Labor Market Integration, Unemployment, and Transfers

Integration of the labor markets between a rich country (North) and a poor country (South) often leads to high unemployment in the South and transfers from North to South; for instance: United States versus Puerto Rico, West versus East Germany, Northern versus Southern Italy. This paper presents a general equilibrium model in which workers finance a transfer to the unemployed in the South in order to limit migration. In addition, it extends the framework to consider: the difference in efficiency between natives and immigrants, taxes on fixed factors in the North with internal transfers, and subsidies to the employed in the South.     

The Administered Labor Market: An Institutional Analysis

The purpose of this article is to offer a Polanyian perspective on the issue of guaranteed income (GI). In analyzing the debate over the Speenhamland system, especially as Karl Polanyi ([1944] 2001) describes it in The Great Transformation, he offered an important criticism of a GI program that some contemporary Polanyian economists have been struggling to come to terms with in their writings. Instead of defending a GI policy by seeking to reject Polanyi’s analysis of the problem, I suggest that we should consider embracing Polanyi’s concern by proposing a comprehensive twin policy that would complement a basic income program with a Keynesian full employment commitment.     

Large Cash Transfers to the Elderly in South Africa

We examine the social pension in South Africa, where large cash sums—about twice the median per capita income of African households—are paid to people qualified by age but irrespective of previous contributions. We present the history of the scheme and use a 1993 nationally representative survey to investigate the redistributive consequences of the transfers, documenting who receive the pensions, their levels of living, and those of their families. We also look at behavioural effects, particularly the effects of the cash receipts on the allocation of income to food, schooling, transfers, and savings.     

International Transfers from Rich to Poor Nations

A major shortcoming of the theoretical literature on international transfers is that it is not at all clear whether the welfare results obtained are consistent with transfers flowing from rich to poor nations. This is because economists hardly ever model the difference in wealth between the donor and recipient nations. This paper shows that, contrary to the literature, when international transfers are modeled explicitly to flow from rich to poor nations, donor-enriching recipient-impoverishing international transfers may not exist in a world which is accumulating capital.     

Migration,Transfers and Child Labor

We examine agricultural child labor in the context of emigration, transfers and the ability to hire outside labor. We start by developing a theoretical background and show how hiring labor from outside the household and transfers to the household might induce a reduction in children's working hours. Analysis using Living Standards Measurement Survey (LSMS) data on the Kagera region in Tanzania lend support to the hypothesis that both emigration and remittances reduce child labor.     

劳动力市场性别歧视行为分析

性别歧视是劳动力市场一种常见的行为,表现在两性就业、工资、职业安排、劳动保障和发展机会等方面程度不同的差别.然而,以经济学的逻辑,不同性别的报酬或职业差异本身并不能作为歧视的充分证明,因为,教育水平、年龄、工作经验和工时数量等很多因素都决定生产率的特征,甚至这种差异还可能来自两性对从事市场或家务劳动的不同选择.一个人在劳动力市场上的价值取决于影响其边际劳动生产率的所有供给和需求因素,如果与生产率无关的因素在劳动力市场上取得了正的或负的价值,才可能导致歧视.理性地认识性别歧视和对其原因进行剖析,有助于女性劳动者对提高自己禀赋资源以获得更高产生率的深刻理解.     

中国证券一级市场供给与需求均衡分析

本文从中国证券一级市场选取了部分新股发行数据,用相关分析、线性回归和均衡分析等基本方法,对新股发行的供给与需求进行实证研究.结论显示:新股需求与价格变化趋势是先上升后下降,在中国现行市场条件下,股价在9元是临界点,当新股发行价低于9元时,对公司的前景预期是引导投资者的主导力量,即股价越高,预期越好,市场需求越多;当股价高于9元时,价格对需求起反向作用,即股价越高,市场需求越少.在完全市场化条件下,供给与需求能够达到均衡.     

