汇率波动加剧、资本流入反应与货币政策效应

本文先构建带有汇率波动的内生经济增长模型,理论分析人民币汇率波动加剧对资本流入的影响,进而基于TVP-VAR-SV模型,实证研究人民币汇率波动、货币政策与资本流入之间的互动关系。理论结果表明,人民币汇率波动加剧对资本流入的影响是不确定的,主要取决于厂商对进口资本的依赖程度,以及出口商品价格在一般价格水平中的相对权重。实证结果表明,人民币汇率波动对于利率和资本流入的影响乘数在整个样本期内均表现为负值,且保持相对稳定,而利率波动对于资本流入的影响乘数则表现为"先低-后高-再低"的趋势,表现出时变特征;对于不同提前期的汇率波动冲击,预期在利率和资本流入反应中,起到重要作用;而不同时点的汇率波动冲击,资本流入反应程度与汇率波动幅度之间呈正相关关系。     

International Capital and the Environment in Latin America

Summary

This century's end has been witnessing an increase in environmental concern. While initially a subject of developed countries, developing countries began to realize that the trade off between developing and conserving the environment has to be equated to give present and future generations a chance of success in their development efforts. Thus far, the approach taken by both developed and developing countries towards correcting environmental problems has been primarily dominated by command and control type of regulations, whose success is clearly a function of the regulator's enforcement capacity. Yet, there are signs that this approach is changing towards a more participatory mixed environmental policy model. This change has further stimulated the growing “environmental industry,” in which international capital plays a major role. This paper discusses these recent trends in the context of the conservation of the Latin America and the Caribbean environment.     

Skill Upgrading and the Real Exchange Rate

This paper examines the effect of changes in the real exchange rate on skill upgrading in the case of Chile. Using plant‐level data from the manufacturing sector, we find that a real depreciation increases the share of skilled workers in the total wage bill in exporters but not in non‐exporters. This result suggests that depreciations or, more generally, increases in export profitability, may induce exporters to adopt more skill‐intensive technologies. This finding gives support to recent models of trade that highlight the possible effect of the real exchange rate on skill upgrading and wage inequality. This paper also finds that real depreciations increase plants’ export intensity, suggesting that skill upgrading for firms that are already exporters is the channel through which real exchange depreciations affect wage inequality.     

巴拉萨-萨缪尔森效应与实际汇率偏离：一个经验研究

均衡实际汇率的测算对探究实际汇率偏离对经济增长的影响非常重要。“巴拉-萨缪尔森效应”(巴萨效应)通过采用相对生产率测算均衡实际汇率,本文将ICP数据支出项目进行可贸易品和不可贸易品的划分并构建内部实际汇率,通过“巴萨效应”测算出均衡内部实际汇率并探究内部实际汇率偏离对经济发展水平的影响。研究结果表明：“宾大效应”替代“巴萨效应”会放大对实际汇率的影响;经“宾大效应”调整的实际汇率偏离对经济发展水平不具有解释力。进一步研究表明,内部实际汇率升值能够促进发达国家的经济发展水平,贬值能够促进发展中国家的经济发展水平。     

Foreign Exchange Reserves and Import Demand: Evidence from Latin America

This paper investigates the impact of foreign reserves, domestic real income and relative import prices on import demand for seven Latin American countries. We differentiate empirically between the short‐run and long‐run impact of reserves, income and prices on imports. The paper has three main results. First, we show that there exists a unique long‐run relationship among real imports, real income, relative import prices and real foreign exchange reserves for all seven countries. Second, we find that increases in foreign exchange reserves exert a significant positive effect on import demand in both the long run and the short run in all countries. However, the economic impact of foreign exchange reserves is rather small. Finally, we find that the long‐ and short‐run impact of real domestic income on import demand is positive as well, while the effect of relative prices is negative.     

房地产抵押、汇率冲击与资本账户开放——一个开放经济条件下的DSGE分析框架

随着住房市场化改革与人民币汇改的推行,加之我国资本项目的逐步开放,房地产价格与汇率表现出更为复杂的内在联系。本文构建一个包含房地产抵押海外信贷约束的开放经济DSGE模型,证明房地产信贷抵押与汇率之间存在相互促进的加速循环关系;基于开放经济的动态视角,进一步刻画了不同汇率制度与不同开放程度下,房地产价格与汇率之间动态演变的内在机制;对外开放程度或汇率浮动范围变大,贬值冲击会带来更大幅度的资产价格与产出下降,甚至可能出现"房地产价格下跌—汇率下降"相互促进触发的明斯基时刻与金融危机。理解房地产价格与汇率之间的关系,对于开放经济下的金融稳定具有重要意义。因此,维持国内房地产市场健康发展、宏观审慎地推进资本项目开放、避免汇率大幅波动是开放经济下我国经济稳健运行的重要保障。     

