How Large is Congressional Dependence in Agriculture? Bayesian Inference about ‘Scale’ and ‘Scope’ in Measuring a Spatial Externality

The political economy literature on agriculture emphasises influence over political outcomes via lobbying conduits in general, political action committee contributions in particular, and the pervasive view that political preferences with respect to agricultural issues are inherently geographic. In this context, ‘interdependence’ in Congressional vote behaviour manifests itself in two dimensions. One dimension is the intensity by which neighbouring vote propensities influence one another, and the second is the geographic extent of voter influence. We estimate these facets of dependence using data on a Congressional vote on the 2001 Farm Bill using routine Markov chain Monte‐Carlo procedures and Bayesian model averaging, in particular. In so doing, we develop a novel procedure to examine both the reliability and the consequences of different model representations for measuring both the ‘scale’ and the ‘scope’ of spatial (geographic) co‐relations in voting behaviour.     

Does ‘Protection for Sale’ Apply to the US Food Industries?

This paper tests the Protection for Sale model in terms of the structure of protection and how realistic the estimated domestic welfare weight is relative to campaign contributions. Using data from US food manufacturing, empirical results support the key predictions for the structure of protection when either all food manufacturing industries or most of the general population is assumed to be politically organised. The domestic welfare weight is estimated as low as 0.837, the lowest econometric estimate to date, underlining that protection is for sale and that, with a qualified ‘yes’, the model fits the data for these industries.     

Deracializing Exploitation? ‘Black Economic Empowerment’ in the South African Wine Industry

This paper considers the discourse and practice of 'Black Economic Empowerment' (BEE) in the South African wine industry. It argues that far from representing a decisive break with an inequitable past, BEE allows the South African wine industry to avoid potentially more uncomfortable options to redress current and past race-based imbalances – such as land redistribution, import boycotts and better working conditions for grape pickers. An essentialist racial discourse, pivoting on ahistorical and dislocated notions of 'blackness', has been used to displace the transformation agenda away from addressing the conditions faced by workers, and to an ameliorism that allows a small cohort of black entrepreneurs to become the preferred beneficiaries of 'transformation' in the wine industry. The new terrain is characterized by branding, advertising and image building on the one side: and by codes of conduct, a sectoral BEE charter, scorecards and auditing on the other. These allow the standardization, legitimation and ostensible deracialization of exploitative labour and social relations in the South African wine industry.     

The End of a Romance? A Note on the Quantitative Impacts of a ‘Brexit’ from the EU

This study suggests UK equivalent variation (EV) gains of €8.9 billion on withdrawal from the EU budget. Factoring in associated trade facilitation costs from the loss of UK access to the single market, annual UK EV losses could be as high as €14.0 billion, with the EU‐28 facing a corresponding loss of €40.4 billion. Interestingly, the extrapolated UK gain arising from withdrawal from the ‘CAP’ component of the EU budget exceeds estimated lower and upper bound trade facilitation costs exclusively on EU agrofood trade. Accordingly, the UK should realistically remain as an EU member, although continue to lobby for reductions in the CAP budget.     

2018穿越寒冬 2019乍暖还寒

正在2019’CNCE棉业发展年会上,中国棉花信息网总经理贾蕾以"棉花供求形势分析与展望"为题,从历史回顾、本年度现状梳理、总结和展望四个方面,对棉花市场的供求情况进行了因素分析,并就企业对信息的分析和使用提出一些建议。一、回顾过去从历年我国棉花生产整体情况来看,面积减但单产增,近年总产相对稳定。2008年以来我国植棉面积趋减,近三年来稳定在5000万亩左右;近20年来全国单产增幅约80%,其中     

What’s next for the Renewable Energy Target – resolving Australia’s integration of energy and climate change policy?*

Australian climate change policy and its integration with Australia’s electricity markets have been fraught for at least two decades. The only enduring policy has been the Commonwealth Renewable Energy Target (RET). Despite the relative success of the RET in driving investment and reducing emissions, state governments have now pivoted towards contracts-for-difference (Cfds). In this article, we outline the issues associated with policy discontinuity and the large-scale RET and review its effectiveness as an emissions reduction tool and driver of electricity sector abatement. We find that the RET has been relatively successful across the key criteria of cost and emissions reductions and is a better policy instrument than contracts-for-difference, which are increasingly being adopted by state governments. Building on the work of Nelson et al. (2020), we propose a new approach, which would allow for continued use of Cfds but utilising the RET’s policy architecture.     

