虱家足球成绩影响因素的实证研究

以男子足球队在国际足联的积分作为国际足球比赛成绩的衡量，从宏观层面对影响国家足球成绩的因素进行了实证分析。研究发现，国家足球成绩受经济、人口、地理、社会等多方面影响，经济发展水平与足球成绩呈倒u型关系。良好的青少年培训是国家足球取得优异成绩的基础保证，而主办世界杯对国家足球成绩并无明显益处。     

What should you pay to host a party? An economic analysis of hosting sports mega-events

Governments all over the world put huge amounts of money into bidding for, and then hosting, sports events like Football’s World Cup or the Olympic Games. They also give money to professional sports teams and other mega-events to encourage them to locate within a particular constituency. This article examines the statistical relationship between tourism and three Football World Cups and five Olympic Games, finding very little positive effect. Given this conclusion, the article looks at why governments continue to bid for these competitions. It presents evidence that shows that these sports contests make people happy, and argues that politicians capitalize on this feel-good factor; harnessing the hubris associated with these events for political gain. The article then contends that the best way to reduce the politics associated with bidding for mega-events is to allocate them via an auction, rather than the wasteful rent-seeking methods that are currently used.     

How Do Technical Barriers to Trade Influence Trade?

This paper empirically estimates the trade effects of technical barriers to trade (TBT) based on all TBT notifications from 105 World Trade Organization (WTO) countries during 1995–2008. The paper adopts a modified two‐stage gravity model to control for both sample selection bias and firm heterogeneity bias. It was found that a country's TBT notifications decrease other countries' probability of exporting, but increase their export volumes. The result can be explained by the TBT's differential effects on the fixed and variable cost of export, and consumer confidence. It was further found that (i) a developing country's TBT have significant effects on other developing countries' exports, but no significant effects on the developed countries' exports, (ii) a developed country's TBT have significant effects on the exports from both types of countries, and (iii) exports from developed countries are affected by a developed country's TBT more seriously than a developing country's TBT.     

Determinants of India’s Exports

The objective of this paper is to examine the key determinants of India’s exports. The estimated equations show that the two variables influencing India’s export demand are the real effective exchange rate and world exports. The time trend variable which was introduced to take care of the stationarity problem and India’s GDP which is a proxy for availability also are statistically significant. Equations were also estimated at a disaggregated level of commodity groups. The article also focuses on measuring the relative contribution of the variables. For this, a new methodology is proposed. World exports which emerges as the dominant variable is however exogenous to Indian policy makers. This leaves nominal exchange rate as the tool available to policy makers. In the market determination of exchange rate, besides current account deficit, capital flows also play an important part. There is need to moderate the impact of large capital inflows on exchange rate through appropriate intervention so long as we continue to have current account deficit. An appreciating currency will erode the competitiveness of exports. Truly speaking, the critical factor is not so much exchange rate as competitiveness. In this context, maintaining domestic price stability and improving the productivity, particularly of the traded goods sector are equally important.

     

MEGA‐EVENTS AND TOURISM: THE CASE OF BRAZIL

Mega‐sporting events such as the Fédération Internationale de Football Association (FIFA) World Cup are expensive affairs. Host countries often justify the spending required to stage these events by predicting that mega‐events will draw large numbers of tourists. This paper analyzes monthly foreign tourist arrivals into Brazil between 2003 and 2015 and finds that the 2014 FIFA World Cup increased foreign tourism by roughly 1 million visitors. This number far exceeded expectations, but we show that roughly a quarter of this increase in foreign tourism was caused by the fortuitous advancement of Argentina's national team, and potential hosts should not count on the event to consistently produce out‐sized tourism figures. We conclude that on‐field results can greatly influence FIFA World Cup tourism. (JEL L83, F14)     

The trickle-down effect: how elite sporting success affects amateur participation in German football

The trickle-down effect assumes that sporting success at the elite sport level descends down to the amateur sport level in the sense that people are inspired by sporting success to participate themselves. Previous research failed to find convincing evidence for this relationship, mostly because the data used and the methods applied (e.g. cross-sectional data, primary data, correlations) were not adequate. This study addresses these shortcomings and examines the effect of national sporting success on amateur sport participation in German football using longitudinal data from 1950 to 2014. Since an individual’s decision to participate in sport also depends on other factors, the regression models also control for working hours, real wages etc. The results show that only World Cup title wins of the men’s national team have a positive and statistically significant impact on the number of and percentage changes in individual club memberships, clubs and teams. The coefficients of European Championship titles and title wins of the women’s national team turn out to be mostly insignificant. Future research should examine the reasons as to why only title wins by the men’s team have a measurable inspirational effect on amateur sport participation in football.     

Joining the World Trade Organization: What is the Impact?

