Impact of infectious disease pandemics on individual lifetime consumption: An endogenous time preference approach

This paper considers the impact of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic on long-term individual lifetime consumption profiles. The framework for the analysis is a model that extends Strulik (2021) to include the government sector, where time preference is determined by individual health damage (deficit) distinct from normal aging. Thus, the health damage caused by COVID-19 changes the rate of time preference and consequently affects the Euler equation for consumption. Our theoretical contribution is the consistent incorporation of public health investment into the existing model to understand the effect of government measures against a pandemic. Numerical analysis based on this model is used to estimate changes in health status over time, trends in the rate of time preference, and individual lifetime consumption profiles, taking into account differences in age at the time of the pandemic and the nature of the government responses. Because the long-term negative economic impact would be enormous, we should avoid advocating for “living with COVID-19” without due consideration. The reopening of the economy must be accompanied by a commitment to the containment and elimination of infections with future novel coronaviruses.     

新冠肺炎疫情冲击下企业生存韧性研究——来自中国上市公司的证据

新冠肺炎疫情冲击下如何识别、测度和提升微观企业生存韧性,是及时应对突发事件和推动经济高质量发展面临的热点问题。本文基于2018-2021年中国沪深A股上市公司数据,将疫情冲击下企业生存指标降幅与恢复增长所需时长作为企业生存韧性的观测指标,首次运用断点回归与双重差分模型相结合的方法对疫情冲击下企业生存韧性进行了定量研究。研究发现,受突发疫情影响,反映上市公司生存韧性的指标呈现出“V”型波动,疫情影响在2~3个季度之后基本得到恢复,表明企业生存具有强大韧性;从地区看,疫情冲击对湖北影响最大,部分疫情轻度地区疫情防控存在“层层加码”现象;从行业看,疫情对交通运输、仓储和邮政业、住宿和餐饮业产生的冲击最大;从产权主体看,疫情影响程度由大到小依次为外资企业、国有企业和民营企业;从规模看,疫情冲击对大型企业成长能力指标负向影响大于中型企业,而对中型企业盈利能力指标负向影响大于大型企业,疫情冲击对小型企业净利润同比增长率产生了显著促进作用,表明小型上市公司具有更大的灵活性和较强的生存韧性。本文认为,应根据企业生存韧性和企业特征选取差异化帮扶政策,科学统筹推进常态化疫情防控和经济社会发展。     

Economic Impacts of SARS/MERS/COVID-19 in Asian Countries

This paper surveys the recent literature on the economic impacts of SARS, MERS, and COVID-19, which Asian countries have experienced in the past two decades. In particular, we provide a detailed summary of how each of the past infectious diseases has impacted on the Asian economies and the extent of that impact. This paper also documents how the governments of Asian countries have responded to the COVID-19 shocks with their economic policies, and discusses the effectiveness of these economic policies to mitigate the COVID-19 shocks on their economies.     

The Australian Labour Market and the Early Impact of COVID-19: An Assessment

From March to June 2020 was the most dramatic four months in the history of the Australian labour market. Never before has a such a substantial decrease in labour demand (and partial reversal) occurred so quickly. In this article, we present an overview of the early impact of COVID-19: the main drivers it brought into play and the consequent labour market developments. Aggregate effects and how impacts differed by type of job and worker are described. We conclude with a brief review of the main government response to COVID-19, the JobKeeper program.     

Material and nonmaterial impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic: Evidence from a low-income country

How have COVID-19-related restrictions affected consumption levels and life satisfaction in low-income countries? We conducted phone surveys with 577 households in Liberia to compare consumption patterns across three points in time: November 2019 (pre-COVID-19), May 2020 (short term), and September 2020 (medium term). This article analyzes the impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic and the related restrictions on food and nonfood consumption, which we categorize as “material” welfare and life satisfaction, which we categorize as “nonmaterial” welfare. We find differences between food and nonfood consumption patterns under pandemic conditions. In particular, consumption by households dependent on food and labor markets was negatively affected by the pandemic. In terms of life satisfaction, we find that most respondents perceived their lives to have worsened due to the pandemic.     

