Immigration,Ethnic Diversity,and Political Outcomes: Evidence from Denmark

I study the impact of immigration and increasing ethnic diversity on political outcomes in immigrant‐receiving countries, focusing on immigration and election outcomes in Danish municipalities between 1981 and 2001. A novel instrumental variable strategy based on historical housing stock data addresses issues of endogenous location choices of immigrants and a rich set of control variables is employed to isolate ethnic diversity effects from those of other immigrant characteristics. Increases in local ethnic diversity lead to rightward shifts in election outcomes by shifting electoral support away from traditional “big government” left‐wing parties and towards anti‐immigrant nationalist parties. This holds for both local and national elections.     

The politics of pollution: party regimes and air quality in Canada

Abstract. Environmental concerns often figure prominently in opinion polls. But do election outcomes actually affect the environment? I test the influence of the party in power on urban air pollution in 13 Canadian cities. The government's political stripe is not reliably associated with positive or negative effects on air pollution. Provincial parties on both the right and the left are associated with elevated levels of some air contaminants. Federal effects also go in contrasting directions. Overall it appears a change in government is unlikely to be a reliable predictor of changes in air pollution. JEL classification: Q51, Q58, D78     

WHY DOES A TWO-PARTY SYSTEM EXIST?: A NEW ECONOMIC EXPLANATION*

The purpose of this paper is to present a new economic explanation for why a multiple-party system can endogenously arise as a result of the electoral process. The traditional view on the electoral process (i.e., the median voter theorem) is that political parties that pursue policies in the interest of the median voter are led to a convergence of policies. However, this view cannot explain why either conservative or liberal parties win election in many democratic countries. In order to explain this paradox, the following model considers an economy with three types of parties: conservative, middle, and liberal parties. In the model, the policy of each party is assumed to be time-consistent, so that the policy of the middle party generally leads to suboptimal outcomes for the majority voters. Thus, the “rational” majority voters try to elect the political party whose objective is biased. As a result, the electoral process may lead to a two-party system where both conservative and liberal parties have a chance to win election.     

The pro-competitive effect of campaign limits in non-majoritarian elections

We study a model of elections in non-majoritarian systems that captures the link between competition in policies and competition in campaign spending. We argue that the overall competitiveness of the political arena depends on both the endogenous number of parties contesting the election and the endogenous level of campaign spending. These two dimensions are linked together through their combined effect on the total equilibrium level of political rents. We illustrate the key insights of the model with an analysis of the competitive effects of campaign spending limits. We show that under some conditions spending caps can be pro-competitive, leading to an increase in the number of parties contesting the elections.     

Election systems,the “beauty premium” in politics,and the beauty of dissent

We ask three questions. First, do election systems differ in how they translate physical attractiveness of candidates into electoral success? Second, do political parties strategically exploit the “beauty premium” when deciding on which candidates to nominate, and, third, do elected MPs use their beauty premium to reap some independence from their party? Using the German election system that combines first-past-the-post election with party-list proportional representation, our results show that plurality elections provide more scope for translating physical attractiveness into electoral success than proportional representation. Whether political parties strategically use the beauty premium to optimize their electoral objectives is less clear. Physically attractive MPs, however, allow themselves to dissent more often, i.e. they vote more often against the party line than their less attractive peers.     

Rainy day politics. An instrumental variables approach to the effect of parties on political outcomes

Scholars have grappled with the question of how parties affect policy. Here I propose and test an instrumental variable approach using rainfall. In Norwegian municipal elections, potential left wing voters are likely to abstain from voting with election day rain, whereas the opposite holds for right-wingers. Then rainfall provides an exogenous source of variation, and hence an instrument, for the party composition of the municipal council. A strengthening of the right wing parties due to rainfall shifts expenditures toward education, but reduces total spending. This also shows that political competition does not drive party platforms to converge.     

Reciprocity and voting

In this paper we present a two-period model where a left-wing and a right-wing political party are solely interested in the policies they pursue. We assume that voters display reciprocal behavior. By contrast, political parties are not motivated by reciprocity. We show that reciprocity may have dramatic consequences for models of voting behavior. The incentive to be kind to the median voter may ensure that a position closer to the median voter's position is adopted even if political parties are not directly interested in being elected and cannot commit to a political stance during an election campaign. Moreover, reciprocity increases incumbency advantages.     

