Errata to “Gold shocks, liquidity, and the United States Economy during the National Banking Era” [Explor. Econ. Hist. 35 (1998) 381-404]

This note draws attention to an important data error that is at the center of our paper “Gold Shocks, Liquidity, and the United States Economy during the National Banking Era” (this journal 1998). The gold stock series we used was compiled from the annual reports of the US Treasury, which contains a large drop between May and June, 1907. This drop was an error. We redo our original statistical work with a revised series. Our results are robust to the new gold stock series.     

Identifying the Liquidity Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks for a Small Open Economy: Turkey

This paper proposes a new liquidity measure for a small open economy. The new measure includes the net liquidity provided to the system by a central bank after accounting for the central bank’s involvement in the foreign exchange market. Empirical evidence gathered from Turkey suggests that a positive innovation in liquidity increases output temporarily and that its effect on prices, exchange rate and money are permanently higher.     

美国银行法改革探析

20世纪80年代以来,以放公管制为特征的金融自由化改革在主要发达国家不断深化,美国世纪末的银行法改革具有划时代意义,它将开辟世界范围的银行业、保险业和证券业混业经营的新纪元。然而此次银行法改革的核心内容,正是30年代金融管制体系建立时期所刻意强调的。本文回顾30年代金融服务业分业经营体系建立的背景,及此后金融管制理论的变革,分析80年代以来美国银行法改革的动因,以及世纪末金融服务现代化法案的主要内容和影响。     

后危机时代的流动性过剩与全球流动性管理

金融危机过后全球再次出现了流动性过剩的局面,给金融稳定造成了负面影响。由IMF前总裁康德苏牵头、包括中国央行官员在内的18人研究小组于2011年初发表了关于国际货币体系改革的倡议书《康德苏报告》,提出IMF承担全球最后贷款人职能和建立全球监督机制,以此作为全球流动性管理的重要手段。经济全球化和金融市场的非理性、非线性特征使得全球最后贷款人具有重大价值。中国应当积极推动IMF承担最后贷款人职能,并逐步推进全球监督机制的建立,这不仅有助于国际金融稳定,而且将提升中国在国际货币体系当中的话语权,从而更好地维护中国自身的利益。     

美国：政策见效，经济转好

9月正值雷曼兄弟破产一周年,美国总统奥巴马借此机会发出承诺：虽然面临来自银行、监管机构和国会的反对,但他仍将推行金融改革。从去年九月的华尔街蔓延开的金融危机乃至经济危机,给美国乃至全世界的经济都带来的巨大的打击。但在现在来看,美国经济已经基本企稳,8月份道琼斯经济景气指数再次稳步上升,由7月份的33．6小幅升至35．5,生产者和消费者信心也都出现回升,虽然经济仍面临信贷紧缩、     

美国：经济出现回暖迹象

美国商务部公布数据显示,经过季．节因素调整后,第二季度国内生产总值（GDP）环比下降1．0％,相比于第一季度6．4％的降幅,美国经济的滑坡速度已经趋于温和。第二季度的GDP主要靠净出口与政府的财政刺激政策所提振,分别拉动了1．4％和1．1％;固定投资和去库存对GDP的拖累减弱,分别为-1．8％和-0．8％。     

Chinese Economy and Excess Liquidity

This paper considers five indicators of excess liquidity to verify its existence in China. Based on the analysis, we argue that the People＇s Bank of China and other banks in China are responsible for the excess liquidity in China. Other factors, such as the excess savings resulting from the poor social security network, the asset bubble and the foreign exchange system, fuel banks with abundant liquidity. To tackle the problem of excess liquidity and direct capital into productive sectors, the traditional use of monetary policy alone is not sufficient. The semi-administrative tool ＂window guidance＂ and other macroeconomic control methods are required.     

Labor productivity in the United States and the United Kingdom during the nineteenth century

A number of writers have recently questioned whether labor productivity or per capita incomes were ever higher in the United Kingdom than in the United States. This paper focuses on aggregate and sectoral labor productivity in the two countries during the nineteenth century. We build on earlier work by Broadberry to push comparative productivity estimates back to 1840 based on a time series projection from a 1910 benchmark and checked against a benchmark estimate for 1850. The results indicate that labor productivity in agriculture was broadly equal in the two countries, and that the United States had a substantial labor productivity lead in industry as early as 1840, while the United Kingdom was ahead in services. Hence aggregate labor productivity and per capita incomes were higher in the United Kingdom in the mid-nineteenth century, particularly since the United States had a larger share of the labor force in low value-added agriculture and a smaller share of the population in the labor force.     

