Factor Price Equality and Biased Technical Change in a Two-Cone Trade Model

We reconsider the effects of long‐run economic growth on relative factor prices across cones of specialization. We model economic growth as exogenous technical change. Allowing for capital biased technical change with a sector bias and for endogenous commodity prices, we find that economic growth may increase or decrease factor price differences across cones. For a neutral demand side and capital biased growth in the most capital intensive sector, we find that economic growth encourages less factor price diversity across cones.     

Theory Analysis of Model for Price Fluctuations in a Single Commodity Market

The price model for a single commodity market is a very important economic model that describes the basic rules for price fluctuations in a single commodity market. In this paper, we investigated the general case for the model, and proved that every positive solution is bounded and we obtained a necessary and sufficient condition for oscillation of every positive solution concerning positive state solution.     

制度因素与东亚双边贸易:贸易引力模型的实证分析

银行与金融、政府干预、黑市活动、资本流动与外国投资、货币政策对东亚经济体出口贸易有重要影响,银行与金融、政府干预、产权、政府负担对东亚经济体进口贸易有重要影响。提高政府干预质量,积极合理地引进国际直接投资,建立并完善公正廉洁高效的司法体系应成为东亚经济体各政府未来重要的政策取向。     

International Trade, Technology Transfer, Growth, and Welfare in a Schumpeterian Model of Endogenous Growth

This paper provides a simple analysis of the role of international technology transfer in the determination of the long-run pattern of trade, growth, and welfare in a two-country world within an endogenous growth framework. It is shown how the possibility and form of technology transfer impinge upon the long-run pattern of trade and therefore long-run growth rates and welfare. The most interesting finding of this paper is that, under certain conditions, there is a case in which restricted trade is growth- and welfare-enhancing compared with free trade.     

Terms of Trade and Welfare for a Developing Economy with an Imperfectly Competitive Sector

The effect of terms of trade on the welfare of a small open economy is analyzed. It exports a homogeneous good and imports some brands of a differentiated good. It also produces some brands of the differentiated good which are not traded. A terms-of-trade deterioration causes resources to move to the nontraded, import-competing sector. The economy's income rises and the price index for the differentiated good falls, resulting in higher welfare. This accords well with the experience of developing economies of East and Southeast Asia.     

Advancing the Multilateral Regional Cooperation in Economy and Trade with the Scheme Reform of Zero Tariffs

China＇s tariff arrangement in the transition period after ＂entry to WTO＂ influences the process of the multilateral trade system in the world. Establishing the free trade area and customs union according to WTO/GATS 1994 article 24, or according to authorizing the clause （Enabling Clause ） to sign the regional trade agreement between developing countries or signed the protocol of economic integration taking promoting and serving the liberalization of trade as purpose according to WTO/GATS article 5, include the regional trade agreement in the multilateral trade system frame to standardize, supervise and coordinate to China, reduce trade protectionism and improve the multilateral trade system＇s influence in the world greatly. Drawing lessons from CEPA and China the system of the manoeuvre ahead of time of overall ＂entry to WTO＂ of ASEAN Free Trade Area and arrange, accelerate multilateral regional cooperation in economy and trade, zero tariff scheme reform favors route choice.     

Estimating Income and Price Elasticities of Trade in a Cointegration Framework

This paper presents further evidence on the empirical regularity known as the 45-degree rule. Income and price elasticities of trade are estimated for 21 countries in a cointegration framework. More specifically, the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) modeling approach and the DOLS procedure are adopted to estimate the long-run structure. The empirical results confirm the existence of a systematic relationship between growth rates and income elasticity estimates: faster growing economies have high income elasticities of demand for their exports but lower import elasticities, which implies that faster growth can be observed without any marked secular trend in real exchange rates.     

Efficiency and Lack of Commitment in an Overlapping Generations Model with Endowment Shocks

This paper considers a pure exchange stochastic overlapping generations model in which, on each date, an economy faces an aggregate endowment shock. On each date, a young agent and an old agent simultaneously decide how much of their respective endowments to transfer to the other agent; however, a young agent cannot make promises about how much he or she will give when old. In this sense, an economy faces a limited commitment constraint. This paper characterizes an efficient intergenerational risk sharing allocation that satisfies a limited commitment constraint, and also studies the role of money and history in a stochastic overlapping generations economy.     

FDI and Outsourcing in a Service Industry: Welfare Effects of Liberalising Trade and Investment

This study examines a foreign firm's entry decision and its effects on the host country's welfare in a model with a composite good in which both commodity and service generate utility for consumers. Along with the commodity it produces, a producer can provide the service by itself or outsource the service. The result shows that the incentive for foreign direct investment (FDI) in the service sector increases under liberalising trade in the final‐good market. Moreover, there exist policy combinations of trade and investment liberalisation, whereby the domestic firms' profitability is traded off with the host country's social welfare when the foreign firm provides a service through FDI or through outsourcing, respectively. Finally, the welfare after simultaneously liberalising trade and investment is not necessarily greater than that under autarky.     

Trade and Indeterminacy in a Dynamic General Equilibrium Model

This paper introduces sector-specific externalities in the Heckscher-Ohlin two-country dynamic general equilibrium model to show that indeterminacy of the equilibrium path in the world market can occur. Under certain conditions in terms of factor intensities, there are multiple equilibrium paths from the same initial distribution of capital in the world market, and the distribution of capital in the limit differs among equilibrium paths. One equilibrium path converges to a long-run equilibrium in which the international ranking of factor endowment ratios differs from the initial ranking; another equilibrium path maintains the initial ranking and converges to another long-run equilibrium. Since the path realized is indeterminate, so is the long-run trade pattern. Therefore, the Long-Run Heckscher-Ohlin prediction is vulnerable to the introduction of externality. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: E13, E32, F11, F43.     

