Valuation Implications of Investment Opportunities and Earnings Permanence

This study investigates the value-relevance of accounting earnings in the presence of investment (growth) opportunities after making two theoretical and methodological research design refinements. First, we test for the incremental effect of growth on firms earnings response coefficients after controlling for the extent of transitory earnings under the assumption that the value-relevance of earnings with respect to growth should be stronger when earnings are more permanent. Second, we perform comprehensive factor analysis using market-based and accounting-based measures to construct a composite proxy for investment opportunities. We find that firms investment opportunities and the relative permanence of current earnings affect the value-relevance of those earnings. Additionally, we find that the interaction between permanent earnings and investment opportunities produces an even stronger price response to earnings.     

Statistically based quarterly earnings expectation models for nonseasonal firms

We present empirical evidence on the relative predictive power of statistically based quarterly earnings expectation models for firms that are characterized as nonseasonal in nature. We are particularly interested in nonseasonal firms for two reasons. First, it appears that a sizable and growing percentage of firms exhibit quarterly earnings patterns that are clearly nonseasonal in nature. We present new evidence that is consistent with this trend. Specifically, 36% of our sample firms (n = 296) are nonseasonal compared to 12% reported in Lorek and Bathke (J Acc Res 22:369–379, 1984) (n = 29); 17% in Brown and Han (J Acc Res 38:149–164, 2000) (n = 155); and 28.2% in Bathke et al. (J Business Inquiry 5:39–49, 2006) (n = 167). Second, we also find that 43.6% of the nonseasonal firms in our sample have no analyst coverage. Therefore, interest in the predictive ability of statistically based models for such firms is greatly enhanced. Our predictive findings indicate that the random walk model provides significantly more accurate pooled, one-step ahead quarterly earnings predictions across 40 quarters in the 1994–2003 holdout period than the first-order autoregressive model popularized in the literature. We attribute the superior performance of the random walk model to at least three contributing factors: (1) its parsimonious nature; (2) the reduced levels of autocorrelation observed in our quarterly earnings data relative to previous work; and (3) a significantly greater frequency of loss quarters evidenced by nonseasonal versus seasonal firms.

What drives the increased informativeness of earnings announcements over time?

Landsman and Maydew (J Acc Res 40:797–808, 2002) document that the information content of earnings announcements has increased over the past three decades, and Francis et al. (Acc Rev, 77:515–546, 2002) conclude that expanded concurrent disclosures in firms’ earnings announcements, especially the inclusion of detailed income statements, explain this increase. We posit and find that the temporal increase in the intensity of the market’s reaction to Street earnings offers a competing explanation for the Landsman and Maydew finding. We also find that expanded concurrent disclosure of GAAP-based information contributes to the temporal increase in the information content of earnings announcements. However, unlike Francis et al., we find that the temporal increase in concurrent balance sheet and cash flow statement information dominates concurrent income statement information once we control for Street earnings.

The Variability of Earnings and Non-Earnings Information and Earnings Prediction

This paper examines the performance of a 'composite' model of earnings prediction that integrates current earnings and current price as predictors of next year's earnings. The results show that current earnings (current price) play a key role in predicting future earnings when the ratio of earnings variance to price variance is low (high). The composite model is superior to univariate time-series models in out-of-sample predictive accuracy for the overall sample, and is substantially so for the group of firms with a high ratio of earnings variance to price variance.     

Why Are Earnings Kinky? An Examination of the Earnings Management Explanation

Prior research has documented a kink in the earnings distribution: too few firms report small losses, too many firms report small profits. We investigate whether boosting of discretionary accruals to report a small profit is a reasonable explanation for this kink. Overall, we are unable to confirm that boosting of discretionary accruals is the key driver of the kink. We caution the use of the ratio of small profit firms to small loss firms as a measure of earnings management. We investigate and discuss a number of alternative explanations for the kink.     