Exchange rates and US direct investment into Latin America

Abstract

In this paper, we analyze separately the determinants of maritime transport and road transport costs for Spanish exports to Poland and Turkey (markets for which maritime and road transport are competing modes) and investigate the different effects of these costs on international trade. First, we investigate the extent to which maritime and road transport costs depend on different factors such as unit values, distances, transport conditions, service structures, and service quality. Second, we analyze the relative importance of road and maritime transport costs in comparison with distance measures as determinants of trade flows. The main results of this investigation indicate that real distance is not a good proxy for transportation costs and identify the central variables influencing road and maritime transportation costs: for both modes, transport conditions are strong determinants, whereas efficiency and service quality are more important for maritime transport costs, and geographical distance is more important for road transport. Road and maritime transport costs are central explanatory factors of exports and they seem to deter trade to a greater extent than road or maritime transit time when endogeneity is considered.     

全球平衡增长议题对人民币汇率与FDI流入关系的影响

本文以2010年1月至2014年7月间175个月度数据为样本,对人民币汇率与FDI流入关系进行分析,并在此基础上考察二者之间的关系在2010年1月前后所发生的变化,力求从一个侧面评估全球平衡增长议题及其倡导的再平衡调整实践给我国开放经济发展带来的影响,研究结果显示其强化了人民币汇率水平与FDI流入之间的负相关关系,与此同时人民币汇率波动幅度与FDI流入之间原有的负相关关系则在这一过程中发生了逆转。     

外国资本流入对国内储蓄的动态效应研究

本文基于国际资本流动视角分析了外国资本流对我国国内储蓄的影响。通过实证分析,认为在短期内外国资本流对国内储蓄具有“挤入效应”,而长期则具有“挤出效应”。同时,结合我国储蓄与外国资本流入关系的动态变化,认为我国在引入外资过程中,更应注重对外资的利用效率,从而实现跨期资本流入的最优调整。     

Real Exchange Rate and Economic Growth: New Empirical Evidence

The article empirically analyses the relationship between real exchange rate (RER) and growth rate of output. We first estimate the effect of the index of RER undervaluation on the rate of output growth in two samples of countries from 1978 to 2007. Our contribution is the use of a different dataset that increases the number of countries in the sample, as well as the number of available control variables. In doing so, the article adds to the literature by applying a method that allows for the control of income levels (quantile regressions). So, we present new findings on a non‐linear relationship the RER‐growth nexus. We conclude that maintaining a competitive level of RER has positive effects on growth rate.     

美联储加息、人民币汇率与价格波动

随着中国与其它国家的互动关系逐步加强,国内经济更易受外国货币政策冲击的影响。本文通过构建两国经济DSGE模型,采用参数校准法选取模型参数,利用经济变量波动特征和脉冲响应函数,分析了美国加息对人民币汇率和相关价格的影响。研究结果表明:美国加息会导致中国通货膨胀率下降和股票价格下跌,人民币汇率贬值,但汇率贬值不一定引起出口增加;美国加息冲击发生后,中国股票价格的相对波动性最大,其次是人民币汇率,随后是通货膨胀率,利率的相对波动性最小。最后提出完善宏观调控政策和加强金融宏观审慎管理制度建设等建议。     

Real exchange rates,dollarization and industrial employment in Latin America

We use a panel dataset on industrial employment and trade for 9 Latin American countries for which liability dollarization data at the industrial level is available. We test whether real exchange rate fluctuations have a significant impact on employment, and analyse whether the impact varies with the degree of trade openness and liability dollarization. Econometric evidence supports the view that real exchange rate depreciations can impact employment growth positively, but this effect is reversed as liability dollarization increases. In industries with high liability dollarization, the overall impact of a real exchange rate depreciation can be negative.     

Real Exchange Rate Changes and the Trade Balance: The Evidence from Pakistan

This study uses quarterly data from July 1980 to June 2006 to explore the relationship between changes in real exchange rate and the trade balance of Pakistan. Applying the Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach to cointegration, we examine the existence of a possible long-run relationship. We find the following: (1) a long-run relationship between the series exists, and (2) the coefficient of elasticity is negative and statistically significant, which does not support for the J-relation.

