Potential Underdog Bias,Overconfidence and Risk Propensity in Investor Decision-Making Behavior

Abstract

In this study we investigate whether investors are prone to take risks, both in terms of how they rate their risk propensity and their behavior in choosing between options with different risk levels, and whether they display overconfidence and underdog bias. We also investigate the relationships among underdog bias, overconfidence and risk propensity. The results indicate overconfidence levels similar to that in other populations and do not reveal underdog bias or high levels of risk propensity. We found support for a negative predictive relationship between underdog bias and overconfidence.     

Underperformance of Actively Managed Portfolios: Some Behavioral Insights

Abstract

Two glaring anomalies in investment management are apparent: (1) after fees, active portfolio managers do worse than market indices, and (2) clients continue to pay for services they don’t receive. The purpose of this paper is to offer explanations of these anomalies from a behavioral perspective. We explore some of the cognitive biases that perpetuate active management and subsequent underperformance, including herding, disposition, and endowment effects, as well as conservatism and status quo biases, overconfidence, and agency problems. Investors’ continued use of active managers despite persistent disappointing returns is attributed to being victims of framing effect, hot-hand fallacy, lack of knowledge as well as intimidation or insecurity, and status quo bias. We propose some ways that portfolio managers and investors could improve their decision making.     

Is there selection bias in laboratory experiments? The case of social and risk preferences

Laboratory experiments are frequently used to examine the nature of individuals’ social and risk preferences and inform economic theory. However, it is unknown whether the preferences of volunteer participants are representative of the population from which the participants are drawn, or whether they differ due to selection bias. To answer this question, we measured the preferences of 1,173 students in a classroom experiment using a trust game and a lottery choice task. Separately, we invited all students to participate in a laboratory experiment using common recruitment procedures. To evaluate whether there is selection bias, we compare the social and risk preferences of students who eventually participated in a laboratory experiment to those who did not, and find that they do not differ significantly. However, we also find that people who sent less in a trust game were more likely to participate in a laboratory experiment, and discuss possible explanations for this behavior.     

Numerosity: Forward and Reverse Stock Splits

Abstract

Individuals have a tendency to fixate on large numbers and ignore other relevant information in their decision making process. The numerosity heuristic, a cognitive bias, is the first behavioral hypothesis to explain why investors prefer to receive more shares (rather than less shares) in a stock split even though the aggregate economic value is the same. For forward splits, after controlling for the positive signaling of improved earnings growth and liquidity from the split announcement, the stock price reacts positively to the larger number of shares issued. More importantly, the use of a dual class numerosity model can explain why most conventional hypotheses fail to explain the negative stock price reaction to reverse splits. Given a typical bearish outlook associated with a reverse stock split, investors’ cognitive resources have already been conditioned to derive a systematic conclusion to sell the stock at the higher price. Focusing only on large stock price numerosity, investors are incorrectly inferring a higher investment value. As the high numerosity encourages bearish investors to sell at the higher perceived investment value, the stock returns react more negatively to the higher post-reverse split price level. In both forward and reverse split cases, investors react to high numerosity.     

On discretion versus commitment and the role of the direct exchange rate channel in a forward-looking open economy model

Abstract

This paper compares optimal monetary policy under discretion and commitment in an economy where the direct exchange rate channel is operative. The stabilization bias under discretion is shown to be weaker in an open economy relative to a closed economy. In an open economy, a ‘less conservative central banker’, one that attaches a smaller weight to the variance of inflation in the loss function, can be appointed to replicate the behaviour of real output that eventuates under commitment. Evaluating the social loss function under discretion and commitment, we find that the existence of a direct exchange rate channel in the Phillips Curve mitigates the pronounced differences between the two strategies in case of high persistence in the stochastic shocks.     

Effectiveness of sequences of classroom training for welfare recipients: what works best in West Germany?

Sequences of active labour market programmes (ALMPs) may be part of an intensified activation strategy targeting hard-to-place unemployed individuals. Such sequences are very common among welfare recipients in Germany, but most studies only evaluate either single ALMPs or unemployed individuals’ first ALMP. I analyse the effects of different sequences of classroom training for West German men and women on different labour market outcomes. Using rich administrative data and a dynamic causal model, I can control for dynamic selection problems that occur during a sequence. The results show that two classroom trainings are more effective than two periods of welfare receipt in helping welfare recipients find regular employment, especially among West German women. Moreover, immediately assigning individuals to classroom training is more effective than waiting and assigning them to classroom training in the second period. However, in some cases, avoiding participation in multiple programmes is preferable.

