Do Regional Trade Agreements Increase Members' Agricultural Trade?

The gravity model is used extensively to investigate the trade flow effects of Regional Trade Agreements (RTAs). A notable feature common to previous research is the use of aggregate trade data. These studies typically report conflicting, and even negative results of the effect of RTAs on members' trade. Using recent developments in the gravity equation suggested by Baier and Bergstrand (2007) and Anderson and van Wincoop (2003) , this article demonstrates that RTA effects on members' trade depend fundamentally on whether the analysis focuses on agricultural or nonagricultural sectors, on the particular agreement analyzed, and on the length of the phase-in period that characterizes almost all RTAs.     

Bilateral Import Protection,Free Trade Agreements,and Other Factors Influencing Trade Flows in Agriculture and Clothing

Many factors shape the global network of bilateral trade including fundamental forces of supply and demand factors and government policies. This study uses the generalised gravity framework to distinguish among the different drivers that either deter or aid partner trade in land‐intensive agriculture and labour‐intensive clothing. The dataset used in the analysis includes bilateral trade among 70 countries in 1995, 2000 and 2005. Collectively, the 70 countries account for 85% of the world’s trade in agriculture and 96% of its GDP. Empirical results lend support to the Heckscher–Ohlin explanation of trade, namely that relative factor endowments motivate cross‐border trade. Results also show that tariffs are not always binding and bilateral free‐trade agreements more often divert rather than create trade.     

欧盟共同农业政策的最新改革举措

在共同农业政策实施以来的 40多年时间里 ,欧盟共同农业政策几经修改 ,以适应日益变化的政治和经济环境。在其初期 ,该政策主要关注食物的供给 ,以及帮助农民提高劳动生产率。目前 ,共同农业政策扩展到政策的许多领域 ,反映了在社会中农业所起的重要作用。除了帮助欧盟管理农业市场外 ,共同农业政策也触及了其他政策领域 ,如环境问题、区域性发展和农村发展 ,以及消费者问题。共同农业政策是在欧共体层次上最早决定的政策之一。目前 ,它给农民和工业提供了没有国际贸易壁垒的成熟的农产品销售市场 ,经营者可在这个市场上公平竞争。一、欧盟…     

Assessing CAP Reform: Sensitivity of Modelling Decoupled Policies

The European Union reformed farm policy in June 2003 towards the decoupling of farm income support instruments. Available impact studies find that this reform reduces production incentives substantially for beef and to a lesser extent for arable crops. However, these studies assume that the previous reform, under Agenda 2000, already decoupled arable crop direct payments to a considerable extent, while beef premiums were linked more closely to production. Our main objective in this paper is to test the sensitivity of these results to this questionable modelling of Agenda 2000 direct payments, which neglects eligibility rules and land market imperfections. Our analysis reveals that the effects of the reform on both arable crop and beef production are always negative, however the Agenda 2000 direct payments are modelled. On the other hand, we show that, when the eligibility rules and land market imperfections are acknowledged, the production reducing effects may be much larger for arable crops than for beef. Policy implications of these results are noted.     

Effects of Regional Trade Agreements on Trade in Agrifood Products: Evidence from Gravity Modeling Using Disaggregated Data

The recent proliferation of regional trade agreements (RTAs) has intensified the debate on their merits. This study contributes to this debate by analyzing trade creation and diversion effects of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) on trade in six important agrifood products. An extended gravity model is estimated using pooled data and generalized least squares methods. The result shows that the share of intraregional trade is growing within NAFTA and that NAFTA has displaced trade with the rest of the world. While NAFTA has served to boost trade among its members, it reduced the degree of openness to trade with nonmembers.     

Canadian Agricultural Programs and Paradigms:The Influence of International Trade Agreements and Domestic Factors

Tracing developments over the past two decades with respect to Canadian farm income support, orderly grain marketing, and supply management, this article argues that Canadian agricultural policy has undergone programmatic, but not paradigmatic policy change. International trade agreements, alongside domestic factors like budgetary pressures, have helped to promote programmatic change. However, paradigmatic change in the form of a rejection of the core ideas and instruments of the post Second World War state assistance paradigm has not yet occurred. The article discusses the conditions for paradigmatic change and argues that the state assistance paradigm is likely to prevail until influential decision makers becoming convinced of its failure and judge an alternate paradigm to be politically and economically viable. Un examen des changements survenus sur le plan du soutien du revenu agricole au cours des vingt dernières années, notamment la commercialisation des grains et la gestion de l'offre, indique que la politique agricole canadienne a subi des changements programmatiques et non paradigmatiques. Les accords de commerce internationaux, combinés à des facteurs intérieurs tels que les pressions budgétaires, ont contribuéà la promotion de changements programmatiques. Cependant, le changement paradigmatique sous la forme du rejet des idées et des instruments de base d'aide de l'État après la Seconde Guerre mondiale ne s'est pas encore produit. Le présent article traite des conditions préalables au changement paradigmatique et soutient que le paradigme de l'aide de l'État continuera probablement d'exister jusqu'à ce que des décideurs influents soient convaincus de son échec et estiment qu'un paradigme de rechange pourrait être politiquement et économiquement viable.     

