Export Credit Guarantees and Export Performance: An Empirical Analysis for Germany

Recent literature finds that exporters are particularly vulnerable to financial market frictions. As a consequence, exports may be lower than their efficient levels. For this reason, many countries support exporters by underwriting export credit guarantees. The empirical evidence on the effects of those policies is, however, very limited. In this paper, we use sectoral data on export credit guarantees issued by the German government. We investigate whether those guarantees indeed do increase exports and whether they remedy the export‐restricting effect of credit market imperfections both on the sectoral and on the export‐market levels. Exploiting the sectoral structure of a rich three‐way panel data set of German exports, we control for unobserved heterogeneity on the country‐year, sector‐year and country‐sector dimensions. We document a robust export‐increasing effect of guarantees. There is some evidence that the effect is larger for export markets with poor financial institutions and in sectors that rely more on external finance.     

Bank credit,public financial incentives,tax financial incentives and export performance during the global financial crisis

This paper investigates the extent to which access to credit, public financial incentives and tax financial incentives affect export performance using the EU-EFIGE/Bruegel-Unicredit data set, covering firms within Austria, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Hungary and the UK during the 2008 global financial crisis. The results show that firms receiving credit or benefiting from public financial incentives display higher export intensity and export a greater number of product lines compared to those that did not, especially in countries with better access to credit and/or financial incentives during the crisis. Further, firms benefiting from tax financial incentives show a better export performance compared to those that did not, regardless of the degree of access to credit and/or financial incentives in the country in which they operate. In addition, the effect of access to credit and public finance incentives on export performance is found to be size-dependent, while the effect of tax financial incentives is not. We suggest that governments should promote publicly funded financial incentives along with conventional schemes, such as R&D subsidies, to promote exports, particularly during a period of financial crisis.     

SMEs,foreign direct investment and financial constraints: The case of Belgium

This paper explores the problems experienced by small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) with international ambitions in gaining access to debt and equity finance for foreign direct investment (FDI) projects. We develop several arguments for why such small businesses are expected to face severe financing constraints for foreign investments and provide an explorative empirical study with both the demand and supply side of FDI finance. We have interviewed thirty-two Belgian SMEs that carry out FDI, five banks and five venture capitalists. Based on the SME discussions, we have composed a questionnaire that was sent to the interviewed SMEs. The information problems and lack of collateral that often characterize international investment, the home bias of financiers and the capital gearing method used by banks to evaluate small firms’ foreign projects give rise to financial constraints for SMEs’ FDI projects. The reported finance gap hinders small firms’ (international) development and leads to suboptimal home and FDI host country development.     

地方政府债务对工业资本配置效率的非线性影响效应——基于动态面板平滑转换回归PSTR模型的检验

经济新常态下,提高工业资本等要素配置效率是实现经济向高质量增长转变的必然要求。本文在政府主导、投资驱动的工业发展模式下,结合地方债务压力和金融发展差异门限变量,在非线性框架下运用动态面板平滑转换回归模型实证检验地方债务规模与工业资本配置效率的渐进演变关系。研究发现,适度的地方债务规模有助于提高资本配置效率,但随着债务压力增加,举债对资本配置的正效应逐步减弱并产生负效应。究其原因,适度举债能补齐工业基础设施短板,压低土地成本,对工业发展产生杠杆效应,从而提高资本配置效率;但过度举债推升财政风险,占用信贷资源并强化企业融资约束,造成资本配置低效率。此外,研究发现,地方信贷规模提升,能缓解举债的融资约束,促进工业行业间的资本流动;而工业金融深化程度提高,能增强市场竞争机制在要素配置中的作用,缓解举债造成投资错配,从而增强资本配置效率。以上分析结果表明,地方政府举债应更理性、适度、规范。     

Analysis of government policies,institutions, and inward foreign direct investment: Evidence from sub‐Saharan Africa

This article examines the effects of government policies and institutions on foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows in sub‐Saharan African context using both quantitative and qualitative approaches. On the quantitative approach, we analyzed the effects of institutions on FDI using two statistical techniques—canonical cointegration regression (CCR) and fully modified ordinary least square (FMOLS)—over the period of 1984–2012. We find that political instability, democratic accountability, and investment risk have significant impact on inward FDI in Nigeria. Using a trend analysis, our results provide evidence to suggest that liberal government investment policies have positive influence on FDI inflows. Our qualitative analysis over the 1962–2012 period supports the results of the quantitative analysis.     