The Effects of Kenya's ‘Smarter’ Input Subsidy Programme on Smallholder Behaviour and Incomes: Do Different Quasi‐experimental Approaches Lead to the Same Conclusions?

Kenya joined the ranks of sub‐Saharan African (SSA) countries implementing targeted input subsidy programmes (ISPs) for inorganic fertiliser and improved seed in 2007 with the establishment of the National Accelerated Agricultural Inputs Access Programme (NAAIAP). Although several features of NAAIAP were ‘smarter’ than other ISPs in the region, some aspects were less ‘smart’. However, the efficacy of the programme, and the relationship between its design and effectiveness, have been little studied. This article uses nationwide survey data to estimate the effects of NAAIAP participation on Kenyan smallholders’ cropping patterns, incomes, and poverty status. Unlike most previous studies of ISPs, a range of panel data‐ and propensity score‐based methods are used to estimate the effects of NAAIAP. The article then compares these estimated effects across estimators and to the effects of other ISPs in SSA, and discusses the likely links between differences in programme designs and impacts. The results are robust to the choice of estimator and suggest that, despite substantial crowding out of commercial fertiliser demand, NAAIAP had sizeable impacts on maize production and poverty severity. NAAIAP's success in targeting resource‐poor farmers and implementation through vouchers redeemable at private agro‐dealer shops likely contributed to its more favorable impacts than those of ISPs in Malawi and Zambia.     

2018~2019年湖南部分农产品对比

整理2018~2019年部分农产品的平均价格数据,我们发现,受到非洲猪瘟疫情影响,畜禽产品价格涨幅比较大,猪肉平均价格上涨55%,同时带动了牛肉、鸡、鸭等肉类产品价格上涨;蛋类和水产品平均价格涨跌幅度不大,相对稳定。2019年全国虽然出现了大面积干旱现象,但是未影响到市场蔬菜供应,蔬菜市场平均价格有涨有跌。     

乡村振兴政策盘点（2018-2019年）

<正>12018年2月,中央1号文件《中共中央国务院关于实施乡村振兴战略的意见》发布,确定了实施乡村振兴战略的目标任务,到2050年,农业强、农村美、农民富将全面实现。22018年2月,中共中央办公厅、国务院办公厅印发了《农村人居环境整治三年行动方案》,旨在加快推进农村人居环境整治,进一步提升农村人居环境水平。     

农发行表彰2018～2019年度脱贫攻坚先进集体和先进个人

2020年1月20日,农发行在召开年度工作会议期间举行表彰仪式,隆重表彰荣获2018~2019年度“脱贫攻坚贡献奖”“脱贫攻坚奉献奖”的先进集体和先进个人。解学智董事长主持仪式,徐一丁副行长宣读表彰决定,总行行领导出席并为先进集体代表和先进个人颁发奖牌和证书。     