The Impact of Regulations on Agricultural Trade: Evidence from the SPS and TBT Agreements

According to World Trade Organization rules, countries may adopt regulations under the Agreements on Sanitary and Phyto-Sanitary (SPS) and Technical Barriers to Trade (TBT). We analyze the structure of these measures in agricultural trade. The inventory approach suggests that European countries have among the lowest coverage ratios of all OECD countries. Using a gravity equation, we also estimate their stringency. Our results suggest that they significantly reduce developing countries' exports to OECD countries, but do not affect trade between OECD members. Furthermore, European imports are more negatively influenced by SPS and TBTs than imports of other OECD countries.     

CAP Reform in the Dairy Sector: Remove Export Subsidies and Retain Milk Quota

CAP Reform in the Dairy Sector: Remove Export Subsidies and Retain Milk Quota The reforms of the Common Agricultural Policy of June 2003 introduced major policy changes, In the dairy sector the aim is to decrease price distortions between the EU and world dairy markets through successive reductions in milk intervention prices. However, the milk quota system is still in place and successive increases in milk quotas are planned. The question is whether these dairy reforms are going in the right direction given the three main characteristics of the EU dairy sector. First the price inelasticity of both milk supply (due to quota) and domestic demand means that price distortion mainly affects the distribution of economic surplus between consumers and producers but does not generate significant net losses in economic welfare. Second, the ‘large country’ position of the EU on the world market means that the EU should remove all export subsidies, which will reduce EU exports and increase world prices. Third, the projected increase in EU aggregate demand for milk favours a reduction in all subsidies. The CAP is going in the right direction in the dairy sector. But to reduce price distortions all subsidies should be removed as soon as possible and the milk production quota should be retained. La réforme de la PAC laitiére: supprimer les subventions aux exportations et conserver les quotas La réforme de la PAC en juin 2003 est un changement majeur. En ce qui concerne le secteur laitier, l'idée consiste à diminuer les distorsions entre les prix européens et ceux du marché mondial par une série de réductions progressives du prix d'intervention. En même temps, le système des quotas reste en place et des accroissements progressifs sont envisageés pour les droits à produire. La question. est alors de savoir si une telle politique est bien orientée, compte tenu des trois caractéristiques principales du secteur laitier européen. En premier lieu, la faible élasticité-prix aussi bien de l'offre (à cause des quotas) que de la demande, implique que les distorsions, si elies affectent la répartition des bénéfices entre producteurs et consommateurs, ne génèrent pas de très grandes pertes sociales au niveau du bien-être global. Ensuite, l'importance de l'Union européenne sur les marchés mondiaux implique que l'UE doive réduire ses subventions à l'exportation, ce qui diminuera le volume des exportations et en fera remonter le prix, Enfin, l'accroissement prévisible de la demande globale européenne en produits laitiers devrait conduire G une réduction des subventions de toute sorte. La PAC est done sur la bonne voie en matière laitière. Mais pour réduire les distorsions, il faut le plus vite possible supprimer les subventions et conserver les quotas laitiers. Reform der GAP im Milchsektor: Abschaffung der Exportsubventionen und Beibehaltung der Milchquoten Die Reform der Gemeinsamen Agrarpolitik vom Juni 2003 führt zu erheblichen Politikänderungen. Im Milchsektor ist das Ziel, die Preisverzerrungen zwischen der EU und den Weltmärkten für Milchprodukte durch eine sukzessive Reduzierung der Milchinterventionspreise zu verringern. Das Milchquotensystem bleibt jedoch weiter bestehen und sukzessive Erhöhungen der Milchquoten sind geplant. Es ergibt sich die Frage, ob die Reform bei den vorhandenen drei Charakteristika im EU Milchsektor in die richtige Richtung geht. Erstens bedeuten das gegebene preisunelastische Angebot von Milch (wegen der Quotierung) und die Nachfrage im Inland, dass die Preisverzerrung sich vomehmlich auf die Verteilung der ökonomischen Rente zwischen Konsumenten und Produzenten auswirkt, nicht aber zu bedeutenden Wohlfahrtsverlusten führt. Zweitens fuhrt die Abschaffung aller Exporterstattungen für Milch und Milchprodukte dazu, dass die EU Exporte sinken und damit wegen der EU als relative großes Land die Weltmarktpreise für Milch steigen werden. Drittens begünstigt die vorausgesagte Zunahme in der aggregierten Milchnachfrage in der EU eine Reduzierung aller Subventionen. Die GAP entwickelt sich im Milchsektor in die richtige Richtung. Es sollten aber alle Subventionen so schnell wie möglich abgebaut und die Milchquote sollte aufrechterhalten werden, um Preisverzerrungen zu reduzieren.     

Trade Liberalization,Policy Reform and the U.S. Sugar Industry

This study examines the prospects for and potential impacts of liberalized international trade in sugar. It utilizes a state specific, cost of production based estimate of U.S. sugar supply to examine producer surplus under the current sugar policy regime and under a free trade scenario. It also evaluates the long-term viability of sugar production in individual states at free market prices.