多边贸易摩擦演进模式的经济学文献述评

争端解决机制是世界贸易组织的中心支柱和在实际运行中最活跃的部分。本文从多边贸易摩擦演进模式这一新视角切入,就当前经济学领域有关多边贸易摩擦的提起模式、推进模式和解决模式的文献进行了述评。这对处在国际经济摩擦高发期、多边贸易摩擦频率不断提高的我国而言,无疑具有重要的现实意义和参考价值。     

The Evolution of Japan's Aggressive Legalism

Japan's recent trade policy is sometimes characterised as ‘aggressive legalism’ in the sense that it aggressively utilises the multilateral trade rules embodied in the Marrakesh Agreement Establishing the World Trade Organisation in dealing with disputes with its trade partners. This policy may appear to be a marked departure from Japan's past practice of favouring bilateral, non‐legal settlement of trade disputes. Upon closer examination, however, while Japan has been moderately active in using the WTO dispute settlement process for resolving its trade disputes, it behaves more like a country that resorts to surgical strikes on selected targets (usually the United States) under a powerful cover of the European Community. Compared to Japan, Korea's attitude in the WTO is more aggressive. While the Japanese Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) is not content with the status quo and is seeking to expand its aggressiveness in the WTO dispute settlement mechanism, it faces an uphill battle. One of the difficulties facing trade officials in Japan may be the lack of a national system for lodging WTO complaints, open to any citizens or firms, like Section 301 of the US Trade Act of 1974 or the European Trade Barriers Regulation. Nonetheless, in the historical context, Japan is far more aggressive than in the past in utilising the rules of the GATT/WTO to advance its national interests. It will never revert to the infamous practice of bilateralism and grey area measures.     

Do WTO members have more liberal trade policy?

This paper uses 68 measures of trade policy and liberalization to ask if membership in the World Trade Organization (WTO) and its predecessor the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) is associated with more liberal trade policy. Almost no measures of trade policy are significantly correlated with GATT/WTO membership. Trade liberalizations, when they occur, usually lag GATT entry by many years, and the GATT/WTO often admits countries that are closed and remain closed for years. The exception to the rule is that WTO members tend to have slightly more freedom as judged by the Heritage Foundation's index.     

The Dispute Settlement Mechanism of the WTO: A Brief History and an Evaluation from Economic,Contractarian and Legal Perspectives

Any rule‐based system has to include a mechanism for the enforcement of its rules and a means for settlement of disputes about alleged violation of rules. The General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), concluded in 1947, and its successor the World Trade Organisation (WTO) that subsumed it in 1995, embody rules governing the global trading system as specified in various agreements that their members have entered into over time. Naturally, both had a dispute settlement mechanism (DSM). It was a primarily political one in the GATT and was transformed into a largely legalistic one in the multilateral agreement that established the WTO. This paper reviews the history and evaluation of the two DSMs and examines their efficiency based on appropriate criteria. It views them from three alternative and overlapping perspectives: political‐diplomatic, legal‐economic and social. It concludes with a discussion of the unresolved problems in the operation of the WTO's DSM and the prospects of resolving them in the ongoing Doha Round of multilateral trade negotiations.     

Developing Countries as Plaintiffs and Defendants in GATT/WTO Trade Disputes

Developing countries have been increasing their participation in the formal institutions and proceedings of the multilateral trading system. A prominent example is their more frequent involvement as defendants and plaintiffs in GATT/WTO trade disputes. This paper provides an initial economic appraisal of developing country performance in the GATT/WTO dispute settlement system. We measure the economic resolution of these disputes through trade liberalisation gains, and our results suggest that developing country plaintiffs have had more success under WTO disputes than was the case under the GATT. We also document evidence on potential determinants of this success: the capacity for plaintiffs to make credible retaliatory threats and the guilty determinations by GATT/WTO panels. Finally, there is also some evidence that developing countries have recognised the importance of retaliatory threats and have responded by changing their pattern of dispute initiation under the WTO to better take advantage of the instances in which they have sufficient leverage to threaten retaliation and induce compliance with GATT/WTO obligations.     

GATT/WTO与管理贸易

现实中的国际贸易不是自由贸易，国际贸易体制中一直都是自由贸易和贸易保护同时并存，以1GATT／WTO也不是自由贸易组织。管理贸易是指介于纯粹自由贸易和完全贸易保护之间的各种情形，其特点是规则导向、有较大兼容性以及可塑性。管理贸易的发展可以有两个完全相反的方向，而GATT／WTO倡导的贸易自由化实质上是在自由贸易和贸易保护两种成分并存的国际贸易体制中抑制贸易保护、提高贸易自由的程度。     

