城镇专业市场形成的供需机制分析

在分析本地专业市场的地理意义及其对供需的空间聚集能力的基础上,由生产带动和消费带动两种模式入手对本地专业市场的供需互动形成机制进行探讨.通过分析行业平均价格指导下的供需曲线变化,寻求对本地专业市场形成机制的解答,并以国内相关城镇的专业市场实例进行印证,得出在不同模式下本地专业市场的形成条件.结论显示,城镇专业市场是在本地与外地的供给与需求互动过程中有条件地形成的.     

Local economic risk factors and the primary and secondary mortgage markets

This paper presents a cross-sectional analysis of the spatial distribution of loans in the primary and secondary mortgage markets. Aggregating loan originations to the MSA level, we examine the proportion of the market served by FHA and conventional lenders. We model the geographic differences in market shares as a function of supply, demand, and economic risk factors. Results indicate that FHA market shares are higher in cities with higher economic risk characteristics. To examine the role of GSE activity, we model the spatial distribution of the disposition of conventional loans. Again, we focus on the impact of local economic risk factors on the proportion of loans purchased by the GSEs, purchased by other financial institutions, or retained by the originating lender. Our results indicate that GSEs purchase rates are fairly insensitive to local economic conditions indicating that they serve the primary market with little spatial variation.     

House price synchronization across the US states: The role of structural oil shocks

This paper analyzes the impact of disentangled oil shocks on the synchronization in housing price movements across all the US states plus DC. Using a Bayesian dynamic factor model, the house price movements are decomposed into national, regional, and state-specific factors. We then study the impact of oil-specific supply and demand, inventory accumulation, and global demand shocks on the national factor using linear and nonlinear local projection methods. The impulse response analyses suggest that oil-specific supply and consumption demand shocks are most important in driving the national factor. Moreover, as observed from the regime-specific local projection model, these two shocks are found to have a relatively stronger impact in a bearish rather than a bullish national housing market. Our results have important policy implications.     

Supply chain decisions and coordination in the presence of an imperfect spot market

This study considers a supply chain consisting of a commodity supplier and a final product manufacturer with uncertain demand. In addition to purchasing from the supplier through a forward contract, the manufacturer can adjust their inventory by trading the commodity in an online spot market after observing the actual demand. However, the spot market is imperfect in that transactions cannot be certainly realized and come with additional transaction costs. Furthermore, the spot price is volatile such that overly relying on the spot market is unwise. To investigate how the spot market affects the decisions and coordination in a supply chain, we develop a game-theoretical model incorporating spot trading. We derive the optimal ordering decision in a centralized supply chain, as well as the supplier's and manufacturer's equilibrium pricing and ordering decisions in a decentralized supply chain. The impact of the imperfect spot market on the optimal decisions and profits is analyzed. This study also demonstrates how the supply chain can be coordinated in the presence of an imperfect spot market. Finally, a numerical analysis is performed to examine the analytical results. Our results indicate that the spot market can generally improve the performance of the centralized supply chain and benefit the manufacturer in the decentralized one. However, it can be detrimental to the supplier. The supply chain can be coordinated by a revenue-sharing contract, and both parties' profits can be improved. Our findings suggest that the manufacturer could take advantage of the spot market, and the supplier should attempt to integrate or coordinate the supply chain to share the benefits of spot trading.     

Locally stable price mechanisms

This paper develops necessary conditions for a price adjustment mechanism to achieve local stability at regular competitive equilibria. Two principal questions are: how closely must a locally stable mechanism be tailored to particular excess demand functions, and can any such mechanism be interpreted as a market adjustment process. In response to the first question, a variant of the (local) Newton method, termed the ‘orthogonal Newton method’ is shown to require, in a dimensional sense, the minimal information about excess demand functions. The second question is answered in the negative by proving the non-existence of any locally stable mechanism with the property that the price of any given commodity is not changed when its own market is in equilibrium. These and other results are obtained by using convergent price paths to generate a homotopy between the adjustment dictated by the mechanism and the actual direction of the equilibrium.     

THE BUS INDUSTRY IN DANGER

After seeking to placate the local government lobby while retaining the benefits of private enterprise, the Labour government's policy for bus services is slipping into a dangerous compromise which will neglect the market while seizing assets from commercial operators. Behind this lies a policy leading to the return of bus services to public ownership.     

Demand and supply estimation biases due to omission of durability

We build a dynamic equilibrium model of a durable goods oligopoly with a competitive secondary market to evaluate the bias in estimating the structural parameters of demand and supply when durability is omitted. We simulate data from our dynamic model and use them to estimate the model’s static counterpart. We find that the static estimate of the elasticity of demand is an overestimate of the true elasticity and that the static estimate of the markup is an underestimate. Our results provide a benchmark on the magnitude and sign of the bias when static models are used for economic inference.     