Given this, the policymakers should take a conservative approach in using currency devaluation to cure the fundamental disequilibrium in the balance of payments. It is likely that such policy may not produce the desired outcome—i.e., the trade balance may not improve.     

“H-M-K假说”的检验——基于中国贸易结构数据的实证研究

“H-M-K假说”或克鲁格曼“45度规则”指出,对于经济处于快速增长的国家而言,如果该国与世界其它国家的经济增长率之比等于该国出口需求收入弹性与进口需求收入弹性之比,该国的实际汇率往往不会出现持续的贬值或升值趋势。本文首先拓展了该理论,得出一个与“45度规则”等价但更简洁的理论结论,然后对中国的情况进行了实证检验,检验结果表明:中国不符合“H-M-K假说”之结论。通过对中国进出口商品结构以及日本和中国双边贸易结构的分析,我们认为造成中国不符合“45度规则”的主要原因在于:我国出口商品结构中,初级产品、低附加值产品所占比重过大,高技术含量、高附加值产品占比过小,而进口商品结构则刚好相反。     

劳动力技术禀赋与人民币实际汇率决定研究

随着"刘易斯拐点"的临近和人口红利的逐渐消失,劳动力质量而非数量成为长期经济增长的驱动力,凸显了劳动力技术禀赋对经济运行和人民币实际汇率决定的重要性。本文通过引入非齐序性消费效用函数,从理论上分析了劳动力技术结构通过要素禀赋机制、巴萨效应机制和收入机制等三条渠道影响实际汇率,要素禀赋机制的作用方向为正,但巴萨效应机制和收入机制的作用方向不确定。鉴于理论分析结论的不确定,文章进而利用我国工业行业年度面板数据,实证检验了劳动力技术结构对人民币实际有效汇率的影响效果,研究表明,劳动力技术结构对人民币实际有效汇率有正向显著的影响,稳健性检验证明了结论的一致性。     

人民币对美元实际汇率与中美贸易净出口关系的实证研究

中美双方的统计结果均表明,中美双边的贸易顺差是巨大的。按照中方提供的数据,格兰杰因果检验结果是人民币对美元实际汇率的变化对中美贸易净出口的变化没有统计上的影响;而按照美方提供的数据,人民币对美元实际汇率的变化对中美贸易净出口的变化有统计上的影响。然而,由于美方的数据夸大了中美之间实际上的净出口,因此美国的结论是不成立的。要解决中美之间的贸易冲突,在人民币汇率上做文章是行不通的,只有找出引起中美贸易净出口扩大的真正原因,才能有效解决中美巨额贸易顺差的问题。     

出生率、政府健康支出与实际汇率

本文首先考察了典型代理人效用最优化下的消费和健康人力资本等最优一阶条件,得到实际汇率和出生率均衡方程;同时结合生产者最优化进一步拓展该模型,得到健康支出、出生率等对实际汇率的影响.理论分析表明:政府健康支出、人口出生率、非贸易品与贸易品劳动生产率之比和实际汇率存在长期的均衡关系,政府健康支出、出生率对实际汇率都有一定的影响.面板数据动态最小二乘法的实证结果显示:政府健康支出和实际汇率是同向变化,两者之间都是正相关;人口出生率和实际汇率变化则依赖于具体的条件.     

Exchange market pressure,commodity prices,and contagion in Latin America

Over the past two decades, Latin American currencies have faced not only pressure to devalue but also periods of uncomfortable appreciation. Domestic macroeconomic factors, as well as global events and contagion, might bear part of the responsibility. This study constructs a monthly index of exchange market pressure (EMP) for four Latin American countries before using vector autoregressive methods to test the influence of commodity prices, macroeconomic variables, and external factors on each country's index. While inflation is an important determinant of EMP, we conclude that Chile and Peru are more likely than Mexico and Brazil to face pressure when commodity prices fall. This supports the idea that these two countries have “commodity currencies” and that their exchange markets are most vulnerable to international contagion.     

Latin America: Taking the Helm

The eyes of the world are locked on Europe these days.This is understandable.After all,the storm in the euro area casts a long shadow over the entire global economy.But the IMF has 187 members,and my job is to serve each and every one of them as effectively as possible.Like so many in the region,Latin America countries have done remarkably well over the past few years.They have harvested the fruits of strong fundamentals,sound policy frameworks,and prudent macroeconomic policies and are now enjoying sustained growth with reduced vul-nerabilities,an enviable sweet spot.