Trade in Educational Services: Trends and Emerging Issues

This paper examines the trends and emerging issues in trade in educational services. It provides rough estimates of the size of the international market in educational services drawing on the limited data available in services trade statistics and data on foreign students in tertiary education in OECD countries. It outlines the current commitments for trade in educational services under the General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS). It also reviews the implications of the on‐going GATS negotiations for further multilateral trade liberalisation in this sector. It points out that OECD countries have been noticeably reluctant to make proposals for further liberalisation of trade in educational services. One reason for this is the concern in many countries about the potential threats posed to cultural values and national traditions by growing trade liberalisation in educational services. Finally, the paper reviews some of the main policy issues arising from trade in educational services.     

Regulatory barriers to trade in services: A new database and composite indices

This paper presents new data on services trade regulation for 46 countries in 22 services sectors over 6 years (2014–2019). The data consist of qualitative information which is scored and weighted to produce composite indices. They cover market access and national treatment restrictions with respect to all GATS modes of supply, but also behind the border domestic regulation such as licensing, non-transparent regulatory procedures and competition policy. The database is updated annually. The trade restrictiveness indices (STRIs) are significantly correlated with services trade flows, but also with the performance of the sectors subject to the restrictions including logistics performance indicators, interest spreads, density of ATMs and secure servers, broadband penetration and outcomes such as legal rights and the time to resolve insolvency.     

区域服务贸易协定中的“GATS-”条款研究

研究区域服务贸易协定的文献不可胜数,但涉及到"GATS-"条款的文献却是屈指可数。"GATS-"条款具有潜在的危害,理应引起适当的警惕,它们的存在不仅使人质疑"GATS-"下区域协定的合法地位,而且对于整个贸易体系都有着不良的暗示。本文在已有文献的基础上,对区域服务贸易安排的"GATS-"条款的主要特点、存在原因以及潜在的危害进行系统的梳理和分析,为区域服务贸易合作的发展提供有益的参考视角。     

The value of market access and national treatment commitments in services trade agreements

This paper looks at market access and national treatment commitments for services in the General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS) and in 95 regional trade agreements (RTAs) involving the countries that are covered in the OECD Services Trade Restrictiveness Index (STRI). The objective is to quantify the impact of legal bindings on trade in services that result from a reduction in the uncertainty faced by exporters. Bilateral bindings indices are created for five broad service sectors (professional services, computer services, telecoms, financial services and transport services). They indicate how close the sector is from a fully bound regime with no possibility to introduce any new trade barrier, by comparing commitments with the actual trade regime. These bilateral indices are then tested over the period 2000–2014 in a structural gravity model. Despite differences across sectors, the results confirm that the legal bindings typically found in services trade agreements tend to have a positive impact on exports even if no actual liberalisation takes place.     

我国服务贸易非公平竞争的分析和建议

GATS是服务贸易领域第一个多边协议,是乌拉圭回合多边贸易谈判的主要成果之一。根据GATS的规定,国际服务业必将进入逐步自由化阶段．．本文从竞争政策与竞争规则的角度,分析GATS协议中涉及的有关服务贸易的公平竞争原则,并对我国服务贸易领域竞争法的完善提出若干建议。     

Trade in Services: The Elasticity Approach for The Case of Turkey

This study includes the analysis of global trade in the services and service sector in Turkey, and estimates the elasticity of trade in services to real exchange rates and income. There is an increasing role of the service sector in the Turkish economy; however, a decreasing trend of trade in services is taking place. The commitments of the General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS) were found to be ineffective, at least in the case of Turkey. The empirical findings suggest that the real exchange rate is not a significant determinant for the trade in services. We found an inelastic real exchange rate and income elasticities in trade demand functions. However, the value of income elasticity significantly exceeds the value of real exchange rate elasticity.     

Trade in healthcare and health insurance services: WTO/GATS as a supporting actor (?)

