Economic determinants of the correlation structure across international equity markets

This study investigates whether, how, and why the matrix of correlations across international equity markets changes over time. A theoretical model is proposed to specify potential economic determinants of this correlation structure. The empirical validity of this economic model is investigated by employing daily returns for different national stock indexes, from 1972 through 1993, to construct a quarterly time series of the correlation matrix. This quarterly time series is used to investigate the stability of the correlation matrix over time, and to estimate the economic model. The model is then applied to generate out-of-sample forecasts of the correlation structure.Keywords: International market integrationJEL classification: F36, G15.     

Inflation,currency exchange rates,and the international securities markets

A time-state-preference model of an efficient and complete international financial market is employed to investigate the conditions under which the international Fisher Effect will hold, and the forward currency exchange rate will be an unbiased estimate of the future spot rate. The presence of stochastic inflation within countries in the fiat-currency prices of real goods will destroy both relationships, even in the absence of any institutional imperfections or trading barriers. Similarly, expected inflation rate differentials across countries will not coincide with spot-versus-forward currency exchange rate differentials.     

The influence of competition on international sourcing strategies in the service sector

Rising importance of service industries and international trade in services led to increased competition in the service sector. The aim of this study is to analyze the international sourcing behavior of service firms as a strategic means to contend with competition. Our theoretical predictions suggest that there is a U-shaped relationship between a service firm’s domestic competitive position and its pursuit of international sourcing: the relationship is first negative and at later stages positive. The international sourcing behavior of domestic competitors and inward investments of foreign rivals are expected to positively affect a service firm’s international sourcing magnitude. A large-scale empirical analysis using a panel of 579 German service firms supports our hypotheses.     

A comparison of produce prices in Costa Rica: farmers' markets,produce markets and supermarkets

Following a review of the history and organization of farmers' markets in Costa Rica, a comparison was made of prices offered to consumers at farmers' markets, produce markets and supermarkets in Costa Rica. Findings reveal there are substantial price savings to Costa Rican consumers that shop at local farmers' markets for fruit and vegetables compared to produce markets and supermarkets.     

Countertrade in international and domestic markets

The motivation to countertrade (CT) can be attributed to many factors including circumventing credit and foreign exchange problems, surmounting barriers to otherwise closed markets, hiding price cuts, or simply the need by exporters to remain competitive. However, CT arrangements essentially constitute packages of buying, selling, and financing contracts. Hence, to explain CT requires explanation of why package deals are preferred to a set of component contracts. Examination of domestic CT with “international ramifications” stripped out suggests the inherent rationales are wishes to hide price cuts and to overcome cash shortages, motivations that are consistent with data collected from U.K. and Canadian firms, which also stress problems of contracting complexity and of finding uses for the countertraded goods.     

Exchange rates and prices: The historical evidence

The paper briefly surveys the historical evolution of the purchasing power parity theory (PPP) as it was developed, beginning with Gerard de Malynes in 1601. It draws attention, indeed, for the first time, to Xenophon Zolotas' original contribution to the PPP and analyzes Zolotas' two qualitative factors which, in addition to Cassel's three quantitative factors, better explain the determination of the price of foreign currency. Finally, the paper concludes that changes in the magnitude and the degree of intensity of Zolotas' qualitative factors account for a good part of this explanation.     

The responses of U.S. multinational corporations to increased competition for international markets

Abstract

Extending the original Taylor rule and applying the VAR model, the author finds that the federal funds rate (FFR) responds positively to a shock to the output gap, the inflation gap, the long-term interest rate, or the lagged FFR, and it reacts negatively to a shock to the unemployment rate gap or the exchange rate. The response of FFR to stock prices is insignificant at the 5% level. The long-term rate can explain up to 41.3% or 46.1% of the variation in FFR, depending on the model considered. The exchange rate can explain up to 8.5% or 12.3% of the variance, depending on the model considered. The output gap can explain up to 26.6% of FFR variance. The unemployment rate gap can explain up to 26.8% of the variation in FFR. Because FFR responds to a shock to the output gap and the unemployment rate gap in a similar manner, both may be considered in conducting monetary policy. The more explanatory power of the long-term interest rate than the inflation gap may suggest that both need to be taken into consideration in the Taylor rule.     

Asymmetric information in commodity futures markets: Theory and empirical evidence

This article examines the theoretical and empirical implications of asymmetric information in commodity futures markets. In particular, it formulates and tests a theoretical model that recognizes two distinct categories of traders: hedgers, who participate in both spot and futures markets, and speculators, who participate only in the futures market. Speculators are assumed to possess differential information about the realized values of selected random variables. Multiperiod futures market equilibria are derived under competitive conditions, and the ability of futures markets to forecast changes in equilibrium spot market prices are examined. The key variable is shown to be the randomness and informational asymmetry in the aggregate supply by participating hedgers in the spot market, whose absence turns out to be the major determinant of the revelation of informational asymmetry. Moreover, under the assumption of independence of error forecasts for prices and spot market supplies, it is shown that futures market equilibrium ends up with linear expressions for prices and futures contract volumes. These linear expressions are then used to develop empirically testable models. The main empirical implications in these models revolve around the role of the basis as a predictor of future spot price changes. The paper provides an empirical investigation of these implications, using three commodities traded on the Winnipeg Commodity Exchange (WCE). © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 18:803–825, 1998     

