R&D and aggregate fluctuations

Empirical observations raise interesting questions regarding the sources of the excessive volatility in the R&D sector as well as the nature of the relation between the sector and aggregate fluctuations. Using US data for the period 1959–2007, we identify sectoral technology and capital investment-specific shocks by employing a Vector Autoregression. The identifying assumptions are motivated by a two-sector dynamic general equilibrium model. Controlling for real and nominal factors, we find that capital investment-specific shocks explain 70 percent of fluctuations of R&D investment, while R&D technology shocks explain 30 percent of the variation of aggregate output, net of R&D investment. Technology shocks jointly explain almost all the variation of output in the R&D sector and 78 percent of the variation of output in the rest of the economy. They also constitute the main factor of the procyclicality of R&D investment.     

Industry evolution and R&D externalities

R&D externalities can imply ranges of aggregate increasing returns to scale in R&D. As a consequence several equilibria can exist involving different numbers of firms and different R&D investment levels. In a theoretical model the equilibrium dynamics are analyzed, showing that cyclical fluctuations of the number of firms and R&D investment may be expected, and that the long-run equilibrium is highly sensitive to investors' initial beliefs. The model is tested empirically using a unique database comprising competing firms in various R&D races.     

Introduction: Input–Output Analysis of Interindustry R&D Spillovers

As an introduction to this special issue on intersectoral R&D spillovers, I shall first explain what these spillovers are and how economists try to estimate them. I shall then describe the seven papers selected for this issue from the expanding literature on R&D spillovers, summarize their major results and suggest further avenues of research in this area.     

Issues in Assessing the Effect of Interindustry R&D Spillovers

This paper aims to clarify three issues concerning the weighting methodol ogy generally used to evaluate interindustry R&D spillovers. These issues concern the likely nature of the spillovers estimated through different types of supporting matrices; the similarity between input–output (IO), technology flows and technological proximity matrices; and the relevance of the assumption that a single matrix can be used for different countries. Data analyses of weighting components show that technology flows matrices are in an intermediate position between IO matrices and technological proximity matrices, but closer to the former. The various IO matrices, as well as the three technological proximity matrices, are very similar to each other. The panel data estimates of the effect of different types of interindustry R&D spillovers on industrial productivity growth in the G7 countries reject the hypotheses that a technology flows matrix can be approximated by an IO matrix and that a single IO matrix can be usedfor different countries. By transitivity, the procedure that comprises using a single technology flow for several countries is not reliable. The international comparison shows that each country benefits from different types of R&D externality. In Japan and, to a lesser extent, in the US, the rate of return to direct R&D is very high and is likely to compensate for relatively weak interindustry R&D spillover effects. In the five other industrialized countries, the reverse observation is true: strong social rates of return to R&D counterbal ance the poor performances of direct R&D.     

企业研发决策、政府资助方案及最优资助配比

本文对企业和政府在企业研发决策中研发组织方式进行了理论分析,研究了不同市场和不同决策下的政府的资助方案及最优资助配比。研究发现,在独立研发的情况下,封闭市场需要政府资助诱导企业私人研发的投入,且最优配比为1:2;出口导向型市场政府资助对企业私人研发的投入无诱导作用;进口导向型市场企业无需政府资助亦会进行私人研发投入。在产学研合作的情况下,封闭市场中支付学研机构的研发费用率k和政府资助s满足(1+s)(1-k)=1.5时达最优资助配比。     

Governance and effects of public R&D subsidies: Evidence from China

This study examines the effects of public research and development (R&D) subsidies and the governance of such subsidies on firm productivity based on the analysis of a firm-level panel dataset between 1998 and 2007 in China. It is found that public R&D subsidies tend to support more productive firms and the productivity of these government-backed firms is improved further after they get the government support. Less attention is paid to the observable or measurable performance measurements in ex-ante project selection, and the ex-post effects are stronger when the governance of the public R&D subsidies becomes more decentralized due to an exogenous policy change. In other words, better decentralization of governance is associated with more pronounced effects of R&D subsidies. Identification concerns are addressed with various approaches to confirm the treatment effect of public R&D subsidies and the governance of such subsidies.     

Mining external R&D

Open Innovation presses the case for timely and thorough intelligence concerning research and development activities conducted outside one’s organization. To take advantage of this wealth of R&D, one needs to establish a systematic “tech mining” process. We propose a 5-stage framework that extends literature review into research profiling and pattern recognition to answer posed technology management questions. Ultimately one can even discover new knowledge by screening research databases.Once one determines the value in mining external R&D, tough issues remain to be overcome. Technology management has developed a culture that relies more on intuition than on evidence. Changing that culture and implementing effective technical intelligence capabilities is worth the effort. P&G's reported gains in innovation call attention to the huge payoff potential.     

