Siting noxious facilities: A siting lottery with victim compensation

This paper proposes a scheme to facilitate the siting of noxious facilities. A regional government announces that it will (a) use a lottery to choose a site for a noxious facility and (b) transfer income from tenants to host-city landowners to at least partly offset the effects of the noxious facility on local property values. The government will hold the lottery only if all citizens agree, in advance, to abide by the resulting siting decision. The lottery approach is superior to the conventional approach to siting (advance notification) in the sense that the lottery approach achieves unanimous support for the siting decision with less compensation. The compensation scheme can be financed with a regionwide tenant tax or a tax on residents in the nonhost city. For “small” compensation programs, the nonhost tax is superior to the regional tax.     

Is econometrics useful for private policy making? A case study of replacement policy at an auto rental company

The goal of this paper is to illustrate the potential usefulness of econometrics as a tool to assist private policy makers. We provide a case study and detailed econometric analysis of the automobile replacement policy adopted by a large car rental company. Unlike public policy making–where the benefits from using econometric models and “science-based” approaches to policy making are hard to quantify because the outcomes of interest are typically subjective quantities such as “social welfare”–in the case of firms there is an objective, easily quantifiable criterion for judging whether policy A is better than policy B: profits. We introduce and estimate an econometric model of the rental histories of individual cars in the company’s fleet. Via stochastic simulations, we show that the model provides a good approximation to the company’s actual operations. In particular, the econometric model is able to reproduce the extraordinarily high rates of return that the company obtains on its rental cars, with average internal rates of return between purchase and sale of approximately 50%. However, the econometric model can simulate outcomes under a range of counterfactual vehicle replacement policies. We use the econometric model to simulate the profitability of an alternative replacement policy under pessimistic assumptions about the rate maintenance costs would increase and rental rates would have to be decreased if the company were to keep its rental cars longer than it does under the status quo. Depending on the vehicle type, we find that the company’s expected discounted profits would be between 6% to over 140% higher under the suggested alternative operating strategy where vehicles are kept longer and rental rates of older vehicles are discounted to induce customers to rent them. The company found this analysis to be sufficiently convincing that it undertook an experiment to verify the predictions of the econometric model.     

Tax Policy Coordination, Vertical Externalities, and Optimal Taxation in a System of Hierarchical Governments

Tax policies of two levels of government (state and federal) with overlapping tax bases are considered. This overlap leads to “vertical” fiscal externalities are considered when several different commodities are in the tax base and the tax bases of the two levels of government may not be identical. When the governments share a tax base, the mix of combined taxes is optimal. With different tax bases, combined taxes are no longer optimal as federal tax rates are adjusted to reflect state public service levels. When grants are available, a welfare-maximizing mix of taxes and public services is obtained.     

Residential choice and the local public sector: An alternative test of the “Tiebout Hypothesis”

This paper provides an empirical test of the hypothesis, commonly referred to as the “Tiebout Hypothesis,” that locally provided public services and the level of local taxes influences residential choice decisions of households. This hypothesis has previously been tested by looking at the capitalization of fiscal factors into housing prices. This study analyzes the determinants of residential choice by looking at household moving data. The results provide support for the Tiebout hypothesis, even in cases when no capitalization is expected. Support was developed for the hypothesis that at any point of time significant fiscal disequilibrium exists for residents of some communities, resulting in a reduction of the efficiency properties of the Tiebout mechanism.     

公租房小区的特征及治理

公租房小区有三个特征:一是租房者和买房者的混居;二是政府在公租房小区有着相当比重的经济利益;三是居民都是社会的收入中下阶层。公租房小区要避免变成贫民窟,其关键之一是中下阶层的居民能够也愿意参与到小区的治理中来。在此基础上,公租房小区的治理应该强调以小区居民代表为主体组成小区管理委员会,居民代表由居民大会选举产生,买房者的投票权高于租房者,政府代表拥有一定比例的投票权。     

Measuring the consequences of promoting inner city homeownership

This paper examines low- and moderate-income households in the City of Philadelphia who are becoming homeowners for the first time. We examine two Nehemiah developments subsidized by the City of Philadelphia that offer newly constructed homes at well-below cost. This paper uses a unique survey of these new owners to measure what Nehemiah residents gain in terms of structure and community attributes as they make the transition from renting to owning. The new owners in the Nehemiah complexes significantly improve their housing structures while raising their exposure to crime and weak local public schools. As part of the City’s community development strategy, these developments were expected to increase economic activity near these sites. We document that there is no evidence of local benefit spillovers for census tracts where the Nehemiah developments were built. Our survey results suggest that the new housing developments represent an “oasis” where there are few interactions between the new homeowners and the incumbent residents of the greater community.     

