The economic impact of tourism in SIDS

Small Island Developing States (SIDS) are faced with many challenges to economic development. Tourism is seen as a viable, and sometimes, only means of economic growth. This research compares the economic impact of tourism to seven SIDS. The research employs input output analysis, linkage analysis and a CGE model to assess the macroeconomic and sectoral impacts of increased tourism in these islands. The findings show that the transportation sector remains a key sector. The tourism income multipliers show that tourism generates a large amount of economic activity but the income that remains in the destinations is often very small. The results show that taking advantage of economies of scale maybe a way to maximize the benefits from tourism.     

Taxing tourism: enhancing or reducing welfare?

Using a modified simple general equilibrium model of international trade, the theoretical construct proposed by this research note shows that taxing tourism may increase or decrease economic benefit depending on the destination's market power. Yet, from a social point of view, taxing tourism can be welfare-enhancing, as externalities of rapid tourism growth should be internalized. Therefore, a social rather than a private optimum should be pursued via taxing tourism in order to guarantee sustainable tourism. From political economy perspectives, however, the actual taxation policies may not be welfare-enhancing, as they heavily depend on the political system and power relations in the destination.     

Implications of a long-term increase in oil prices for tourism

It is expected that global oil prices will increase in the future. Assessing the overall economic impacts on tourism is difficult, as oil price rises will be concomitant with global changes in other commodity prices, exchange rates, and incomes. A general equilibrium perspective is therefore presented in this paper. The model couples a global general equilibrium model with a purpose-built CGE model of New Zealand, which focuses on describing tourism supply and demand in some detail. The results indicate a decrease in real gross national disposable income of 1.7% for a doubling of oil price and a 9% reduction in the real value of tourism exports. As a result of segment-specific price increases and differing income and exchange rate effects and elasticities, the reduction in demand for tourism in New Zealand by 18 segments differs substantially. The greatest reduction in demand is observed for tourists from the United Kingdom.     

Appraising the Economic Impact of the “Opening up to Mainland Chinese Tourist Arrivals” Policy on Taiwan with a Tourism-CGE Model

The purpose of this study is to establish a tourism-CGE model to appraise the “opening up to Mainland Chinese tourist arrivals” policy on Taiwan. Using the model, this study suggests that the multiplier effect of the Mainland Chinese tourists’ expenditure in Taiwan is 1.378, which is slightly lower than that for tourists from Japan and Korea. With 1,000 (3,000) Mainland Chinese tourist arrivals per day, labour demand for about 48,000 (144,000) people would be created, along with 38,146 (114,463) million New Taiwan dollars volume of product, which would account for about 0.354% (1.063%) of annual GDP growth. The results also reveal that the policy would not necessarily contribute positively to every industry, and industrial restructuring might occur. Finally, some tourism policy recommendations are discussed.     

The impacts of Australia's departure tax: Tourism versus the economy?

This study estimates the flow and expenditure effects of the recent increase in Australia's Passenger Movement Charge (PMC), as well as the economic impacts on the Australian economy and the tourism industry. After discussing the nature of the PMC, it outlines the types of industry stakeholder concerns as to its effects on tourism both before and after the recent increase. It then presents a framework developed by the authors that can be used to distinguish the effects of the increased PMC on the wider economy and on different tourism markets. A computable general equilibrium model is then used to estimate the economic impacts of the increased charge on different Australian tourism markets – inbound, outbound and domestic. The implications of the modelling results for the validity of the industry criticisms of the PMC are discussed. The results confirm that the tourism industry will suffer, though it also indicates that the Australian economy will gain – thus there is a clash between the industry and wider economic interests. The types of issues addressed in this paper can inform policy making regarding the gainers and losers from departure tax increases in tourism destinations generally.     

Economics of tourism investment in data scarce countries

Ex-ante economic impact analyses are required to demonstrate the development impact and viability of multilateral loans. These assessments are often performed under tight timelines, in data scarce environments and with limited opportunity for primary data collection. This paper develops a framework for assessing tourism interventions under these challenging conditions and evaluates a US$15 million tourism investment in Belize. This paper contributes to the literature by: (i) developing a generalizable approach to building economy-wide models in data scarce environments; (ii) generating realistic expectations of agent responses with quasi-contingent valuation and auto-regressive integrated moving average methods. Applying the first economy-wide model for Belize, results show that the investment would stimulate GDP by 3% and reduce unemployment from 12% to 10% by 2040.     

旅游收入、交通基础设施和二氧化碳排放——基于PVAR模型的多变量经济学分析

本文基于中国30个省级行政区2000—2019年的面板数据,运用广义矩方法估计的面板向量自回归模型,建立一个包含旅游、交通基础设施和二氧化碳排放的多变量计量经济学模型,探讨中国旅游、交通基础设施和二氧化碳排放之间的动态关系及其空间异质性。主要研究结论：（1）全国和东中部地区存在旅游收入和交通基础设施之间的双向格兰杰因果关系,铁路里程对旅游收入的贡献要大于公路里程。（2）全国和东部地区存在旅游收入和二氧化碳排放之间的双向因果关系,旅游收入对东部地区碳排放增长的贡献最大,对西部地区碳排放增长的贡献最小。（3）公路和铁路对二氧化碳的贡献率在中部地区最大。总体上,交通基础设施与二氧化碳排放之间的格兰杰因果关系不显著。本文首次建立了一个多变量经济学分析框架综合性地讨论中国旅游收入、交通基础设施和二氧化碳排放之间的关联。文章提出的研究框架对不同空间区域和尺度的研究和实践均具有一定的启示意义。     

The ubiquity of room taxes

This article examines the case for the imposition of room taxes and attempts to explain their ubiquity. The room tax is analysed using the main criteria for assessing taxes and is compared to property tax. The extent of room tax imposition is surveyed and the possibilities of evasion are discussed.     