我国农村转移劳动力对经济增长贡献的实证分析

从我国农村转移劳动力对经济增长贡献的研究现状入手,从农村劳动力转移数量与人力资本提升角度分别阐述对经济增长的影响并利用有关数据进行实证分析,验证农村劳动力转移与其素质提升有利于社会经济增长。关于农村转移劳动力素质提升对经济增长贡献的效度测量的各种方法还需要进一步深入研究。     

Complementarity of Labor Market Institutions, Equilibrium Unemployment and the Propagation of Business Cycles

This paper evaluates complementarities of labor market institutions and the business cycle in the context of a stochastic dynamic general equilibrium model economy. Matching between workers and vacancies with endogenous time spent in search, Nash-bargained wages, payroll taxation, and differential support for unemployed labor in search and leisure are central aspects of the model. For plausible regions of the policy and institutional parameter space, the model exhibits more persistence than standard real business cycle models and can exhibit indeterminacy of rational expectations paths without increasing returns in production. Furthermore, labor market institutions act in a complementary fashion in generating these effects.     

"民工荒"与"技工荒"并存的理论解释及证据——基于投资结构与就业均衡视角的研究

"民工荒"与"技工荒"并存的情况已成为困扰中国劳动力市场健康发展的难题。文章从投资结构与就业均衡视角对此进行理论模型分析,研究发现,在资本约束条件下,技术改造型资本和外延扩大型资本的迅速扩张,导致技术和非技术劳动力需求量的急剧增长,工资刚性导致劳动力供给刚性,而人力资本投资不足则导致劳动力质量上升缓慢,因而劳动力市场中技术与非技术劳动力的供需矛盾造成了"民工荒"与"技工荒"的并存。研究表明,将技术改造型资本投入和外延扩大型资本投入保持与在职培训人力资本投资的均衡增长,那么将不会产生劳动力双重短缺,即有效解决"两荒"并存的难题。     

Labor Market Developments in Albania: An Analytical Overview

Rising unemployment and falling living standards are two of the main problems facing policymakers in economies in transition. The case of Albania is distinctive, because high unemployment has been associated with a very large private sector and by far the greatest scale of temporary emigration compared with other transition countries in Europe. The authors develop a model that characterizes the path of unemployment in the presence of temporary emigration. They analyze the emigration decision and the factors that affect registered unemployment emigration, and highlight how changes in flow probabilities between sectors affect the time paths of registered unemployment and emigration.     

从民工潮到民工荒: 基于劳动力市场管制视角的分析

自2004年春开始,曾引起社会各界关注多年的民工潮逐步被以农民工短缺为特征的民工荒所取代.从民工潮到民工荒的转变绝不仅仅是表面上的农民工由富余到短缺,其实是一种使多层次矛盾得以凸显的劳动力市场现象.从劳动力市场管制角度看,民工荒现象凸显了我国劳动力市场管制中存在的制度缺陷和管制失灵;而要破解民工荒,改善对劳动力市场特别是农民工市场的管制,无疑是一种必然选择.本文从劳动力市场管制视角对民工荒现象所蕴含的社会意义、产生原因及解决对策做一分析.     

An Economic Analysis of Public Transfers

This paper develops simple models of public transfers. The sources of income inequality are differences in ability and in luck. The government employs a redistribution policy that arises from altruistic motives in the case of ability differences. I consider the case where the government re-optimizes income transfers after it observes the outcome of private activities. When the source of income inequality is differences in luck, the economy creates a mutual insurance or provides public goods out of risk-sharing motives. I derive the paradoxical result that a more able individual would not enjoy higher welfare than a less able individual. I also investigate how public transfers react to increases in income level and income inequality.
JEL Classification Numbers: F21, F35.     

竞争性的劳动力市场与劳动力市场分割

市场机制的主要功能,是使社会有限的资源,特别是劳动力资源配置到效率或效益最高的部门或领域。劳动力使用权的转让与购买过程,同时就是劳动力资源在各种用途之间的分配过程。竞争性的劳动力市场是一种理论抽象,现实生活中的劳动力市场,是不完全竞争的,并由此引伸出劳动力市场竞争的理论与劳动力市场分割的实际之间的对立统一。     

The Role of the Safety Net and the Labor Market on Falling Cash Consumption in Russia: 1994–96 A Quintile-Based Decomposition Analysis

This paper investigates the relative importance of changes in social safety net support and labor market in explaining the decline in the purchasing power of Russian households that occurred during the period 1994–96. Drawing on three cross-sections of the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey, we find that labor market changes have been the main cause of the observed decline in cash consumption. Among these changes, reductions in the impact of the time spent in employment and increasing frequency of wage arrears are most important, more so than increases in open unemployment or the fall in real wages among workers who were fully paid. The contribution of falling state transfers to cash consumption is nonetheless substantial. We also find that the sources of the decline in household welfare vary substantially across quintiles in the distribution.     

