A Stochastic Model with Penalized Coefficients for Spatial Price Comparisons: An Application to Regional Price Indexes in Italy

This paper focuses on a new strand of research that uses stochastic approach for making spatial price comparisons. We propose a novel method to account for the presence of spatial dependencies in consumer prices and consequently in price indexes by imposing penalization conditions on the estimation of traditional CPD models leading to the spatially-penalized country-product-dummy (SP-CPD) model. The paper proposes an appropriate estimation strategy, which enables us to simultaneously estimate all the parameters in the model, including the smoothing parameter of the penalization term instead of determining it externally. In order to estimate spatial price indexes for areas lacking in price data, we suggest applying the kriging methodology to the price indexes obtained from the SP-CPD model. This new approach is applied to official Italian CPI data for constructing regional spatial price indexes for 2014. The results show that price levels are higher in the Northern-Central regions than in the South.     

货币供应与股市价格关系的实证分析

基于对1999年12月-2004年8月我国货币供应与股票价格之间关系的协整检验,发现在样本区间内货币供应M0、M1、M2与股市价格没有稳定的均衡关系。利用结构突变理论,对样本区间内股市价格走势进行检验,发现2001年8月股市价格走势确实发生了结构突变。在此基础上将整个样本区间分为两个子区间,发现在两个子区间内二者存在均衡关系,但是相关方向却有所改变。     

An Application of the Hedonic Price Model to the Perth Residential Land Market*

This paper presents the results of an application of the Rosen-Freeman hedonic price model to the Perth (Western Australia) residential land market. A sample of over two thousand market transactions is used to estimate the value of residential land attributes. Major emphasis is given to those particular land attributes that are subject to public regulation and to the policy implications that follow.     

Market News in Commodity Price Theory: Application to the Ethiopian Grain Market

This paper examines the effect of "news" or advance information about future production on competitive storage behaviour and prices using a structural model of commodity markets. In particular, it generalizes the neoclassical storage model to incorporate information on future harvests, while allowing for seasonal production, two features important to African and other developing country grain markets. The model is first developed to suit the case of the Ethiopian grain markets, and a general model is then stated. The effects on welfare and price variability of the addition of news are discussed, as well as changes in key demand and uncertainty parameters. The model is shown to replicate some features of the data better than the model without news, particularly the high autocorrelation in price, and performs better in formal estimation. However, it appears that the incorporation of news still fails to explain the extreme seasonal price movements observed.     

Macroeconomic Effects of Asset‐Price Shocks in a Globalized Financial Market

In this paper, I study a model in which shocks to asset prices affect the real sector of the economy through a credit channel. As financial markets become internationally integrated, the economy becomes less vulnerable to domestic asset‐price shocks, but more vulnerable to foreign asset‐price shocks. To the extent that monetary policy stabilization is feasible and desirable, the globalization of financial markets shifts the focus of monetary policy from domestic asset prices to worldwide asset prices.     

供给刚性、市场结构与金融——关于房价的Carey(1990)模型扩展

房地产市场是一个非常复杂的市场,其价格决定较一般商品更为复杂,同时房地产又与金融的关系十分密切,因而房价的决定一直是理论界比较关心的问题.本文根据Carey(1990)模型,考虑了不完全竞争市场结构与短期供给刚性等房地产市场的特殊性质,构建了一个房地产价格的模型.我们发现在不同的供给条件下,市场结构和金融资源的政策含义是截然不同的.本文还运用中国的数据对模型进行实证检验,并利用该模型对最近我国宏观调控下房地产市场一些典型性事实进行了解释.     

我国货币供应量与股市价格关联性的实证研究

通过考察2001年1月～2011年12月的货币供应量与股票市场价格的数据,利用单位根检验、协整检验和格兰杰因果检验等实证研究方法进行分析,结果表明不同层次的货币供应量指标对股票市场价格的影响并不相同,M1与股票市场价格存在着长期均衡关系,M0和M2对股票市场价格的影响并不显著,这意味着中国货币政策的制定应当关注资产价格波动,并可通过控制M1的供应量来对股票市场进行调节。     

中国的区域关联与经济增长的空间溢出效应

本文使用探索性空间数据分析工具研究了1988-2009年间中国各省区人均GDP的空间分布格局与特征,结果显示:一方面,存在着全域范围的正的空间自相关性,并且这种相关性随着时间的推移在增大;另一方面,局域相关也显示出中国局域性的空间集聚特征越来越明显。以一个表征市场潜能对地区经济发展影响的新经济地理学模型为基础,本文通过计量分析进一步考察了中国区域经济发展的空间溢出效应。经验分析表明,空间溢出效应是中国地区经济发展不可忽视的重要影响因素,市场潜能每增长1%,地区人均GDP增长率将提高0.47%,超过了地区固定资产投资增长的弹性值。当然,实证分析也发现这种空间溢出效应会随着地区间距离间隔的增加而减少。     

Global GDP shares in the 21st century — An equilibrium approach

Using a 9-region model of the world economy, we investigate the implications of the diffusion of total factor productivity (TFP) for global GDP shares during the 21st century. The nine regions are: Africa, Asia (excluding China, India and Japan), China, Europe, India, Japan, Latin America, North America and Oceania. According to our projections, TFP catch-up at a plausible rate implies that the share of the high-income regions will more than halve by 2050 and almost halve again in the subsequent 50 years. These projected shares are little affected by variations in demographic outcomes, saving behaviour and international capital flows, but are reduced substantially should TFP catch-up be slower.     