Abbreviations: ALMP, active labour market programme; CIA, Conditional Independence Assumption; CSR, Common Support Requirement; DATET, dynamic average treatment effect on the treated; IEB, Integrated Employment Biographies; IPW, inverse probability weighting; LHG, UBII-Receipt History (Leistungshistorik Grundsicherung); MSB, mean standardized absolute bias; SUTVA, Stable Unit Treatment Value Assumption; UBII, unemployment benefit II; UBI, unemployment benefit I; WDCIA, Weak Dynamic Conditional Independence Assumption     

Does Probability Weighting Drive Lottery Preferences?

Abstract

We propose a test of the theory of skewness preferences. The probability weighting feature that is the basis of their theory relies on investors overweighting the probability of extreme, positive returns. The resulting investor preferences for positive skewness in return distributions will lead to excess demand, contemporaneous price premiums, and negative expected returns. We use the well-documented 52-week high bias as a method to truncate investors’ weighted probability of expected right-tail events. We find evidence supporting the theoretical framework of Barberis and Huang as the negative return premiums associated with positive skewness is driven almost entirely by stocks that are farther away from the their 52-week high. No negative premiums related to skewness are detected when stock prices are close to the 52-week high.     

A discrete choice experiment to assess patients’ preferences for HIV treatment in the urban population in Colombia

Abstract

Aim: This study aimed to assess patients’ preferences for HIV treatment in an urban Colombian population.

Methods: A Discrete Choice Experiment (DCE) was conducted. Urban Colombian HIV patients were asked to repetitively choose between two hypothetical treatments that differ in regard to five attributes ‘effect on life expectancy’, ‘effect on physical activity’, ‘risk of moderate side effects, ‘accessibility to clinic’ and ‘economic cost to access controls’. Twelve choice sets were made using an efficient design. A Mixed Logit Panel Model was used for the analysis and subgroup analyses were performed according to age, gender, education level and sexual preference.

Results: A total of 224 HIV patients were included. All attributes were significant, indicating that there were differences between at least two levels of each attribute. Patients preferred to be able to perform all physical activity without difficulty, to have large positive effects on life expectancy, to travel less than 2?h, to have lower risk of side-effects and to have subsidized travel costs. The attributes ‘effect on physical activity’ and ‘effects on life expectancy’ were deemed the most important. Sub-analyses showed that higher educated patients placed more importance on the large positive effects of HIV treatment, and a more negative preference for subsidized travel cost (5% level).

Limitations: A potential limitation is selection bias as it is difficult to make a systematic urban/rural division of respondents. Additional, questionnaires were partly administered in the waiting rooms, which potentially led to some noise in the data.

Conclusions: Findings suggests that short-term efficacy (i.e. effect on physical activity) and long-term efficacy (i.e. effect on life expectancy) are the most important treatment characteristics for HIV urban patients in Colombia. Preference data could provide relevant information for clinical and policy decision-making to optimize HIV care.     

Another Graphical Proof of Arrow's Impossibility Theorem

Arrow's (1951) Impossibility Theorem is the idea that, given several well-known assumptions, the social orderings of particular alternatives that are meant to reflect individuals' preferences must match the preferences of an arbitrary individual (the dictator). A social-choice rule other than dictatorship is impossible. Following from Fountain (2000), the author presents another graphical proof of the theorem that is intended to be more accessible to students and teachers of economics. The principal strength of this approach is that the patterns of agreements and conflicts over all possible combinations of two individuals' rankings of alternatives are transparent; appreciating these patterns is the key to intuitively understanding Arrow's theorem. A self-test for readers (or a classroom exercise for students) is included.     

Gender and graduate economics education in the US

Abstract

This paper reports on the findings of a survey of top economics graduate schools as they relate to women and men. The results provide strong evidence that at these top graduate schools, women graduate students are less integrated in their economic disciplines than are male graduate students. In the second part of the paper, this paper relates those findings to alternative theories as to why this is the case. This paper concludes by suggesting that the emphasis on theoretical studies in the current core of the graduate economics program can be seen as a type of hazing process that seems to have a significant cost since many women (and men) with great creative promise are discouraged from continuing in economics and do not benefit nearly as much as they would have from more policy-driven core courses.     

