The power of online panel paradata to predict unit nonresponse and voluntary attrition in a longitudinal design

The objective of this study is to identify factors affecting participation rates, i.e., nonresponse and voluntary attrition rates, and their predictive power in a probability-based online panel. Participation for this panel had already been investigated in the literature according to the socio-demographic and socio-psychological characteristics of respondents and different types of paradata, such as device type or questionnaire navigation, had also been explored. In this study, the predictive power of online panel participation paradata was instead evaluated, which was expected (at least in theory) to offer even more complex insight into respondents’ behavior over time. This kind of paradata would also enable the derivation of longitudinal variables measuring respondents’ panel activity, such as survey outcome rates and consecutive waves with a particular survey outcome prior to a wave (e.g., response, noncontact, refusal), and could also be used in models controlling for unobserved heterogeneity. Using the Life in Australia? participation data for all recruited members for the first 30 waves, multiple linear, binary logistic and panel random-effect logit regression analyses were carried out to assess socio-demographic and online panel paradata predictors of nonresponse and attrition that were available and contributed to the accuracy of prediction and the best statistical modeling. The proposed approach with the derived paradata predictors and random-effect logistic regression proved to be reasonably accurate for predicting nonresponse—with just 15 waves of online panel paradata (even without sociodemographics) and logit random-effect modeling almost four out of five nonrespondents could be correctly identified in the subsequent wave.

     

Issues in the Design and Analysis of Panel Studies: A Cursory Review

This paper offers a broad review of some aspects in the design and analysis of panel studies, chiefly of household panel surveys. Both the analytic benefits and the potential problems of panel surveys are briefly outlined, and selected methodological and operational issues, which crucially affect data quality are highlighted. These questions are then considered under four headings: (i) dynamic population and its implications for initial sampling and following rules; (ii) panel length and number of waves; (iii) tracking and tracing techniques, and other strategies for maintaining high participation rates; (iv) questionnaire design and strategies for collecting retrospective information. While no technical details are offered, there is some discussion of the possible drawbacks and advantages of the different approaches described.     

Retrospective questions: data quality,task difficulty,and the use of a checklist

Data from a national panel study with waves in 1987 and 1991 (N=1257), present evidence of the low accuracy of responses to retrospective questions, concerning both attitudes and behaviour. Applying a split ballot design, it is investigated whether using a checklist improves the response accuracy for a retrospective question about one single event: how respondents (N=363) did obtain the job they had four years ago. Furthermore interaction effects of ‘task difficulty’ are examined. The response accuracy indeed increases by using a checklist; however, this increase is not statistically significant. The expected increase of the checklist effect with higher ‘task difficulty’ appears for longer recall intervals, but not for more frequent changes of jobs. It turned out that for male respondents all the predicted effects are indeed clearly present. But for female respondents the checklist appeared to have no effect, irrespective of the task difficulty. A tentative explanation for this unexpected gender effect is suggested by pointing at indications that the male and female respondents differed in the way they obtained their job.     

A smoothed maximum score estimator for the binary choice panel data model with an application to labour force participation

In a binary choice panel data model with individual effects and two time periods, Manski proposed the maximum score estimator based on a discontinuous objective function and proved its consistency under weak distributional assumptions. The rate of convergence is low ( N ^1/3) and its limit distribution cannot easily be used for statistical inference. In this paper we apply the idea of Horowitz to smooth Manski's objective function. The resulting smoothed maximum score estimator is consistent and asymptotically normal with a rate of convergence that can be made arbitrarily close to N ^1/2, depending on the strength of the smoothness assumptions imposed. The estimator can be applied to panels with more than two time periods and to unbalanced panels. We apply the estimator to analyze labour force participation of married Dutch females.     

新型墙板产品的性能及应用

为进一步推动我国新型墙板的应用,本文详细介绍目前常用新型墙板的主要产品及其性能,分析了目前各板材墙体产品的主要技术性能及目前使用中存在的各种问题,并就相应的解决措施进行了探讨。     

Does survey experience affect respondents’ reported level of satisfaction?