The General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS) is far broader in policy coverage than conventional trade agreements for goods. At the same time, governments are offered more flexibility to tailor their obligations to sector- or country-specific needs. As a result, commitments vary widely across sectors and modes of supply. Health insurance has proved far more popular, for instance, than healthcare services. Surprisingly, governments have been less selective in other policy contexts, in particular bilateral investment treaties (BITs). Many signatories of such treaties, including individual EU Members, have undertaken potentially challenging obligations across virtually all service sectors. Yet, though frequently invoked, BITs do not meet the same standards, in terms of transparency, open (consensual) rulemaking and legal certainty, as commitments under the GATS.     

GATS与国际健康服务贸易综述

国际健康服务贸易的兴起给发展中国家带来了贸易获利的机会,但也会对其国民健康体系造成冲击并加剧本已存在的健康服务不平等问题。按照GATS对国际服务贸易的定义,国际健康服务贸易相应也有四种模式,不同的模式发生的动因有所不同,其对发展中国家带来的经济影响也有差异。发展中国家如何促进其健康服务贸易发展并缓解健康服务不平等问题,要考虑健康服务贸易的政策壁垒,从公共政策和贸易政策方面进行调整。     

Movement of Natural Persons and the GATS

Trade in services has expanded considerably in recent years, However, numerous regulatory barriers constrain such trade, especially when it involves the temporary cross-border movement of labour, also termed, movement of natural persons. Many developing countries have the potential to export services through cross-border movement of professional, semi-skilled and unskilled labour. The General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS) seeks to progressively liberalise trade in services via different modes of supply, including the movement of natural persons. Under the first round of GATS negotiations, member countries have made sectoral and cross-sectoral commitments to promote trade in services for these different modes of supply. This paper discusses the significance of and various constraints to the movement of natural persons in service trade. It also assesses the nature of liberalisation that has occurred in this mode of supply under GATS and notes the limited progress made in this regard. In view of the ongoing round of GATS negotiations, it suggests ways to stregthen the overall GATS framework through greater transparency and specificity in the commitments on movement of natural persons and through the introduction of various multilateral disciplines.     

Trade policymaking in Uruguay: Recent trends and challenges ahead

This paper reviews the main recent trends in trade and trade policy in Uruguay. At first sight, between 2012 and 2018 no major changes are noticed in trade and trade policy in the country. Trade lost importance as share of national GDP, exports concentrated in primary sectors, and tariffs remained unchanged. However, some advances are noted. Trade in services increased substantially, export markets diversified, and the country participated actively in multilateral negotiations. As part of MERCOSUR, the country has just signed two potentially liberalising agreements, and the bloc’s internal agenda is also being modernized. At the national level, the country has undergone a series of reforms to modernise its customs procedures and facilitate trade. Some challenges lie ahead. MERCOSUR needs to consolidate the recent liberalising trend, and needs to work on its internal agenda, to liberalise interregional trade, remove non-tariff barriers and harmonise special regimes for imports. Uruguay, for its part, needs to continue with its domestic reforms to consolidate trade facilitation, to reduce duties and charges to trade, and to attract foreign investment.     

The new framework for global trade in services – all about GATS

This article is concerned with the globalization of services, and specifically the impact of the new regulatory framework set up under the 1996 General Agreement on Trade in Services. The article sets out the organisation and protocols of GATS and their likely impact on global trade in services. The paper clarifies the role of GATS as not merely to ‘regulate’ trade in services, but to foster the global expansion in services under a fair, transparent set of rules, with procedures for recourse by those governments and enterprises which claim to have been unfairly discriminated against in one or other service sector. The article concludes with some interim comments on the impact and effectiveness of GATS on the business community, and the need for further research in the future.     

Liberalising the Movement of Natural Persons: A Lost Decade?