Economic resilience in times of public health shock: The case of the US states

Does adopting social distancing policies amid a health crisis, e.g., COVID-19, hurt economies? Using a machine learning approach at the intermediate stage, we applied a generalized synthetic control method to answer this question. We utilize state policy response differences. Cross-validation, a machine learning approach, is used to produce the “counterfactual” for adopting states—how they “would have behaved” without lockdown orders. We categorize states with social distancing as the treatment group and those without as the control. We employ the state time-period for fixed effects, adjusting for selection bias and endogeneity. We find significant and intuitively explicable impacts on some states, such as West Virginia, but none at the aggregate level, suggesting that social distancing may not affect the entire economy. Our work implies a resilience index utilizing the magnitude and significance of the social distancing measures to rank the states' resilience. These findings help governments and businesses better prepare for shocks.     

疫情对经济的影响与“灾害适应型经济”的转型

新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情对中国乃至世界经济产生了巨大的冲击。疫情的冲击颠覆了传统经济学的认知，需从理论上对经济衰退的原因和机制重新认识，特别是对疫情之下“非常态经济”及其与“常态经济”之间的关系加以研究；疫情的冲击亦暴露出现有的经济系统存在的问题，需要推动经济的转型，打造“灾害适应型经济”。本文基于辩证思想，从负面和正向两个方面来研究疫情对经济的影响，充分发掘新动能，利用新机会，推动中国经济向“灾害适应型经济”转型，实现中国经济的可持续、高质量发展。     

疫情对经济的影响与“灾害适应型经济”的转型

新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情对中国乃至世界经济产生了巨大的冲击。疫情的冲击颠覆了传统经济学的认知,需从理论上对经济衰退的原因和机制重新认识,特别是对疫情之下"非常态经济"及其与"常态经济"之间的关系加以研究;疫情的冲击亦暴露出现有的经济系统存在的问题,需要推动经济的转型,打造"灾害适应型经济"。本文基于辩证思想,从负面和正向两个方面来研究疫情对经济的影响,充分发掘新动能,利用新机会,推动中国经济向"灾害适应型经济"转型,实现中国经济的可持续、高质量发展。     

后疫情时代中国智能驾驶创新扩散特征研究——基于创新扩散理论深度调研

基于罗杰斯创新扩散理论,采用立意抽样法,对涵盖智能驾驶创新扩散源、潜在受用群体的25家典型机构中的95名受访者进行深度调研,结合资料分析、现场观察等质性研究法,勾勒中国智能驾驶创新扩散实践经历新冠肺炎疫情前后呈现的不同创新属性扩散模式特征。结果发现：①新冠肺炎疫情虽然在一定程度上消解了L1—L5级智能驾驶创新扩散源与政府及限定场景潜在受用群体创新属性之间的矛盾,却将新矛盾聚焦于非专业人士教育培训与操作易用性诉求上;②新冠肺炎疫情加快了政府及限定场景潜在受用群体对智能驾驶创新的认知进程,使得智能驾驶创新劝服与决策过程直接进入实施阶段;③智能驾驶创新采纳者钟形曲线分布发生偏移,原先属于落后者、晚期大多数类别的潜在受用群体不断向早期大多数类别身份转换。最终,提出积极寻求疫情与复工场景应用机会、定向开发并拓展产品线、加速技术迭代与升级等应急举措,以面对突发性公共危机时能够继续维系有效的扩散实践。     

新冠疫情冲击下全球价值链重构：更具韧性商业生态系统的涌现

新冠疫情引发了全球价值链（GVC）的破坏性结构重构，增强系统应对未来突发事件冲击的韧性成为重构的主要方向。本研究以松散耦合理论为基础，聚焦分析GVC结构形态及其与系统韧性的联动，识别GVC以结构重构来提升系统韧性进而响应突发事件冲击的演化模式，对GVC松散耦合结构在新冠疫情冲击下产生响应性演化的机制做出理论性解释。本文基于现实GVC系统结构正在发生破坏性重构的判断，在提炼“系统结构重构+系统韧性提升”共演模式的同时，指明GVC的未来高级存在形态是更具韧性的商业生态系统。为加速此类新型GVC的构建，本研究对更具韧性商业生态系统典型结构特征进行了剖析，以阐释其涌现过程及其长期性，识别出具体的涌现路径，并依此为中国企业和政府携手推进更具韧性商业生态系统涌现提供借鉴与实践指导。     

Economic research in Canada: Evolution and convergence

We describe the history and current state of economic research in Canada, including the role of the Canadian Economics Association (CEA) and other institutions. Our paper is organized around two central questions. Is Canadian economic research distinctive? And should it be more distinctive? We argue that a distinct Canadian “school” of economics existed in the past, but that economic research in Canada has converged on an evolving global standard in both method and topics. We ask whether this convergence serves the Canadian public interest and we raise some questions about the future of the CEA and its flagship journal, the CJE.     

