A note on the aggregation of slack and shortage in centrally planned economies

This note attempts to identify the key methodological problems that remain unsolved in the controversy about the aggregation of slack and shortage in disequilibrium econometric models of centrally planned economies (CPEs). The procedure of smoothing by aggregation implemented by Burkett (1988) is critically reviewed and found wanting, despite possible attribution to Kornai (1980) for justification. We argue that the procedure neglects the problems of resource immobility and hoarding that have prevailed in CPEs. Even from a neo-Keynesian perspective, it is at odds with a rigorous microeconomics of rationing that takes into full account the substitution and income effects of spillovers. One important issue is that saving may actually be reduced because of a tightening of the ration. These considerations throw serious doubt on the validity of the smooth trade-off between slack and shortage that forms the basis for econometric estimation and lead to concern that the Walrasian configuration cannot be identified from the estimation results.I wish to thank Michael Artis, Paul Madden, Bernard Walters and two anonymous referees for useful comments, suggestions and criticisms. The issues reviewed in this note are admittedly controversial and I am solely responsible for all interpretations, opinions and errors.     

Modelling wages in centrally planned economies: The case of Poland

The main idea developed in this paper is that rising excess demand for the labour force results in higher growth of wages over the notional rate of growth. The rationale is that employees change their jobs searching for higher wages, and employers are willing to offer higher pay in order to get additional workers. This relationship is highly nonlinear, and can be regarded as an extension of the idea known as the Phillips curve to the area of negative rate of unemployment. Additionally, one can observe that if the disequilibrium intensity in the labour market is small, its changes cause stronger reactions of wages in strategic branches than in the remaining sectors of the economy. It is similar to the situation of excess demand for labour. If there is a high rate of unemployment, reductions of wages affect more branches of secondary importance for the economy. The empirical investigation is based on Polish data covering the time period from 1964 through 1984. As excess demand for labour is unobservable, a proxy is used as an indicator of disequilibrium. It is introduced to the equation explaining the rate of growth of average wages, in addition to the rate of productivity growth of labour and the rate of inflation. Estimates are derived for 10 industry branches and sectors of the economy. The results confirm the initial hypothesis.     

Taut plans, repressed inflation and the supply of effort in centrally planned economies

Conclusions In this paper we have developed a macroeconomic model of a centrally planned economy. In such an economy the use of taut plants to elicit greater supplies of effort from the work force is hampered by the inflationary pressures unleashed by the plan. Consequently the planners cannot, in general, optimize both the supply of effort and the supply of labour but rather must trade off one against the other.Planners may be able to alleviate inflationary pressures if they can impose wage discipline on enterprises or if they are willing to reduce investment. Both of these policies, however, have costs attached to them. Severe credit rationing designed to prevent upward wage drift may in fact reduce the output of enterprises by creating financial bottlenecks. Moreover, while upward wage drift does cause repressed inflation it may also be a way of moving workers from less efficient firms to more efficient ones and thus be useful in an allocational sense. Reductions in the volume of investment also represent a cost to planners since higher current output can be obtained only by sacrificing future output.We have also shown that the key mechanism driving our model, the link between disequilibrium in the market for consumer goods either at the micro-level or in the aggregate does exist. In our sample of East European countries there is a significant inverse relationship between deviations from the normal level of savings and deviations from the trend rate of growth of labour productivity, reflecting, we believe, fluctuations in the supply of effort by households.We are indebted to Zdenek Drabek, Michael Keren, Janos Kornai and J. Michael Montias for helpful comments. We also appreciate comments from the participants in the Ninth International Conference Models and Forecasts '85, Bratislava, Czechoslovakia, as well as from anonymous referees. Any errors and all opinions are, of course, entirely our responsibility.The research underlying this paper was supported by National Science Foundation Grant INT76-21084 and by funding from the National Council for Soviet and East European Research.     

