The Costs of Deception: Evidence from Psychology

Recently, it has been argued that the evidence in social science research suggests that deceiving participants in an experiment does not lead to a significant loss of experimental control. Based on this assessment, experimental economists were counseled to lift their de facto prohibition against deception to capture its potential benefits. To the extent that this recommendation is derived from empirical studies, we argue that it draws on a selective sample of the available evidence. Building on a systematic review of relevant research in psychology, we present two major results: First, the evidence suggests that the experience of having been deceived generates suspicion that in turn is likely to affect the judgment and decision making of a non-negligible number of participants. Second, we find little evidence for the reputational spillover effects that have been hypothesized by a number of authors in psychology and economics (e.g., Kelman, H.C., 1967. Psychological Bulletin. 67, 1–11; Davis, D.D. and Holt, C.A., 1993. Experimental Economics. Princeton University Press, Princeton). Based on a discussion of the methodological costs and benefits of deception, we conclude that experimental economists' prohibition of deception is a sensible convention that economists should not abandon.     

Introduction to Repeated Games with Private Monitoring

We present a brief overview of recent developments in discounted repeated games with (imperfect) private monitoring. The literature explores the possibility of cooperation in a long-term relationship, where each agent receives imperfect private information about the opponents' actions. Although this class of games admits a wide range of applications such as collusion under secret price-cutting, exchange of goods with uncertain quality, and observation errors, it has fairly complex mathematical structure due to the lack of common information shared by players. This is in sharp contrast to the well-explored case of repeated games under public information (with the celebrated Folk Theorems), and until recently little had been known about the private monitoring case. However, rapid developments in the past few years have revealed the possibility of cooperation under private monitoring for some class of games. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: C72, C73, D43, D82, L13, L41.     

Regional Papers of Interest to Economic Educators

Using data collected from graduates who attended four large public universities in 1976, 1986, or 1996, the authors investigate the relationship between studying economics and civic behaviors. They compare students who majored in economics, business, or other majors, and by the number of undergraduate economics courses completed. Coursework is strongly associated with political party affiliation and donating money to candidates or parties, but not with voting in presidential, state, or local elections, nor with the likelihood or intensity of volunteerism. Business majors are less likely to engage in voting and volunteering. More economics coursework is usually associated with attitudes on policy issues closer to those reported in surveys of U.S. economists, while attitudes of business majors are more like those of general majors than economics majors.     

保险经济学研究述评

保险经济学是用一般经济理论来研究有关保险领域问题的一门学科。作为一门独立的学科 ,保险经济学在国外已经得到较大的发展 ,它所探讨的问题和分析方法在主流经济学和金融经济理论中也占有很重要的位置。然而在我国 ,该学科的研究还很不充分 ,很少有人使用规范的经济学研究范式对我国的保险业进行深入而细致的分析。本文按照保险经济学历史发展的逻辑顺序 ,对该学科发展过程中的几个重要方面做了简要评述 ,在此基础上分析了保险经济学在结合我国的实际情况时应注意的几个方面 ,以期引起这方面更深入的讨论。     

Testing for the Presence of a Tremble in Economic Experiments

The classical trinity of tests is used to check for the presence of a tremble in economic experiments in which the response variable is binary. A tremble is said to occur when an agent makes a decision completely at random, without regard to the values taken by the explanatory variables. The properties of the tests are discussed, and an extension of the methodology is used to test for the presence of a tremble in binary panel data from a well-known economic experiment.     

我国政策性农业保险实施效果评价

根据在政策性农业保险试点地区进行实地调研所得的数据,对农户对我国政策性农业保险实施效果的评价结果进行了描述性统计分析。调研结果表明:不同地区的农户对农业保险的需求程度不同,因此其对农业保险实施效果的评价结果也不尽相同;总体来讲,农业保险在稳定农作物产量、稳定农户家庭收入、增强农业抵御风险能力等方面确实发挥了一定的作用,但还未具有明显的长期效果,并未得到广泛认可。     

经济学中的行为研究

经济学的行为研究总的来说遵循由隐含的、先验的幕后假设逐步走向台前的路径.以对主流经济学的经济人行为假设的修正为起点,行为研究的枝蔓逐渐扩散开来,并在行为经济学、实验经济学和制度经济学等分支中扎根,从多角度认识经济行为的细微末节,将经济学研究推向更为微观的领域,逐步实现向有限理性的真实经济活动面貌回归.     