R&D subsidies and productivity in eastern European countries

This paper shows that R&D subsidy policies at the European Union (EU) and national levels stimulated labor productivity in Central and Eastern European countries (CEEC) in the years after their entry to the EU. However, the average impact of national funding on labor productivity was higher for countries in the Western control group than in the CEEC sample. EU R&D subsidies compensated the CEEC in part for the greater innovation impact of Western economies. Although they crowded out some R&D subsidies by local governments at the country level, the EU subsidies crowded in many national and local subsidies at the firm level. Local/regional state innovation aid to enterprises encouraged no increase in labor productivity in all but one of the sample CEEC countries. These impacts are assessed in a sequential structural econometric model estimated using Eurostat’s collection of Community Innovation Surveys covering the years 2006–2014.     

The R&D knowledge base in city-agglomerations and knowledge searching in product innovative SMEs

ABSTRACT

This paper looks at the relation between the R&D knowledge base of city-agglomerations and knowledge sourcing in product innovative small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). The small open Belgian economy is used as a test case. The characteristics of the city-agglomeration’s R&D knowledge are posited to be instrumental for SMEs’ reliance on particular sources of information for innovation. The R&D knowledge base is studied as a multidimensional concept consisting of R&D capacity, R&D specialization and R&D diversification. A representative sample of product innovative SMEs drawn from two waves of the Community Innovation Survey between 2008 and 2012 reveals that a strong R&D capacity at city-agglomeration level favours private external information sources for innovation, but has no influence on the likelihood to rely on public sources for innovation. Accordance between specialization of the private R&D knowledge base and the SME’s activities positively influences the use of clients as information sources for innovation, whereas under these circumstances supplier responsiveness turns out to be less frequently solicited for. A more diversified private R&D environment reduces the reliance on universities and public research organizations as information sources for innovation. A public R&D knowledge base specialized in natural sciences or engineering favours information sources from universities.     

Technology ladders and R&D in dynamic Cournot markets

Motivated by dramatic and unpredictable technological advances in energy production (for instance drilling and extraction of shale oil), we extend Cournot models of competition to incorporate research and development (R&D) that can lead to (stochastic) drops in production costs. Our model combines features of patent racing with dynamic market structure, capturing the interplay between the immediate competition in terms of production rates and the long-term competition in R&D. The resulting Markov Nash equilibrium is found from a sequence of one-step static games arising between R&D successes, and several numerical examples and extensive analysis of the emerging comparative statics are presented. Analyzing the relationship between current market dominance and the level of R&D investments, we find that market leaders tend to invest more, which in some sense makes oligopoly dynamically unstable. We show that anticipated market transitions have long-term impact; for example the potential of future monopoly can spur R&D investment now, even if the firm is presently uncompetitive and not actively producing. We also show that, surprisingly, random innovations have an ambiguous effect on R&D. This feature, which is driven by the Cournot framework, contrasts with the common situation whereby uncertainty lowers innovation and delays R&D investments. Finally, we demonstrate that increased competition may actually increase efforts to innovate through higher desire to achieve dominance. This would match the anecdotal evidence that the threat of market entrants forces incumbents to maintain high R&D.     

Environmental regulations in private and mixed duopolies: Taxes on emissions versus green R&D subsidies

In this article, we compare two kinds of environmental regulations—emissions taxes and green R&D subsidies—in private and mixed-duopoly markets in the presence of R&D spillovers. We show that a green R&D subsidy is better (worse) than an emissions tax when the green R&D is efficient (inefficient), irrespective of R&D spillovers, whereas the existence of a publicly owned firm encourages the government to adopt a subsidy policy. We also show that the optimal policy choice depends on R&D efficiency and spillovers. In particular, when green R&D is inefficient and the spillover rate is low (high), the government should choose an emissions tax and (not) privatize the state-owned firm. When green R&D is efficient, however, an R&D subsidy is better, but a privatization policy is not desirable for society, irrespective of spillovers.     

Estimating Regional Variations of R&D Effects on Productivity Growth by Entropy Econometrics

Abstract

In this paper we adopt an entropy econometrics-based estimator to study regional variations in regression coefficients and apply it to analyse productivity growths generated by R&D activities at a regional level. Considering the possible effects of the region's own R&D stock as well as the spillovers produced in other regions, the paper proposes the use of an entropy-based technique to estimate these effects for a specific location. Depending on the degree of heterogeneity of the set of regions analysed, it is possible that some of these regions present characteristics that enable them to more easily convert R&D efforts (generated in the region itself or obtained from other regions by R&D spillovers) into productivity gains, whereas in other regions the effect of (direct or spillover generated) R&D activities may be irrelevant. We illustrate this idea with an empirical application for Spanish regions.