Informal pressures, mobilization, and campaigns in the management of centrally planned economies

Summary Following a short presentation of the striking deficiencies of plan instructions and financial regulation — the formal means of control of today's socialist centrally planned economies — we state that in actual fact these are not the basic means of control in these systems.The basic means of control is mobilization. Historically, this method originated from the declared unity of society. People — first of all economic managers — have to identify themselves with the objectives declared by the authorities. Moreover, the deficiencies of the formal means of control perpetuate the basic task assigned to mobilization.Campaigns are a specific kind of mobilization, meant for the implementation of new national economic objectives or tasks that have become newly important. Although mobilization facilitates the functioning of the economic system, we also have to underline two kinds of its negative consequences. First, mobilization oversimplifies the economic problems, tasks which in reality are tremedously complex. To be sure, some tasks can be implemented with its help, but certainly at high costs. Second, the never-ending repetition of the prevailing (campaign) slogans and the fact that they cannot be really contradicted weakens the capacity of central planners to forecast the future.This paper — the basic idea of which had already been present in Soós (1985) — was written while the author was visiting the European University Institute in April 1986, within the Research Project on East-West Trade and Financial Relations, directed by Professor D. M. Nuti. The paper was presented to the seminar of the working group on Comparative Economic Systems on 17 April 1986. The author wishes to thank Professor Paul Marer for his editorial help in preparing this final version.     

Uncertainty, the structure of production and the pattern of trade of centrally planned economies

Conclusions In this paper we have demonstrated that terms of trade uncertainty imposes a welfare loss on a centrally planned economy by reallocating resources toward the production of import substitutes and domestic consumption of exportables and a consequent decrease in the volume of trade. We have also shown that the centrally planned economies have developed a number of institutions, such as trade agreements and pricing rules, designed to minimize the losses caused by terms of trade uncertainty. Finally, we have suggested that the behavior of these economies during the post-Warperiod is consistent with welfare maximization under terms of trade uncertainty.I am indebted to Edward A. Hewett and Paul N. Rappoport for their assistance and comments at various stages of my work on this paper. Any errors and all opinions are entirely my responsibility.     

The specification of multi-market disequilibrium econometric models

The specifications of multi-market disequilibrium econometric models are clouded with different notions of effective demand. This paper points out that the specification of such models for econometric analysis can be achieved from the basic concept of fixed-price equilibrium and without the use of the concepts of effective demand. The specifications of Ito and Gourieroux, Laffont and Monfort are justified within this framework. With proper stochastic elements introduced in the system, the derived likelihood function from our approach does not involve multiple integrals and is computationally tractable for models with many disequilibrium markets.     

Estimation of econometric models of some discrete games

This paper discusses, estimates and compares some microeconometric models for simultaneous discrete endogenous variables. The models are based on the assumption that observed endogenous variables represent the outcome of a static discrete game. I discuss models based on non-cooperative equilibrium concepts (Nash, Stackelberg), as well as models which presume Pareto optimality of observed outcomes. The models are estimated using data on the joint labor force participation decisions of husbands and wives in a sample of Dutch households.     

Tourism forecasting: accuracy of alternative econometric models

This study evaluates the forecasting accuracy of six alternative econometric models in the context of the demand for international tourism in Denmark. These econometric models are special cases of a general autoregressive distributed lag specification. In addition, the forecasting accuracy of two univariate time series models is evaluated for benchmark comparison purposes. The forecasting competition is based on annual data on inbound tourism to Denmark. Individual models are estimated for each of the six major origin countries over the period 1969–93 and forecasting performance is assessed using data for the period 1994–97. Rankings of these forecasting models over different time horizons are established based on mean absolute percentage error and root mean square percentage error.     

