Responses of air cargo carriers to industrial changes

This study examines how product characteristics, values, inventory cost, shipping charges, shipping distance, and time affect an international firm's choice of air carrier. An individual choice model is constructed by assuming that the shipper in a specific industry chooses the optimal air cargo carrier with the minimal logistics cost. The study further aggregates air cargo demands on different routes for the carriers by considering the spatial distribution of the origin-destination pattern and any temporal changes in the industrial structure. A case study is used to illustrate the application of the proposed model using data from Taiwan Taoyuan International Airport and the industrial economics database in Taiwan. The results show that shippers with high product value and short delivery distance focus on the shipping charge and prefer choosing the air cargo carrier that offers more flights. Further a carrier may achieve a larger market share if its supply attributes match the industrial structure and the product characteristics of the market on the route. Finally, because dynamic changes in the industrial structure and product value have been captured, the results are more accurate than that from the Grey model.     

Air transport liberalisation and the development of third level airports in France

The liberalisation of air transport in the European Union encouraged a proliferation of new entry airlines exploiting the opportunities offered by minor airports. This was particularly apparent in France where “third level” airports experienced growth associated with start-up airlines using low-capacity aircraft. A summary of these trends is followed by a detailed examination of the Centre-East District, which demonstrates that the aspirations of both airlines and airports have been compromised by recent restructuring of the French airline industry. Far from providing greater competition, deregulation has increased the quasi-monopoly of Air France as market forces proved to be stronger than liberalisation. As a result, many third level airports face an uncertain future, especially in the light of the terrorist attack on the United States and its likely effect on airline economics.     

Challenges to domestic air freight in Australia: Evaluating air traffic markets with gravity modelling

With two of the busiest air traffic corridors globally, Sydney-Melbourne (SYD-MEL) and Sydney-Brisbane (SYD-BNE), very liberal open skies agreements, and the world's most isolated large city in Perth, air freight in Australia should be destined for substantial growth, but has in contrast to other regions such as the US not yet materialised. This paper identifies challenges surrounding domestic air freight markets in Australia and compares the provision of road vs air freight services utilising gravity modelling methods. Our findings suggest the impedance of domestic air freight services in Australia is greater for regional areas between the primary cities (such as Canberra, between Sydney and Melbourne) than remoter areas (such as Cairns in Northern Australia). Our models show further that in addition to distance, air freight capacity on any of our analysed routes is despite being demand-pulled in terms of GDP dependency significantly attuned to factors at both the origin (in particular domestic trade capability, i.e. manufacturing and logistics) and destination.     

Exploring the network structure and nodal centrality of China’s air transport network: A complex network approach

This paper uses a complex network approach to examine the network structure and nodal centrality of individual cities in the air transport network of China (ATNC). Measures for overall network structure include degree distribution, average path length and clustering coefficient. Centrality metrics for individual cities are degree, closeness and betweenness, representing a node’s location advantage as being directly connected to others, being accessible to others, and being the intermediary between others, respectively. Results indicate that the ATNC has a cumulative degree distribution captured by an exponential function, and displays some small-world (SW) network properties with an average path length of 2.23 and a clustering coefficient of 0.69. All three centrality indices are highly correlated with socio-economic indicators of cities such as air passenger volume, population, and gross regional domestic product (GRDP). This confirms that centrality captures a crucial aspect of location advantage in the ATNC and has important implications in shaping the spatial pattern of economic activities. Most small and low-degree airports are directly connected to the largest cities with the best centrality and bypass their regional centers, and therefore sub-networks in the ATNC are less developed except for Kunming in the southwest and Urumchi in the northwest because of their strategic locations for geographic and political reasons. The ANTC is relatively young, and not as efficient and well-developed as that of the US.     

A transport carbon footprint methodology to assess airport carbon emissions

Airports are important nodes in the air transport system, but also local sources of environmental impacts. Emissions of CO₂ are among the most relevant ones because of their potential greenhouse effects. Many policies and guidelines have been identified at national and world level to reduce such kind of impacts. In this paper, a Transport Carbon Footprint methodology has been set to identify Unit Carbon Footprints (UCFs) linked to some identified emission macro-sources – i.e., land vehicles, on-ground aircraft, airport handling and terminal equipment – to compute the contribution of the single macro-source to the total amount of CO₂. Particularly, UCFs due to transport activities have been defined according to some relevant transport variables. The computation of UCF values for a given airport allows computing both the contribution of each macro-source and also evaluating the effectiveness of transport-related actions aiming at reducing the carbon impact. The methodology has been applied to the airport of Bologna, in Northern Italy, and its UCF values for the identified macro-sources have been computed.     