Bribery in international markets: Diagnosis,clarification and remedy

This essay ranges widely, using selected ideas from microeconomics, ethics, and elementary game theory in an effort to gain some understanding of the controversial issue of bribery in international markets. Its goal is partial charification of the issue and increased awareness of alternative remedy strategies. Harold L. Johnson is Professor of Economics at the Emory University. Previously he worked at the Georgia State University. His most important publications are Disclosure of Corporate Social Performance, Praeger Publishers, New York, 1979 and Business in Contemporary Society: Framework and Issues, Wadsworth, New York, 1971. He wrote several articles which appeared in Harvard Business Review, Southern Economic Journal, Journal of Business, Behavioral Science and other journals.     

Early international entrepreneurship in China: Extent and determinants

We use data on 3,948 Chinese firms obtained from the World Bank’s Investment Climate Private Enterprise Survey to investigate early international entrepreneurship (international new ventures) in China. The extent of early international entrepreneurship in China is significant: 62% of the exporting firms start export operations within 3 years. Foreign shareholders within the firm and an entrepreneur with previous exporting experience are noted to significantly increase the probability that a firm internationalizes early. We find marked differences in the behaviour of indigenous and foreign-invested firms, and between direct and indirect exporters. For example, for an indigenous firm the more foreign experience its entrepreneur has, the less likely it is to start exporting early. As far as indirect exporting is concerned, business networks are significant determinants of the extent of such exporting, but delays the internationalization process of indigenous firms. The more firms in China export, the more time their managers need to spend on government regulations, although perhaps counter-intuitively, this was not found to discourage exporting. Overall, the findings suggest that exporting by indigenous Chinese firms is often due to challenging or adverse domestic conditions.     

Exclusive dealing and common agency in international markets

This paper investigates the contractual choice between exclusive dealing and common agency in a simple international oligopoly model where products are sold through intermediaries. We find that when trade barriers are high, domestic firms tend to adopt exclusive dealing contracts whereas trade liberalization may lead firms to choose common agency. Social welfare can be raised be prohibiting exclusive dealing (common agency) when trade barriers are high (low) and products are close substitutes.     

中国因素与国际油价

中国有两大因素将继续推动国际原油和天然气价格走高．一是为中国铁路运力紧张导致煤炭运输中断和延误．二是中国原油进口不断增长,中国政府正在着手建立战略石油储备。     

Asymmetric competition in retail store formats: Evaluating inter- and intra-format spatial effects

Our study aims to analyze the role of store format in retail competitive interactions, specifically, the relationship between growth, location strategy, and market response. To assess this relationship, we propose an extension of the classic models of spatial interaction, which incorporate the asymmetric competitive effects linked to the concept of store format. An empirical application allows us to confirm greater spatial rivalry within store formats (intra-format) than between store formats (inter-format). This implies a certain hierarchical organization when consumers select a retail store, first choosing the type of store at which they will shop and later a particular store within this format. The results are important for retailers who want to configure an optimal network of store locations as well as public administrators who must regulate commercial activity.     

Evaluating service quality and consumer satisfaction in emerging markets

Developing economies offer tremendous potential for future growth and organizations appreciating these consumers’ requirements stand to reap considerable returns. However, compared with more developed economies published consumer studies are few. In particular, there is a dearth of service quality research and hardly any from Africa. Furthermore, the little available research tends to apply Western methodologies, which may not be entirely appropriate. This research investigates East African consumer perceptions of retail banking using an approach that takes account of the research context. Qualitative research was undertaken to define the relevant service attributes. Performance along these was then investigated through a survey with over 2000 respondents. Principal component analysis identifies 13 core service dimensions and multinomial logistic regression reveals which are the key drivers of customer satisfaction. Comparison of the results with studies from other regions confirms that established standardized research instruments are likely to miss or under‐represent service attributes important in developing countries.     

Of markets,products and prices: The effects of the euro on European firms

The introduction of the euro was initially expected to boost trade by an enormous percentage. Following many downward revisions of original estimates the current consensus estimate amounts to an increase of about 5 per cent. In view of the initial high expectations this is often seen as a dismal result. It is, however, based on aggregate data and may therefore hide important microeconomic gains that arise even for a given level of trade fl ows. This paper uses detailed product and firm level data to shed light on these hidden gains. This paper is based on the EFIGE Report 2008, issued under the same title as Bruegel Blueprint Series Volume VIII. The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Community’s Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) under grant agreement No. 225551 and from the Bank of France. The views expressed in this publication are the sole responsibility of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the European Commission or the Bank of France. We are grateful to Andrew Fielding for editorial support. Opinions expressed in this publication are those of the authors alone.     

Sources of increasing systemic risk in international financial markets

In its annual report, published in June, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) warned of increasing systemic risk in international financial markets. Competitive pressures will intensify in the years to come and financial institutions and regulators around the world appear ill-prepared to cope with the resulting challenges. The pressures are expected to grow for three reasons above all: the prospective “Big Bang” of the Japanese financial system, a further erosion of the Glass-Steagall restrictions in the United States and the preparations of financial institutions in Europe to position themselves for the introduction of the euro.¹