Tiebout choice and residential segregation by race in US metropolitan areas, 1980–2000

This article examines the link between local government fragmentation, or “Tiebout choice,” and segregation between black and white residents. As suggested by Tiebout [Tiebout, C., 1956. A pure theory of local public expenditures. Journal of Political Economy 64, 416–424.], fragmented local governance structures may encourage households to vote with their feet and sort into communities based on their willingness to pay for local public services. This outcome has been well documented. The nuance explored here is that, if the demand for local public services varies by race or if households have preferences for neighbors with specific racial characteristics, local government fragmentation may foster an increase in residential segregation by race across neighborhoods and jurisdictions. Results from metropolitan-level regressions suggest that increased Tiebout choice is associated with increases in black–white residential segregation within US metropolitan areas. Comparable results are obtained from household-level estimates, where the black racial composition of a household's census tract of residence is regressed on household-level controls and racially stratified measures of Tiebout choice. Results from both approaches suggest that a 10% increase in Tiebout choice would increase neighborhood segregation by no more than 1%, while segregation across jurisdictions would increase by between 4% and 7%.     

Zoning and the exercise of monopoly power: A reevaluation

One reason for excessive zoning restrictions is said to be the desire of existing residents to raise the value of their homes. This strategy will be more successful if their community controls a large fraction of the land in a metropolitan area. This study critically examines this “monopoly zoning” hypothesis in a property rights framework. A re-examination of current empirical evidence for monopoly zoning and an additional study cast some doubt on the existence of such motivations.     

INSTITUTIONALISED JUSTIFICATION OF CORPORATE ACTION: INTERNATIONALISATION AND THE EU IN CORPORATE REPORTS

This paper provides an institutional analysis of the way a set of Finnish firms have used the concept of internationalisation and the EU in justifying major strategic decisions. They have used internationalisation, and in particular the then new possibility of Finland joining the EU, as an argument in support of radical change. An analysis of their annual reports reveals a number of institutional arguments which are strong because they are generally accepted, a priori, as being important not only to firms but indeed to Finland as a whole. In using institutional arguments firms are aligning their own interests with those of the country, and in so doing are able to justify radical changes in most parts of their own organisations. We are not claiming that Finnish firms should not react to the challenges which EU represents. Rather, we suggest that by using institutional arguments they are borrowing legitimacy from a wider public. The arguments used are typically very broad, invoking very general visions of the role of Finland in the EU. We call these arguments “easy rides” because, even if they are only partially explicated, it is generally assumed that they will become accepted without questioning by public and employees alike. Certain specific patterns of “easy rides” can be distinguished: i) The mobilisation of a “national mission”, ii) “Sacrifice now, reap the benefit later”, and iii) “Bigger is better”. The paper concludes with a methodological discussion about the difficulty of distinguishing between the technical/functional and the institutional arguments.     

Shifts in autonomy, responsibility and control from centre to periphery in public administration: the case of the ministry of finance in Italy

In tackling administrative reform and in the hope of improving the effective allocation of resources, most European governments have shown a growing interest in adopting private sector management models in the public administration. The assumption underlying this paper is that the decisive variables in the different national contexts have to do with the relationships between the central and the peripheral administrative levels, and the way in which administrative actors at the two levels interpret their roles and participate in the reform process. The paper examines the case of the reform of the Italian Ministry of Finance. In seeking to improve its performance and the services it provides, the ministry reform is intended to introduce a management system in which the key concepts are the planning, programming and control of administrative action and results. According to reform rhetoric, shaping a new class of administrative managers at the local level is the crux of the question. However, research results hint that the “creation” of this new local executive staff is yet to be completed. The working hypothesis advanced is that this is due to local executives’ lack of confidence in the “system”, inasmuch as the reform process has so far been characterised by a tendency to give them responsibility without autonomy and autonomy without control. The greater their lack of trust, the lesser their willingness to risk the consequences of failure and the greater their tendency to stick to defensive positions and to return to previous “bureaucratic” conceptions and ways of operating.     