Identity,homophily and in-group bias

Many instances of social interaction display either or both of the following well-documented phenomena. People tend to interact with similar others (homophily). They also tend to treat others of shared social identity more favorably (in-group bias). While both phenomena involve some degree of discrimination towards others, a systematic study of their relations and interplay is yet missing. In this paper we report the findings of an experiment designed to address this issue. Participants are exogenously and randomly assigned to one of two groups. Subsequently they play a sequence of eight games with either an in-group or an out-group member. In treatment EXO in- and out-group matches are formed exogenously, while in ENDO participants can choose between in- and out-group matches. We find strong evidence of in-group bias in EXO, and strong evidence of homophily in ENDO. In-group biases, however, either decrease or disappear altogether under endogenous matching. We show that self-selection of homophilous agents into in-group matches cannot explain this fact. We also find that homophily is strongly correlated with risk aversion, and we build on this evidence to derive a rationale for both the existence of homophily and the disappearance of in-group biases under endogenous matching.     

On the different survival rates of Portuguese microbusinesses – the case of projects supported by microcredit

ABSTRACT

In spite of their importance to the micro-entrepreneur’s life, Portuguese microbusinesses exhibit a short duration in activity. However, until now there has been scarce attention about the determinants characterizing the microbusiness and/or the micro-entrepreneur. This paper is based on a very comprehensive survey distributed to the microcredit borrowers in Portugal. The main empirical findings suggest that more mature entrepreneurs, with family support, a permanent set of customers, and an awareness of the quality of their goods and services exhibit lower hazard rates of finishing the business. Conversely, high-fixed costs, bad business locations, and periods of economic crisis significantly reduce the duration of the business.     

On the dynamics of U.S. consumer sentiment and economic policy assessment

We utilize the Michigan Surveys of Consumers data to first investigate the dynamic relationship between consumers’ assessment of current and future economic conditions (Index of Current Economic Conditions (ICC) and Index of Consumer Expectations (ICE)), and then examine how these assessments are influenced by deterioration/improvement in consumers’ appraisal of economic policies of the government (GP). We further assess how deterioration/improvement in ICC and ICE influences GP. For 1978–2015, our findings first indicate that ICC and ICE are cointegrated and both respond to disequilibrium to restore the long-run equilibrium relationship. Second, deterioration in GP results in deterioration in both ICC and ICE. Improvement in GP, however, results in improvement in ICE with no impact on ICC. Third, deterioration in both ICC and ICE results in deterioration in GP. Improvement in ICE results in improvement in GP, but improvement in ICC has no impact on GP. The observed asymmetries are in line with ‘negativity bias’, whereby people tend to give more weight to negative events than to positive ones.     

Think Globally,Teach Locally: Experiencing the Foreign Aid Debate Through Service Learning

Abstract

Novel curricular strategies are required if institutions want all students to actively experience the benefits of global knowledge and civic engagement, as financial and practical commitments frequently make study abroad inaccessible to many students. In this paper, we outline an innovative service-learning course, where local action coupled with an international target, offered a parallel and novel learning strategy that capitalized on the strengths of experiential education, while providing a practical and more inclusive student engagement opportunity available to a larger subset of students. We also describe our teaching strategy, which emphasizes the social context of the classroom: discovery, self-exploration, and shared learning. Together, service learning and a critical pedagogy can better help students relate to the otherwise abstract processes of foreign aid. In 2013 and 2014, approximately 30 undergraduate students participated in a student-led outreach project soliciting bicycle donations to support human development efforts in Uganda and Ghana. In addition to making reasonable progress toward learning outcomes during the two-year pilot, we found that the everyday challenges our students encountered in their service-learning project were microcosms for some of the large-scale, global challenges that foreign aid delivery faces.     

Determinants of fiscal rules

This article empirically assesses determinants of countries’ fiscal rules suggested by the political science, sociology and economics literature. We find several of these variables to be related to the stringency of fiscal rules, providing indirect evidence for the relevance of governments’ deficit bias. These determinants may also serve as instruments in models with (endogenous) fiscal rules as explanatory variable.     

Experimental Evidence on Alternative Environmental Valuation Methods

Experimental methods are central to assessments of environmental valuation approaches that are operationally meaningful. Existing lab experiments focus attention sharply on the neglect of hypothetical bias. They also offer constructive solutions to correct this bias, and beg for validation in field experiments.     

The impact of production offshoring on the skill composition of manufacturing firms: evidence from Italy

In this work we explore how the international outsourcing of production impacts the skill composition of employment within Italian manufacturing firms. In particular, our aim is to assess whether the choice to offshore production activities to cheap‐labour countries implies a bias in the employment of skilled workers relative to unskilled ones.