Discounting earnings with stochastic discount rates

This paper presents new equity valuation formulae in closed form that extend the abnormal earnings growth (AEG) valuation of Ohlson [2005. “On Accounting-Based Valuation Formulae.” Review of Accounting Studies 10: 323–347] to the cases of time-varying or stochastic cost of capital as in Ang and Liu [2004. “How to Discount Cash Flows with Time-Varying Expected Returns.” Journal of Finance 59 (6): 2745–2783] or to cases of stochastic interest rates as in Ang and Liu [2001. “A General Affine Earnings Valuation Model.” Review of Accounting Studies 6: 397–425]. Interest rates are modelled by quadratic term structure models, which are not hindered by restrictions to factors correlation or by other shortcomings of affine term structure models in discounting long-term earnings. This is crucial since valuation can be very sensitive to the correlation between the factors driving earnings and interest rates. Positive correlation reduces price-earnings ratios according to US data. Valuation is also sensitive to the ‘volatility’ of abnormal earnings growth. The residual earnings risk-neutral valuation of Ang and Liu (2001) is adapted to quadratic term structure models.     

Firm valuation, abnormal earnings, and mutual funds flow

We examine the valuation effects of overall demand for corporate equities combined with the influence of abnormal earnings and unexpected funds flow. Our results indicate that the expected and unexpected net new total flow of funds into all stock mutual funds do not by themselves have a meaningful effect on firm equity valuation. However, we find the combination of unexpected funds flow and realized abnormal earnings have significant and important valuation effects. Importantly, the valuation impact is greatest for those firms with high earnings growth potential that also operate in an environment characterized by high information asymmetry.

The Differential Persistence of Accruals and Cash Flows for Future Operating Income versus Future Profitability

Prior research provides evidence that a higher proportion of accrued relative to cash earnings is associated with lower earnings performance in the subsequent fiscal year. The result has been widely interpreted as indicative of higher levels of operating accruals relative to cash flows foreshadowing a subsequent earnings reversal, and thus signaling earnings management. We note, however, that earnings performance in prior studies is typically defined as one-year-ahead operating income divided by one-year-ahead invested capital, or a measure of profitability. We find that accruals are more highly associated than cash flows with invested capital in the denominator of the profitability measure. In contrast, accruals and cash flows have no differential relation to one-year-ahead operating income. The evidence is not consistent with accruals having a reversal effect on earnings. This suggests that the lower persistence of accruals versus cash flows may not be due to earnings management but may rather be due to the effect of growth on future profitability.     

The Empirical Relationship Between Earnings Information and Stock Returns

Abstract:

The objective of this study was to examine, using a vector autoregressive model, whether the difference in earnings growth rates caused different reaction speeds in stock prices. Monthly returns of stocks listed in the Taiwan stock market from May 2003 to April 2013 were used as empirical data in this study. The analytical results showed that the returns of portfolios with higher earnings growth rates significantly led those portfolios with lower earnings growth rates when size, trading volume, institutional ownership ratio, and revenue factors were controlled, respectively. This paper finds that the earnings growth rate is a significant determinant of the lead-lag patterns observed in monthly stock returns.     

The pricing of FIREARMs (“Falling Interest Rate Adjustable-Rate Mortgages”)

The purpose of this article is to propose and price a new type of adjustable-rate mortgage: the FIREARM (Falling Interest Rate Adjustable-Rate Mortgage). The interest payments on this mortgage adjust downward whenever interest rates decline, while remaining stable when interest rates increase. The FIREARM is alternatively priced as a prepayable and non-prepayable mortgage with a spread over the short-term interest rate. We price these two instruments and contrast their prices with those of fixed-rate mortgages using the parsimonious assumptions of a non-stationary arbitrage-free binomial term structure model.     