ICT adoption and income diversification among rural households in China

ABSTRACT

Although the determinants of income diversification have been widely examined in the literature, little is known about whether and how information and communication technology (ICT) adoption affects household income diversification. To fill in this gap, this paper examines the impact of ICT adoption on income diversification among rural households in China, utilizing open-access data collected through the China Labour-force Dynamics Survey project. We employ a two-stage treatment effects model to address the potential selection bias issue associated with ICT adoption. The empirical results show that ICT adoption exerts a positive and statistically significant impact on income diversification. Further analyses reveal that ICT adoption is more beneficial to low-income rural households and those residing in eastern and central parts of China when it plays a role in diversifying rural income. Our findings suggest that improving rural education and infrastructure such as roads and broadband facilities can help enhance ICT adoption among rural households, which subsequently increases income diversification.     

从供需分析看新疆农业保险发展

政府对农业保险保费补贴政策的开展,有力地推动了农险事业健康快速的发展,提高了农业保险的保障水平。但是,从新疆农业保险供需双方的实际来看,新疆农业保险存在着“双冷”的局面。本文从新疆农业保险供需出发,提出增强新疆农业保险市场供给能力、释放市场需求总量的有效措施,以促进农业保险的健康发展。     

论新兴科技在农业保险中的应用策略

农业保险有着十分明显的社会效益,发展农业保险的重要性已得到了各界的认同.然而,现阶段的农业保险面临着诸多压力,在农业保险中加大新兴科技的投入以及给予相关的政策扶持是缓解农业保险所面临的根本性问题的关键.在评价科技应用在农业保险中的经济学意义的同时,分析了新兴科技在农业保险中的应用领域,并进一步提出农业保险中科技的应用策略.     

The False Consensus Effect Disappears if Representative Information and Monetary Incentives Are Given

We present an experiment on the false consensus effect. Unlike previous experiments, we provide monetary incentives for revealing the actual estimation of others' behavior. In each session and round, sixteen subjects make a choice between two options simultaneously. Then they estimate the choices of a randomly selected subgroup. For half of the rounds we provide information about other subjects' choices. There we find no false consensus effect. At an aggregate level, subjects significantly underweight rather than overweight their choices. When we do not provide information, the presence of a false consensus effect cannot be detected.     

相互制保险在我国农业保险中的适用性分析

相互制保险公司是保险企业的主流组织形式之一,在国际保险市场上占有重要地位.分析了相互制保险的独特优势,并结合我国农业保险发展的实际情况,对相互制保险在我国农业保险发展中的适用性进行了深入的探讨.     

财政补贴对我国农户农业保险参保决策影响的实证研究——以浙江省为例

2004年,中国开始政策性农业保险试点工作,各级政府通过财政补贴激励农户购买农业保险。本文以浙江省为例,采用Logistic模型,对影响农户农业保险参保决策的因素进行实证分析。研究结果表明：农户对保费补贴政策的了解程度对其参保决策具有统计上的显著影响;保费补贴激励和风险厌恶激励成为推动农户参保的主要因素。据此本文指出,提高农户对政策性农业保险的认知程度和设计符合农户需求的保险险种,能够推动政策性农业保险的深入发展。     

Peer heterogeneity,school tracking and students’ performances: evidence from PISA 2006

This paper analyses the interaction between school-tracking policies and peer effects in OECD countries. Using the Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) 2006 data set, we show that linear peer effects are slightly concave-shaped in both early-tracking and comprehensive educational systems, but generally stronger in the early-tracking one. Second, and more interestingly, the effect of peer heterogeneity goes in opposite directions in the two systems. In both student- and school-level estimates, peer heterogeneity reduces students’ achievements in the comprehensive system while it has a positive impact in the early-tracking one. This reversal effect is robust to different definitions of early-tracking system, to the inclusion of pseudo-school fixed effects and to the exclusion of outlier countries. Finally, peer effects are stronger for low-ability students in both groups of countries.     

论可持续农业生态经济系统

建设现代农业 ,发展农村经济 ,增加农民收入 ,是中国全面迈向小康社会的重大任务。而建设现代农业的关键点又在于大力发展生态农业 ,加大生态农业建设与可持续经营管理力度 ,这是推进新世纪中国现代农业与农村经济健康、快速与可持续发展的必由之路和根本任务。