中国社会保险缴费率的降低空间与方案模拟——以城镇企业职工基本养老保险为例

以城镇企业职工基本养老保险为例,在确保基金2016～2090年正常运转的前提下,通过建立精算模型分析缴费率是否具备降低空间,研究发现:如果退休年龄自2022年每年延迟3个月直至65岁,且"全面二孩"生育意愿达到61%及以上,缴费率可从28%降至25.51%～27.94%;进一步,如果允许养老保险基金入市,且投资收益率达到全国社保基金理事会公布的8.82%,无论"全面二孩"生育意愿为多少,缴费率可降至24.43%～26.41%;再进一步,如果政府继续减持国有股充实全国社保基金,缴费率可降至23.63%～25.54%.综上所述,为减轻用人单位和职工的缴费负担,除采取延迟退休和鼓励生育等措施外,政府还可尽快完善养老金入市、减持国有股充实社保基金.     

Das Rentenpaket 2014 — eine ökonomische Beurteilung

The 2014 pension reform has three main components. First disability pensions have been increased by about two earnings points, an average monthly gain of 40 euros. In addition low wages in the four years preceding disability-related retirement will now be disregarded. However, since these new rules only apply to retirement after July 2014 they fail to fight poverty among current disability-related retirees. Second an additional credit for all births before 1992 (“mothers’ pension”) is extremely costly and unnecessary. Poverty prevention is weak due to a strict income test in the welfare system for the elderly. Third early retirement at age 63 without actuarial adjustment has been reintroduced This is a costly measure with negative effects on both equality and efficiency. The additional child credit and early retirement provisions reduce the financial and social sustainability of the German public pension system.     

养老金计划改革的宏观经济影响：中国与发达国家的比较研究

介绍了在人口老化背景下,以经合组织成员为首的发达国家的不同养老金改革方案的宏观经济影响,研究了发达国家公共养老金改革方案(如延迟退休年龄改革方案)在中国的适用性问题、公共养老金市场化改革方案的优势与安全性问题,提出了适合中国的养老金改革政策建议.     

Rentenreformen — die internationale Perspektive

This article examines recent pension reforms in OECD countries. All countries are facing the challenge of designing both financially and socially sustainable pension policies in a context of weak economic growth, low financial returns and ageing populations. In some cases, countries have been accelerating the pace of pension reform, bringing forward changes in the rules and parameters of their pension systems. Common features include, for example, increases in retirement ages, closure of early retirement avenues, changes in benefit indexation, stronger links in the system to increasing life expectancy and greater incentives for working longer. At the same time, many countries have improved the adequacy of retirement income provision, in particular by targeting benefits more towards the most vulnerable elderly.     

The effects of aging on notional defined contribution pension systems: A theoretical investigation

This paper proposes a theoretical framework for analyzing the properties of pay‐as‐you‐go notional defined contributions (NDCs) systems within the context of aging. Different from the defined‐benefit scheme, where aging harms the financial sustainability of the social security system, the NDC determines pension benefits while taking into account life expectancy and demographic trends, turning the issue of financial sustainability into one of pension adequacy. This paper explores the balance sheet effects when life expectancy, retirement thresholds and entry age in the labor market vary by cohorts. The study suggests some solutions for practical issues concerning aging in NDC systems, such as (a) the bias related to the forecasts of survival rates, (b) the indexation of pension benefits and (c) the setup of tenure and age requirements for retirement.     

Änderungen an der Grundsicherung im Alter statt unsystematischer Rentenkonzepte

There is discussion in Germany about the future threat of widespread poverty among the elderly. Some argue that the social pension system will not be able to provide sufficiently for low-wage workers. At the same time, applying for welfare payments is seen as unfair in light of the lifetime achievements of the elderly. There are two basic approaches to deal with these concerns: adjusting the rules for welfare payments or changing the social pension system. Present proposals prove to be inadequate. Proposals to reform the social pension system in particular are inconsistent with basic principles. I present a proposal that will provide the right incentive while respecting the fundamental structure of the system. All other income arising from retirement provisions should be only partially credited against the welfare claim.     

Raising the Mandatory Retirement Age and its Effect on Long‐run Income and Pay‐as‐you‐go (PAYG) Pensions

In this paper we study the effects of raising the mandatory retirement age in the neoclassical growth model context. It is shown that postponement of the retirement age may be harmful for long‐run income and even for pensions. Our findings show that the retirement age might be reduced, thereby obtaining a higher income and even higher pension benefits. This suggests that the idea that a higher mandatory age of retirement is always beneficial in the long run for income and pension payments is theoretically controversial.     

Rentenreform — mit welchem Fokus?