Residential Mobility and the Housing Market in a Two-sector Neoclassical Growth Model

The impact of residential mobility and competitive housing markets on long run growth is examined using a two-sector general equilibrium overlapping-generations model in continuous time. There is an infinity of agents with finite lives who adjust their housing consumption by moving, which is costly. We explore the model's steady-state properties, first with a free housing market, then under rent control when the market clears through restrictions on the frequency of moves. Rent controls do not just reduce welfare; they may increase the steady-state capital-labor ratio.     

贸易自由化、外资并购与寡头市场的福利效应分析--对(Farrell,Shapiro 1990)模型在开放条件下的扩展

本文试用扩展的（Farrell,Shapiro1990）模型,在关税减让为特征的自由贸易化趋势下,对同质产品的横向外资并购带来的价格及福利效应进行边际分析。主要观点：在一定条件下,（1）对行业价格效应的判定,其符号取决于两个变量的权衡,即关税外生性下调导致外商均衡产量的变动和关税下调后外资并购行为引致的并购方整体产量的变动。（2）对一国社会福利效应的判定不存在单一化结论。关税下调后的外资并购行为,其引发的外部福利效应与关税下调前的情况相比,有利程度可能趋于下降,甚至走向反面——变为负效应。但是,关税下调带来的社会福利效应在很大层面上会带来正的福利效应。     

<Emphasis Type="Bold">Climate Policy in a Globalizing World - A CGE Model with Capital Mobility and Trade.</Emphasis>

Book Review

Climate Policy in a Globalizing World - A CGE Model with Capital Mobility and Trade.     

The Nonequivalence of Tariffs and Quotas in a Dynamic Trade Model

The paper provides a novel (and old) argument for the nonequivalence of tariffs and quotas, based on the famous paper by Hotelling published in 1931. Unlike tariffs, quantitative restrictions are inherently dynamic. As long as the foreign exporter earns positive marginal profits, he raises their present value by frontloading sales. As a result, unlike a tariff, equilibrium with a quota exhibits quantity and price dispersion over time. The dispersion may be significant even with small discount rates.     

Diverging Populations and Endogenous Growth in a Model of Meaningless Trade

The endogenous growth literature raises the possibility that countries may grow without bound in terms of per capita income, and that they may do so at different rates. This possibility also exists in neoclassical growth models with diverging populations—populations that grow at different rates. In both cases, however, this means that international inequality of per capita incomes will not only exist but also get worse over time. This paper examines that possibility within a very simple one-sector model that allows for both diverging populations and endogenous growth.     

Imperfect Competition and the Gains from Trade in a Macro Duopoly Model

A general-equilibrium duopoly trade model is developed. In the micro model, constant-elasticity market demand curves produce backward-bending reaction functions. This is combined with a macro analysis in which the real wage is determined competitively, while nominal variables depend on the money supply. Trade can lead to large increases in aggregate output, employment, and real wages. The gains from trade are the result of increases in market size, and greater competition in each market. The benefits of trade are largest when marginal-cost curves slope downward and the labor supply curve is elastic.     

Liquidity, Quality, Production Cost, and Welfare in a Search Model of Money

This paper examines a search model of money with divisible commodities of high and low quality, while keeping the assumptions of indivisible money and unit-inventory constraint. With no direct barter and a higher fixed cost of producing high relative to low quality, an increase in the money stock encourages the production of high-quality output by trading off the larger trading opportunities against the significance of higher fixed cost. As long as the fixed-cost differential between high and low quality is sufficiently small relative to the utility gain from high-quality consumption, the quality improvement outweighs the negative effect of higher money stocks on aggregate production, and hence implies higher welfare.     

全要素生产率、人民币汇率与中国贸易收支——基于跨期最优选择理论的实证研究

文章首先以跨期最优分析框架为基础建立以中国贸易收支为研究对象的理论模型,然后基于中国1999-2009年省际面板数据,运用面板FMOLS估计方法,从全国和地区两个层面对中国全要素生产率、人民币实际汇率与中国贸易收支的关系展开实证分析。研究表明,中国贸易部门内资企业和外资企业的全要素生产率提升均对中国实际贸易余额增长产生了正面影响,其中东部地区的促进作用最为强劲;中国非贸易部门全要素生产率与其实际贸易余额负相关,其中东部和中部地区非贸易部门全要素生产率提升会显著减少该地区的实际贸易差额;人民币实际有效汇率提升对中国实际贸易收支具有显著的负面影响,并按照东部、中部和西部地区依次加重。根据上述分析结果,文章提出了调节中国贸易收支的相关政策建议。     

Pattern of Trade and Economic Development in a Model of Monopolistic Competition

The paper introduces differences in production and transaction conditions between countries into a model of monopolistic competition. It applies inframarginal analysis to show that, as transaction conditions are improved, the general equilibrium may jump discontinuously across different patterns of trade and economic development. A country may export a good in which it has exogenous comparative disadvantage if its endogenous comparative advantage dominates this disadvantage. Countries will choose a trade and development pattern to utilize their net exogenous and endogenous comparative advantages in production as well as in transactions.