Using a balanced panel of firms covering the period 1995–2003, we set up a counterfactual analysis in which, by using a difference‐in‐differences propensity score matching estimator, we compare the dynamics of skill demand for treated and control firms while addressing the possible problem of selection bias.

Our results identify a ‘potential’ skill bias effect of production offshoring. In particular, we find that treated firms tend to show an upward shift in the skill ratio with respect to the counterfactual sample, but coefficients are not significantly different from zero. When we look at the elements of the skill ratio separately, we find that the skill bias is driven by a fall in the employment of production workers (blue collars), rather than by the increase in the employment of non‐production workers (white collars), thus providing further evidence on the unskilled labour‐saving nature of international outsourcing.     

Measuring partisan media bias in US newscasts from 2001 to 2012

This paper investigates the positioning in political news coverage of the big four US newscasts, ABC News, CBS News, FOX News and NBC News, as well as how they alter their positions when president Barack Obama took over from George W. Bush. Our empirical analysis is based on the tonality of their political coverage using more than 815,000 news items on Democrats and Republicans from 2001 through 2012. Using the Political Coverage Index (PCI), we find evidence for partisan and biased news coverage across all of the newscasts, with a general tendency of ABC News, CBS News, and NBC News to be slightly more critical of the Republicans, and of FOX News with a clear tendency to be more critical of Democrats. Moreover, and even more interesting, two of the newscasts – CBS News and NBC News – changed their political coverage such that it became more conservative when Democrat Barack Obama became president. This effect becomes even more pronounced when observations from election campaign periods are dropped. We interpret these results as evidence for a watchdog-like anti-government bias on the part of the observed newscasts. In contrast, FOX News remains Democrat-critical independent of who is in office and can be seen as partisan from this perspective. The results are confirmed when controlling for differences in reporting rates between the parties and the administrations using interaction terms.     

The Smithian ontology of ‘relative poverty’: revisiting the debate between Amartya Sen and Peter Townsend*

ABSTRACT

Although ‘relative poverty’ is a phrase of immediate recognition, wide circulation and an ever increasing acceptance in the last half century, the concept itself remains surprisingly undertheorised. This paper wishes to try and remedy this discursive deficiency by proposing an ontological elucidation of the nature of our needs. The author re-visits the dispute between Amartya Sen and Peter Townsend — a duel of crossed wires (if not sabres), which can be seen as representative of the various theoretical takes on the nature of relative poverty. While the dispute itself ended with an unfortunate misunderstanding between the two scholars, whose different disciplinary affiliations have done nothing but replicate the rift, the author nonetheless foregrounds the commonality between the two thinkers – their respective identification with Adam Smith. By exploring points of differences and convergence with Adam Smith’s own ontology of needs, which the author reconstructed elsewhere, the paper hopes to offer insights into the ontology of ‘relative poverty’ as well as to suggest that taking this ontology seriously would lead us inevitably to a re-examination of ‘economic methodology’.     

Cost-effectiveness analyses using real-world data: an overview of the literature

Abstract

Objectives: Real-world evidence (RWE) may provide good estimates of absolute event probabilities and costs in patients in actual clinical practice, but their use in decision-analytic models poses many challenges. A literature review based on a systematic search was conducted to summarize the limitations of using RWE in decision-analytic modeling reported in the literature, but also to identify existing recommendations about real-world modeling.

Methods: A literature search was performed on Medline and Embase databases, as well as relevant websites. No restrictions in language or geographical scope were imposed.

Results: A total of 14 references were included. RWE is recognized as a valuable source of data for market access and reimbursement, and as a complement to clinical trial evidence for treatment pathways, resource use, long-term natural history, and effectiveness. The main limitations identified in the literature were: confounding bias, missing data, lack of accurate data related to drug exposure and outcomes, errors during the record-keeping process, protection of private data, and insufficient numbers of patients. Although most submission guidelines recognized the potential biases associated with RWE, guidance on the appropriate methods to deal with these biases, and approaches to review different relevant evidence to inform model development, were scarce. Several initiatives have attempted to provide guidance on the use of RWE in decision-modeling.

Conclusions: RWE is likely to be particularly valuable for informing healthcare policy-makers when formulating appropriate treatment pathways, encouraging the optimal allocation of scarce resources, and improving aggregate patient outcomes. However, little guidance is available on the relative merits of using efficacy and/or effectiveness evidence in Health Technology Appraisal submissions. Further research is needed to better understand these methods and their potential applications in a broader range of scenarios and simulation studies, and their impact on economic modeling.