The demographic imbalance is aggravating, and by 2060 the old-age dependency ratio will double to approximately 70%. This development has consequences for the state pension system: growing contribution rates to social security coupled with lower pension levels, but at the same time a higher retirement age. The German pension scheme is mandatory for all wage and salary earners, but since 2001, no reasonable indicator for measuring the pension level exists any more. As a consequence of this, old-age pension has lost its traditional function as a replacement for earnings. The recent pension reforms have dropped the pension level sharply. Further reductions have been announced with the consequence of increasing old age poverty. Against this background it is proposed to raise the pension level so that the pensioners can maintain their standard of living. But any pension reform involves issues of distribution between and often also within generations, which cannot be addressed without explicit equity criteria. Some authors consider the past reforms as a mistake, others suggest adjustments.     

Is an Increase in the Minimum Retirement Age Always Desirable? The Case of Notional Defined Contribution Systems

Several countries have recently introduced reforms that aim to increase the neutrality of their pension system by introducing an incentives‐disincentives mechanism or by replacing their traditional defined‐benefit system with a Notional Defined Contribution method. This paper evaluates the financial effects of an increase in the minimum retirement age in countries where a Notional Defined Contribution system exists. We show that such a reform produces a positive effect on the financial situation of the pension system (by generating surpluses or by reducing deficits) in the short and in the medium run, but it becomes completely ineffective in the long run. This result implies that in countries where the pension system is sufficiently neutral such a reform is not appropriate to solve the problem of population ageing which is a long‐run problem.     

城镇企业职工养老金性别差异的定量探讨

在我国现行城镇企业职工养老保险制度下 ,男女职工的养老金表现出明显差异。在数量差异上 ,女性职工的养老金普遍低于男性 ,仅占其 74 81% ,且与二者在职时的工资差距相比 ,养老金差距相对扩大。这种养老金差距的绝大部分可由男女职工的就业 (缴费 )年限差异来解释。另外 ,在分布差异上 ,女性职工内部的养老金数量差距一般要大于男性     

对我国养老保险制度财务可持续性的分析

运用精算估计方法 ,分别对我国现行的城镇职工养老保险方案和 2 0 0 1年辽宁省试点方案的未来财务状况进行了预测分析 ,对制度的未来财务可持续性进行了研究 ,最后提出一些改革建议。     

预期寿命延长、延迟退休与经济增长

本文通过构建一个包含财政支出和内生生育率的世代交叠模型,考察预期寿命延长和延迟退休对经济增长的影响,并设定目标探讨预期寿命延长过程中如何调整退休年龄。研究发现,预期寿命延长使均衡状态的生育率下降、财政养老保险支出占比上升、劳均产出和总产出减少,延迟退休使均衡状态的生育率上升、财政养老保险支出占比下降、劳均产出和总产出增加,二者的影响效应相反,表明退休年龄延迟可以抵消预期寿命延长产生的负面影响。在财政养老负担不增、劳均产出不减、总产出不减三种目标下,退休年龄延迟岁数临界值均随预期寿命的延长而增加,但三种目标下的经济效应差别较大,且都会降低生育率。本文的政策启示是:预期寿命延长背景下,延迟退休是一个合理且必需的政策选项;建立与预期寿命相联动的退休年龄调整机制,同时拓宽养老保险制度筹资渠道和完善生育配套政策,有助于遏制生育率下降、减轻财政养老负担和促进经济增长。     

Engagement with Retirement Savings: It Is a Matter of Trust

People who engage with their retirement savings are more likely to opt out of unsuitable defaults. We use cluster analysis of matched survey and administrative data to identify groups of pension plan members that are alike in their attitudes toward retirement saving. We find that engaged and disengaged members segregate into groups based on their interest and trust. Group membership in turn helps predict plan engagement, as proxied by nondefault choices. Specifically, engagement is stronger among interested groups. Trust, however, has a more complex relationship with engagement, particularly as it interacts with interest. While members with low interest and high trust are less likely to engage (e.g., by not checking plan performance), less trusting members engage more (e.g., by actively choosing asset allocations). As interest and trust successfully determine group membership, and ultimately engagement, pension plan providers should address members' diverse needs and circumstances with personalized approaches.     

Auswirkungen des demografischen Wandels auf die Finanzierung der Erwerbsminderungsrente

The latest pension reform plan proposed by the German government aims to raise benefits for people with reduced earning capacities due to invalidity. While this reform is an improvement for future pensioners, it does not tackle the major financial problem of the current system. It is argued that demographic change would not cause financial problems in a pay-as-you-go invalidity insurance scheme comparable to the problems of the current pension insurance scheme. Therefore, separating the risk of longevity and the risk of invalidity would allow a higher invalidity pension level.     