The Determinants of the Location of Foreign Direct Investment by Japanese Small and Medium-sized Enterprises

Japanese manufacturing small and medium enterprises (SMEs) have actively undertaken Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in Asia since the mid-1980s. FDI contributes to economic growth of the FDI recipient countries, as it brings in not only financial resources for investment but also technologies and managerial know-how, which are important factors for promoting economic growth. Recognizing these benefits of receiving FDI, policy makers in developing countries have formulated various strategies to attract FDI. This paper examines the factors in the host countries that would attract FDI by Japanese SMEs. Our results show the importance of both supply-side and demand-side factors in the recipient countries for attracting FDI by Japanese SMEs. Supply-side factors include abundance of low-wage labor, availability of well-developed infrastructure, and good governance of the host government, while an important demand-side factor is the presence of sizable local market. In addition, Japanese SMEs regard industrial agglomeration, which has a element of both supply and demand factors, as an important factors making FDI decision. Supply-side factors are found to be important for attracting Japanese FDI in developing countries, while demand-factors play a role in attracting Japanese FDI in developed countries. A comparison of the results for SMEs to those for large firms reveals that SMEs are more sensitive to the conditions in the host countries in making their FDI decision. In particular, SMEs regard the availability of low-wage labor, well-developed infrastructure, and industrial agglomeration as important elements much more than large firms. High sensitivity of SMEs to local economic conditions in their decision on FDI location may be explained by their limited availability of financial and human resources and high dependence on overseas production in their business. In light of these findings, we conclude that countries interested in hosting FDI have to provide a very attractive business environment.     

地区产业结构差异对外商直接投资区位选择的影响

随着外商对华投资规模、技术含量的提高,FDI对于投资地的选择,越来越受到当地产业结构的影响。与此相适应的是人力资本和服务业发展水平的重要性日趋提高,并对FDI的流向产生直接的影响。本文通过使用我国1992～2001年沿海10省市的相关数据分析认为,一个地区产业集中度的高低显著影响外商投资的区位选择,跨国公司决定向一个地区投资后往往选择该地区具有比较优势、集中度高的行业作为投资方向,且只有当该地区的产业集聚优势与外资的比较优势相一致时,外资才会进入。     

外商在华直接投资的“漏损”分析

改革开放20余年来,中国已成为引资大国,随着引资数额的增大,撤资事件亦有增长的趋势。外商直接投资撤退将在技术进步、产业结构、就业、国际融资等方面对东道国,特别是发展中东道国造成各方面的影响。而造成外商直接投资漏损的原因涉及理论和现实多方面,应加以认真研究与分析,尽量将外商直接投资撤退所造成的影响减少到最低限度。     

制度约束、外商投资与产业结构升级调整——基于省际面板数据的实证研究

本文基于空间经济学,从制度约束的视角对FDI影响产业结构调整的机制进行了系统梳理,并应用1985-2004年省际面板数据,采用双向固定效应模型对FDI与产业结构调整的关系进行了实证检验。结果发现:FDI增加有助于提升第三产业在经济中的比重,降低第二产业比重,总体上有利于产业结构优化升级,并且FDI的产业结构调整效应呈边际递减规律(倒U型走势)。产生这种效应与FDI的资本供给、技术进步、收入漏出效应有关,也与中国金融偏向政策等制度约束有关。政府应继续积极合理有效地引进外资并加强产业引导,同时着力改善制度环境。     

OECD Export Credit Agencies: Supplementing Short-Term Export Credit Insurance during the 2008 Financial Crisis

ABSTRACT

The 2008 financial crisis impacted international trade in part due to decreases in trade finance and export credit insurance. This article shows that Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) member states used their public Export Credit Agencies (ECAs) to supplement the lack of private short-term export credit insurance as a means to increase trade. All OECD states, except Greece and Estonia, either increased the capacity of their ECAs to provide short-term export credit insurance, or they developed new products for this purpose. More generally, states that changed their short-term export credit insurance programs had major trading partners with defaults.     