Credit vs. demand constraints: The determinants of US firm-level investment over the business cycles from 1977 to 2011

The paper studies empirically how relative supply and demand conditions on the capital market affected US firm-level investment over the business cycles from 1977 to 2011. A dynamic econometric specification of capital accumulation including sales growth, Tobin's q, the cash flow-capital ratio and the cost of capital as covariates is fitted by a rolling window System GMM estimator using quarterly data on publicly traded US corporations in order to obtain time-varying coefficients. We find that the investment effects of the variables capturing the demand-side of the capital market, i.e. sales growth and Tobin's q, behave counter-cyclically, whereas this does not hold for the investment effects of supply-side variables such as cash flow or the cost of capital. Our results suggest that investment was typically driven by adverse demand rather than supply conditions on the capital market during the most severe recessions.     

The determinants of homebuilder stock price exposure to lumber: Production cost versus housing demand

We study the economic linkage between homebuilder stock market performance and commodity futures market information on a major component of building materials—lumber. The price of lumber plays a dual role in determining homebuilder profits: it represents a production input cost and serves as a future housing demand indicator. Using all US publicly listed homebuilder stocks, we show that the housing demand effect dominates the builder–lumber relationship. This effect is robust even after we control for the Federal Housing Finance Association (FHFA) housing price index (HPI). Our results further indicate that the slope of the lumber futures curve serves as a cross-market signal of future housing demand and thus of homebuilder stock market performance.     

Private demands for public capital: evidence from school bond referenda

This paper develops a framework for estimating demand for school infrastructure investment that is financed through local bond referenda. Our framework takes explicit account of the irregular and discrete nature of local capital investment and the objective functions of local school boards. Our empirical model consists of a three-equation system composed of a proposed spending equation, a vote equation, and a selection equation. Estimated income and price elasticities of demand for school infrastructure are similar to those found in studies of current school spending. We also find that school boards act like risk-averse, budget-maximizing agenda-setters.     

城市公共服务的价值估计、受益者分析和融资模式探讨

城市生活质量决定城市价值.城市政府所提供的各类公共服务,直接影响着居民在城市中生活的舒适和便利程度,关系到城市长期发展的动力.围绕此主旨,论文探讨了3个相关的问题.第一,如何估计城市公共服务这些非市场的价值;第二,这些城市公共服务的成本承担和利益享受是否匹配;第三,怎样的公共口融资模式能够使上述关系更为匹配.基于显示性偏好法中的特征价格模型,利用北京市住宅市场和土地市场的徽观和个体交易数据,实证结果表明,居民愿意为居住在地铁站、公交车站和公署周边一定范围(0.8公里)内分别支付住宅价格的17.1%、12.4%和6.4%,但是,这种价值并没有被资本化到土地价格中.这表明,居民对城市公共服务偏好的住处并没有被房地产开发企业以地价的形式传递给政府,开发企业成为实际的受益者.以房地产价值作为税基的物业税的征收使信息可以从居民直接传递至城市政府,将使城市公共服务的融资模式更为合理.     

Monthly rent with variable deposit: A new form of rental contract in Korea

In this paper, we describe the structure of the monthly-rent-with-variable-deposit (MRVD) contract, a distinct type of rental contract in Korea. We demonstrate that the Chonsei contract is one variant of the MRVD contract. To explain the MRVD contract, we propose a leverage-effect-seeking hypothesis. Based on this hypothesis, we are able to elucidate a variety of rental market conditions in Korea. Our hypothesis is consistent with the simultaneous existence of several types of rental contracts and various combinations of monthly rent, as well as the up-front deposit in the MRVD contracts. We also focused on the deposit-to-monthly-rent conversion rate, a critical factor in the Korean rental housing market. Our hypothesis indicates that conversion rates vary across local markets depending on local market conditions, such as the expected house price appreciation rate. The results of our data analysis demonstrate that our hypothesis more adequately explains the observed trend in the conversion rate, as well as that in the MRVD contracts.     

Public transit bus procurement: The role of energy prices,regulation and federal subsidies

The U.S. public transit system represents a multi-billion dollar industry that provides essential transit services to millions of urban residents. We study the market for new transit buses that features a set of non-profit transit agencies purchasing buses primarily from a few domestic bus makers. In contrast with private passenger vehicles, the fuel economy of public buses has not improved during the last thirty years and is irresponsive to fuel price changes. To understand these findings, we build a model of bus fleet management decisions of public transit agencies that yields testable hypotheses. Our empirical analysis of bus fleet turnover and capital investment highlights the role of energy prices, environmental regulations, and the “Buy America” mandate associated with receiving federal funding to purchase public transit buses.     