Pension Freedom Day in the United Kingdom: Early evaluation of consumer response

Understanding decumulation decisions in retirement is an important component of public policy that influences pension regulations in aging societies. This research examined a recent, substantial change to pension regulation in the United Kingdom: the newly established flexibility to obtain a lump‐sum payout from personal or occupational pension savings. Conducting an online survey of individual’s eligible to take advantage of the Pension Freedom regulation, we find that almost half of study participants plan to obtain a lump‐sum payout, on average £33,741, intending it for an average of three different investments or purchases. The decision to obtain a lump‐sum withdrawal was related to better knowledge of the new regulation. It was also more likely among older respondents and those not worried about a decline in standard of living during retirement. Dispositional measures did not affect the lump‐sum decision. Close to one‐third of study participants still planned to invest retirement savings into an annuity, especially those who retire at a later age, have concerns about care costs and worry about decline in standard of living in retirement. Comments about the changes to pension regulation were slightly more positive than negative. From our analysis of the effect of the Pension Freedom regulation on savings decumulation decisions, we conclude that the new Pension Freedom regulations do meet consumer demands, and demonstrate that pension knowledge and retirement expectations, in particular, influence consumer evaluations. We further conclude that annuity investments continue to play a role for older adults in the United Kingdom, especially for those concerned about meeting financial needs during retirement.     

城镇灵活就业人员养老保险参保率研究——以辽宁省为例

在城镇就业压力增大的背景下,灵活就业已成为正规就业的有效补充,在促进社会经济发展及城镇就业方面发挥了重要作用。伴随城镇灵活就业规模的不断扩大,城镇基本养老保险覆盖面亟待扩大,尤其是提高灵活就业人员的养老保险参保率。基于辽宁省的问卷调查得出的结论是：城镇灵活就业人员参保率较低,主要是由于缴费率偏高与灵活就业人员收入水平不足的矛盾造成的。鉴于此,应改革养老保险参保缴费办法。提高灵活就业人员的收入水平和进行专门的劳动保护等,以利于提高灵活就业人员参保率。     

中国基础养老金的支付能力研究

基于目前偏重《国发[2005]38号》基础养老金的激励效应分析而很少研究财务可持续性问题,本文运用精算理论,构建了衡量财务可持续程度的支付能力精算模型。结果表明,新政策实施后,养老金待遇提高了,但支付能力的下降幅度超过了25%,并出现支付能力不足。提高投资收益率、逐步延长退休年龄以及合理调整养老金替代率和增长率,是提高支付能力的重要办法。     

Spotlight on pensions

Pensions represent a significant financial burden for many companies and a critical source of retirement income for employees. Accordingly, it is important that corporate financial statements transparently present information about the financial health and consequences of pension plans. Numerous criticisms have been levied at financial reporting for pensions, leading to a recent project to revise pension accounting. This article discusses implications of changes to pensions accounting for financial statement users and corporate managers. In general, research suggests that likely changes in pension accounting could increase financial statement users' perceptions of companies' pension burden and risk. In turn, these perceptions could affect corporate managers' decisions with respect to pension commitments and investments.     

Rentenpaket: die Bundesregierung auf Irrwegen

In the summer of 2014 Germany will witness the most substantial expansion of pension expenditures since the 1950s. Yet, while this reform package was motivated mainly by the dismal prospect of rising old age poverty rates, it does little to alleviate this problem. On the contrary, its two central elements, an expansion of the pension claims of mothers whose children were born before 1992, and access to early retirement at age 63 for workers with a long insurance history, tend to benefit rather privileged groups of the insured. These measures endanger the sustainability of the German pension system and will necessitate future generations to work even longer than would have been the case otherwise.     

Ageing in Europe

For many people all over Europe, there is an understanding and an expectation that in old age they will be taken care of by the state. High social security contributions throughout the three or four decades of a working life are rationalised by the prospect of a straightforward transition out of the labour force when the time comes. While this was a reasonable expectation in decades past, a number of factors have combined to cause people all across the continent to feel very anxious about what awaits them once it is time to exit the labour force into retirement. The well-documented demographic transition of many rich European countries is a big factor, as greying populations start to weigh on the sparser younger generations, leading to increasing dependency ratios that would cause any social security system to buckle. The Great Recession has not helped matters, and the austerity measures still crippling many vulnerable European nations will not make anyone in these countries feel optimistic about their post-working lives. The following papers look at different threads of the new reality of ageing in Europe, from pension reform and prolonging the working life to more qualitative aspects such as an analysis of the quality of life of the elderly across Europe. They serve to inform and advise on an important issue that will affect everyone in Europe at some point in their lives.