes. However, the dependence in finite levels of extremes is still much stronger than the dependence implied by multivariate normality. Therefore, simple correlation analysis can lead to gross underestimation of the chances of joint crashes in multiple markets. Assuming risk-averse investors guarding against extreme losses, diversification benefits are measured for each two-country optimal portfolio by the reduction in quantile risk measures such as value-at-risk and expected shortfall relative to an undiversified portfolio. It is shown that tail dependence measures developed from multivariate extreme value theory are negatively related to diversification benefits and more importantly can explain diversification benefits better than the correlation coefficient at the most extreme quantiles. 相似文献
18.
The choice of an appropriate dependence structure in modelling multivariate risks is an important issue because different tail structure embedded in copula leads to a different capital requirement for the institution. We present how to select a well-specified dependence structure to given application data. Using a simple simulation technique, we develop a statistical test to assess the adequacy of a specific dependence structure. We examine the sensitivity of risk estimates to the choice of copulas using the S&P 500 and FTSE 100 stock indices. 相似文献
19.
旨在考察一个较长的时间序列内农村低收入人口贫困状况的动态变化,探明经济增长和收入分配等宏观层面影响因素与贫困指数之间的定量关系与内在联系。基于GQ模型和（模型,选取具备可分解性的FGT指数,采用1990—2006年福建省农村居民收入分组面板数据,分别运用4条低收入标准线对低收入群体的H指数、PG指数、SPG指数和贫困弹性进行模拟。实证结果表明,福建省的经济增长有效减少了绝对低收入人口数量,而收入分配差距的扩大却降低了低收入群体的潜在福利,从而影响农村相对贫困的减少效果。 相似文献
20.
Falling real incomes, rising utility prices and the historically poor thermal quality of the housing stock are some of the main factors that have driven the rise of systemic injustices surrounding energy poverty in the post-communist states of Eastern and Central Europe (ECE). We undertake a socio-spatial and temporal assessment of energy poverty in Hungary, the Czech Republic and Poland, using Household Budget Survey micro-data and the consolidated national results of the EU Survey of Income and Living Conditions. Our results indicate that increases in domestic energy prices and expenditures during the last decade have not been offset by purchasing power gains or energy efficiency improvements, resulting in sustained and growing levels of energy poverty. Capital city regions have fared better than rural areas even if traditional macroeconomic performance indicators do not easily match domestic energy deprivation metrics. We thus question policy approaches that favour income-based solutions and fail to recognise housing- and demography-related vulnerabilities. 相似文献