Tourism expenditure model — a functional planning and policy-making tool

The Tourism Expenditures Model (TEM) is a short-run systems model which at both the national and regional level can provide a detailed analysis of the nature of tourism-related expenditures. The tourism-related sectors covered are transportation, accommodation, meals and beverages, recreation and entertainment and other purchases disaggregated with respect to time, region and economic subsector. The model is intended to help in the evaluation and planning of specific tourism proposals and in the development of the industry as a whole.     

湖南省品牌旅游资源与旅游经济均衡发展研究

品牌旅游资源与旅游经济的均衡发展是保障区域经济协调发展的有效途径。文章选取湖南省世界遗产在内的699处品牌旅游资源及14个地级市2012~2016年旅游经济发展的相关数据,采用旅游资源相对丰度指数、标准差以及变异系数分析了品牌旅游资源与旅游经济的均衡基础,通过耦合协调评价模型,研究了两者的均衡水平。结果表明:湖南省品牌旅游资源与旅游经济均衡发展基础良好;全省品牌旅游资源开发优于旅游经济增长;各地区均衡水平存在空间异质性与空间集聚性,整体呈低度协调与中度协调连绵片状分布,长沙和张家界2市均衡水平较高,岳阳、郴州、常德、湘西和怀化5市次之,剩余7个地级市均衡水平较低。     

Trends and Forecasts for Inbound Tourism to China

Summary

The development of tourism in China over the last two decades is reviewed. It is argued that the success of the economic reforms in China which has resulted in fast economic growth has also been the main cause of rapid tourism growth in China. Forecasts of international tourist arrivals by source country market and destination region within China are generated over the period 2001-05. An integrative approach is used which combines both time-series and econometric methodologies, termed structural integrated time-series econometric analysis (SITEA).     

Holiday destinations: Understanding the travel choices of Irish tourists

This paper uses a McFadden choice model to measure the importance of destination, household and seasonal characteristics to the tourism destination choices of Irish households. The analysis is based on quarterly survey data of Irish households' travel destinations between 2000 and 2006. In total, some 55,000 holiday trips were observed. Destination characteristics such as temperature, GDP and coastline are found to positively influence choice probabilities, while population density and distance have a negative effect on choice. Household-specific characteristics such as the number of children and people over 60 in a household are found to be important. We also identify differences in preferences across seasons and a change over time of the effect of destination country GDP on Irish holiday destination choices.     

Tourism as a community industry—an ecological model of tourism development

Tourism can be a far-reaching agent of change, yet too often planning for the industry is based solely on isolated economic criteria. Here it is argued that tourism is essentially resource-based and by ignoring social and ecological implications the industry is in danger of undermining its very existence. For the industry and the destination community to benefit a mutually symbiotic relationship should be developed, a relationship modelled on an ecosystem framework.     

长江中游地区产业结构对旅游业碳排放的影响研究

基于2000~2016年长江中游地区省域面板数据,构建产业结构和旅游业发展水平综合评价指标体系,并核算出该地区旅游业碳排放量,在此基础上通过建立向量自回归(VAR)模型,运用Johansen协整检验、格兰杰因果检验、脉冲响应和方差分解工具,分析产业结构、旅游业发展与旅游业碳排放的演变特征及影响机制。结果表明:研究区产业结构和旅游业发展水平在逐步提升的同时表现出显著的区域非平衡特征;产业结构、旅游业发展和旅游业碳排放之间存在长期均衡关系,且产业结构调整对碳排放影响更大;产业结构优化在长期内有抑制碳排放增加的作用,但目前研究区技术进步对旅游业的减排效应尚未显现,未来减排空间较大。     

Tourism development,energy consumption and Environmental Kuznets Curve: Trivariate analysis in the panel of developed and developing countries

The study investigates the relationship between economic growth, carbon dioxide emissions, tourism development, energy demand, domestic investment and health expenditures with an aim to test the validity of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis in the panel of three diversified World's region including East Asia & Pacific, European Union and High income OECD and Non-OECD countries. The study covers the period of last nine years i.e. 2005–2013. The study used the principal component analysis (PCA) to construct tourism development index which is the amalgamation of number of tourists' arrivals, tourism receipts and international tourism expenditures. The results validate the inverted U-shaped relationship between carbon emissions and per capita income in the region. The results further substantiate the following causal relationships i.e. i) tourism-induced carbon emissions, ii) energy-induced emissions, iii) investment – induced emissions, iv) growth led tourism, v) investment led tourism and vi) health led tourism development in the region.