Liberalisation of international trade in services through the Movement of Natural Persons (Mode 4) remains one of the least negotiated issues of trade policy among the 144 members of the World Trade Organisation. Economists believe that there is a basic convergence of economic interest between the developed and the developing world for liberalising Mode 4. Yet the multilateral trading system has not facilitated greater worker mobility between the labour‐surplus and labour‐scarce countries. Is there any economic logic as to why cross‐border movements of workers have not followed the pattern predicted by international trade theory? Or are there strong socio‐political barriers that have come in the way of liberalising Mode 4? These are some of the questions the paper attempts to answer. The paper shows that the economic arguments against the free movement of natural persons are based on the narrow perspective of the welfare of domestic workers while ignoring the benefit it brings to the economy as a whole. Further, non‐economic arguments miss the point that the movement of workers under Mode 4 of GATS is temporary in nature, and so unlikely to have any lasting social and cultural spillovers. The paper gives specific illustrations from the recent past where temporary import of workers from labour‐surplus countries has enabled both developed and developing countries sustain their economic growth. It concludes by arguing that the environment for renegotiating WTO commitments under this important sector of international trade in services is better than ever before, even though the current world economic slowdown may delay actual negotiations for a while.     

中国与欧盟农产品产业内贸易实证分析

基于产业内贸易理论,采用格鲁贝尔—洛伊德指数、布吕哈特边际产业内贸易指数、汤姆&麦克杜威尔水平和垂直产业内贸易指数,本文综合评估了1996年以来中国与欧盟15国农产品产业内贸易水平及结构特征。实证分析结果显示:中国与欧盟整体农产品产业内贸易水平较高,且以技术差异为特征的垂直型产业内贸易为主;双方四大类农产品产业内贸易水平呈上升趋势。     

建立中国和澳大利亚自由贸易区的经济影响分析及政策建议

加入世贸组织后,中国逐渐重视双边自由贸易协定的积极作用,继中国-东盟(“10+1”)自由贸易区之后,中国和澳大利亚的自由贸易协定正在协商之中。本文目的是研究中国和澳大利亚建立自由贸易区后对中澳两国和其他国家的经济影响。本文采用全球贸易分析模型,对自由化方案作了分析,研究结果表明:中澳两国间存在明显的经济互补性,建立自由贸易区将改进两国和世界总福利,澳大利亚的农业和工业都将受益,农业部门所得利益大于工业部门,中国所得利益全部来自劳动力密集型的工业部门,而农业部门会受到一定的冲击。最后,基于模拟分析结果,提出应对措施和政策建议。     

The Implications of WTO and GATS for the Banking Sector in Africa

In this paper we assess the implications of the World Trade Organisation (WTO) and the General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS) for the banking sector in African signatory countries. With emphasis on the free trade element, we first review the relevant provisions of the GATS for banking services and the main exemptions held by African countries. We then analyse the main efficiency indicators for a sample of the top banks in 18 African economies for the period 1997‐1998. We also use univariate statistics to analyse the dispersion of the key bank pricing and liquidity indicators in these economies for the period 1994‐1998. The main findings imply that although full liberalization, implicit in the WTO and GATS protocols, will lead to a substantial shake‐up of the African banking industry. However, provided they have an appropriate regulatory framework and allow sufficient lead time, most African countries have little to fear from liberalization at least in terms of the continuing existence of a locally owned banking industry; and indeed, these countries could reasonably expect to be able to restructure and compete, at the very least in African‐wide or regional markets.     

欧盟《一般数据保护条例》对国际服务贸易规则的影响

为了保护隐私权,欧盟制定了《一般数据保护条例》(GDPR),保护个人数据和规范数据跨境流动是其两大目标。为了符合GDPR的要求,非欧盟企业客观上只有两种选择:要么撤出欧盟市场,要么将数据本地化,否则将面临巨额罚款。实际上,数据本地化构成了贸易壁垒,违反了《国际服务贸易总协定》第16和17条。为了促进数字贸易,以《全面与进步跨太平洋伙伴关系协定》(CPTPP)、《欧盟日本经济伙伴关系协定》(EPA)和《美墨加协定》(USMCA)为代表的新型区域贸易协定禁止数据中心本地化设置。为此,欧盟应设法消除任何数据本地化要求的可能性,同时应设法完善GDPR下的充分性决定机制。GDPR客观上对国际服务贸易规则产生了深远而广泛的影响。为了因应国际服务贸易规则的新发展,中国应引导与推动《服务贸易总协定》(GATS)的改进,加速构建促进个人信息保护、数据有序流动和保护公共利益相协调的新型数字贸易规则;借鉴欧盟与美国缔结的《隐私盾协议》,与欧盟开展有关数据跨境流动的双边协议谈判。     