Quantitative Evaluation of the Determinants of Export and FDI: Firm‐level Evidence from Japan

Using firm‐level data for Japan, this paper examines the determinants of the export and foreign direct investment (FDI) decision. We contribute to the literature by employing a mixed logit model, i.e. a multinomial logit model with random intercepts and random coefficients, to incorporate any unobserved firm heterogeneity and by paying special attention to the quantitative significance of the determinants. We find that while the impact of productivity on the export and FDI decision is positive and statistically significant, it is economically negligible. The effect of firm size, credit constraints and information spillovers from experienced firms is also small in magnitude. A quantitatively dominant determinant of the export and FDI decision is instead the prior status of firms in terms of internationalisation. In addition, the use of the mixed logit model enables us to find a substantial role of unobserved firm characteristics in internationalisation of the firm. These findings suggest that entry costs to foreign markets, which substantially vary in size across firms, play an important role in the export and FDI decision. In addition, given that the negligible effect of productivity and the dominant effect of prior status appear to be more prominent in Japan than in some other countries, this study helps highlight the uniqueness of Japanese firms.     

Foreign Direct Investment in Africa: The Role of Natural Resources,Market Size,Government Policy,Institutions and Political Instability

Data from several investor surveys suggest that macroeconomic instability, investment restrictions, corruption and political instability have a negative impact on foreign direct investment (FDI) to Africa. However, the relationship between FDI and these country characteristics has not been studied. This paper uses panel data for 22 countries over the period 1984–2000 to examine the impact of natural resources, market size, government policies, political instability and the quality of the host country's institutions on FDI. It also analyses the importance of natural resources and market size vis‐à‐vis government policy and the host country's institutions in directing FDI flows. The main result is that natural resources and large markets promote FDI. However, lower inflation, good infrastructure, an educated population, openness to FDI, less corruption, political stability and a reliable legal system have a similar effect. A benchmark specification shows that a decline in the corruption from the level of Nigeria to that of South Africa has the same positive effect on FDI as increasing the share of fuels and minerals in total exports by about 35 per cent. These results suggest that countries that are small or lack natural resources can attract FDI by improving their institutions and policy environment.     

后金融危机时期湖北外贸出口的战略选择

作为美国的重要贸易伙伴和世界贸易大国的中国不可避免地受到由美国次贷危机引起的国际金融危机的影响,而作为拉动湖北经济增长＂三驾马车＂之一的湖北外贸出口同样在国际金融危机影响下形势严峻,举步维艰。后金融危机时期湖北为了提高外贸出口的长期竞争力,一方面政府应该加大政策扶持,强化服务,营造良好的企业发展环境;另一方面企业应加快出口品牌建设,科技兴贸,提高国际市场竞争力。此外,行业商会也要努力协调,开拓新兴市场,寻求产品进入国际市场的突破口。     

Foreign Direct Investment in China: Reward or Remedy?

This paper tests the significance of FDI as a way to alleviate credit constraints. Incoming foreign investment provides additional sources of capital. Specifically in the Chinese case, enterprises may look for foreign investors, being constrained in their activity due to distortions in the state‐dominated system. First, the Chinese financial system allocates resources to the least efficient firms – state‐owned enterprises – while denying the same resources to Chinese private enterprises, forcing them to look for a foreign investor. Second, the inefficient system of state investment planning leads to mismanagement of public enterprises, increasing ‘insolvency‐induced FDI’. We propose to analyse determinants of FDI in Chinese provinces to test the above hypotheses. We control for traditional determinants of FDI such as market access, labour costs, productivity, infrastructure, reform advances and banking sector size in order to assess the impact of inter‐provincial heterogeneity in terms of the access that private enterprises have to credit and the distortive management in state‐owned firms.     