RÉSUMÉ Dans la présente communication, nous adoptons un estimateur d'entropie à base économétrique pour l’étude de variations régionales des coefficients de régression et leur application pour l'analyse de d'augmentations de la productivité produites par des activités de recherche et développement à l’échelon régional. En se penchant sur les effets possibles du stock de recherches et développement propre à la région, ainsi que les retombées produites dans d'autres régions, la communication propose l'emploi d'une technique à base d'entropie pour effectuer une évaluation de ces effets pour un lieu spécifique. En fonction du degré d'hétérogénéité du groupe de régions analysé, il est possible que ces régions présentent des caractéristiques leur permettant de convertir plus facilement des interventions de recherche et développement (R&D) (générées dans cette même région, ou obtenues d'autres régions par retombées de R&D) en gains de productivité, alors que dans d'autres régions, l'effet (direct ou par retombée) d'activités de R&D pourra n'avoir aucune pertinence. Nous illustrons cette idée avec une application empirique pour des régions d'Espagne.

EXTRACTO En este estudio adoptamos un estimador basado en máxima entropía para estudiar las variaciones regionales en coeficientes de regresión, y lo aplicamos al análisis de los crecimientos de productividad generados por actividades de I+D a nivel regional. Considerando los posibles efectos del stock de I+D propio de la región, así como los spillovers producidos en otras regiones, el estudio propone el uso de una técnica basada en entropía para estimar estos efectos en relación con una ubicación específica. Dependiendo del grado de heterogeneidad del conjunto de regiones analizadas, es posible que algunas de estas regiones presenten características que les permitan convertir más fácilmente los esfuerzos de I+D (generados en la región misma u obtenidos de otras regiones a través de spillovers de I+D) en ganancias de productividad, mientras que en otras regiones el efecto de las actividades de I+D (directas o generadas de spillovers) podrían ser irrelevantes. Ilustramos esta idea con una aplicación empírica para regiones españolas.

摘要:

本文中, 我们采用基于熵计量经济学的估计器研究回归系数的区域变化, 并用它分析地域级R&D活动带来的生产率增长。考虑到区域自身R&D储备和其他区域的人才流入可能带来影响, 本文提出一种熵方法估计这些因素对某个特定区域的影响。根据所分析区域集的异质程度, 其中有些区域可能会表现出一些特征, 使其更容易将R&D能力 (该区域自己产生或者从其他区域流入)转化为生产收益, 而另外一些区域R&D活动的影响 (直接或者流入)与生产收益无关。我们以对西班牙地区的实验应用为例证明了这一论点。     

Contributions and Channels of Interindustry R&D Spillovers: An Estimation for Japanese High-tech Industries

This paper estimates the contributions of R&D spillovers to four high-tech industries in Japan—general machinery, electrical machinery, transportation machinery and chemicals—by estimating the trans-log cost and share functions that include the R&D stock variables of own and spillover-source industries. The candidates for spillover- source industries are selected on the basis of large R&D flow or R&D proximity. The R&D flow measures the spillover embodied in purchased intermediate goods using input–output coefficients. The R&D proximity measures the extent of similarity between a pair of industries of the distribution of R&D expenditures across research fields, and is expected to show the likelihood of spillover at the R&D stage. The results suggest that electrical machinery benefited from R&D in the chemical industry, through the purchase of intermediate goods, whereas general machinery and transportation machinery benefited from R&D in the metal products industry, through R&D proximity. There was no evidence of the chemical industry benefiting from R&D spillovers. These results clearly imply that the contributions and the channels of R&D spillovers are diverse, casting doubt on earlier studies that used weighted sums of R&D expenditures (or their stocks) of other industries as aggregate spillover variables.     

Optimal R&D investment for a risk-averse entrepreneur

Entrepreneurs investing in R&D projects face technical uncertainty associated with the cost to completion of the project, which is idiosyncratic and inherently unhedgeable. We extend existing real options models of R&D investment to incorporate the cost of bearing this unhedgeable risk and find it decreases risk-averse entrepreneurs’ valuations of R&D projects and increases the minimum NPVs required for continued investment in R&D (threshold NPVs) relative to ‘unpriced risk’ values and threshold NPVs. As in the ‘unpriced risk’ case, for less risk-averse entrepreneurs with small R&D projects, threshold NPVs remain negative and decrease with technical uncertainty. However, for sufficiently risk-averse entrepreneurs with sufficiently large R&D projects, threshold NPVs can become positive and increase with technical uncertainty.     