Management by decree. Paradoxes in the reform of the Italian public sector

A call for “better” governance of the public sphere informed by reliance on management and accounting expertise has recently arisen in connection with a variety of legislative initiatives enacted in Italy. This paper looks at the nature and role of this “reform”, and in particular the call for the introduction of managerial accounting. It is argued that far from facilitating a comprehensive introduction of managerial vocabulary and knowledge into the public domain, the Italian legislative mechanism tends to hamper the expression of management and accounting as technically autonomous and coherent systems, while at the same time allowing more established audiences to deliberate on their nature and role. Although the reform was devised in terms of introducing the economic and the measurable into the domains of bureaucracy and formal compliance, its legal articulation seems to be informed by the very logic and ethos it is called upon to change.     

The financing of small firm product innovation within the UK

This paper investigates the funding environment facing product innovating small manufacturing firms and both supports and contradicts a number of “stylised facts” which have emerged over the last decade. Amongst the key findings it appears that, whilst innovators were no more nor less likely to have sought external funds, they were significantly less likely to have successfully accessed bank finance. This finding is of particular gravity since bank debt remains the primary source of external finance employed. Further, the paper notes the low use of genuine risk capital to fund product innovation and raises the question as to what extent this reflects supply or demand side deficiencies. The role of public subsidies, in the form of grant funding, is also investigated with some tentative evidence pointing to the role grants play in validating technology or as leverage to access further funds.     

Decentralized Welfare: Will There Be Underprovision?

This paper develops an Asymmetric Nash Equilibrium model of welfare provision by states when the benefit payment is a local public good and a fixed population of welfare recipients distributes itself between states with logistic “migration” function. The model shows that state size is an important demand shifter across states because it alters the supply elasticity of recipients. The model provides estimates of how the degree of benefit under provision varies with this migration elasticity. Other demand instruments (such as taxpayer resources and “generosity”) likewise generate positive correlation between benefits and recipients, while supply shifters generate negative correlation between benefits and recipients. The model's predictions are closely matched empirically, when examining the reduced form impact of these instruments on the pattern of welfare benefits and recipients across states. Using these impacts to assign the instruments to either supply or demand sides of the model, it is possible to estimate the model's structural elasticities. These turn out to be high enough so that simulated solutions to the model generate considerable welfare underprovision and thus raise concern about a race to the bottom with decentralized control over AFDC.     

Fear of crime and housing prices: Household reactions to sex offender registries

Megan's Law requires public dissemination of information from sex offender registries. Opponents to this controversial law have questioned whether households misinterpret or even use this information. One concern was that the information might simply induce a “fear of crime.” This study finds evidence for both use and misinterpretation of the publicly available information on sex offenders. Using a unique dataset that tracks sex offenders in Hillsborough County, Florida, the results indicate that after a sex offender moves into a neighborhood, nearby housing prices fall by 2.3% ($3500 on average). However, once a sex offender moves out of a neighborhood, housing prices appear to immediately rebound. Surprisingly, these price impacts do not appear to differ in areas near high risk offenders labeled as “predators.”     

“Agreeing to disagree” type results: a decision-theoretic approach

This paper explores interactive epistemology within Morris’ [S. Morris, Alternative definitions of knowledge, in: M.O.L. Bacharach, L.-A. Gerard-Varet, P. Mongin, H.S. Shin (Eds.), Epistemic Logic and the Theory of Games and Decisions, Kluwer Academic Publishers, Amsterdam, 1997, pp. 217–233] framework of knowledge. Specifically, this paper proves a generalized “agreeing to disagree” result. The major features of this formalization are: (i) non-expected utility receives a unified treatment; (ii) the information structure is not necessarily partitional; (iii) Aumann’s celebrated result of “agreeing to disagree” and Milgrom and Stokey’s well-known result of “no trade” are derived as special cases. This paper also presents some new extensions of the “no trade theorem”.     