The econometric analysis of models with risk terms

In this paper we have attempted to provide an integrated approach to the estimation of models with risk terms. It was argued that there exist orthogonality conditions between variables in the information set and higher-order moments of the unanticipated variable density. These could be exploited to provide consistent estimators of the parameters associated with the risk term. Specifically, it was recommended that an IV estimator should be applied, with instruments constructed from the information set. Four existing methods commonly used to estimate models with risk terms are examined, and applications of the techniques are made to the estimation of the risk term in the $US/$C exchange market, and the effects of price uncertainty upon production.     

Exchange rate volatility in high inflation economies: An econometric study of Poland and Brazil

This paper analyses exchange rate series for Poland and Brazil. The Polish series, related to the period soon after the first liberalizing measures, presents a high volatility which is not accounted for by some selected fundamentals. The Brazilian series, though also keeping evidence of excessive volatility, is cointegrated with fundamentals similar to those of the Polish case. This raises the issue of a learning process taking place during persistent inflations. Unsuccessful one-shot stabilization plans can reinforce this process, leaving a lasting imprint in the excessive volatility pattern. The message seems clear, though maybe not easy to implement: agents take some time to learn to live in non-stable environments; to avoid this by one-shot measures — if unsuccessful — can have a very high cost and pre-empt future corrections.     

z-Transform and identification of linear econometric models with autocorrelated errors

The paper consists of two main parts. In the first part we derive the solution of systems of linear stochastic difference equations by means of thez-transform. In the second part thisz-transform is used to treat the problem of identification of linear econometric systems (the term econometric is used to stress the special aspects of the identification problem dealt with in econometrics). It is shown, that under suitable restrictions observationally equivalent structures are related by unimodular matrices. Using this result, we state (rank-) conditions which ensure, that the unimodular matrices are constant, such that the classical econometric identification theorems can be applied. These conditions are given for stationary errors in the general case as well as in the MA, AR and ARMA case.     

Exchange rates, tax-subsidy schemes, and the revenue from foreign trade in a centrally planned economy

Conclusions It has been argued that while in the traditional analysis of the classic CPE the exchange rate has only an accounting function, inappropriate methods of national income accounting can lead to changes in the exchange rate generating changes in the real economy, provided that trade in unbalanced in foreign currency prices. This thesis was explored by examining the way the profits from foreign trade were calculated by the Ministry of Foreign Trade, and then transferred to the state budget. It was shown that the correct measure of the state's increased command over domestic resources from engaging in foreign trade, derived from the implicit taxes on that sector, was the ministry's profits on its domestic operations, the first term in (2). However, evidence was presented which suggested that its profits on foreign currency account measured in domestic currency, the second term in (2), were also passed over to the state budget. This implies that transferred profits from foreign trade will overstate the underlying command over resources when there is a balance of payments surplus, and understate them when there is a deficit. The consequence of this is that the domestic economy faces a series of erratic, though small, inflationary and deflationary impulses, regardless of changes in the exchange rate.The theoretical role of the preisausleich system was explored in some detail and it was argued that, although the system has been designed to insulate the domestic economy from external disturbances, there were clear reasons why it had come to play a major part in revenue raising. Specifically, it is administratively convenient to tax resources at their point of entry into or exit from the economy; the taxation of foreign trade widens the tax base and reduces the visibility of the tax system. But, of course, this grafting onto the preisausgleich of a second major function of revenue raising does lead to the development of a further channel through which external disturbances can pass into the domestic economy. That is external disturbances impact on the domestic economy not only through the production and welfare effects of changing exports and imports, and through whatever tenuous links are allowed between foreign and domestic prices, but also insofar as those disturbances affect the ministry's profits from foreign trade. In short, foreign economic disturbances show up in variations in the position of the non-inflationary government budget constraint. To that extent the second function of the preisausgleich impairs its ability to perform its original insulation function. In a minor way, the successful non-inflationary performance of the insulation function has always required adjustments in the government budget constraint. But the growth in the importance of foreign trade taxation has magnified the importance of this phenomenon, and led to a trade-off between the two functions.University of Bath. Initial research for this paper was carried out under ESRC grant HRP 7417/1.