国际贸易对中外双向投资影响的实证分析

改革开放以来尤其是我国加入世贸以来,我国国际贸易额大幅上升,与此同时,流入我国的外商直接投资和我国的对外直接投资同时迅猛地增长。那么国际贸易和双向投资之间是否存在着某种必然的相关性呢?运用计量经济学的方法对我国国际贸易额与我国双向FDI的总量关系进行实证分析,得出结论,国际贸易对我国双向FDI起着促进作用,其中,对外商直接投资促进作用较大(在99%显著水平下,每产生一亿美元的进口就会流入0.303亿美元的FDI,每产生一亿美元的出口就会流入0.208亿美元的FDI),对对外直接投资影响较小(在99%显著水平下,每产生一亿美元的贸易仅对对外投资0.003 203亿美元)。并由此提出了一些建设性的意见。     

东道国引资政策与跨国企业行为研究

基于东道国引资政策对跨国企业行为的影响,研究建立一个由跨国企业与东道国企业构成的寡头垄断竞争模型,分析跨国企业的选择行为及东道国的最佳优惠政策,结论表明东道国最佳优惠政策与跨国企业直接投资的固定成本密切相关。因此,东道国制定引资政策时应以本国国民福利为首要目标,针对不同类型的FDI给予不同的优惠政策。     

Country factor differentials as determinants of FDI flow to China

Given the large size and rapid growth of foreign direct investment (FDI) in China, a systematic analysis of the connection between FDI and the characteristics of source countries provides clearer insights into the roles of home‐country factors in the vast but still fast‐growing foreign investment in China. Unlike the existing mainstream studies of FDI in China, this analysis focuses on the effects of country‐factor differentials (between investing countries and China) on the FDI flow to China. Based on data from 21 source countries over a period of 17 years, this paper examines the impacts of eight variables in three sets of country factors, namely market conditions, risk, and financial factors. The statistical results show that, while the market‐condition variables and the high values of source country currencies positively influenced the flow of FDI to China, the relatively high costs of capital borrowing and political and operational risks in China inhibited the flow of FDI. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

辽宁省服务外包企业在金融危机中加速发展的对策

受国际金融危机影响,2009年我国进出口贸易都有所下降,而服务贸易却不降反升,辽宁省服务外包产业更是获得＂井喷式＂发展,这与辽宁省良好的基础设施以及产业基础、政府与企业的共同努力是分不开的。在金融危机条件下,辽宁省服务外包企业应转危为机,充分发挥辽宁省的区位优势,积极开展服务外包招商引资,加速企业并购重组,实现规模化经营战略,在逆境中持续、快速、健康发展。     

现行预算会计系统的信息“赤字”及改进策略分析

政府会计信息的需求机制是一项客观的要求,影响到会计信息披露的范围和质量要求;而会计信息的供给机制则存在一定的主观性,并且受到技术和规范上的限制。我国现行的预算会计在信息供求层面上,呈现出明显的信息披露不足,存在着“信息赤字”问题。分析经济、政治、社会环境以及国际新公共管理运动的要求,改革预算会计体系,建立政府会计体系已经成为必然的趋势,这是减少信息赤字、有效地评价政府和进行决策的前提和基础。     

Does the Quality of Investment Protection Affect FDI Flows to Developing Countries? Evidence from Latin America

Studies on the impact of international investment agreements (IIAs), including bilateral investment treaties (BITs), on foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows have been inconclusive. This paper contributes to the debate about the effectiveness of IIAs using an original database that differentiates between investment agreements according to the quality of investor protection, and which covers a wide variety of trade and investment agreements signed and ratified in the Americas. We find evidence that in the least likely case of south–south FDI flows, high‐quality international investment treaties have a demonstrable effect on foreign direct investment inflows. Moreover, international investment agreements appear to be most effective in a context of deeper economic integration. That is, they work better when they provide higher quality protection to investors and when they are combined with other preferential economic integration agreements, such as trade agreements.