论西部大开发中东部就业市场的均衡

一、西部大开发对东部地区劳动力需求的影响1．劳动力需求增加的行业。由于西部大开发,导致对东部地区某些行业产品需求的明显增加,刺激其生产的增长,产生对劳动力的追加需求。这些行业主要有：（1）为基础设施提供原辅材料和技术装备以及服务的行业。主要包括公路、铁路、机场、油气输送管道等交通运输设施建设,电站、电网、通信和广播电视设施建设,水利设施建设等。为这些基础设施建设提供水泥、沥青、路轨、无缝钢管、发电输电设备、广播通讯设备、提水灌溉设备的行业,以及汽车、机车及车厢、飞机等生产行业,劳动力需求必然会相应增加。与这些行业关切密切的上游部门,也因对其产品需求的增加而增加对劳动力的需求。（2）环保产业。西部大开发必然带来对环保技术装备、有利于清洁生产的生产设备、提供绿色产品的工艺技术及其的大量需求。而目前,我国环保产业主要集中分布在东部沿海,仅江苏省就占全国环保产业总产值的15％左右。（3）矿产资源探采、开发3及加工技术设备生产行业。开发西部矿产资源,其一是模清资源底数,其二是合理开发,其三是根据经济合理原则提高资源加工深度。由此,带来对矿产资源勘探、采掘、加工设备的大量需求,这些行业的劳动力需求也因此相应增加。（4）教育产业。西部地区人才资源知道缺,在大开发、大发展的形势下这一矛盾会更显突出。除上述相关产业西部地区需要大量人才（如工程技术人员、企业家及管理人员）外,一些会超过常发展的产业也会产生对人才的特殊需求。这些产业如旅游业,西部地区的旅游业将以其特有的资源优势或条件得到长足发展,从而导致对旅游业从业人员,特别是策划、管理人员、优秀导游的较多需求;外贸、外资、外经行业,扩大开放及相应优惠政策的实施必然导致西部地区三外的迅速发展,从而导致对外贸、外资、外经人才的大量需求。等等。其中大量的是从东部地区引进,促使东部地区相应骈业的发展,从而啬教职员工的需求量。     

Business Cycle Comovement and Labor Market Institutions: An Empirical Investigation

This paper examines the empirical link between labor market institutions and international business cycle synchronization. Using a data panel of 20 OECD countries over the 1964–2003 period, we evaluate how cross‐country labor market heterogeneity affects business cycle comovement. Our estimation strategy controls for a large set of possible factors influencing cross‐country GDP correlation, which allows a comparison of our results with those found in previous studies. We find that bilateral trade, trade similarity, monetary and fiscal convergence, as well as EMU membership lead to more synchronized cycles. Our results show that labor market regulations affect the extent of business cycle synchronization. Disparities in employment protection laws and direct taxation tend to lower international comovement while divergence in union density, unemployment benefits, and indirect taxation enhance cross‐country correlations. The level of labor market regulations also matters. Heavier employment taxes are found to raise GDP comovement.     

A Micro‐Econometric Analysis of the Antipoverty Effect of Social Cash Transfers in Italy

We analyze the anti‐poverty effect of social cash transfers using a micro‐econometric approach. Aggregate analyses, based on comparing average poverty indicators before and after public transfers, fail to address who receives the transfers and how the transfers are distributed among the poor. We consider three dichotomous outcome variables: (i) poverty status before the receipt of transfers; (ii) the receipt of transfers; and (iii) poverty status after the receipt of transfers. We use a trivariate probit model with sample selection, connecting the outcome variables to the characteristics of the household and its head. Our empirical results highlight that the Italian social transfers system overprotects certain household typologies at the expense of others, as social transfers are primarily awarded to employees with permanent positions and the elderly, while the system is not generous enough to large households with dependant children, the self‐employed, temporary contract workers, and the unemployed.     

贸易和移民对美国劳动力市场冲击的比较分析

近年来,美国的贸易和移民问题日益突出。移民通过增加劳动力供给直接显性地冲击了美国的劳动力市场,而贸易通过减少劳动力需求间接隐性地冲击美国劳动力市场。该文比较分析了两种冲击的特点和力度,从劳动力市场角度解释了美国贸易保护和移民限制政策的诱因,并强调了贸易发展对美国劳动力市场可能造成的更大冲击力。