Foot-and-mouth Disease and Trade Restrictions: Latin American Access to Pacific Rim Beef Markets

Owing to their eradication of foot-and-mouth disease Argentina and Uruguay have recently been granted access to the fresh beef markets of the United States and Canada. This raises the prospect of Latin American suppliers gaining access to other Pacific Rim markets, and of increasing the integration of the Pacific and non-Pacific beef markets. A two-commodity spatial equilibrium model is constructed for the base year 1995. Projections are then made for the year 2001 under various policy and other scenarios. In some instances, major changes in trade patterns may result.     

Economic Integration Reconsidered*

Economic integration refers to the various types of agreements coordinating economic policies and regulations between countries. There has been a rapid increase in the number of regional trade agreements (RTAs) since the mid 1990s and appetite for deep integration was reflected in the growth of European Union (EU) membership. However, the rejection of the Trans‐Pacific Partnership by the United States and the United Kingdom's rejection of the EU common market are symptomatic of a new anti‐integration wave. In this address, I discuss the roots of anti‐integration sentiments and I review the economics of integration, the measurement and sources of the gains from trade, and trade policy. Canada has much to gain from securing RTAs with large countries like the United States, the EU, and, eventually, with Japan and China. The North American Free Trade Agreement made winners and losers, but long‐run gains more than made up for short‐run pains. Thus, there is no economic justification for maintaining interprovincial and international trade barriers in some of Canada's agri‐food industries. L'intégration économique implique la coordination de politiques économiques et règlementations par le biais d'accords régionaux (ARs). Le nombre d'ARs a augmenté rapidement depuis le milieu des années 90 et la croissance du nombre de membres de l'Union Européenne (UE) reflète une tendance d'intégration profonde. Toutefois, le rejet du partenariat transpacifique par les États‐Unis et la sortie du Royaume‐Uni du marché commun européen sont le reflet d'une nouvelle vague anti‐intégration. Mon texte discute des facteurs qui ont contribué à cette vague et passe en revue les analyses sur l'intégration économique, la mesure et les sources des gains du commerce et les politiques commerciales. Une petite écononmie ouverte comme celle du Canada a beaucoup à gagner d'ARs avec de gros pays comme les États‐Unis, l'UE, et éventuellement, le Japon et la Chine. L'accord de libre échange nord‐américain a fait des gagnants et des perdants, mais les gains à long terme ont plus que compensé pour les pertes de court terme. Par conséquent, il n'y a pas d'argument économique justifiant le maintien de barrières aux commerces interprovincial et international dans certaines industries agroalimentaires.     

Potential implications of COVID-19 on the Canadian pork industry

Canada and the United States have strong economic ties and form part of an integrated North American pork industry. Canada's pork industry is export-oriented, and the United States represents a key market for both live pigs and pork. Pork value chain stakeholders include input suppliers, pig producers, transportation companies, slaughter plants, wholesalers, and retailers. There are three overriding areas of concern for the Canadian pork industry with respect to potential impacts of the current pandemic (COVID-19). The first is Canada/US trade and the ability to continue exporting Canadian live pigs and pork to the United States. The second is labor and the impact of potential absenteeism on all sectors of the pork value chain. The third is global trade, because Canada's pork industry relies heavily on exporting pork to markets around the world.     

Effects of Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy Outbreaks on U.S. Cattle and Beef Prices

U.S. trade of beef and live cattle declined substantially after the discoveries of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) in Canada and the United States in 2003. In this study, an econometric model is developed to estimate the effects of lifting trade restrictions on U.S. cattle and beef prices. Results show that increases in imports of Canadian cattle and beef would lower prices of slaughter steers, feeder steers, and retail beef, but these negative impacts would be more than negated by the positive effects on prices that would result if beef exports return to near pre-BSE levels.     

