An econometric analysis of the main components of M3 in the Euro area

An Econometric Analysis of the Main Components of M3 in the Euro Area. — The main result is that the four components of M3 in the euro area can be explained in terms of a small set of explanatory variables (nominal GDP and interest rates) for the sample period January 1990 — September 1999 both in terms of levels and as shares of M3. Moreover, overall cointegration tests broadly support the hypothesis of long-run stability of the demand for the components of M3 and for M3 itself in nominal terms. Around the start of Stage Three of Monetary Union significant substitution between the components of M3 is detected. A refinement of the empirical analysis takes into account the correlation of the unexplained movements of the individual components using the SUR technique.     

The domestic term structure and international interest rate linkages: A cointegration analysis

The Domestic Term Structure and International Interest Rate Linkages. A Cointegration Analysis. -This paper analyzes cointegration relations between domestic interest rates with different maturities and between the US and German interest rates of the same maturity by means of the Johansen procedure and single-equation error correction models. It analyzes also the implied common stochastic trends. The author concludes that in the long run, interest spreads within both countries strongly dominate and linkages between the interest rates of both countries are only important in the short run.     

Eastern Germany and the conflict between wage adjustment,investment, and employment: A numerical analysis

Eastern Germany and the Conflict between Wage Adjustment, Investment, and Employment: A Numerical Analysis. — In this paper, some light is shed on the dynamics of the adjustment process in eastern Germany by studying the linkages between the dynamics of wage adjustment, investment, and employment. An extended dynamic investment model, which includes adjustment costs for capital and revision costs for investment, is presented. This model is specified according to the east German economy and analyzed numerically by an optimization method based on direct collocation. Results are obtained for the time horizon of adjustment and for the implications of different wage strategies on the path of investment and employment.     

The demand for M3 and inflation forecasts: An empirical analysis for Switzerland

The Demand for M3 and Inflation Forecasts: An Empirical Analysis for Switzerland. — This paper argues that money should continue to play an important role in monetary policy even if a central bank pursues a strategy based on inflation forecasts. Within the context of an error correction model, the paper delivers empirical evidence that both the growth rate of the monetary aggregate M3 and the size of excess M3 incorporate useful information with regard to future inflation in Switzerland. This evidence strongly suggests that money should remain an important indicator for monetary policy.     

Sustainability and comovement of government debt in EMU Countries: A panel data analysis

We investigate the sustainability of fiscal policy in a set of 19 European Monetary Union (EMU) countries over the period 1970–2016. Panel unit root tests in the presence of cross-section dependence show that the government debt series is stationary, indicating that the solvency condition would be satisfied for these countries. This confirms the effectiveness of the austerity measures implemented by these member states. Moreover, an unobserved common factor drives the comovement of government debt in the Eurozone.     

The stability of German money demand: Tests of the cointegration relation

The Stability of German Money Demand: Tests of the Cointegration Relation. — In this study, two money demand functions are specified in single equation error correction as well as triangular error correction form involving real M1 (M3), real GNP, a short-and a long-term interest rate. Using various tests, it is shown that there may be a cointegration relation even after the German Monetary Union (GMU) was established in 1990. But the long-run coefficients of GNP and the interest rate probably have a structural break in 1973, when the Bundesbank changed its monetary regime, and in 1990, when the GMU was formed. The tests support weak exogeneity of real GNP and the interest rate.     

Public budgetary rules and GDP growth: An empirical study on OECD and twelve european countries

We study the long-term effects of budgetary rules on GDP growth rate and analyse the determinants of the short-term GDP growth dynamics. For both a sample of 19 OECD and a subsample of 12 European countries, we show that, in the long run, improvements in the cyclically adjusted budget balance, as well as increases in the tax burden, have negative effects on GDP growth. The highest effect of fiscal policy on GDP growth would be obtained if the structural deficits were used to increase the market size by reducing the tax burden. In line with Barro (1990), a deficit-financed reduction of tax burden has a stronger effect for European than for OECD countries, because in Europe the government size with respect to market size is too large. Therefore, if GDP growth is a dominant policy objective, in Europe specific actions should redress the 2012 Treaty toward a reduction of the tax burden.     

The determinants of foreign direct investment in transforming economies: Empirical evidence from Hungary and China

The Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment in Transforming Economies: Empirical Evidence from Hungary and China. — This paper analyzes what factors best explain foreign capital inflows into Hungary and China during the period 1978–92. The size of the host-country markets is found to play a positive role, while the cost-of-capital variables and political instability are negatively correlated with investment inflows. It supports the hypothesis that low-cost labour and currency depreciation is an important factor in explaining how much foreign capital flows into a particular country. There is little evidence to support classical hypotheses concerning tariff barriers and import variables. The OECD growth rates show significant positive correlation with FDI in Hungary.     