The People’s bank of China’s response to the coronavirus pandemic: A quantitative assessment

The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) has implemented numerous measures to cushion the impacts of the COVID-19 health crisis on the Chinese economy. Since the current monetary policy framework features a multi-instrument mix of liquidity tools and pricing signals, we employ a dynamic-factor modelling approach to derive a composite indicator of China’s monetary policy stance. Our quantitative assessment shows that the PBoC’s policy response to the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic has been swift and decisive. Specifically, our estimates reveal that the PBoC has implemented novel policy measures to ensure that commercial banks maintain liquidity access and credit provision during the COVID-19 crisis.     

技术进步偏向、创新要素配置与经济韧性

基于2006—2020年中国内地31个省域面板数据,从影响传导机制、非线性特质角度探究技术进步偏向对经济韧性的影响效应。结果发现：(1)技术进步偏向对经济韧性具有显著正向影响,这一结论在稳健性与内生性检验中依然成立;(2)就作用机制而言,创新要素配置是影响技术进步偏向作用于经济韧性的重要机制;(3)门槛模型检验结果显示,技术进步偏向指数及其子维度与经济调整适应能力不存在非线性作用关系,但与经济创新转型能力具有非线性关系。因此,要合理引导技术发展方向,发挥技术进步偏向的积极作用;充分发挥“有效市场”和“有为政府”的合力作用,优化创新要素配置;以技术创新、理念革新与机制鼎新抵御潜在风险,增强经济韧性。     

Evaluating the effectiveness of labor market interventions on reducing the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic

This paper evaluates whether different labor market policy interventions taken in response to the COVID-19 pandemic have been effective in reducing its adverse impacts. We construct a database covering 165 countries and 39 labor market interventions grouped into four pillars: stimulating the economy and jobs (pillar 1); supporting enterprises, employment, and incomes (pillar 2); protecting workers (pillar 3); and social dialogue (pillar 4). The results revealed that measures taken under pillars 1, 2, and 3 have reduced the impacts of the pandemic on economic growth; measures under pillar 4 were significantly associated with reducing its impacts on employment and those under pillar 2 with reducing its impacts on working hours.     

How Productive Is Workplace Health and Safety?

In this paper, we investigate the causal impact of workplace health and safety practices on firm performance, using Danish longitudinal matched employer–employee data merged with unique cross‐sectional representative firm survey data on work environment conditions. We estimate standard production functions, augmented with workplace environment indicators, addressing both time‐invariant and time‐varying potentially relevant unobservables in the production process. We find positive and large productivity effects of improved physical dimensions of the health and safety environment, specifically, “internal climate” and “monotonous repetitive work”.     

Toward a North American Security Perimeter? Assessing the trade,FDI, and welfare impacts of liberalizing 9/11 security measures

This paper examines the trade, FDI, and welfare impacts of (liberalizing) 9/11 security measures at the Canada–US border. First, the study provides econometric estimates of the impact of post 9/11 security measures on bilateral (US–Canada) trade flows. Second, we compute sectoral tariff rates “equivalent” to the 9/11 security measures using these econometric estimates together with a three-region nine-sector general equilibrium model. Finally, we assess for both the Canadian and the US economies: 1) the (general equilibrium) impacts on trade, FDI, and welfare, of (liberalising) the 9/11 US security measures and 2) the economic impacts of a change of security paradigm toward a North American Security Perimeter within a Customs Union that would liberalize the Canadian and US 9/11 security measures at the Canada–US border and shift them at the external security perimeter.     

COVID-19 fatalities and internal conflict: Does government economic support matter?