A Spatial Equilibrium Analysis of U.S.–Canadian Disputes on the World Softwood Lumber Market

This paper utilizes a world spatial equilibrium model to examine the effects of U.S.–Canadian softwood lumber disputes on U.S., Canadian, and other exporters' and importers' lumber markets. Results show that the U.S. import tariff on Canadian softwood lumber impacts prices, supply, demand and trade flows not only in the United States and Canada but also in the other countries. Though the goal of U.S. trade restriction is to limit imports from Canada and protect its producers, the United States cannot fully accomplish this goal as non-Canadian exporters fill the void left by the reduced imports from Canada. Canadian producers lose from the U.S. policy, but their loss is mitigated as Canada redirects its exports to other importers. Importing countries such as Japan and the European Union benefit from the U.S. trade restrictions as Canada seeks to sell its softwood lumber to these countries.     

Implications of the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement for Processed Food Markets

Canada and the European Union (EU) recently completed the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) to liberalize bilateral trade. Processed food trade between Canada and the EU is one of the fastest growing markets, in spite of large trade restrictions due to high tariffs and egregious nontariff barriers (NTB). The processed food sector is characterized by firms which differ in size, productivity, produce differentiated products, and engage in monopolistic competition. We implement a four‐region (Canada, the EU, the United States, and the Rest of the World) model of the processed food industry, incorporating these firm characteristics to study the effects of CETA. The results show Canadian and EU bilateral trade flows expand, the number of exporting firms rises, and net welfare in both these countries increases. Though CETA does not liberalize NTBs, we examine the impacts of a 40% cut in NTBs to highlight the benefits that would have accrued had CETA also covered NTBs. Under this scenario, the trade flows would have expanded significantly, and, more importantly, Canadian and EU welfare would have risen by 11.8‐ and 39.4‐fold, respectively. Since CETA excludes the United States, the U.S. processed food industry loses due to greater competition in Canadian and the EU markets, and the net U.S. welfare declines.     

International Marketing of Organic Foods: Consumers,Standards, and Harmonization

Differing technical standards can be barriers to international trade. Harmonizing standards is one means of removing barriers to trade. It is argued in this article that international harmonization may not be welfare enhancing if consumers have a strong attachment to their domestic standards. Standards for organic products differ among countries and act as a barrier to trade. International harmonization has been proposed. Consumers were surveyed in the United States, United Kingdom, and Canada to determine their likely attachment to existing domestic organic standards. The results suggest that consumers, even those with a preference for organic foods, have little understanding of their domestic standards and only weakly identify with them. As a result, harmonization could be pursued. Agribusiness firms that are interested in harmonization to expand their access to export markets should promote the development of a new international standard rather than harmonization to one of the existing domestic standards.     

Agriculture in the United States,Mexico, Canada Agreement: Agreeing to keep things pretty much the same

North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) was referred to by U.S. President Trump as one of the worst trade deals ever made. Given this billing, one might have expected the result of its renegotiation to be a major change to the trading relationship between the United States and Canada. The new United States, Mexico, Canada Agreement (USMCA), however, retains a great deal of its predecessor. This is particularly true for agricultural trade. Canadian market access into the United States remains virtually unchanged. No major domestic regulatory changes were agreed to by Canada. While there were concessions made on market access for U.S. products into Canada's heavily protected sectors where the supply management policy applies, they do not appear to threaten the system. While the value of the compensation has not yet been announced, compensation for losses that will be suffered by farmers producing under supply management is agreed in principle. The USMCA is an agreement to keep things pretty much the same.     

Estimating the Degree of Market Integration

Existing tests of spatial market integration are commonly based on statistical criteria without an explicit link to an economic model of price determination. This article proposes new measures of market integration defined directly in terms of a well-known spatial price determination model and develops an econometric methodology for estimating these measures. Due to the intractability of the conditional density function of prices, we use indirect inference to estimate the model parameters and market integration measures. The methodology is illustrated with simulated data and is applied to soybean price data for the United States, Brazil, and the EU.     