The Reconstruction Finance Corporation,the Gold Standard,and the Banking Panic of 1933

The banking crisis of 1933, which forced a national holiday closing the entire U.S. financial system, is often blamed on either publication of the names of banks borrowing from the Reconstruction Finance Corporation, a speculative run on the gold-backed dollar due to fears that president-elect Roosevelt would devalue the currency, or both. Evidence presented here indicates that neither factor started the final banking crisis of the depression. The Michigan bank holiday ignited the panic, resulting in a series of bank holidays and a run on the dollar. This chain of events toppled the United States financial system.     

Exchange Rate Behavior of Canada,Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States

We revisit a significant research topic on exchange rate behavior by restating the test procedures with an appropriate econometric methodology to re-examine three aspects. (i) Does the inflation (price) factor affect nominal exchange rate? (ii) Do relative interest rates affect a country’s exchange rate? (iii) Do the price and interest rate effects hold if controls for non-parity factors are embedded in tests? The quarterly data series for this study are taken over 55 years. The traditional parity condition model with price and interest rate as criterion variables is extended to take into account recently-verified non-parity factors, namely trade, productivity and foreign reserves. The results affirm that both parity factors and also the non-parity factors significantly affect the exchange rates of Canada, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States. In our view, these findings relating to four free-floating currencies help extend our knowledge on how currency behavior is consistent with parity and non-parity theorems using a relevant methodological approach in this study.     

后危机时代下银行业对外开放的制度变革与模式选择

美国银行业在金融危机中遭受了严重的损失,全球经济复苏之路缓慢前行,在这样的时代背景下如何选择适合我国银行业对外开放的模式,如何采取合理策略规避制度变革中的风险,其重要性不言而喻。文章从制度经济学的理论出发,分析我国当前银行业对外开放制度安排的最新进展,阐述制度供求、制度成本与制度变革的关系,提出制度变革的主动防御的总体战略模式和渐进式的具体改革模式,对我国银行业对外开放的制度变革的模式进行前瞻性思考。     

The film business in the United States and Britain during the 1930s1

The film business in the United States and Britain during the 1930s. Film was a most important product in the lives of the people during the 1930s. This article sets out to analyse the underlying economic arrangements of the film industries of the United States and Britain during the decade for producing and diffusing this commodity type to the population at large. It finds a highly competitive industry that was built around showing films that audiences wanted to see, irrespective of the extent of vertical integration. It also examines the nature of the relationship between the two industries and finds an asymmetry between the popularity of British films in the American market and that of American films in the British market. The explanation offered is that the efforts of British firms in the American market were not sufficiently sustained to make a significant impact on American audiences.     

后危机时代我国中小银行的流动性风险管理

2009年下半年全球经济逐步渡过金融危机的恐慌而进入后危机时代,然而,世界经济仍处在多种不确定和不稳定因素的困扰之下。各个国家经济刺激计划带来的通货膨胀问题就是困扰之一。为此,进入2010年以后,我国银行业存款准备金率连续上调,同时,利率也进入到加息通道,存款类金融机构尤其是中小商业银行的流动性日益趋紧,流动性风险管理难度在不断加大。     

外部冲击下的中国与世界经济波动协同性研究

本文通过实证分析表明:在样本期内,中国与各国经济波动的相关系数随时间变动较大。进一步使用面板数据对经济协同性演变背后的动因进行了考察,结果表明:双边贸易程度和金融一体化程度对经济协同性的影响显著为正,而产业内贸易的影响为负;中国与各国之间的货币政策协调程度、财政政策协调程度以及汇率波动程度也对经济波动协同性有一定影响。     

股票市场流动性与宏观经济的影响机制研究

文章利用我国主板和中小板市场数据研究股市流动性与宏观经济之间的影响机制。首先通过构建非流动性指标,发现股票市场流动性与宏观经济运行状态有较强的相关性;然后构建机制转换条件异方差模型,发现股票市场流动性体制转换特性与宏观经济景气度存在较好的对应关系;最后构建股市流动性与宏观经济的向量自回归模型。研究结果表明：中小板股票市场流动性能很好地预测宏观经济的波动,但主板市场预测宏观经济景气度时并不显著。