China-ASEAN Free Trade Area:Ready?Go!

At the beginning of 2010,the overall start of China-ASEAN Free Trade Area(CAFTA)came as a milestone in the annals of China-ASEAN relations,and it may well serve as a model for regional cooperation not only in Asia,but also other parts of the world.     

China and Chile Signing Free Trade Agreement

Mr. Bo Xilai, Minister of Commerce of China, and Mr.Walker, Foreign Minister of Chile, signed the China-Chile FTA on behalf of their respective government on November 18, 2005. Chinese President Hu Jintao and Chile President Lagos attended the signing ceremony, according to a press release on the website of Network Center of MOFCOM.     

Trade Liberalisation and Poverty: What are the Links?

This paper asks whether a developing country's own trade liberalisation could translate into increased poverty, and what information would be required to identify whether it will do so. It plots the channels through which such effects might operate, identifying the static effects via four broad groups of institutions – households, distribution channels, factor markets and government – and the dynamic issues of volatility, long–term economic growth, and short–term adjustment stresses. An increase in the price of something a household sells (labour, good, service) increases its welfare. Thus, the paper first explores the likely effects of trade liberalisation on the prices of goods and services, taking into account the distribution sector. Also critical is whether trade reform creates or destroys markets. Trade reform is also likely to affects factor prices – of which the wages of the unskilled is the most important for poverty purposes. If reform boosts the demand for labour–intensive products, it boosts the demand for labour and wages and/or employment will increase. However, not all developing countries are relatively abundant in unskilled labour and trade can boost demand for semi–skilled rather than unskilled, labour. Hence poverty alleviation is not guaranteed. Trade reform can affect tariff revenue, but much less frequently and adversely than is popularly imagined. Even if it does, it is a political decision, not a law of nature, that the poor should suffer the resulting new taxes or cuts in government expenditure. Opening up the economy can reduce risk and variability because world markets are usually more stable than domestic ones. But sometimes it will increase them because stabilisation schemes are undermined or because residents switch to riskier activities. The non–poor can generally tide themselves over adjustment shocks from a liberalisation, so public policy should focus on whether the initially poor and near temporary, setbacks. The key to sustained poverty alleviation is economic growth. There is little reason to fear that growth will not boost the incomes of the poor. Similarly, while the argument that openness stimulates long–run growth has still not been completely proven, there is every presumption that it will.     

Who Supports Free Trade in Latin America?

This paper examines individual trade policy preferences across 17 countries in Latin America. The focus is on whether skilled or unskilled workers are more likely to support liberalised trade and on whether country characteristics, such as factor endowments, alter the preferences of skilled and unskilled workers. Based on the standard Heckscher‐Ohlin model and the Stolper‐Samuelson theorem, wage inequality in developing countries will decrease under free trade and unskilled workers will benefit. We find that on average skilled workers are more likely than unskilled workers to support free trade in Latin American countries. Separate country regressions reveal that this pattern is only statistically significant in 8 out of 17 Latin American countries. However, there are no countries in our sample in which unskilled workers are statistically more likely to support free trade than skilled workers, not even in the lowest skill‐endowed country in the sample. We also find that people from Latin American countries with higher GDP, faster growth, more cropland and a longer period of time since reform were more likely on average to support free trade.     

Measuring Effects of Trade Policy Distortions: How Far Have We Come?

After a brief review of the literature to the early 1970s, this paper assesses the contributions by economists during the past three decades to measuring the distortionary effects of trade policies. It does not pretend to be a comprehensive survey, but draws on selections from the literature that give a sense of the distance the profession has travelled from a trade policy practitioner's viewpoint since Corden's first paper on the subject in 1957. Phenomenal though that progress has been, there is ample room for further improvement in computing the economic (and other) effects of trade‐related policies and their reform. The paper concludes with suggestions of where the priorities should be in global modelling of trade policy reform, as the world moves into the next round of multilateral trade negotiations.     

How Desirable is the South Asian Free Trade Area? A Quantitative Economic Assessment

The proliferation of preferential trading agreements (PTAs) in different regions of the world has been a significant development over the last two decades. South Asian countries have been slowly moving towards a South Asia Free Trade Area (SAFTA) in recent years. The desirability of SAFTA has been questioned by some observers recently. Will SAFTA create gains for its members or not? Is it better for South Asian countries to promote non‐discriminatory trade liberalisation rather than SAFTA? The main objective of this paper is to address the above questions, especially the desirability of SAFTA, using a global computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. From the existing empirical and theoretical studies, we have identified three viewpoints on the desirability (or viability) of SAFTA: pessimistic, optimistic, and moderate. The results from two policy scenarios (unilateral liberalisation and SAFTA) confirm the pessimistic view by showing that unilateral liberalisation would benefit South Asian countries much more than preferential liberalisation (SAFTA). In fact, under preferential liberalisation, small countries in the region would gain little or even lose. The present political climate in South Asia also seems to support the pessimistic view.     