Black Sea and World Wheat Market Price Integration Analysis

In 2008–10, Russia and Ukraine together exported an average of 29 million tons of wheat per year, and have become important players in the international wheat market. This research summarizes the short‐ and long‐run wheat price dynamics between Ukraine and Russia, and other major wheat exporters—the United States, European Union (EU), and Canada—from 2004 to 2010. Tests of market price co‐integration (Johansen maximum likelihood test and residual‐based tests) as well as threshold error correction techniques were performed for this purpose. The results suggest that Russian wheat prices were co‐integrated with EU and U.S. wheat prices but not with Canadian wheat prices. Ukrainian wheat prices were found to be co‐integrated with French wheat prices only. The estimated long‐run wheat price transmission elasticities were estimated to be equal to 1.04 between Russian and French (a representative country of the EU) wheat prices, 1.16 between Russian and U.S. wheat prices, and 1.05 between Ukrainian and French wheat prices. We also found the short‐term relationships between the co‐integrated series to be statistically significant. Price adjustments in all co‐integrated prices were found to be symmetric.     

Diversification, Vertical Integration, and the Regional Pattern of Dairy Farm Size

Dairy farm size differs considerably across the United States. We analyze patterns of dairy farm size to determine how differences in vertical integration and diversification relate to farm size. We find that diversification accounts for little size variation. For vertical integration, the partial correlation with dairy herd size is strongly negative. Dairy value-added size measures vary less across regions than herd size, indicating that an important part of herd size variation relates to vertical integration. Nonetheless, dairy farms in the Pacific and South regions remain much larger than farms in the traditional dairy regions, even when accounting for vertical integration.     

China's Accession to the World Trade Organization: What Is at Stake for Agricultural Markets?

We analyze the impact of China's accession to the World Trade Organization on major crop and livestock markets using the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) modeling framework. We incorporate expected changes in consumer income, textile production, and trade policies as exogenous shocks to the baseline model. Following accession, revenues decline in China's livestock, grain, and oilseed industries, while cotton production prospers despite increased imports. Chinese consumers benefit from lower food prices, with vegetable oil, dairy, and meat consumption increasing significantly. Argentina, Brazil, Canada, the European Union, and the United States are the greatest beneficiaries from expanded agricultural trade with China.     

A Continental Barley Market: Where Are the Gains?

Under a continental barley marketing system, the Canadian Wheat Board would no longer be the only exporter of barley to the United States. Even though the volume of malting barley exports to the United States would increase, the historic price premium in both Canada and the United States would drop sufficiently to lower total revenue to malting barley producers. The United States' Export Enhancement Program allows the Canadian Wheat Board to sell feed barley at premium prices in some markets, including the United States. Under some conditions the continental barley market would adversely affect optimal trade flows and reduce revenue for feed barley producers. The potential to offset these losses in revenue by reducing grain-handling charges or by growing higher-yielding feed varieties appears to be very limited. Dans un système de marché continental de l'brge, la Commission canadienne du blé ne serait plus le seul exportateur d'orge vers les Etats-Unis. Même si Ie volume des exportations d'orge de malterie augmentait, la prime dont a longtemps bénéficié cette catégorie d'orge, tant au Canada qu'aux Etats-Unis, tomberait suffisamment pour abaisser les recettes totales des producteurs. Par ailleurs, le Programme américain de stimulation des exportations (EEP) autorise actuellement la CCB à vendre son orge fourragère à prime sur certains marchés, dont les Etats-his. Dans certaines circonstances, le marché continental de l'orge aurait un effet négatif sur les courants d'échange et réduirait les recettes des producteurs de ce type d'orge. Les possibilités de compenser ces pertes de revenu parune compression des frais de manutention et de stockage ou par la mise en service de variétés fourragères à rendement plus élevé paraissent très restreintes.     