Research has called into question the impact of the World Trade Organization (WTO) on trade. This research, however, has been called into question on both modeling grounds for and failing to utilize comprehensive fixed effects. Others have found that when these factors are accounted for, imports rise by significant amounts. This paper seeks to reconcile these findings. I find that the WTO has a larger, though uneven, impact on exports than imports. The results indicate that the WTO frequently causes imports and exports to move in opposite directions negating any increase in overall trade. The regressions with and without fixed country effects generally demonstrate pattern consistency for generalized results that are robust to change. Owing to the finding that imports rise modestly or even fall without country effects while exports rise, the results imply that countries may not be as interested in liberalizing trade as selling to the world.     

Revisiting the Olympic Effect

By utilizing the log‐linear gravity model, other authors have found statistically robust, permanent and large effects of hosting mega‐events (e.g. Olympics) on international exports. Surprisingly, they found that the unsuccessful bidders to host the Olympics experienced a similar impact on exports. Utilizing alternate specification such as the Poisson pseudo‐maximum likelihood (PPML) estimation that allows for heteroskedasticity prevalent in trade data, the this paper fails to find a robust positive effect of hosting and bidding for a mega‐event on total aggregate exports. Under heteroskedasticity, the parameters of log‐linearized models estimated by ordinary least squares (OLS) lead to biased estimates of the true elasticities.     

OPTIMAL EXPORT AND HEDGING DECISIONS WHEN FORWARD MARKETS ARE INCOMPLETE

This paper examines the behaviour of the competitive firm that exports to two foreign countries under multiple sources of exchange rate uncertainty. There is a forward market between the home currency and one foreign country's currency, but there are no hedging instruments directly related to the other foreign country's currency. We show that the separation theorem holds when the firm optimally exports to the foreign country with the currency forward market. The full‐hedging theorem holds either when the firm exports exclusively to the foreign country with the currency forward market or when the relevant spot exchange rates are independent. In the case that the relevant spot exchange rates are positively (negatively) correlated in the sense of regression dependence, the firm optimally opts for a short (long) forward position for cross‐hedging purposes.     

The Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on UK Exports to EU Countries

This paper investigates the impact of exchange rate volatility on UK exports to European Union (EU) countries by means of a newly developed ARDL bounds testing procedure to cointegration. Using monthly data disaggregated by market of destination and sectors for the period 1993ml to 2001m6, our results indicate that UK exports to the EU14, at both aggregate and sectoral level, are generally income elastic, relative price inelastic and largely unaffected by short‐term exchange rate volatility. Re‐estimation of the model using a long‐term measure of volatility, however, provides evidence supporting the hypothesis that exchange rate uncertainty has a negative and significant influence on UK exports to EU countries.     

The effects of exchange rate uncertainty on exports

We investigate the effects of exchange rate uncertainty on exports in the context of a multivariate framework in which a structural open economy vector autoregression is modified to accommodate multivariate GARCH-in-Mean errors, as detailed in Elder (Elder, J., 2004. Another perspective on the effects of inflation uncertainty. Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking 36, 912–928). Our measure of exchange rate uncertainty is the conditional standard deviation of the forecast error of the change in the exchange rate. We isolate the effects of exchange rate uncertainty on exports and also analyze how accounting for exchange rate uncertainty affects the response of exports to exchange rate shocks. We estimate the model using aggregate monthly data for the United States, over the flexible exchange rate period (since 1973). We use full information maximum likelihood estimation procedures and find that exchange rate uncertainty has a negative and significant effect on US exports. We also find that accounting for exchange rate uncertainty tends to strengthen the dynamic response of exports to shocks in the exchange rate and that exports respond asymmetrically to positive and negative exchange rate shocks of equal magnitude.     

Drivers of technological capabilities in developing countries: An econometric analysis of Argentina,Brazil and Chile

This paper contributes to the literature that analyses the determinants and measurement of Technological Capabilities (TCs) with empirical evidence on Argentina, Brazil and Chile. Based on the World Bank's Investment Climate database, the study covers firms from the manufacturing sector. We first construct a Capability Score to provide a preliminary measure of Technological Capabilities at the firm level. We then test it econometrically to explore the determinants of TCs and exports and evaluate their reciprocal relationship through a Two Stage Probit. Our results show that exports and TCs significantly and positively influence each other in some of these countries.     

Olympic Games: No legacy for sports

Countries whose cities host the Summer Olympic Games increase significantly their success during the competition. We study whether such effect is lasting or not. We compute the effect of hosting on the total number of medals in the subsequent games. To confront the issue that the selection of the host city is endogenous, we use a natural counterfactual: countries whose cities also bid for the Olympics but were not selected by the International Olympic Committee. In all cases, we find that Olympic success on medals fades away immediately after hosting.     

Whose policy uncertainty affects commodity trade between Australia and the United States?