The Accrual Effect on Future Earnings

Earnings manipulation has become a widespread practice for US corporations. However, most studies in the literature focus on whether certain incentives would facilitate managers to manipulate earnings and there has been little evidence documenting the consequences of earnings manipulation. This paper fills this gap by examining how current accruals affect future earnings (the accrual effect) and measuring the size of this effect. We find that the aggregate future earnings will decrease by $0.046 and $0.096, respectively, in the next one and three years for a $1 increase of current accruals. Over the very long-term (25 years), 20% of current accruals will reverse. This negative accrual effect is more significant for firms with high price-earnings ratios, high market-to-book ratios and high accruals where earnings management is more likely to occur. We show that incorporating the accrual effect is useful in improving the accuracy of earnings forecasts for these firms. Accordingly, the empirical results are consistent with the notion that earnings management causes the negative relationship between current accruals and future earnings. In addition, this paper shows that one recently developed accrual model has better performance than the popularly cited model in identifying manipulated earnings.     

Accounting Earnings Processes,Inter-temporal Incentives and Their Implications for Valuation

Accounting measures such as levels and changes in residual earnings are widely used for performance evaluation and executive compensation (Healy, 1985). Quite often, these compensation contracts are of the linear form. In a multiperiod agency setting with hidden actions, where the agent's effort influences the random evolution of a general model of residual earnings, we show that linear compensation contracts based on weighted sum of the levels and changes of residual earnings are indeed optimal. We characterize the contract explicitly and show that the weights are determined by the earnings persistence parameter. Residual earnings are known to be important for valuation too (Ohlson, 1995; Easton and Harris, 1991). In our setting, we demonstrate that residual earnings are also sufficient for valuation. This implies that residual earnings can be used to align incentive goals with valuation objectives. In essence, our paper provides the theoretical underpinnings for linear contracts based on residual earnings and their implications for valuation.     

The Role of Analysts’ Forecasts in Accounting-Based Valuation: A Critical Evaluation

This paper critically evaluates the use of analysts forecasts in accounting-based valuation. Specifically, I assess the usefulness and the limitation of analysts forecasts in predicting future earnings and in explaining the market-to-book ratio, in light of a comprehensive set of 22 explicit information items, including: economic rent proxies, conservative accounting proxies, earnings quality signals, transitory earnings proxies, industry characteristics, and risk and growth proxies. While analysts forecasts capture 45–83% of the information from these sources depending on model specifications, they do not appear to fully incorporate certain information items. In particular, proxies for conservative accounting and transitory earnings are incrementally useful in predicting future earnings; proxies for economic rents, conservative accounting, and risk are incrementally useful in explaining the market-to-book ratio. Collectively, these results validate the use of analysts forecasts as a parsimonious proxy for forward-looking information in accounting-based valuation and suggest how to improve on their use.JEL Classification: D4, G12, M4     

Disagreement over the persistence of earnings components: evidence on the properties of management-specific adjustments to GAAP earnings

We examine disagreement between management and Thomson Datastream over the persistence of earnings components. Using income statement and footnote disclosures, we identify the source and properties of disputed items. Disagreements typically reflect opaque reporting practices (for example, in the case of transitory operating items) and restrictive classification rules (for example, in the case of discontinued operations). Incremental and relative value relevance tests suggest that the majority of management-specific adjustments reflect appropriate classification of earnings components by insiders. Nevertheless, evidence consistent with strategic disclosure does emerge for a subset of management adjustments.

Would Switching to Timely Reviews Delay Quarterly and Annual Earnings Releases?

The SEC recently issued a proposal to modernize and clarify the regulatory structure of securities offerings. The proposal would allow companies to access capital markets on an almost continuous basis but would require strengthening of the role of independent accountants and other gatekeepers in the registration process. The Commission is seeking comment on whether it should add to the proposed practices the fact than an independent accountant performed a timely review under SAS 71 of an issuer's quarterly financial information (SEC, 1998, p. 231). This is the most recent of several proposals, made by the SEC and others, that provides incentives for companies to purchase quarter-end (timely) reviews of their quarterly data. Some managers who currently have their quarterly earnings reviewed only at year-end (retrospective reviews) argue that having a timely review would delay interim earnings releases. Proponents of timely reviews deny that this would occur, and assert that shifting certain review procedures into interim periods would decrease the time needed to release annual earnings.We estimate the quarterly and annual reporting lags that would occur if companies currently selecting retrospective reviews switched to timely reviews. Our results indicate that quarterly earnings release lags would increase, as opponents of mandatory timely review have argued. Switching to timely review would reduce annual earnings release lags only when interim earnings contain unusual components.     