Existence and Uniqueness of Nash Equilibrium in Electoral Competition Games: The Hybrid Case

This paper analyzes the traditional unidimensional, two‐party electoral competition game when parties have mixed motivations, in the sense that they are interested in winning the election, but also in the policy implemented after the contest. In spite of having discontinuous payoffs, this game, referred to as the hybrid election game, is shown to be payoff secure and reciprocally upper semi‐continuous. Conditional payoffs, however, are not quasi‐concave. Hence, the existence of a pure strategy Nash equilibrium (psne ) is ensured only if parties have homogenous interests in power. In that case, an equilibrium not only exists, but it is also unique. Instead, if parties have heterogeneous motivations, depending upon the relationship between the electoral uncertainty, the aggregate opportunism, and its distribution across parties, a psne may or may not exist. The mixed extension, however, is always better reply secure. Therefore, a mixed strategy Nash equilibrium does indeed exist.     

Reciprocity and voting

In this paper we present a two-period model where a left-wing and a right-wing political party are solely interested in the policies they pursue. We assume that voters display reciprocal behavior. By contrast, political parties are not motivated by reciprocity. We show that reciprocity may have dramatic consequences for models of voting behavior. The incentive to be kind to the median voter may ensure that a position closer to the median voter's position is adopted even if political parties are not directly interested in being elected and cannot commit to a political stance during an election campaign. Moreover, reciprocity increases incumbency advantages.     

Voting in small networks with cross-pressure

We present a model of participation in elections in small networks, in which citizens suffer from cross-pressures if voting against the alternative preferred by some of their social contacts. We analyze how the existence of cross-pressures may shape voting decisions, and so, political outcomes; and how parties may exploit this effect to their interest. We characterize the strong perfect equilibria of the game and show that, in equilibrium, the social network determines which party wins the election. We also show that to dispose of the citizens better connected in the network with the other faction is not a guarantee to win the election.      

Xenophobia and the Size of the Public Sector in France: A Politico-economic Analysis

Anti-immigrant feeling (xenophobia) among voters was a key factor in the second-place victory of Jean Le Pen's National Front Party in the 2002 French national election. Here, we study the effect of anti-immigrant sentiment on the equilibrium position of political parties on the economic issue, which we take to be the size of the public sector. We model political competition among three parties (Left, Right, and Extreme Right) on a two-dimensional policy space (public sector size, immigration issue) using the PUNE model. We calibrate the model to French data for the election years 1988 and 2002, and show that politics have changed significantly over this period, from being centered primarily on economic issues, to non-economic issues such as immigration and security/law-and-order. We estimate that in 2002, the effect of voter xenophobia was to reduce the voters' choice of public-sector size between 11% and 28% of one standard deviation of the population's distribution of public-sector size ideal points, from what it would have been, absent xenophobia.     

Lobby Groups and the Financial Support of Election Campaigns

We study a model of competition between two political parties with policy compromise. There is a special interest group with well-defined preferences on political issues. Voters are of two kinds: impressionable and knowledgeable. The impressionable voters are influenced by the election campaigns. The objective of the parties is to obtain the maximum votes. Parties compete for financial support from a given interest group. Each party proposes a platform in exchange for an amount of campaign funds, and the interest group decides whether to accept or reject each of these proposals. We show that parties' competition resembles, to a certain extent, Bertrand competition. Furthermore, in equilibrium only one party gets funds from the interest group. This result differs from the one obtained in a similar model by Grossman and Helpman in which, in equilibrium, both parties are financed by the interest group. This difference arises because Grossman and Helpman assume that it is the interest group who makes the proposals to the political parties.     

Shaping the beliefs of the majority. Pluralism and competition in mass information

This paper analyses a market where two sources of information sell reports to a population of readers. Sources care about the outcome of a two-party election where the readers vote according to the information received. The paper discusses whether or not pluralism matters as regards the truthfulness of information disclosures at an equilibrium, and whether we should expect the majority of the population to be less well informed than the minority. Given the definition adopted in the paper, pluralism is found to matter only to a limited extent: the minority source provides better information than the majority source, independently of whether they share or not the same political goals. On the other hand, the pattern with a well informed élite and a less informed majority turns out to be an equilibrium outcome when political choices are made exclusively by the winning party. The paper also compares the previous case with the one where political choices are influenced by both parties, to an extent which depends in a continuous way on their shares in the population. (JEL: L82, Z1, D72)     

POLITICAL PARTIES AND GOVERNMENT BEHAVIOUR

The paper attempts to explain and identify differences in party political behaviour in office, in terms of the weight they attach to unemployment and inflation. Reasons are advanced to suggest that incumbents do not take-up the median voter position, but instead pursue differentiated policies (i.e. make choices) which are both consistent with their known ideology (preferences) and with maximizing their share of the vote at the next election. The model is fitted with UK data, and the results are encouraging, providing some support for the notion that parties pursue politically-motivated policies throughout their term of office and not just in the run-up to elections.     

Will democracy engender equality?