Web surveys are becoming an indispensable tool for quantitative researchers, and online survey panels have proliferated in recent years. However, little research has addressed the challenges of using online panels, namely the potential effects of respondents’ survey experience, also known as panel conditioning. This paper is based on a study of Danish parents’ day care arrangements and their associated level of satisfaction. A survey was conducted through an online panel and included measurements of past survey participation. Through tests of independence on key variables and the application of various ordered logit models, we find no significant evidence that survey experience affects respondents’ reported level of satisfaction. These results persist when testing the potential interaction between survey experience and experiences with day care services. Furthermore, we relate our results to the existing literature and discuss the possibility of different effects cancelling each other out. This leads us to recommendations on the use of online panels and suggestions for elaboration in future research.     

Measure of privacy in randomized response model

Randomized response (say, RR) techniques on survey are used for collecting data on sensitive issues while trying to protect the respondents’ privacy. The degree of confidentiality will clearly determine whether or not respondents choose to cooperate. There have been many proposals for privacy measures with very different implications for an optimal model design. These derived measures of protection privacy involve both conditional probabilities of being perceived as belonging to sensitive group, denoted as P(A|yes) and P(A|no). In this paper, we introduce an alternative criterion to measure privacy protection and reconsider and compare some RR models in the light of the efficiency/protection privacy. This measure is known to the respondents before they agree to use the RR model. This measure is helpful for choosing an optimal RR model in practice.     

栈桥混凝土面板与型钢面板的经济性比较

同常规型钢面板栈桥经济性对比分析,如型钢桥面在第一个项目使用完毕后短期内无项目需周转或项目前期资金紧张,混凝土面板作为一个替代方案对于减小成本投入显著。     

Finite‐sample comparison of alternative methods for estimating dynamic panel data models

The Wooldridge method is based on a simple and novel strategy to deal with the initial values problem in nonlinear dynamic random‐effects panel data models. The characteristic of the method makes it very attractive in empirical applications. However, its finite sample performance and robustness are not fully known as of yet. In this paper we investigate the performance and robustness of this method in comparison with an ideal case in which the initial values are known constants; the worst scenario is based on an exogenous initial values assumption, and the Heckman's reduced‐form approximation method, which is widely used in the literature. The dynamic random‐effects probit and Tobit (type I) models are used as working examples. Various designs of the Monte Carlo experiments and two further empirical illustrations are provided. The results suggest that the Wooldridge method works very well only for the panels of moderately long duration (longer than 5–8 periods). Heckman's reduced‐form approximation is suggested for short panels (shorter than 5 periods). It is also found that all the methods tend to perform equally well for panels of long duration (longer than 15–20 periods). Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

玻壳合格率及质量成本对策

本文从数理统计入手，给出了玻壳生产中更换产品前后合格率的关系公式，并和实际统计值进行了比较，有较好的符合，为科学量化分析提供了工具。并据此分析，不同尺寸的玻壳产品，当池炉系统的质量水平下降时，它们的合格率的差别也在扩大，并量可能会使得原先利润相对高的产品变得利润相对低。通过合理地计划产品品种的生产，可以获得更多的利润，降低单位成本。同时也阐明原有的新产品质量目标设定方法的不合理性，给出了质量目标设定的科学依据。     

Alternative Indicators for the Risk of Non‐response Bias: A Simulation Study

The growth of non‐response rates for social science surveys has led to increased concern about the risk of non‐response bias. Unfortunately, the non‐response rate is a poor indicator of when non‐response bias is likely to occur. We consider in this paper a set of alternative indicators. A large‐scale simulation study is used to explore how each of these indicators performs in a variety of circumstances. Although, as expected, none of the indicators fully depict the impact of non‐response in survey estimates, we discuss how they can be used when creating a plausible account of the risks for non‐response bias for a survey. We also describe an interesting characteristic of the fraction of missing information that may be helpful in diagnosing not‐missing‐at‐random mechanisms in certain situations.     

Conducting Online Surveys

The World Wide Web (WWW) is increasingly being used as a tool and platform for survey research. Two types of electronic or online surveys available for data collection are the email and Web based survey, and they constitute the focus of this paper. We address a multitude of issues researchers should consider before and during the use of this method of data collection: advantages and liabilities with this form of survey research, sampling problems, questionnaire design considerations, suggestions in approaching potential respondents, response rates and aspects of data processing. Where relevant, the methodological issues involved are illustrated with examples from our own research practice. This methods review shows that most challenges are resolved when taking into account the principles that guide the conduct of conventional surveys.     