WTO贸易可持续发展的缺失与改革

作为管理国际贸易的场所,WTO日益重视贸易、环境与发展问题。在WTO运行实践中,与环境有关的贸易争端不胜枚举。虽然WTO将可持续发展思想确立为其基本宗旨,但多边贸易体系逐渐显示出其局限性。WTO需要改革,以建立起可使贸易与环境社会发展目标相容的具有全球意识的贸易环境规则。从长远看,WTO需要建立一个更加公开、公平、安全、非歧视的平衡贸易与环境发展体系。     

The U.S./EU Beef Controversy and a Proposed Framework for Resolving Standards Disputes in International Trade

While world trading institutions such as GATT and its successor, the WTO, have made significant progress in addressing tariff barriers as well as some non‐tariff barriers, trade disputes over product standards appear to be increasing in number and intensity. Product standards refer to measures governments take to ensure that products sold in their home market meet health, safety, and quality requirements consistent with the public interest. The longstanding controversy between the European Union and the United States over the export of hormone treated beef is used as a case study to illustrate the difficulty of resolving product standards disputes.     

Modelling the Extensive Margin of World Trade: New Evidence on GATT and WTO Membership

Recent literature has argued that, contrary to the results of a seminal paper by Rose (2004), General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT)/World Trade Organization (WTO) membership does promote bilateral trade, at least for developed economies and if membership includes non‐formal compliance. We review the literature to identify open issues. We then develop a simple extension of the gravity model that gives rise to an extensive country margin of trade separating positive trade from zero trade country pairs. The model is used to identify WTO membership effects at both the intensive and the extensive margins. Empirical estimation of this model, based on Poisson pseudo‐maximum likelihood methods with exporter and importer fixed effects, allows us to readdress the empirical issue of whether GATT/WTO membership does or does not promote trade. We find that GATT membership was successful on the extensive margin of world trade but not on the intensive margin. For the recent WTO episode (1995–2008), we find consistent and robust evidence for a substantial trade‐creating role of membership which is driven primarily by the intensive margin. WTO membership results in higher bilateral trade of about 40 per cent.     

针对产品生产和加工方法贸易措施的违法性分析

在GATT—WTO体系内部,针对产品生产和加工方法贸易措施的合法性,以及如何规范允许使用的针对产品生产和加工方法贸易措施的讨论甚为激烈,成为最有争议的焦点问题之一。本文根据对WTO协议中的GATT第1条、第3条、第20条,以及《技术性贸易壁垒协议》相关条文和案例的研究,分析了针对产品生产和加工方法贸易措施的违法性及其可能的负面效应,以供进一步的研究参考。     

《关贸总协定》第24条的再解读--规则、案例和展望

《关贸总协定》第24条所规定的区域贸易安排是世贸组织框架下最惠国待遇的例外。区域贸易安排一方面有贸易促进的积极作用,另一方面又因其集团间歧视的特征,一旦被滥用,就会侵蚀世贸组织的非歧视原则,背离关贸总协定/世贸组织实现全球贸易自由化和一体化的目标。《关贸总协定》第24条、乌拉圭回合的《谅解》以及土耳其案的专家组、上诉机构的论述都显示了世贸组织对区域贸易安排越来越多的关注,但现有的制度仍有一些不足,文章从对规则的分析入手,从区域贸易安排与世贸组织的关系定位、争端解决机制、区域贸易协定审查委员会的审查等方面对世贸组织框架下区域贸易安排的完善提出若干建议。     

WTO贸易政策审议机制的运行及中国面临的挑战

贸易政策审议机制是世界贸易组织的三大重要机制之一.中国加入WTO后,在过渡期内世界贸易组织将对中国贸易政策进行一年一审.因此,对贸易政策审议机制的研究引起了政府和企业越来越多的关注.本文在系统论述贸易政策审议机制的主要内容及其作用的基础上,对不同发展程度的成员贸易政策审议情况进行了研究.最后,针对中国国情,提出中国应对贸易政策审议的策略.     

Does International Trade Cause Economic Growth? A Survey

This study surveys the literature on the relationship between international trade and economic growth, and succinctly reviews the role of GATT/WTO in fostering free trade. Most studies support the gains of trade and recognise the substantive contributions of GATT/WTO in fostering free trade; the evidence is, however, not ubiquitously unambiguous. The macroeconomic evidence provides a dominant support for the positive and significant effects of trade on output and growth, while the microeconomic evidence lends larger support to the exogenous effects of productivity on trade, as compared to the effects of trade on productivity. The GATT/WTO remains surrounded by barriers to trade and avowed preferences for preferential trade agreements. The strength of the argument for the gains of trade needs to be evaluated in juxtaposition with several methodological and measurement issues that surround the trade‐growth empirics. Most studies focus on partial equilibrium analysis of trade policy and ignore the general equilibrium aspects of macroeconomic policy. It is difficult to disentangle the effects of trade policies from those of other macroeconomic policies and unequivocally interpret the observed correlations between trade policies and economic growth. Trade is one of the several catalysts of productivity and growth and hence its contribution is contingent on its weight in economic activity.     