Impact of R&D and Technology Diffusion on Productivity Growth: Empirical Evidence for 10 OECD Countries

This paper examines the empirical evidence on the impact of performed R&D and of R&D embodied in intermediate and capital goods on productivity performance in 10 major OECD countries over the last two decades. To quantify intersectoral and international technology flows, industry-level embodied R&D variables were constructed from an input–output (IO) R&D embodiment model. The productivity variables used are discrete Divisia growth indexes of total factor productivity (TFP), which were estimated from an IO growth accounting model. The results from pooled regressions indicate that the rates of return of the R&D variables were positively significant and increasing in the 1980s. In particular, embodied R&D is an important source for TFP growth in services, indicating very high social returns of the flows of capital-embodied technology into this sector. Moreover, the information and communi-cation technology (ICT) cluster of industries played a major role in the generation and cquisition of new technologies at the international level.     

The impact of open innovation on firm performance: The moderating effects of internal R&D and environmental turbulence

Researchers have identified open innovation as two dimensions, external technology acquisition and external technology exploitation. This study explores the direct and interactive effects of these two dimensions on firm performance and further examines the moderation effects of two factors (i.e., internal R&D and environmental turbulence) on the relationship between both types of open innovation and firm performance. Based on Chesbrough's open innovation model, multi-item scales were developed to measure two dimensions of firm-level open innovation. Survey results of 176 Taiwanese high tech manufacturing firms provide support for most hypotheses. The result shows that external technology acquisition positively affects firm performance, whereas external technology exploitation does not. This study also finds that external technology acquisition strengthens the relationship between external technology exploitation and firm performance. Both external technology acquisition and external technology exploitation are positively related to firm performance under high internal R&D investment and a turbulent market environment. However, technological turbulence only positively affects the relationship between external technological acquisition, but not external technology exploitation, and firm performance. The findings contribute to enhanced understanding of how the degree of leveraging open innovation dimensions depends on their complementarity, internal R&D, and environmental turbulence.     

From mind to market: A global,dynamic analysis of R&D

Existing models of R&D are not easily reconciled with four observable aspects of R&D: initial technologies (ideas) need to be developed further, only a minority of initial ideas are successfully brought to the market, production and process innovations take place simultaneously (whereby, initially, there is no production at all), and process innovations are implemented for technologies that are destined to leave the market. We present a detailed bifurcation analysis for a dynamic model of R&D that captures these observations in one, unifying framework. As we provide a global analysis, we do not limit initial technologies to carry marginal costs that are below the choke price. We show that there always exists a critical value of initial marginal cost above which the firm does not initiate any (R&D) activity; the path to the saddle-point steady state is never globally optimal. We also sketch some tentative policy implications of our analysis.     

负债融资对我国生物医药上市公司研发投入的影响研究

生物医药产业已经成为最具成长性的产业之一,其长周期、高风险、技术密集的行业特征使生物医药企业较一般传统企业而言面临着更甚的融资困境。论文选取2014-2018年我国生物医药行业上市公司的样本数据,分别从负债的规模、期限和来源三个方面研究负债融资对企业R&D投入的影响,研究结果表明:负债规模、短期负债、长期负债、银行借款以及商业信用均与企业R&D投入强度显著负相关。     

研发投入、内部控制与财务风险相关性研究

由于研发创新能为企业带来可观的投资回报,因此有更多的企业注重提高自身的研发创新水平。近几年,我国整体研发规模在不断扩大,但企业关于研发投入的财务风险管理方面还存在不足之处。本文选取2016-2020年国内A股上市企业为研究对象,对研发投入、内部控制与财务风险的相关性进行实证分析。研究结果显示:内部控制质量与财务风险负相关;研发投入与财务风险正相关;并提出相应对策,以期通过这一研究,对我国上市企业把控研发投入力度,提升内部控制质量,降低财务风险发生概率提供理论与实践的参考和借鉴。     

Creating technology candidates for disruptive innovation: Generally applicable R&D strategies

In this paper, we first examined the importance of technology creation in technological disruptive innovations (DIs), and found both academic scholars and industrial practitioners have underestimated the challenging nature and importance of technology at least in technological DI. We then moved upstream to study empirically how technology candidates could be created purposefully for potential technological DI. Four generally applicable R&D strategies were abstracted from intensive studies on 37 technological DIs, by applying the central thoughts of principal component analysis which transforms many correlated variables into a small number of uncorrelated ones. The four R&D strategies abstracted are miniaturization, simplification, augmentation and exploitation for another application. Their creation of DI was examined, postulated and then demonstrated by means of the Delphi method. The frequencies of their utilization were also compiled and the implications discussed. This study has further advanced the knowledge at the front-end of R&D, i.e. the technology perspective of DI. It hopes to facilitate more purposeful creation of technology candidates for potential technological DI in future.