业绩预告披露与盈余管理研究

盈余管理存在的根本原因在于投资者与管理层之间的信息不对称。业绩预告作为上市公司未来经营成果、财务状况与现金流量的预测,在很大程度上会影响投资者对上市公司的评估及其投资决策。从业绩预告披露的特征方面出发,研究业绩预告披露与盈余管理之间的关系,包括业绩预告的性质、预告精确度、预告误差分别与盈余管理程度的关系,结果发现：发布业绩预告的公司,盈余管理水平更高。预告精确度以及预告期间与预测当期盈余管理水平正相关,预测误差与盈余管理水平负相关。当消息类型不同的时候,预测的强制性与否以及＂变脸＂对盈余管理水平的影响不同。结论支持了上市公司财务报告迎合业绩预告披露的说法。     

Meeting or Missing Earnings Benchmarks: The Role of CEO Integrity

This paper examines the role of CEO integrity in determining whether a company's earnings benchmarks will be met, beaten or missed. Prior literature provides evidence that managers have incentives for meeting or beating earnings benchmarks and are rewarded by the market for doing so (Lopez and Rees, 2002; and Skinner and Sloan, 2002). Managers also have incentives to miss their earnings targets for the benefit of a lower strike price on subsequent option grants (McAnally et al., 2008). A CEO's involvement in backdating is taken here as a measure of his or her integrity. This paper shows that CEO integrity significantly influences whether benchmarks are met or beaten. In other words, backdating CEOs are more likely to meet or narrowly beat all three earnings benchmarks examined in the paper: positive earnings, last year's earnings and analysts’ forecasts. At the same time, they are also less likely to narrowly miss a zero‐earnings benchmark. The results presented in this paper further validate the use of benchmark meeting/beating as a measure of earnings manipulation.     

The Value Relevance of Mandatory Non‐GAAP Earnings

This paper examines the value relevance of earnings components where there is a mandatory requirement to report generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) earnings and non‐GAAP earnings, and where the items to be eliminated from GAAP earnings are defined in detail. The setting is different from non‐GAAP earnings disclosures presented in the United States and elsewhere, where managers have discretion over whether to report a non‐GAAP earnings number, and what to exclude from GAAP earnings. Our mandatory setting enables us to report value relevance results that are not confounded by managers' discretionary choices regarding non‐GAAP earnings exclusions. We use price‐level regressions, based on the Ohlson (1995) model, to test for incremental and relative value relevance. The results show that non‐GAAP earnings reported under a mandatory regime have higher value relevance than GAAP earnings. The disaggregation of these items is useful to investors in a setting where managerial motivations are minimized.     

The Impact of Taxing Unemployment Insurance Benefits on Unemployment Duration and Post-unemployment Earnings

In 1979, unemployment insurance benefits became taxableincome for recipients with income above a specified threshold.Further legislation in 1982 lowered the income threshold. Thispaper uses the Continuous Wage and Benefit History (CWBH) database to evaluate the effects of the 1982 change on the compensatedduration of unemployment and post-unemployment earnings. The1982 episode is a particularly useful natural experimentbecause the treatment group (those newly subject to benefittaxation) is the middle income category and the two controlgroups (those whose benefits were already taxed and those whosebenefits still were not taxed) are the high and low income categories.If the two control groups show similar trends in unemploymentduration (or post-unemployment earnings) and the treatment groupshows a strikingly different pattern, this is compelling evidenceof a tax effect. The empirical results suggest that taxing unemploymentbenefits reduced the affected workers' mean compensated durationby more than a week, but did not have a statistically significanteffect on their post-unemployment earnings.