ETHNIC DIVERSITY,PROPERTY RIGHTS,AND NATURAL RESOURCES

Countries rich in natural resources constitute both development failures and successes depending on their underlying socioeconomic fundamentals. Recent empirical evidence and theoretical work provide support for a resource-curse hypothesis based on ethnic fractionalization. There is also increasing empirical evidence suggesting that ethnic heterogeneity based on polarization is a strong deterrent of economic growth. In this paper, we explore the interlinkages between natural resource abundance and both measures of ethnic heterogeneity. In a two–simultaneous equation system, we assess the effects of fractionalization and polarization on property-rights protection, and thereby on growth, both directly as well as in interaction with our resource-abundance proxy. We find that ethnic polarization is more likely to have a direct negative impact on the effectiveness of property rights in a resource-rich context, which as we explain may suggest that different ethnic groups treat the contestable resource base as a semi-public good.     

利益冲突与制度扭曲——论政府在经济发展和转型中的作用

本文在McGuire和Olson(1996)的基础上进一步讨论了政府在经济活动中的地位和作用.我们发现,即使是具有共容利益的政府,其与社会之间依然存在着利益冲突.因此,政府的存在总会造成一定的制度扭曲,使经济处于非最优效率状态.本文还研究了政府与社会之间的利益冲突在转型经济中的表现.研究表明,政府与社会之间的利益冲突会随着经济体制的改进而得到强化,从而使新制度受到更大的扭曲.另外,政府与社会之间的利益冲突会对经济体制的优化产生不同的影响,但最终都会妨碍制度变迁达至最优状态.本文的研究实际上指出了政治体制改革对经济发展和转型的重要意义.我们也指出,在转型经济中,政治体制改革的时机选择不当可能会导致结果事与愿违     

Patentability and Knowledge Spillovers of Basic R&D

This study develops a research and development (R&D)–based growth model with basic and applied research to analyze the growth and welfare effects of two patent instruments: (i) the patentability of basic R&D and (ii) the division of profit between basic and applied researchers. We find that for the purpose of stimulating basic R&D and economic growth simultaneously, increasing the share of profit assigned to basic researchers is more effective than raising the patentability of basic R&D, which has either a negative effect or an inverted‐U effect on technological progress. However, a benevolent patent authority requires both patent instruments to achieve the socially optimal allocation in the decentralized economy.     

Effect of Migration on Children＇s Self-esteem in Rural China

China＇s rapid economic growth has been facilitated by its large volume of rural to urban migration. China ＇s projected future development, especially increasing urbanization, implies that such migration will further intensify. However, migration does not come without cost. There are concerns about the potential negative impacts of migration on children＇s care, education, and, in particular, the self-esteem of children left behind in villages where one or both parents have out-migrated to cities. In this paper, we employ unique survey data collected from Shaanxi Province, where more than 4700 ninth grade students from 36 rural junior high schools in five counties were surveyed in late 2011. The results show that having both parents migrate into cities significantly reduced children ＂s self-esteem. The effects are also gender sensitive. Girls that had a father or both parents who had out-migrated were inclined to have lower self-esteem than boys. Moreover, our study findings indicate that parental migration decreased children ＂s self-esteem more for individuals with initial low self-esteem.     

Ethnic Diversity and Local Economies

The effect on economic outcomes of ethnic diversity remains debatable. Some view ethnic diversity as a deterrent of development, whereas others consider it a source of innovation and productivity, which can be translated into a higher level of development. This study aims to shed further light on the issue. Applying instrumental variables estimation to district-level data, we find that ethnic diversity has a significant positive association with nighttime light intensity, which is used as a proxy for level of economic activity. The finding is robust to alternative specifications. Our finding suggests that centuries of interethnic contacts and coexistence may have helped ethnically diverse communities to gain experimental knowledge of the diverse beliefs and social practices and transition it into better economic outcomes.     

Giving and Receiving Foreign Aid: Does Conflict Count?

Of what relative importance are strategic motivators for bilateral aid donors, and how important is a recipient’s geographic proximity to conflict relative to previously examined economic and political motivators? We find that donors have historically responded to balanced incentives to reduce recipient poverty and further donor political and economic goals. Every bilateral donor conditions aid on conflict. The United States allocates large amounts of development aid to countries bordering a conflict, both pre- and post-Cold War. However, controlling for development levels and donor economic and political interest, most donors reduce aid to a recipient with an in-house or nearby intense conflict.     

ETHNIC BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC EMPOWERMENT: THE AFRIKANER CASE, 1915‐1970

The struggle for racial or ethnic group worth is an important socio‐political issue in societies where a minority ethnic group, like the English‐speaking whites in South Africa or the Chinese in Malaysia, dominates the economy but not the political system. There are two routes to the empowerment of an economically backward group. In the Afrikaner case, economic mobilisation formed part of a general ethnic mobilisation. While the Afrikaner‐controlled state after 1948 massively aided all whites, Afrikaner business increased its market share through serving a niche market. It received little ethnic patronage from the state or assistance from English corporations. A quite different from of advancement is that driven by the state, which imposes on large corporations the obligation to promote the economic empowerment of a racial group. While the first form facilitated the rise of the ethnic group as a whole, the latter one benefited mainly a business and middle class elite that may remain dependent on continuing state support.     