A multivariate neural forecasting modeling for air transport – Preprocessed by decomposition: A Brazilian application

An artificial neural forecasting model is developed for air transport passenger analysis. It uses a preprocessing method that decomposes information to reveal relevant features from the data. It is found that neural processing outperforms the traditional econometric approach and offers generalization on time series behavior, even where there are only small samples.     

在国家现代综合交通运输体系建设中确立铁路优先发展战略

分析铁路运输能力远远不能满足国民经济发展需求的原因,系统阐述在国家现代综合交通运输体系建设中确立铁路优先发展战略的重要性、紧迫性,提出国家优先发展铁路的建议。     

An analysis of essential air service structure and performance

The US federal Essential Air Service program was established to subsidize air service to communities unable to retain commercial carriers after airline deregulation in 1978. In this paper, the subsidized service between program communities and commercial hub airports is investigated relative to several Essential Air Service planning objectives. Specifically, observed community hubbing activity is compared with that modeled to minimize hub access cost and maximize community accessibility within the commercial air transport system. Results highlight trends in system performance relative to these planning objectives and indicate that significant potential exists for enhancing the efficiency of the program in light of limited resources.     

An analysis of the determinants of air traffic volume for European metropolitan areas

This paper examines the determinants of air traffic volume in the major European urban regions, highlighting those that depend on the metropolitan features of cities. We used homogeneous urban and airline data that make international comparisons possible. We found that GDP, the level of economic decision-power, tourism functions, and the distance from a major air market account for more than two-thirds of the variation in air service. This seems to indicate that air service remains profoundly rooted in the metropolitan features of urban regions (notably size and decision-power), even if low-cost airlines are probably less linked to the latter because they partly focus on niche markets and regional airports. Much of the remainder is probably attributable to the specificities of the urban economy, to actors’ strategies and to competition from high-speed trains.     

Air transport globalization, liberalization and sustainability: post-2001 policy dynamics in the United States and Europe

Against a context of international crisis in the air transport industry, this paper examines the implications of the ways in which strategies developed by key air transport stakeholders, as well as the contemporary dynamics of the globalized, liberalized market place, impact directly on sustainability issues. More specifically, the paper has two objectives. First, it discusses the policy ramifications of the interrelationships between the concepts of globalization, liberalization, and sustainability within the air transport industry. Second, the paper explores the import of these interrelationships as they interconnect with stakeholder strategies in the differing geopolitical contexts of the US and EU. Particular attention is given to airline network and frequency strategies. The paper concludes that while the financial sustainability of the airline industry is the overwhelming concern today, if this is essentially the short-term crisis that the airline industry claims it to be, the longer-term predictions of air transport growth will again bring environmental sustainability issues to the fore.     

Theoretical framework of systems design for the air transportation system including an inherently quantitative philosophy of scenario development

This paper provides an overview of an inherently quantitative scenario philosophy for systems analysis and innovative concept design in the context of the Air Transportation System (ATS). A general perspective of the ATS is visualized in an “atomic model” with surrounding external scenario factors and the aircraft as the key connecting element between the main stakeholders: manufacturers, airlines, air navigation service providers (ANSPs) and airports. An iterative waterfall model is presented, which serves as a mental model of integration and decomposition over cascades of levels of detail from global scenario level to a single technology. The difference between classical scenario technique and a quantitative, yet participatory methodology of developing scenarios for the ATS is described. In order to integrate and decompose over a large span of levels of details, concept design and synthesis is as important as analysis. Further, quantitative scenario development may be considered as the synthesis of a skillful manipulation of a model deck. Scenario Gaming can be a method to simulate the settlement on requirements of complex socio-technological systems with multiple stakeholders and conflicting perspectives under radically changing boundary conditions. Scenario thinking can be an innovative and explorative instrument of participatory futurology, if not reduced to a mere “input for a tool chain”.     

Route churn: an analysis of low-cost carrier route continuity in Europe

Discontinuity of air routes is a subject that has been analysed in various ways. For example, the complex network approach focuses on network robustness and resilience due to route interruptions during a relatively short period. Also seasonal interruptions of air routes are a well-documented phenomenon in the context of demand variability. However, only recently discussions emerge on the more permanent cessation of air routes, the route churn. Today, European low-cost carriers frequently apply route churn in their networks. To enable early route churn detection in these networks, a regression model is developed in which route characteristics explain the churning likelihood of individual routes. The results of the econometric analysis show that churn rates are higher during an economic downturn, within the Eastern European market, between the Eastern and the Mediterranean market and between primary airports. In addition, we find that distance and the number of seats offered have a significant negative effect on the churn likelihood. The results also show significant effects of market share, seasonality and route age on the chance of cessation. To conclude, the paper demonstrates substantial differences in churn behaviour amongst specific low-cost carriers.     