服务贸易政策的成本估计:基于STRI的关税等价

文章利用OECD的服务贸易限制指数(STRI)和亚洲开发银行多区域投入产出表,运用Anderson和Van Wincoop (2003)引力模型分析框架和泊松伪极大似然(PPML)估计技术,研究了服务贸易政策对服务总值贸易和增加值贸易的影响效应,并评估了政策壁垒的关税等价。研究发现,进口国服务贸易政策对服务总值进口以及内涵的国内增加值和国外增加值均有显著抑制作用,且对国外增加值的进口抑制作用更大。对于不同行业,服务贸易政策的经济成本存在显著差异,服务贸易政策促进了电信服务和航空运输服务的跨境贸易,但是对其他行业跨境贸易有显著抑制作用,2018年关税等价介于2.4%～249.8%之间。     

WTO《服务贸易总协定》下报复机制之实证研究

WTO成立以来,共有三起争端涉及GATS项下的报复问题。成员对服务业实施报复的能力、GATS规则解释上的不确定性、GATS四种服务提供模式的结构、服务贸易与外国直接投资的交叉等,使报复的实际进行非常复杂。为有效实施GATS项下的报复,发展中成员必须兼顾报复之经济影响与政治影响:经济影响只是一个方面,必须重视制造政治影响,选择曝光率高且具有政治影响力的服务部门进行报复,促使发达成员执行WTO争端裁决。     

An explicit partial‐equilibrium model to justify the Generalized Marshall‐Lerner condition (GML)

Robinson's derivation of the Marshall‐Lerner condition (ML) is more general in that she considers a situation where initially the trade balance is not in equilibrium with the incorporation of the supply curves of exporters. This paper examines a partial equilibrium analysis of a country's imports and exports markets within a theoretical model which considers both the demand and supply sides in these two internationally traded‐goods markets. The aim here is to show explicitly how the Generalized Marshall‐Lerner condition (GML) of Robinson can be obtained. We examined the two effects of the nominal depreciation of the domestic currency on the trade balance: the volume effect and the value effect and how they counterbalance each other. We found that the standard Marshall‐Lerner condition (ML) was not sufficient when the trade balance was initially in deficit and it was also not necessary if the trade balance showed an initial surplus. Moreover, this study provides a new interpretation for Robinson’ sufficiency condition where the trade balance must improve following a nominal depreciation of domestic currency when the elasticity of foreign demand exceeds the ratio of imports to exports. This paper also examines the situation of a small open economy which could not influence the world prices where the foreign demand for exports and the foreign supply of exports are infinitely large. Finally, there is a discussion on two policy implications for exchange rate regulation: the amount of devaluation that is necessary to improve a given trade imbalance as a governments intervention and additional support for the slow improvement of the trade balance in the short run after a devaluation policy known as the J‐Curve effect.     

Trade in tourism services: Explaining tourism trade and the impact of the general agreement on trade in services on the gains from trade

The article addresses two questions related with tourism as a service trade. Can tourism be explained as other export activities? Does service liberalisation have a positive or negative impact on tourism receipts in destination countries? Previous research has either focused on the demand side factors (i.e. factors of demand in the origin countries) or on tourism as a long-run factor of economic growth. The research shows that a complementary perspective such as that offered by trade in a supply side perspective can render additional insights towards understanding tourism. This approach can explain why countries have absolute and comparative advantage. Another finding is that tourism as an export can be explained by some of the same destination factors that explain other service exports. Using different panel estimators the importance of supply side factors that are to some extent exclusive to tourism are demonstrated: the general price competitiveness of the destination, tourism infrastructure and the provision of safety. The econometric models also confirm the relevance of other conventional explanatory factors of trade in services such as GDP per capita and internet usage. The last part of the article analyses the welfare gains from trade under the general agreement on trade in services (GATS). The revenue (tourism receipt) effect is decomposed into a volume (arrival) and price effect. Results suggest that liberalisers under the GATS gained especially from a volume effect with average higher growth rates in the number of arrivals. There is also found to be a positive effect on the average income earned per tourist from being a liberaliser.