This study examines the association between COVID-19 mortality rates and internal conflict and investigates the possible moderating role of government economic support during the pandemic years of 2020 and 2021. Our main hypothesis suggests that countries with lower levels of government economic support are more likely to experience a positive correlation between higher COVID-19 mortality rates and the emergence of internal conflict. Using cross-country data from over 100 countries and controlling for various factors that may influence internal conflict, our analysis provides some support for this hypothesis. The results suggest a possible moderating role for government economic support, with the evidence indicating a weakening or elimination of the association between COVID-19 mortality rates and internal conflict when government economic support is adequate. However, the moderating effect of government economic support is not always significant, and caution is needed when interpreting the results. Our analysis also highlights the potential risks associated with low levels of government economic support during the pandemic. Specifically, we find that in countries where the government's macro-financial package in response to the pandemic is less than approximately 25% of GDP, there is a possible risk of growth in civil disorder resulting from increased COVID-19 deaths per million.     

Economic reforms and human development: evidence from transition economies

Do market-oriented economic reforms result in higher levels of human well-being? This article studies the impact of macro-level institutional and infrastructure reforms on the economic, educational and health dimensions of human well-being among 25 transition economies. We use panel data econometrics based on the LSDVC technique to analyse the effects of market-oriented reforms on the human development index (HDI), as a measure of human well-being, from 1992 to 2007. The results show the complexity of reform impacts in transition countries. They show that institutional and economic reforms led to positive economic effect and significant impacts on other dimensions of human development. We find some positive economic impacts from infrastructure sectors reforms. However, not every reform measure appears to generate positive impacts. Large-scale privatizations show negative effects in health and economic outcomes. The overall results show the importance of the interaction among different reform measures and the combined effect of these on human development.     

Accounting for Ecosystems

Millennium Ecosystem Assessment documented the importance of ecosystem services. It is therefore important to include these services in the national system of economic accounts. This requires estimation of “accounting prices” for ecosystems, that is, the marginal value of a change in the size of the system. This raises a number of questions: What do we mean by the “size” of the system? What is the dynamics of the system? How do we quantify the impacts on services from a change in the size of the system and finally how do we value these impacts? We discuss these questions in a few examples of ecosystems, and valuation as such is not the major problem. The major problem is the lack of information of the appropriate dynamic model for most systems. We therefore suggest that economists and ecologists should set priorities on which ecosystems should be the first objects for study for these; we should test the possibilities of estimating the accounting prices.     

国际“过度旅游”现象述评

“过度旅游”对可持续发展具有关键性的负向影响。人类旅行与旅游活动经历了一个漫长的发展过程,2000年前后,全球大多数国家和地区都已经或开始进入大众旅游时代。旅游发展的各种影响——经济的和非经济的、积极的和负面的——都在不断扩大。从总的趋势而言,当人类旅行与旅游活动人数规模、访问区域、增长速度和影响较小的时候,对旅游发展的反对声音多局限在特定地区、时段和人群,但随着旅游规模扩展与速度逐渐加快,“拥挤度”加大的情况下,反对的声音则越来越强烈,甚至开始从情绪上反对转变成社会行动。到21世纪第二个十年的后期,“过度旅游”开始变成一种“全球关注”,关注的群体由最初的旅游目的地居民扩展到学术界、国际旅游机构、旅游业界、国家政府相关机构以及各类媒体,旅游者本身也参与其中。这一关注在2018年形成高潮,“overtourism”正式被英国《牛津英语词典》选入当年的年度词汇。于是,国际社会越来越关注“过度旅游”现象,并以不同的方式确定其含义,评估其影响,探讨产生的原因和谋划应对策略与行动。尽管对“过度旅游”现象的认识还存在着很多分歧,政府、业界、社会乃至旅游者对待这一现象的态度大相径庭,但毕竟这一现象引起了全球的关注,因此,了解和研究这一现象,探讨其发展趋势,应当是旅游相关学术机构的责任。本文旨在为对“过度旅游”现象的来龙去脉做一个初步的梳理,以期推进我国学术界关注这个“全球关注”现象的研究,促进我国旅游业健康有序地发展。也许“过度旅游”在中国尚未成为严重问题,但未雨绸缪、防患于未然是非常必要的。更何况,在全球更加开放,全球化不断深化的国际背景下,一个遍及全球的问题,恐怕中国也很难独善其身。