Does the WTO Increase Trade and Cause Convergence?

We study whether proximity to the nearest tax haven affects FDI and the number of American affiliates in a tax haven. Our results show that distance to the nearest tax haven is positively related to FDI inflows and the number of American affiliates in tax havens. These findings suggest that there is harmful competition between tax havens. We also find evidence of positive spillovers: the number of American affiliates in a tax haven is positively related to the number of affiliates in its closest neighboring tax haven. This suggests the presence of agglomeration benefits given there is an affiliate in a nearby tax haven.     

Wage Inequality in the United Kingdom: Trade and/or Technology?

I employ two alternative intra‐industry trade Applied General Equilibrium (AGE) models to explain some stylised facts of the British economy. The model with skill‐biased technical change (i.e. exogenous skill‐biased technical change à la Solow) can explain the rise in wage inequality between skilled and unskilled workers, the decline in manufacturing and the expansion of modern services. However, the model where technical change is trade‐induced (i.e. endogenous sector‐biased technical change à la Romer) performs better, because it can also explain the exponential rise of imported intermediate capital goods and developments in the wage rate of unskilled workers.     

Has Reality Television Come of Age as a Promotional Platform? Modeling the Endorsement Effectiveness of Celebreality and Reality Stars

Reality television programming (RTVP) was once simply an innovative entertainment phenomenon. But RTVP also has recently evolved into a mainstream promotional platform. Two new forms of celebrities arose during this progression: “reality” and “celebreality” stars. This study, which is grounded in connectedness theory, addresses an unresolved issue related to the use of celebrity endorsers, that is, how endorsers’ status as reality or celebreality stars influences viewers’ perceptions of, beliefs about, and purchase intentions toward products they endorse. These relationships were examined through SEM, as were the effects of viewers’ connectedness to RTVP stars and their perceptions regarding whether RTVPs are authentic. Four primary findings emerged. The observation that reality impacted viewer connectedness and that connectedness and authenticity impacted viewers’ purchase intentions (endorsement effectiveness) revealed various practical and theoretical contributions, as did the observation that endorsers’ celebreality or reality star status moderated each of these relationships.     

Trade Credits and Bank Credits in International Trade: Substitutes or Complements?

Trade credits are an important financing tool for internationally active firms. This is surprising, as trade credits are generally more expensive than bank credits and thus a costly substitute for bank financing. In this paper, we investigate the relation between trade credits and bank credits for exporting firms. We develop a theoretical model and show that trade credits convey a quality signal which reduces the risk of the transaction and may thus facilitate obtaining additional bank credits. Hence, exporters who are not able to obtain bank credits in the first place use trade credits and bank credits complementarily. Using panel data on large German manufacturing firms, we provide supportive evidence for our theoretical predictions. In general, trade credits and bank credits are substitutes. For financially constrained exporters, the overall substitution effect is attenuated which is consistent with a positive signalling effect.     

A Circle of Influence: Are All the Stakeholders Included?

Traditionally, certified public accountants (CPAs) have served a unique role in the world of commerce and the profession of accounting. They perform an attest function and thereby serve as the chief providers of relevant, high quality accounting information to the decision making public. CPAs are licensed practitioners, who as expert independent accountants express opinions about an entity'sfinancial statements. Their license provides them with the exclusive right to perform this attest function. This monoploy relies on the concept of independence that is the normative standard of accountancy. It is this perceived independence of auditors which provides credibility, reliability and trust in the financial accounting information upon which stakeholders depend to make informed decisions. Now, however, we see the environment in which CPAs operate undergoing rapid change. Both the globalization of business operations and technological advances have radically changed how and where accountants work and the speed at which things happen. The very nature of accounting information services is evolving; moving from a concentration on audits to an increasing reliance on consulting and assurance services. New ethical issues have been raised by this confluence of changes in the accounting environment. Noteworthy is that the application of the principle of independence by CPAs has been called into question by no other than the SEC. Are those stakeholders who depend upon the independence of CPAs at risk? The influence of insiders has significantly increased as accounting firms perform multiple tasks for the same clients. This paper discusses the different groups who can potentially impair the independence of auditors and the steps that are being taken to enhance the "independence" of the auditors.     

Free Trade Areas in East Asia: Discriminatory or Non‐discriminatory?

The debates on regional trade arrangements in East Asia focus on whether the RTAs can be net trade creating or diverting, and whether they impede multilateral trade liberalisation or not. This paper attempts to answer these questions by quantitatively estimating the economic impact of possible East Asian free trade areas based on a bilateral gravity model, and evaluating the main characteristics of the proposed FTAs. We find that the trade creation effect expected from the proposed East Asian FTAs such as a China‐Japan‐Korea or an ASEAN plus three (China, Japan, Korea) FTA will be significant enough to overwhelm the trade diversion effect. We also judge that East Asian FTAs will likely be a building block for a global free trade.