Diagnoses by general practitioners: Accuracy and reliability

Only 10% of the results of consultations in primary care can be assigned to a confirmed diagnosis, while 50% remain “symptoms” and 40% are classified as “named syndromes” (“picture of a disease”). Moreover, less than 20% of the most frequent diagnoses account for more than 80% of the results of consultations. This finding, confirmed empirically during the last fifty years, suggests a power law distribution, with critical consequences for diagnosis and decision making in primary care.Our results prove that primary care has a severe “black swan” element in the vast majority of consultations. Some critical cases involving “avoidable life-threatening dangerous developments” (ALDD) such as myocardial disturbance, brain bleeding, and appendicitis may be masked by those often vague symptoms of health disorders ranked in the 20% most frequent diagnoses. The Braun distribution predicts the frequency of health disorders on a phenomenological level and reveals the “black swan” problem, but is not a tool by itself for arriving at accurate diagnoses. To improve predictions and enhance the reliability of diagnoses we propose standards of documentation and a systematic manner by which the risk facing a patient with an uncertain diagnosis can be evaluated (diagnostic protocols).Accepting a power law distribution in primary care implies the following: (1) primary care should no longer be defined only by “low prevalence” properties, but also by its black-swan-incidence-problem. This includes rethinking malpractice and the requirements of malpractice litigations; (2) at the level of everyday practice, diagnostic protocols are tools to make diagnoses more reliable; (3) at the level of epidemiology, Braun’s system of classification is useful for generating valid information by which predictions of risks can be improved.     

Towards an holistic understanding of disruptions in Operations Management

The paper reviews the literature on maintenance management, integrates key dimensions of maintenance within a taxonomy of maintenance configurations, and explores the impact of differing configurations on contextual factors and operational performance. “Prevention”, “hard maintenance integration” and “soft maintenance integration” were identified as key maintenance variables. Data were collected from 253 Swedish manufacturing companies, and three distinct clusters were identified. “Proactive Maintainers” emphasized preventive maintenance policies. “IT Maintainers” relied on computerized and company-wide integrated information systems for maintenance. “Maintenance Laggers” emphasized all maintenance dimensions to lesser extent than the others. The importance of maintenance prevention and integration differ between contexts. There were subtle performance differences across identified configurations, but preventive and integrated maintenance were more important for companies seeking competitive process control and flexibility. There existed no group with any great emphasis on all three maintenance dimensions, but attaining truly high performance may require a rare mix of the three dimensions. This mix of variables could constitute a hypothesized “World Class Maintenance” group.     

Fiscal News, State Budget Rules, and Tax-Exempt Bond Yields

This paper investigates how state fiscal institutions such as balanced-budget rules and restrictions on state debt issuance mediate the bond market reaction to state fiscal news. We analyze data on the yields of bonds issued by different states, as reported in the “Chubb Relative Value Survey,” along with data on state budget forecasts for the period 1988–1998. We find that unexpected deficits are correlated with higher state bond yields. This effect is smaller for states with tight antideficit rules than for states without these fiscal rules. Unexpected deficits have a particularly large effect in raising bond yields of states with tax limits. These results suggest that bond market participants view fiscal institutions as relevant in assessing the risk characteristics of tax-exempt bonds and that the economic significance of these institutions depends on the state's economic and fiscal circumstances.     

Evaluating shifts in Japan's quality-of-life

This paper presents a Data Envelopment Analysis/Malmquist index (DEA/MI) analysis of the change in quality-of-life (QOL), which is defined as the state of a social system as measured by multiple social-indicators. Applying panel data from Japan's 47 prefectures for the period 1975–2002, we identify significant movement in the country's overall QOL using a “cumulative” frontier shift index. Results suggest that Japan's QOL rose during the so-called “bubble economy years” (second half of the 1980s), and then dropped in the succeeding “lost-decade” (1990s). We also identify those prefectures considered most “responsible” for the shift(s) in QOL. Moreover, the use of both upper- and lower-bound DEAs enabled an evaluation of both “good” and “bad” movements in QOL.     

Chaos and sector-specific externalities

Benhabib and Farmer [1996. Indeterminacy and sector specific externalities. Journal of Monetary Economics 37, 397–419] explore the possibility of local indeterminacy in a two-sector model with sector-specific externalities. They find that very small sector-specific externalities are sufficient for local indeterminacy. In this case, it is possible to construct sunspot equilibria where extrinsic uncertainty matters. In this paper, I provide a global analysis of their model revealing the existence of Euler equation branching. This branching allows for regime switching equilibria with cycles and chaotic behavior. These equilibria occur whether the “local dynamics” are determinate or indeterminate.