日本与WTO争端解决机制

在GATT时代,日本在争端解决机制中比较被动,败诉相对较多。到了WTO时代,日本开始积极参与WTO争端解决机制,积极运用这一机制维护日本的国际贸易利益,并取得了较大的成功,出现了胜多败少的局面。日本这一变化的内在动力来自日本以入世为契机成功实现了贸易政策从以往的保护主义向自由贸易转换,可以在WTO争端解决机制舞台上以自由贸易的形象示人,并为此进行了WTO争端解决机构上诉机构大法官的人事布局,一直保持了日本人的上诉机构大法官的席位。日本的这一成果可以为我国所借鉴。     

The WTO promotes trade, strongly but unevenly

This paper furnishes robust evidence that the WTO has had a strong positive impact on trade, amounting to about 120% of additional world trade (or US$ 8 trillion in 2000 alone). The impact has, however, been uneven. This, in many ways, is consistent with theoretical models of the GATT/WTO. The theory suggests that the impact of a country's membership in the GATT/WTO depends on what the country does with its membership, with whom it negotiates, and which products the negotiation covers. Using a properly specified gravity model, we find evidence broadly consistent with these predictions. First, industrial countries that participated more actively than developing countries in reciprocal trade negotiations witnessed a large increase in trade. Second, bilateral trade was greater when both partners undertook liberalization than when only one partner did. Third, sectors that did not witness liberalization did not see an increase in trade.     

贸易自由化与环境保护的关系:世界贸易组织(WTO)的角色与作用

自上世纪70年代以来,环境问题在贸易谈判中占有越来越重要的地位。随着国际贸易的发展及其带来的环境恶化问题,经济自由化与环境保护的关系更加紧密。世界贸易组织(WTO)作为唯一的国际性贸易管理机构,成为环保与贸易发展问题专家关注的焦点。WTO在对待环保问题上采取一系列积极的措施:WTO的导言特别强调可持续发展的重要性;同时,WTO中设立了贸易与环境委员会(CTE)。尽管如此,WTO在贸易自由化与环境保护问题中应该扮演何种角色仍然受到人们的关注。自由主义学者认为作为贸易管理组织的WTO在环保的问题上过于激进;而环保专家则认为WTO在环保方面过于保守。本文分析了WTO在贸易自由化与环保问题中的作用,从而得出结论:WTO必须做出相应的调整,才能使贸易自由化与环境保护互惠互利,达到双赢的目的。     

The WTO,the Doha Round Impasse,PTAs, and FTAs/RTAs

Beginning in 2001, the Doha Rounds afforded World Trade Organization (WTO) members the opportunity to develop equitable trade rules between the developed and developing member states. The WTO has been successful in advancing multilateral international trade; however, since the Doha Rounds stalemate, it has witnessed the development of more than 300 Preferential Trade Agreements (PTAs) and over 500 Free Trade Agreements (FTAs). This article attempts to answer two questions: (1) has the failure of the Doha Rounds contributed to the proliferation of PTAs and FTAs, and (2) are these agreements threatening the regulatory authority of the WTO, which, in turn, reduces its ability to effectively promote and govern free trade, and its mission?     

WTO争端解决机制改革效用的实证分析

WTO的争端解决机制是一个以规则为导向的组织,被认为是一个公正的国际贸易组织。这也使人们认为在这个进步的机制下,发展中国家的利益会得到好的保护。但是目前还很少有学者对此进行实证研究。文章以2001年至2006年的贸易争端为样本研究对象,研究争端解决机制改革的效用,发现发展中国家作为申诉方会比发达国家作为申诉方获得更多的应诉方让步。而且当应诉方为发达国家时,发展中国家获得让步的可能性较大。     

The ‘Real’ Impact of GATT/WTO – a Generalised Approach

Rose’s result in 2004 that GATT/WTO has no significant impact on bilateral trade triggered off a series of empirical studies. Each of those studies augments Rose’s paper in one specific methodological aspect with the general finding that GATT/WTO significantly fosters members’ trade, although the estimated impact varies between 2 per cent and 195 per cent of trade creation. We combine the methodological contributions of previous studies to overcome these isolated approaches, to account for possible interactions and to develop a more general view on the impact of GATT/WTO. In particular, we find that GATT/WTO promotes members’ trade by around 86 per cent.     

国际贸易政策的两难问题与GATT/WTO体制--GATT/WTO的政治经济学

国际贸易是受政治因素影响最大的经济领域之一，GATT／WTO的规则和体系实际上也反映了这种经济与政治交织的复杂性。国家利益的驱动使得各国政府在贸易政策运用方面处于选择偏向自由贸易或贸易保护的“两难境地”。GATT／WTO在倡导贸易自由化、建设开放的多边贸易体制过程中也不得不兼顾保障各国国家利益的要求，从而形成了以务实、折衷以及规则导向为特征的GATT／WTO理念，来支持和推动国际贸易发展中渐进的但又是持续的贸易自由化取向。