Air route suspension: The role of stakeholder engagement and aviation and non-aviation factors

This study provides insight into how aviation and non-aviation factors affect the decision to suspend air routes. Using examples from Australian domestic routes, the paper analyses the business relationships and negotiation processes followed by airports, airlines, and destination management organizations (DMOs) to avoid air route suspensions. Data were collected through semi-structured interviews with key aviation and tourism stakeholders directly impacted by suspended routes. The outcomes of this paper demonstrate that while most of the major reasons for air route suspension in Australia are mentioned in existing literature and are linked to demand, other factors have not previously been deeply investigated, including how stakeholders can be involved to avoid air route suspension. The paper also explores and identifies strengths and weaknesses in the relationship among airlines, DMOs and airports.     

铁路运输通道现状分析与发展设想

结合各分类区段客流货流密度,分析我国铁路网的基本特征,探讨铁路运输通道含义及其作用,研究我国铁路运输通道现状及发展布局。     

The development of Park and Ride in Scotland

The provision of Park and Ride services is one of the principal means of addressing problems caused by traffic congestion in urban areas. Bus-based Park and Ride schemes are intended to attract motorists from outside an urban area to park at a peripherally located car park and travel by bus to the town centre. A number of local authorities in Scotland have been developing such schemes. These will introduce a new form of land use on the fringe of Scotland's towns and cities. In addition, the provision of Park and Ride is also likely to influence the catchment areas of retail and tourist centres and the residential location of employees in towns thus served.     

适应经济社会发展新要求推动铁路实现又好又快发展

分析铁路运输在区域经济社会发展中的作用,结合经济社会发展要求、和谐社会发展目标、区域协调发展阶段、创新型国家建设使命,探讨新形势下如何推动铁路全面发展。     

The air transport market in Central and Eastern Europe after a decade of liberalisation – Different paths of growth

This paper describes the changes which are taking place in air transport for the Czech Republic, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Hungary, Poland, Slovenia and Slovakia in the context of liberalisation. It also attempts to identify the common and specific factors that influence these processes in different markets of the region. The indicators for the development of the aviation market were designed using, among other things, statistics describing the infrastructure facilities and the level of activity in the market. Composite indicators and the weights for their individual components were constructed using a Multidimensional Comparative Analysis. The conditions under which changes were taking place in Central and Eastern European Countries were described with the help of selected socio-economic panel data. Finally, One-Way Fixed Effects and Seemingly Unrelated Regressions (SUR) models describing the development of the aviation markets were estimated. The adopted procedure made it possible to identify the most important common and specific factors that exerted the greatest influence on the situation of air transport in CEE Countries. The very initiation of the liberalisation process undoubtedly had a significantly beneficial effect on the development of route networks and aviation activities as broadly understood. However, the pace of change depended not only on the progress of liberalisation itself, but also on the diverse socio-economic conditions in the individual countries. As a result of the analysis, the markets were divided into two separate groups, which in many respects are distinctly different from each other. The results of the estimation models also showed that there are strong unobservable determinants of development which are specific to individual countries.     

Developing new urban public transport systems: An irrational decision-making process

The decision-making process for planning new urban public transport systems in the UK is examined by studying 11 new and planned systems. The objectives of building the systems relate to transport and development issues. A number of key factors are taken into account during the decision-making process: forecast demand, image, deregulation of buses, technological innovation, private sector involvement and the funding mechanism. The requirement for proven technology and the forecast demand for the systems reduces the choice to one of light rail or bus. The effects of bus deregulation, funding and image, essentially reduce that choice to light rail or nothing. Cost should be kept low, which suggests a bus based system, but current legislation favours more expensive light rail systems. The conclusion is that although transport planners make rational decisions within the current political framework, the framework, and therefore some of the decisions, are not rational.     

关于铁路运输经营内涵式发展的对策研究

通过对内涵式发展要义的研究,系统阐述在外延发展条件不尽完备的情况下实施内涵式发展战略的重要性、紧迫性,对呼和浩特铁路局坚定不移走内涵扩大再生产之路进行探索。