Housing as a Means of Sustainable Economic Recovery in Southeast Asia

This paper addresses the economic crisis in Southeast Asia as it effects the housing sector there. Our basic argument is that the lower end of the formal housing market sector (worker housing) provides the best opportunity to restore productive employment activity while addressing basic housing needs. We call for a range of policy measures to support this outcome, based in part on the recent experience in Japan with declining real estate markets. The policies include limited subsidies, guarantees and insurance for housing loans, along with a downward indexing of housing loans, strategic infrastructure investment and promotion of local building materials. These measures are necessary under the current circumstances of deficient aggregate demand. The key is to target demand increments where they are most likely to meet the basic need for shelter while generating productive market-based activity.     

楼巴与城市机动性探析——以广州碧桂园凤凰城为例

广州是中国房地产最早开始市场化和民营化的地方。随着广州城市各空间的拓展以及居住新城的出现,产生了大量的通勤交通的需求。在城市公共交通网络体系未成熟之时,楼巴这种由开发商运营的服务成为居民出行主要的交通方式。     

A TIME SERIES ANALYSIS OF ANNUAL PASSENGER DEMAND FOR THE STATE RAILWAY OF THAILAND

This paper presents a time series regression model to estimate annual passenger demand for the State Railway of Thailand (SRT). The model was developed for a time period of 15 years (1974–1988), incorporating such variables as the country's gross domestic product (GDP), SRT passenger fares, competing intercity bus fares, and a dummy variable of the Fifth National Five Year Plan advocating a railway-favored modal shift policy. This simple but useful model analysis estimated the demand elasticities as: 0.907 with respect to real GDP; -0.970 with respect to real SRT fare; and 0.808 with respect to real bus fare. Remarkable manufacturing-oriented economic development of Thailand in recent years played an important part in recent SRT demand increases. As the relatively high own and cross fare elasticity estimates imply, the SRT is concerned about demand loss to competing intercity bus services, and has thus been keeping fare levels low. The model analysis also estimated a demand gain of 12.3% due to the modal shift policy during the Fifth Plan period, suggesting effectiveness of the policy.     

Property taxation and the demand for housing: An econometric analysis

There is disagreement among economists regarding the effect of a local increase in property taxation on the housing market. In defining the price of housing services studies of the demand for housing have treated the property tax exclusively as an excise tax on housing consumption. Two recent theoretical developments suggest this is a misrepresentation of the tax. One theory holds that the excise effects of property taxation may be shifted backward to the factors employed in the production of housing. The other theory concludes that the property tax is not an excise, but rather serves as an efficient price for local public services. To investigate these hypotheses, data from the Annual Housing Survey were employed to estimate a housing demand model which included the net effective property tax rate among the set of independent variables. In addition to revealing the property tax-housing demand relationship, the model provides more reliable estimates of income and price elasticities by eliminating specification errors found in previous studies. Results indicate that the property tax reduces the housing consumption of central city homeowners, but does not distort the suburban housing market.     

我国客车企业拓展海外市场的路径与对策

在国内客车市场竞争日趋激烈,利润空间大幅压缩的背景下,探讨我国客车企业的优势及问题所在,在此基础上提出我国客车企业拓展海外市场的路径与策略。     

How should a local regime-switching model be calibrated?

Local regime-switching models are a natural consequence of combining the concept of a local volatility model with that of a regime-switching model. However, even though Elliott et al. (2015) have derived a Dupire formula for a local regime-switching model, its calibration still remains a challenge, primarily due to the fact that the derived volatility function for each state involves all the state price variables whereas only one market price is available for model calibration, and a direct implementation of Elliott et al.’s formula may not yield stable results. In this paper, a closed system for option pricing and data extraction under the classical regime-switching model is proposed with a special approach, splitting one market price into two “market-implied state prices”. The success of our approach hinges on the recovery of the two local volatility functions being transformed into an optimal control problem, which is solved through the Tikhonov regularization. In addition, an efficient algorithm is proposed to obtain the optimal solution by iteration. Our numerical experiments show that different shapes of local volatility functions can be accurately and stably recovered with the newly-proposed algorithm, and this algorithm also works quite well with real market data.     

电动物流车的整车控制器设计

随着电商行业的蓬勃发展,电动物流车在市场上需求越来越广泛。而整车控制器是电动物流车的指挥协调控制中心,论文以K60芯片作为控制器的核心,设计了其传感信号输入模块、CAN通信模块、输出驱动模块等硬件电路。控制器主要采集驾驶员操作等信号,与电机控制系统、蓄电池管理系统进行通信,使车辆按驾驶员的意图行驶,达到整车控制行驶的目的。最后利用信号发生器、以及外部输入模拟信号,模拟电动物流车整车控制器的输入,对所设计的各个电路和软件进行调试。实验结果表明整车控制器工作正常,满足电动物流车基本行驶控制功能。