The Chinese Enigma: Impacts of WTO Accession Upon Canadian and U.S. Exports and Imports

China's accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) is an important milestone in the integration of this nation into the world economy. Substantial reduction in trade barriers by China, one of the world's largest and most rapidly growing economies, is expected to have a significant impact, both on China itself and on the global economy. In assessing likely impacts on trade between China and North America of China joining the WTO, a priori one might expect new opportunities for China in labor intensive activities/products, while for the United States and for Canada one might expect added export market opportunities, as China grows, in activities/products that require land, resources and capital. However, the extent to which China and its trading partners will benefit from China's increasing integration into the global economy will largely depend on the internal changes in policy and infrastructure that may be adopted by China. China has embarked on a process of economic reform, but the speed and extent to which this continues to be pursued will affect this nation's ability to capitalize on its comparative advantages and to meet new challenges that are associated with the opportunities of access to a larger market. The difficulty of forecasting such internal changes means that China continues to be a major source of uncertainty in projecting world markets and trade flows. This uncertainty is particularly evident for trade in agricultural products     

Rejecting New Technology: The Case of Genetically Modified Wheat

Canada has stringent regulations covering the release of new wheat varieties, but the United States has virtually no regulations in this area. Monsanto Co. developed genetically modified (GM) spring wheat for North America, and made a commitment to the U.S. industry to release this new technology simultaneously in both Canada and the United States, or not at all. The Canadian regulatory bias against new varieties acted as a veto against GM wheat and caused Monsanto to shelve the technology in both countries in 2004. Substantial economic rents were foregone in North America due to the rejection of this new technology.     

Integration to Fragmentation: Post-BSE Canadian Cattle Markets, Processing Capacity, and Cattle Prices

This paper examines the potential impacts of expansions to Canadian cattle slaughter capacity with varying assumptions about the ability to export live cattle to the United States. A synthetic model is calibrated to historic data and then used to gauge the impacts of changing slaughter capacity, commercial grade beef import competition, and export potential for lower quality cuts on the Canadian cattle and beef sector. Expanded slaughter capacity improves fed cattle prices, but cull prices remain below pre-BSE levels. Reduced ability to export lower quality beef and increased import competition from commercial grade beef also further depress cattle prices .
Le présent article examine les répercussions potentielles d'une augmentation de la capacité d'abattage au Canada à l'aide de diverses hypothèses sur la capacité d'exporter des bovins vivants aux États-Unis. Un modèle synthétique est calibré selon les données historiques et utilisé pour évaluer les répercussions qu'une modification de la capacité d'abattage, de la concurrence quant à l'importation de bœuf de qualité commerciale et de l'exportation éventuelle de coupes de viande de qualité inférieure aurait sur le secteur canadien du bœuf. Une capacité d'abattage accrue améliore les prix des bovins finis, mais les prix des animaux de réforme demeurent inférieurs aux niveaux de prix observés avant la découverte de l'ESB. La diminution de la capacité d'exporter du bœuf de qualité inférieure et l'augmentation de la concurrence pour l'importation de bœuf de qualité commerciale contribuent également à faire baisser davantage les prix des bovins .     

Nontariff measures and product differentiation: Hormone-treated beef trade from the United States and Canada to the European Union

We investigate how a combination of the sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) measure and product differentiation affects beef trade and the consequences for the United States (US)–European Union (EU) hormone-treated beef trade dispute. We develop a partial equilibrium model to represent the global beef markets and product differentiation between non-hormone-treated beef, hormone-treated beef, and other beef. The results show that removing the SPS measure increases EU hormone-treated beef imports from the US and Canada and decrease beef consumption. In addition, EU hormone-treated beef consumption and imports can be related to a few key indicators of product differentiation. The framework we develop can estimate EU hormone-treated beef consumption and imports based on a minimum of parameters relating to product differentiation, thereby providing useful applied economic analysis of a key trade measure.     