2018年土地科学研究重点进展评述及2019年展望

研究目的：总结2018年国内外土地科学研究的重点进展，展望2019年中国土地科学的发展趋势以及《中国土地科学》重点关注方向。研究方法：文献调研法。研究结果：（1）土地经济领域重点关注城乡土地价格与农地流转影响因素、土地市场化改革与政府行为、土地产权制度变迁与征地冲突等；（2）土地管理领域研究热点主要围绕自然资源管理体制改革、农村土地制度改革与土地法律完善、土地权籍与耕地保护管理等实践问题；（3）土地资源、利用与规划领域研究以探索土地资源资产负债表编制、重视土地生态状况评估、深化土地利用视角下的碳排放研究、创新土地利用模式、探讨国土空间规划体系构建及村级规划为热点；（4）土地工程与技术领域在农地综合整治、复垦技术革新、土地污染修复方法等方面研究逐渐深入，土地信息采集、处理技术不断完善。研究结论：2019年，《中国土地科学》将重点关注国家战略实施下的土地制度改革与土地利用转型、自然资源统一管理下的空间治理体系构建、生态文明建设背景下的土地资源系统科学、信息通讯技术驱动下的土地资源智能管控等研究问题及相关选题方向。     

Do input subsidy programs “crowd in” or “crowd out” commercial market development? Modeling fertilizer demand in a two‐channel marketing system

Many governments in developing countries distribute fertilizer at subsidized prices in an effort to stimulate small farmers' agricultural productivity and food security. Prior fertilizer demand studies have largely failed to account for the effects of government programs on farmers' commercial purchases. Using a double hurdle model and nationally representative rural household panel data in Zambia, we distinguish between these sources and measure the contemporaneous "crowding in" and "crowding out" effects of government input programs on commercial fertilizer sales. Where the private sector is relatively active and average wealth is higher (areas seemingly more likely to be targeted by government programs), results indicate that subsidies have substantially crowded out the private sector, in some cases to the point that such programs could actually lower overall fertilizer use. On the other hand, in poorer areas where the private sector is relatively inactive, subsidies help to generate demand and crowd in private sector retailers. Empirical studies explicitly modeling farmers' fertilizer purchase behavior within a dual marketing framework can provide important insights for agricultural policy discussions in developing countries.     

Does a “Blue Revolution” help the poor? Evidence from Bangladesh

The rapid growth in aquaculture production, globally and in Bangladesh is well documented. Over 2000–2010, per capita production of aquaculture grew 76%, while the consumer price of fish declined 45%. Previous studies have suggested pro‐poor effects of aquaculture based on fish production and consumption patterns. This study attempts to quantify the contribution of aquaculture to income growth and poverty reduction in Bangladesh, using household survey data and a microsimulation approach based on an expanded version of Deaton's concept of net benefit ratio. We estimate that aquaculture's contribution to income growth between 2000 and 2010 was 2.1%, including both price and quantity effects. This income growth was translated into poverty reduction of 1.7 percentage points. Although these estimates seem small, they represent almost 10% of the overall poverty reduction in Bangladesh during the first decade of the 21st century. Put differently, of the 18 million Bengalis who escaped poverty during 2000–2010, about 1.8 million of them managed to do so because of the rapid growth in aquaculture, which contributed to rural income while making fish more accessible to consumers.     

Payments for environmental services to promote “climate‐smart agriculture”? Potential and challenges

Payments for environmental services (PES) have gained wide popularity as approaches to promote environmentally friendly land use or agricultural production practices. Yet academics have also voiced concerns against seeing PES as a panacea. This article discusses whether PES is an appropriate and promising approach to promote so‐called “climate‐smart agriculture” (CSA) practices, which we define as agricultural production practices that contribute to CO₂ emission reductions and/or removals and provide benefits to farmers via increased productivity and profits and reduced vulnerability to climate change. PES appears most promising for the promotion of CSA practices in small‐scale farming contexts with low incomes. Effective design, however, requires solid estimates of cost and benefit flows from CSA adoption over time, accounting for differences in socioeconomic and ecological conditions, and addressing the risk of leakage. Funding for such PES will likely have to come from public sources, and seems most promising where synergies with other objectives such as agricultural development, food security, and climate adaptation or other environmental services exist. The potential of alternative approaches for CSA support such as taxation with rebates for CSA practices, CSA‐related investment support such as microcredits, and hybrid approaches such as conditional microcredit should be further investigated.