The Impact of Research and Development on Economic Growth and Productivity in the U.S. States

Research and development (R&D) has a large effect on both state output and total factor productivity in the long run. Our estimates for the private sector of the U.S. states from 1963 to 2007 show that the R&D elasticity averages 0.056–0.143. The implied returns to state Gross Domestic Product (GDP) from R&D spending are 82–211%. There are also positive R&D spillovers, with 70–80% of the total returns accruing to other states. We also find that states with more human capital have higher own‐ and other‐R&D elasticities, and those in lowest tier of economic development have the least own‐state R&D elasticity but the highest other‐R&D elasticity. In addition, we find that the positive effect of R&D spillovers across states is larger when we consider R&D spillovers across states based on economic similarity of R&D across sectors.     

The Shocking Origins of Political Transitions: Evidence from Earthquakes

Do earthquakes trigger political transitions? Using a rich panel dataset of 160 countries observed over 1950–2007, we find that earthquake shocks, measured in terms of the effect of ground‐motion amplitude on death toll, have two contradicting effects on political change. On the one hand, earthquakes drive transitions into democracy due to an affective shock, which we interpret to be the reaction of citizens by which they hold the incumbent government responsible for earthquake damages. On the other hand, earthquakes indirectly hasten transitions into a less democratic regime because they increase the income level contemporaneously, possibly due to short‐term emergency response and recovery expenditures, and thus, raising the opportunity cost of contesting the incumbent government. Overall, we show that, while not leading to a full‐fledged regime transition, earthquake shocks open a new democratic window of opportunity, but this window is narrowed by improved economic conditions.     

Why are there so many civil wars in Africa? Understanding and preventing violent conflict

Contrary to popular belief, Africa's civil wars are not dueto its ethnic and religious diversity. Using recently developedmodels of the overall incidence of civil wars in 161 countriesbetween 1960 and 1999, we draw lessons with special referenceto Africa, showing that the relatively higher incidence of warin Africa is not due to the ethno-linguistic fragmentation ofits countries, but rather to high levels of poverty, failedpolitical institutions and economic dependence on natural resources.We argue that the best and fastest strategy to reduce the incidenceof civil war in Africa and prevent future civil wars is to institutedemocratic reforms that effectively manage the challenges facingAfrica's diverse societies. To promote inter-group cooperationin Africa, specially tailored political governance and economicmanagement institutions are needed, and we advance some hypotheseson the nature of such institutions. We suggest that Africa'sethnic diversity in fact helps - rather than impedes - the emergenceof stable development as it necessitates inter-group bargainingprocesses. These processes can be peaceful if ethnic groupsfeel adequately represented by their national political institutionsand if the economy provides opportunity for productive activity.     

Does Aid Unpredictability Weaken Governance? Evidence from Developing Countries

This paper examines the effects of aid on governance from a different perspective by asserting that aid unpredictability can potentially increase corruption in recipient countries by providing incentives to risk‐averse and corrupt political leaders to engage in rent‐seeking activities. Analyses of data from 80 developing countries over the period 1984–2004 offer evidence that higher aid unpredictability is associated with more corruption as measured by a synthetic index. We also find further evidence that this latter impact is more severe in countries with weak initial institutional conditions. These findings are a supplementary advocacy for the need for better management and better predictability of aid flow in developing countries.     

Political and Economic Inequities and the Shaping of Institutions and Redistribution

This article studies the joint effect of political and economic inequalities on redistributive taxation and institutional quality. The theoretical model suggests that income inequality, coupled with political bias in favor of the rich, decreases redistribution and lowers institutional quality. The effect of the former is to increase productive investment, and the effect of the latter is to decrease it—with resulting ambiguous implications for economic growth. Testing these predictions empirically in a panel of countries, we find that inequality has a negative effect on both institutional quality and redistribution.     

Conflict heterogeneity in Africa

The economic development literature widely concurs that conflicts have adverse economic consequences that contribute to poverty, disinvestment and lower human capital leading to widespread inequality and lower economic growth. As such, understanding the nature of conflict has been an important focus for political leaders, policymakers and researchers alike. However, the existing literature does not typically distinguish between the effects of conflict determinants on conflicts by type of actor or aggressor (i.e. state, group and civilian-based). Using panel data analysis for 46 African countries from 1997 to 2017, and a comprehensive geo-referenced Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED) conflict dataset, we find evidence of variation in the determinants' effects on conflicts by actor types. For the full sample of countries, we find that military expenditure decreases civilian-based conflicts; globalisation increases both state- and civilian-based conflicts while state fragility increases group-based conflicts. On the other hand, income per capita increases all three types of conflicts. At regional level, we find variation in the effects of military expenditure and globalisation on state- and civilian-based conflicts. However, we find little variation in the effects of the determinants on group-based conflicts across the regions. The findings highlight the nuances in conflicts by actor types and their causes which need to be accounted for when formulating conflict resolution policies.     