Credit Allocation Decisions of Wheat Exporting Countries

Decision processes and factors determining allocations of credit guarantees for wheat purchases by major exporting countries are analyzed in this study. Results show that, in cases of the United States and Canada, discrete decisions are made first, followed by decisions on how much to guarantee, including zero guarantees. The European Community (EC) makes these two decisions concurrently. Important factors explaining credit decisions are market share, the recipient country's market size and the existence of credit by competitor exporting countries. All exporting countries'decisions are affected by the existence of the competitor countries'credit programs in particular import markets. U.S. decisions are most sensitive to market share and Canadian decisions to other exporting countries'provision of credit. The EC's decisions are affected primarily by market share and the existence of competitor programs.     

Estimates of the Effects of Canadian Tariff on Fresh Peach Imports From the United States

A spatial equilibrium single period model of the Canadian-United States fresh peach trade was constructed to evaluate the effect of the Canadian tariff on United States fresh peach exports to Canada, Canadian production, consumption and prices. The model consisted of fifteen United States and two Canadian producing regions, thirty-five United States and six Canadian consuming cities. Using historical trade patterns some but not all United States producing regions were permitted to ship to Canada and there were no Canadian shipments to the United States. Comparisons of the nontariff with the tariff solution vectors of production, trade, consumption and prices indicated that the tariff had only marginal effects on Canadian fresh peach imports from the United States and that Canadian consumption quantities and prices were only moderately affected. Un modèle du marché aux pêches au Canada et aux Etats-Unis fut construit pendant une seule période afin d' évaluer les effets du tarif Canadien sur les exportations de pêches Américaines au Canada, la production Canadienne, la consommation et les prix au détail. Le, modèle fut composé de 15 régions de production Américaines et de deux régions Canadiennes, ainsi que 35 villes de consommation d' Amérique et six villes de Canada. En utilisant des données commerciales et historiques, quelquesunes, mais pas toutes les régions de production, avaient le droit d' exporter au Canada, et il n' y avait pas d' exportation aux Etats-Unis. Nous nous sommes servis de ce modèle pour comparer les importations Canadiennes en franchise, la production, la consommation et les prix résultants à d' autres prix où les tarifs s' appliquaient. Les résultats ont montré que le tarif Canadien affectait à peine les importations de pêches fraîches des Etats-Unis et que la consommation Canadienne et les niveaux de prix ne subissaient qu' une légère modification.     

Trade Bans, Imperfect Competition, and Welfare: BSE and the U.S. Beef Industry

Between May 2003 and July 2005, the U.S. beef industry faced a total ban on Canadian cattle imports following the discovery of BSE in Canada in May 2003 and restrictions on U.S. beef exports following the discovery of BSE in the United States in December 2003. When the United States reopened its border to Canadian cattle in July 2005, shipments were restricted to cattle less than 30 months of age. The total ban on Canadian cattle imports and restrictions on U.S. beef exports overlapped between January 2004 and July 2005. The restrictions on Canadian cattle imports and U.S. beef exports overlapped for some time after July 2005. This paper addresses theoretically and empirically how to disentangle the impact on the U.S. beef industry of the BSE-related beef trade interruptions in the presence of overlaps and imperfect competition. Entre mai 2003 et juillet 2005, l'industrie bovine américaine s'est vue imposer une interdiction d'importer des bovins canadiens à la suite de la découverte d'un cas d'ESB au Canada en mai 2003 ainsi que des restrictions quant aux exportations de bœuf américain à la suite de la découverte d'un cas d'ESB aux États-Unis en décembre 2003. En juillet 2005, les États-Unis ont rouvert leur frontière aux bovins canadiens vivants de moins de 30 mois uniquement. L'interdiction absolue d'importer des bovins canadiens et les restrictions sur les exportations de bœuf américain se sont chevauchées entre janvier 2004 et juillet 2005. Les restrictions sur les importations de bovins canadiens et les exportations de bœuf américain se sont chevauchées pendant quelque temps après juillet 2005. Le présent article s'est penché sur les façons, théoriques et empiriques, de démĉler les répercussions que les interruptions du commerce du bœuf attribuables à l'ESB ont eues sur l'industrie bovine américaine en présence de chevauchements et de concurrence imparfaite.