Summary. Many suppose that democracy is an ethos which requires, inter alia, a degree of economic equality among citizens. In contrast, we conceive of democracy as ruthless electoral competition between groups of citizens with different interests, who are organized into parties. We inquire whether such competition, which we assume to be concerned with distributive matters, will engender economic equality in the long run. Society is modeled as OLG, and each generation competes politically over educational finance and tax policy; the policy space is infinite dimensional. A political equilibrium concept is proposed which determines the membership of two parties endogenously, and their proposed policies in political competition. One party wins the election (stochastically). This process determines the evolution of the distribution of human capital. We show that, whether the limit distribution of human capital is an equal one depends upon the nature of intra-party bargaining and the degree of inequality in the original distribution.Received: 3 December 2002, Revised: 6 February 2004, JEL Classification Numbers: D72, H2.This article reports on a longer project, to be published as Democracy, Education, and Equality (Cambridge University Press). Here, I motivate the problem, explain one of the models, and state one of the principal results. Proofs of theorems are omitted, but will be available in the aforementioned monograph. Many individuals have provided valuable comments and help on this project, including Ignacio Ortuño-Ortin, Herbert Scarf, Roger E. Howe, Karine Van der Straeten, John Geanokoplos, and Colin Stewart. I also acknowledge the useful comments of an anonymous referee for this journal. A preliminary version of this work was delivered as the Graz-Schumpeter Lectures at the University of Graz in May 2003, and I am grateful to the Graz Schumpeter Society for their hospitality and comments.The general topic of this article has been, I believe, of keen interest to Birgit Grodal, a dear friend and staunch supporter of my unconventional work in economic theory since I embarked upon that path in the late 1970s. I will always be deeply grateful for her friendship, support and encouragement, and I am honored to contribute this paper to her festschrift.     

Deeds or words? The local influence of anti-immigrant parties on foreigners’ flows

We investigate the influence of anti-immigrant parties on foreigners' location choices. Considering Italian municipal elections from 2000 to 2018, we create a comprehensive database that includes a classification of the anti-/pro-immigration axis of leading political parties based on specialists' assessments. Adopting a bias-corrected regression discontinuity design, we find that the election of a mayor supported by an anti-immigrant coalition significantly affects immigrants' location choices only when considering the most recent years. This finding is not driven by the enactment of policies against immigrants but by an ‘inhospitality effect’, which has become stronger over time due to the exacerbation of political propaganda. Therefore, foreigners' flows are influenced by the local political environment only when immigration is central to the political debate.     

Tactical Redistribution Between Regions When Parties and Voters Care About Ideology

In this paper, redistributive transfers between regions are examined in a political economy model where both parties and voters are led by selfish as well as ideological motives, the latter taking the form of egalitarian objectives. Parties announce election platforms about how to distribute funds between regions and different income types, and voters react to these platforms when casting their vote. It is found that regional transfers are completely tactical; it is the political power of a region that decides if it will be a receiver or a contributor. Ideological goals are reached by redistributive transfers between different income types.     

Australia Demonstrates the Rise of Populism is About More than Economics

Votes for established centre‐right and centre‐left political parties are falling across the developed world. Australia is not immune from this trend: in the 2016 federal election, more people voted for minor parties than at any point since the Second World War. Australia is an interesting case study for the rest of the world on the origins of populist support. Political scientists have struggled to separate the effects of cultural shifts and poor economic outcomes (low wages and rising inequality) in many countries because these shifts have occurred simultaneously. However, in Australia the economy was relatively healthy during the period of rising minor party support. Our analysis suggests that falling trust in government and a backlash against the pace of social change explain much of the collapse in support for the political mainstream.     

Power sharing and electoral equilibrium

This paper considers a model of (consensual) democracy where political parties engage first in electoral competition, and they share policy-making power afterward according with the votes gathered in the election. The paper uncovers the difficulties to guarantee stability in this institutional setting; and it provides a condition of symmetry on parties’ political motivations that ensures the existence of pure strategy equilibrium under a broad family of power sharing rules, ranging from fully proportional to winner-take-all. The equilibrium analysis shows that power sharing and ideology exert a centrifugal force on policy platforms that increases party polarization, with the paradoxical result that consensual democracies can actually lead to more radical electoral campaigns than winner-take-all.     

DOES CULTURE AFFECT ELECTORAL OUTCOMES? EVIDENCE FROM TRANSITION COUNTRIES

Why do some societies fail to adopt “good” economic institutions? Recent literature points to the role of complementarities between social norms and proposed formal rules in advancing institutional change. To shed light on one potential mechanism, we track election performance of executive parties in up to 18 post‐communist democracies over 1991–2015 to test whether cultural attitudes influenced voters' response to market reform. We show that in more individualistic cultures, reform is associated with greater reward for the incumbent in the next election. The implication is that in democracies, voters select policies and institutions that are in line with prevailing culture. (JEL O17, P35, Z1)