土地垄断供给、纵向市场关系与房地产价格——兼论基于价值链分析的房地产市场竞争促进政策

地价与房价之间并不仅仅是一种成本联系.土地市场与房地产产品市场之间还存在着纵向市场关系,在两个市场均为寡头垄断的情况下,则会存在着双重垄断加成的现象.与上下游产业之间的市场交易关系相比,垂直一体化和垂直约束同样是组织住房生产的有效方式,并有助于增加消费者剩余.此外,促进房地产开发价值链上各环节的竞争,消除其垄断行为,将是降低房价和增进居民福利的重要选择.     

Regional and Global Responses to the Asian Crisis

This paper examines how economic policy-making changed as a result of the Asian crisis of 1997–1998, in the countries affected, in the region, and at the global level. It is perhaps surprising how little change has occurred in the broad approach to economic policy, but there is a much greater awareness of the vulnerabilities posed by large international capital flows. The broad tenets of the Washington Consensus, with its market-based policies, remain in place, but there is a recognition that well-functioning markets require complex institutions, rules, and procedures, and that these take time and effort to develop. Most of this institutional development will have to take place at the national level, but regional arrangements can offer support, and multilateral agencies, such as the International Monetary Fund, have learned from the crisis.     

我国信贷供给的空间聚集与区域效应研究

本文基于金融地理的视角,采用面板数据的空间计量方法,探究近年来货币政策对各省区信贷投放的不对称影响.结果显示,地理空间效应对国内区域信贷影响显著,我国区域信贷投放表现出区域聚集和地域依赖的特征.在此基础上进一步分析表明,现行货币政策的统一性形成了明显的区域差异,降低了货币政策执行的有效性;货币数量控制政策和价格控制政策,对区域信贷投放作用效果并不一样,甚至可能相互削弱、抵消,其背后是商业银行微观行为的结果.     

Entry in a Dynamic Model with Equilibrium Price Dispersion with an Application to the Market for Long-Distance Telephone Services

Models of entry based on the traditional models of oligopoly do not allow for price dispersions on homogenous products. Yet, such price dispersions do exist for homogenous products, and a firm does not lose its entire market share when it fails to charge the lowest price. Existing models of equilibrium price dispersion are not designed to analyze entry in a dynamic framework. A dynamic model is developed that allows an analysis of the effects of entry into a previously monopolized market. Despite asymmetric initial shares, the market shares of equally efficient firms tend to equalize over time. An application is the market for long‐distance telephone services following the divestiture of the bell operating companies from AT&T.     

中国证券一级市场供给与需求均衡分析

本文从中国证券一级市场选取了部分新股发行数据,用相关分析、线性回归和均衡分析等基本方法,对新股发行的供给与需求进行实证研究.结论显示:新股需求与价格变化趋势是先上升后下降,在中国现行市场条件下,股价在9元是临界点,当新股发行价低于9元时,对公司的前景预期是引导投资者的主导力量,即股价越高,预期越好,市场需求越多;当股价高于9元时,价格对需求起反向作用,即股价越高,市场需求越少.在完全市场化条件下,供给与需求能够达到均衡.     

Intra‐Week Price Patterns in the Housing Market*

In this paper, I demonstrate the existence of city‐specific intra‐week price patterns in the Norwegian housing market. I use a data set with exact sell dates to show that sell prices are higher on certain days. Using ask prices and observations on repeat sales in fixed‐effect models, I seek to control for composition effects and unobserved heterogeneity. The intra‐week price patterns are shown to be associated with patterns in the frequency of public‐showing days. I argue that the findings are consistent with optimizing agents acting on new information.     

中国货币供应量与股票价格关系的分析研究

利用1993年1月到2009年4月的经济金融月度数据,主要应用动态式计量检验方法对M1和M2及其变化与股票价格的关系进行理论分析和实证检验,结果发现:(1)我国M0、M1和M2并不能引起股票价格的变化;(2)在我国新增货币供应量M1的时间趋势图与股票价格变化的走势非常一致;(3)在我国货币供应量M2-M1的增速时间趋势图与上证指数走势也大体一致。     

我国证券市场价格与货币供给量互动关系的研究

文章使用协整检验和因果关系检验的方法研究了中国证券市场价格和货币供应量的关系,以期研究我国货币市场和资本市场直接的相互关系,检验货币供应量这一中间目标在我国中央银行调控证券市场过程中的适用性.实证结果显示我国证券市场价格和M0、M2之间存在着长期稳定的协整关系.证券市场价格可以用货币供应量M0和M2来解释,而证券市场价格变化不是引起货币供应量变化的原因.中央银行可以利用货币供应量和证券市场价格存在的长期稳定的关系,把货币供应量作为调控证券市场的中间目标,灵活调控证券市场.     

货币供应量与股市走势的实证分析

通过货币政策的变动来预测股票市场的走势不仅是个人投资者,更是机构投资者不可或缺的分析工具,但从预测的实际效果来看,不同时期的预测准确度偏差不同。究竟货币供应量与股市走势之间的内在关系如何,正是本研究希望解决的问题。经过研究认为,这种预测体系仅仅在股市处于牛市和震荡市时有效,而当股市处于熊市时是无效的。     

中国城市与区域经济增长的扩散回流与市场区效应

本文综合增长极理论和中心地学说构建了扩散回流和市场区效应空间计量模型,使用全国除西藏以外的2169个市县数据对2000年至2007年的各市县非农业产出、就业和资本增长所受到的溢出效应进行计量分析。联立方程估计表明,虽然各级市县产出、就业和资本增长的主要决定因素是要素投入和产出规模以及人力资本和地方要素,但是不同等级的城市间存在着显著的空间相互作用。其中,省会和地级中心城市的经济增长对下级市县有显著的回流效应,而下级市县的经济增长对位于市场中心的上级城市有明显的市场区增长作用,同级市县经济增长有互相促进作用。本文最后简要总结了研究结果在区域经济发展中的政策意义。