Unity in diversity? The creation of new local governments in a decentralising Indonesia

This paper evaluates the proliferation of local governments concurrent with Indo-nesia's 2001 decentralisation. Largely static for decades under the New Order, the number of municipalities (kota) and districts (kabupaten) has increased by half, from 292 before decentralisation to 434 in 2003. Most of the increase is off-Java. This represents a fundamental change in Indonesia's subnational administrative, political and fiscal landscape. We present a new dataset that elucidates the characteristics of these new kota and kabupaten, and review political, fiscal and economic incentives for creating new jurisdictions. We find that geographic dispersion, political and ethnic diversity, natural resource wealth and scope for bureaucratic rent seeking all influence the likelihood of regional splits. Since jurisdictional changes will affect local governance and service delivery, we stress the importance of providing an effective institutional framework for the creation – or future amalgamation – of local governments as part of a strategic approach to consolidating Indonesia's decentralisation.     

Political Development,Agriculture, and Ethnic Divisions: An African Perspective

Abstract: In this paper it is argued that political development is the key to long‐run growth in developing nations. Political development is seen to be dependent on the extent to which a state or ruling elite's income is earned or unearned. The availability of earned income is linked to the structure and productivity of the agricultural sector. Applying the analysis to the sub‐Saharan African experience involves taking into account three factors: the international environment, the ethnic division of societies as a result of colonization, and the urban bias which characterized the economic strategy of the newly independent African states. As a result, agriculture collapsed, the ruling elite became increasingly dependent on unearned income, political underdevelopment occurred. The collapse of state authority significantly impoverished the region and resulted in significant civil conflict. Any long‐run solution must incorporate a broad‐based expansion in agricultural productivity.     

Feeling Richer or Poorer than Others: A Cross‐section and Panel Analysis of Subjective Economic Status in Indonesia*

This paper examines what makes us feel richer or poorer than others. It investigates cross‐sectional and longitudinal determinants of individuals’ subjective economic status in Indonesia. Using two waves of Indonesian Family Life Surveys, 1997 and 2000, I show that individuals’ perceptions of where they are on the economic scale are more dependent on a number of socioeconomic characteristics, as well as their attitudes towards their future economic status, than their current spending capacities would suggest. I also find significant, albeit weaker, expenditure and income effects on individuals’ subjective economic status once individual fixed effects are controlled for in the regression.     

INSTITUTIONS,BANKING DEVELOPMENT,AND ECONOMIC GROWTH

Does the institutional environment affect the causal relationship between banking development and economic growth? In the theoretical section of this paper, we develop an endogenous growth model where the institutional environment is captured through two indicators: judicial system efficiency and easiness of informal trade. We show that an improvement in the institutional environment has two effects. First, it intensifies the causality direction from banking to economic growth through a reduction in defaulting loans. Second, it reduces the interest rate spread. In the empirical section of the paper, we find bidirectional causality when analyzing 22 Middle Eastern and North African countries over the period 1984–2004. The first causality, which runs from banking development to economic growth, is more intense in countries with more developed institutional environment. The second causality runs from economic growth to banking and indicates that a more developed economy has a more developed banking system.     

The Value of Political Ties Versus Market Credibility: Evidence from Corporate Scandals in China

This paper compares the value of political ties and market credibility in China by examining the consequence of corporate scandals. We categorize Chinese corporate scandals by whether the scandal is primarily associated with the destruction of (i) the firm's political networks (political scandals), (ii) the firm's market credibility (market scandals), or (iii) both (mixed scandals). Consistent with our hypothesis that scandals signaling the destruction of political ties are associated with greater losses in firm value than scandals signaling the destruction of market credibility, we find that the stock market reacts more negatively to political and mixed scandals than to market scandals. In addition, the greater negative market reactions associated with political and mixed scandals are primarily driven by firms that rely more on political networks. We also find that, compared to market scandals, political and mixed scandals lead to larger decreases in operating performance, greater reduction in loans from state‐owned banks, and higher departure of political directors.     

Managerial Ability and Credit Ratings

We test whether credit rating analysts consider managerial ability as a credit risk factor and find that higher‐ability managers obtain more favorable credit ratings. Controlling for past performance, these results suggest that managerial ability is itself a significant credit rating factor. Cross‐sectional analyses indicate that managerial ability is beneficial specifically in firms facing financial or competitive pressure. We find that high‐ability managers mitigate the adverse impact on ratings of other credit risk factors including negative earnings and low interest coverage. Our results contribute to a growing literature documenting economic benefits to hiring and retaining high‐quality management.     

The trans‐Atlantic slave trade and local political fragmentation in Africa

This article examines the possibility that the trans‐Atlantic slave trade influenced the political institutions of villages and towns in precolonial Africa. Using anthropological data, it shows that villages and towns of ethnic groups with higher slave exports were more politically fragmented during the precolonial era. Instrumental variables are used to show that the relationship is causal. It is argued that this fragmentation is important for relative economic development because it still influences political institutions today. This argument is supported by the use of more contemporary data to show that in contemporary Nigeria and Tanzania, areas with higher levels of precolonial political fragmentation have a higher incidence of bribery.