The determinants and long-term projections of saving rates in Developing Asia

In this paper, we present data on trends over time in domestic saving rates in twelve economies in Developing Asia during the 1966–2007 period and analyze the determinants of these trends. We find that domestic saving rates in Developing Asia have, in general, been high and rising but that there have been substantial differences from economy to economy, that the main determinants of these trends appear to have been the age structure of the population (especially the aged dependency ratio), income levels, and the level of financial sector development, and that the impacts of income levels and the level of financial sector development have been nonlinear (convex and concave, respectively). We then project future trends in domestic saving rates in Developing Asia for the 2011–2030 period based on our estimation results and find that the domestic saving rate in Developing Asia as a whole will remain roughly constant during the next two decades despite rapid population aging in some economies in Developing Asia because population aging will occur much later in other economies and because the negative impact of population aging on the domestic saving rate will be largely offset by the positive impact of higher income levels.     

The fundamental determinants of financial integration in the European Union

The Fundamental Determinants of Financial Integration in the European Union. — This paper focuses on the fundamental determinants of the degree of financial integration in the European Union over the period 1974–1993. Using closed interest rate differentials to measure the intensity of capital controls and applying a pooled cross-section time-series approach, the authors find realized inflation, government instability and gross fixed capital formation to have a strong and significantly positive effect on the intensity of capital export controls. In addition, they expect the influence of economic and financial market structure on closed interest rate differentials to increase in the future.     

政治文献英译的策略

政治文献英译的目的是让译文受者在摄取信息的过程中不遇到障碍,明确无误地理解和把握译文所传递的信息要旨。政治文献英译的翻译应注意：译文信息传递的功能对策;译文文化信息的保留和再现;译文语篇逻辑的重构。     

Modeling Cyclical Asymmetries in GDP: International Evidence

This paper models asymmetric behavior in GDP growth in the USA, Germany, France, and Japan. It develops smooth transition autoregressive models and interprets nonlinear dynamics in terms of cyclical asymmetries. A procedure for defining data-based, qualitative cyclical regimes from the estimated models is proposed, and generalized impulse response functions are computed to assess to what extent the response to a shock changes over different phases of the cycle.     

The information content of M3 for future inflation in the Euro area

The Information Content of M3 for Future Inflation in the Euro Area. — The information content of M3 for future inflation in the euro area is investigated from a number of perspectives. Our results confirm that a significant positive association exists between the real money gap and future inflation up to five to six quarters ahead. It is also shown that, although the extended P-star model outperforms the rival model in some respect, the hypothesis that no useful information is contained in rival evidence can be rejected.     

Economic Fluctuations in the U.S. and Euro Area: Quantifying the Contribution of Technical Change

This article aims at quantifying the contribution of technical change to cyclical fluctuations in the U.S. and euro area. We distinguish technical progress in labor-augmenting and capital-augmenting change. To this end, we derive and estimate a New Keynesian DSGE model embodying a constant elasticity of substitution (CES) production function for both areas. Our main findings are: (i) capital-augmenting progress is the main source of technical change volatility; (ii) labor-augmenting shocks give a negligible contribution to the variance of output; (iii) technical change (of both types) explains more economic fluctuations in the U.S. than in the euro area; and (iv) historical decomposition of GDP growth over our sample period (1980–2008) shows that capital-augmenting progress is one of the key drivers of the business cycle.     

Dynamic Spillovers in the United States: Stock Market,Housing, Uncertainty,and the Macroeconomy

In this study, we examine dynamic spillovers among the housing market, stock market, and economic policy uncertainty (EPU) in the United States in a unified empirical framework. Applying the Diebold and Yilmaz (2012) methodology on monthly data over the period 1987M1–2014M11, our findings reveal the following features. First, the transmission of various types of shocks contributes significantly to economic fluctuations in the United States. Second, spillovers show large variations over time. Third, in the wake of the global financial crisis, spillovers have been exceptionally high in historical perspective. In particular, we find large spillovers from EPU, as well as stock market and housing returns to other variables, in particular inflation, industrial production and the federal funds rate. These results illustrate the contagion from the housing and financial crisis to the real economy and the strong policy reaction to stabilize the economy.     

Dilemma of the Silver Standard Economies: The Case of China

Exchange rate commitments implied in the silver standard originally anchored China's monetary policy and the inflation rate in the early republican period. It was believed that China's free silver standard acted as a natural check on the excessive issuing of notes by warlords and local governments. This consensus view, however, overlooks the fact that the silver standard was inherently unstable because it left no room for monetary policy to stabilize output and inflation. This article employs a formal structural model to show that a fiat currency unlinked to fluctuations in the price of silver that allows government to implement self‐adjusting monetary policies would further stabilize China's output and inflation.     

Keynes's Approach to Money: An Assessment After Seventy Years

This paper first examines two approaches to money adopted by Keynes in the General Theory. The first is the more familiar ‘supply and demand’ equilibrium approach of Chapter 13 incorporated within conventional macroeconomics textbooks. Indeed, even Post Keynesians utilizing Keynes's ‘finance motive’ or the ‘horizontal’ money supply curve adopt similar methodology. The second approach of the General Theory is presented in Chapter 17, where Keynes drops ‘money supply and demand’ in favor of a liquidity preference approach to asset prices that offers a more satisfactory treatment of money's role in constraining effective demand. In the penultimate section, I return to Keynes's earlier work in the Treatise on Money as well as the early drafts of the General Theory to obtain a better understanding of the nature of money. I conclude with policy implications.