Recent studies are assessing the impact of news-based policy uncertainty measure on trade flows between countries. In this paper we add to this new literature by investigating the symmetric and asymmetric effects of Australian policy uncertainty index and the U.S. index on trade flows of 63 two-digit industries that trade between the two countries. When we estimated a symmetric and linear model for each industry, we found short-run effects of both uncertainty measures on 30% of the industries' trade flows. However, this number increased to 70% when an asymmetric and nonlinear model was estimated. The long-run effects of both policy uncertainty followed similar pattern. Less than 10% of trade was affected by the estimates of the linear models. However, estimates of the nonlinear models predicted that 41.20% (26.53%) of the U.S. exports to Australia was affected by the U.S. uncertainty (Australian uncertainty). As for the Australian exports to the United States, 6.72% (5.5%) of its exports were affected by the changes in the U.S. policy uncertainty (Australian uncertainty). In almost all industries, increased uncertainty was found to hurt the trade and decreased uncertainty was found to boost it at different rate or asymmetrically. In sum, the U.S. and Australian policy uncertainty measure affects U.S. exports to Australia much more than they affect Australian exports to the United States.     

Unsuccessful patent application and cooperative R&;D

We show that uncertainty in patent approvals may induce the firms to do cooperative R&D. With an exogenous probability of success in patent application, we show that, if all firms apply for patents under non-cooperative R&D, the firms prefer cooperative R&D than non-cooperative R&D for moderate (high) probabilities of success in patent applications, if the cost of patenting is small (large). We also show the implications of entry of non-innovating firms and endogenous probability of success in patent applications.      

OVERSEAS NETWORK OF EXPORT PROMOTION AGENCY AND EXPORT PERFORMANCE: THE KOREAN CASE

Governments have established export promotion agencies (EPAs) in an effort to boost exports. Despite criticism regarding the effectiveness of EPAs, the policy has not been abandoned and there has been an increasing recognition of the benefits on the basis of economic justification, including market failures. Such policies must be based strictly on evidence. Are EPAs truly crucial for export success? Some have argued that export success in Korea has been due largely to government policies targeted at the promotion of exports. This paper demonstrates that the network of EPA offices abroad has been a critical factor in the success of Korea's exports. An increase of 10% in the budget of EPA's overseas offices has been shown to increase exports by 2.45%–6.34%. The findings of this paper present a clear rationale for government intervention. (JEL F10, F14)     

Foreign direct investment and exports: a time series approach

The impact of the accelerated internationalization of the last decade on the Austrian economy is a controversial issue. Granger's concept of casuality is used to investigate one aspect of the internationalization of production: the realtionship between foreign outward direct investment and exports using aggregate flow data from the Austrian economy. The stationarity of the time series is examined and cointegration tests for the adequacy of the multivariate time series approach are performed. The estimation results suggest significant causality of Austrian foreign outward direct investment and exports in both directions. Impulse response analysis and varience decomposition show a very slow dynamic response of both variables to exogenous shocks of the other. It furthermnore indicates the possiblity of a positive effect of exogeneously increased foreign direct investment on exports and a negative effect of export shocks on foreign direct investment; however, significant long-run effects are not established.     

The Eurozone Sovereign Debt Problem: What It Means for U.S. Exports

The European sovereign debt problem became the focus of world attention in 2010, when the interest rates on Greek government bonds rose dramatically, requiring immediate action by the European Union to avoid an imminent default. It has become clear that the problem is not limited to Greece, but a more general problem of the fundamental imbalances and underlying inconsistencies in the Eurozone economic system of using a single currency for a set of countries that lack a unified economic and political system. Financial markets reacted to the debt offering of the other deficit countries in the Eurozone by increasing interest rates on their sovereign debt as well. The major consequences are likely to be largely felt by the Eurozone countries themselves, some of whom will be forced to go through significant structural adjustments over the coming years. The adjustment process could generate a range of alternative macroeconomic outcomes for affected countries??including differences in growth, exchange rates, and investment??which could have significant implications for U.S. trade. This paper attempts to allay some of that uncertainty by exploring a wide range of alternative global macroeconomic outcomes and their potential impact on U.S. exports. The analysis extends the work done in a previous paper which focused on U.S. agricultural exports and its major components. While U.S. exports vary across the scenarios, continued strong economic growth in developing countries supports demand for U.S. exports. Because the EU has represented a declining share of U.S. exports, the direct impact of changes in European demand affects U.S. exports less than the secondary effects of changes in exchange rates and global investment patterns associated with alternative EU outcomes.     

Exports and economic growth in Central and East European countries during transition

This paper quantifies the contribution of exports to economic growth in Central and East European countries (CEECs) during transition. Two theoretical models are examined: the first is based on an aggregate production function which includes exports as an additional ‘input’; while the second is based on a two-sector (exports and non-exports) model where exports provide positive externalities in non-export production. Each model is estimated with both fixed and random effects using panel data. Results show that the random effects model is preferred and that exports have a significant impact on economic growth.     

Hidden costs of supply management in a small market

Canada regulates its dairy and poultry industries through supply management. The supply‐management programs use target prices, production quotas and import tariff‐rate quotas to raise domestic prices. Canadian supply‐managed producers cannot export their output to world markets as exports would be considered subsidized under World Trade Organization rules. In this paper, we show that once foregone export opportunities are accounted for, supply management may no longer be beneficial to domestic producers of the supply‐managed commodities. The extent to which foregone profits from exports dominate domestic rents depends on Canada's comparative advantage, domestic market elasticities and the extent of supply management distortion in the domestic market.