Estimation Strategies for a Spatial Dynamic Panel using GMM. A New Approach to the Convergence Issue of European Regions

Abstract

While estimation methods for dynamic panel data and spatial econometric models are standard in economic literature, there has been a relatively recent development in methods which include spatial considerations in dynamic panel data models. This paper proposes two estimation strategies for spatial dynamic panel data models using the generalized method of moments (GMM). The first is to extend the moment restrictions of Arellano and Bond's estimator to a spatial autoregressive dynamic panel. The second allows for spatial dependence in the error process. The empirical application focuses on European regional growth over a 25-year period. We find empirical evidence of conditional convergence, which is significantly affected by spatial disparities.

Stratégies d'estimation pour un panel dynamique spatial faisant usage de GMM. Une nouvelle approche pour le problème de la convergence de régions d'Europe

Rèsumè Bien que les méthodes d'estimation pour les données de panels dynamiques, et les modèles économétriques spatiaux, sont des instruments standards dans les ouvrages d’économie, on a assisté à une évolution relativement récente des méthodes, qui comprend des considérations spatiales dans les modèles de panels dynamiques. La présente communication propose deux stratégies d'estimation concernant des modèles de données de panel dynamique spatiales faisant usage de la méthodes des moments généralisés (MMG). La première consiste à étendre les restrictions de moments de l'estimateur d'Arellano et Bond à un panel dynamique autorégressif spatial. La deuxième tient compte de la dépendance spatiale dans le processus des erreurs. L'application empirique se concentre sur l'expansion régionale en Europe au cours d'une période de 25 ans. Nous relevons des preuves empiriques de convergence conditionnelle, qui sont affectées de façon significative par des disparités spatiales.

Estrategias de estimación para un panel dinámico espacial utilizando GMM. Un nuevo planteamiento de la cuestión de la convergencia de regiones europeas

Extracto Aunque los métodos de estimación para datos dinámicos de panel y modelos econométricos espaciales son estándar en la bibliografía económica, se ha producido un desarrollo relativamente reciente en dichos métodos que incluye consideraciones espaciales en modelos de datos dinámicos de panel. Este estudio propone dos estrategias de estimación para los modelos de datos espaciales dinámicos de panel utilizando el método general de momentos (GMM). El primero sirve para extender las restricciones de momentos del estimador de Arellano y Bond a un panel espacial dinámico autorregresivo. El segundo tiene en cuenta una dependencia espacial en el proceso de error. La aplicación empírica se centra en el crecimiento regional europeo en un período de 25 años. Descubrimos evidencia empírica de convergencia condicional, que es afectada significativamente por disparidades espaciales.

     

The potential of a multi-mode data collection design to reduce non response bias. The case of a survey of employers

The aim of the paper is to compare two alternative survey designs in terms of resultant response rates, non response bias and cost. The first design is a simple postal survey with follow-up mailings; the second design is a two-phase multi-mode design, where the postal survey is followed at the second phase by a telephone survey of non-respondents. We present a case study based on a survey of employers. In this study we find evidence that the sample obtained using only postal methods is biased in important respects. Bias is not apparent in the demographic characteristics of the employees. But bias is observed in some of the employees’ employment characteristics and some of the characteristics of the firms in which they work. The multi mode design seems, overall, to have reduced or removed the bias of the postal sample. Only in marginal respects was some further bias introduced. We also compare costs of the two designs, to enable a comparison of cost-effectiveness at bias reduction.     

Does Repeated Measurement Improve Income Data Quality?

This paper exploits a natural experiment created by a survey design to show that the quality of income data systematically changes across waves of a panel. We estimate that the effect of being interviewed for a second time, relative to the first, is to increase mean monthly income by 8%. Dependent interviewing – a recall device commonly used in panel surveys – explains one third of the observed increase. The remaining share is attributed to changes in respondent behaviour (panel conditioning). We review the evidence for and against a reporting improvement vs. a behavioural response by survey participants.     

Adjusting for Non‐Response in Population‐Based Case‐Control Studies

In this paper we discuss the analysis of data from population‐based case‐control studies when there is appreciable non‐response. We develop a class of estimating equations that are relatively easy to implement. For some important special cases, we also provide efficient semi‐parametric maximum‐likelihood methods. We compare the methods in a simulation study based on data from the Women's Cardiovascular Health Study discussed in Arbogast et al. (Estimating incidence rates from population‐based case‐control studies in the presence of non‐respondents, Biometrical Journal 44, 227–239, 2002).     

The effect of questionnaire length on survey response

Survey textbooks suggest that long questionnaires should be avoided, and a careful reading of the available empirical evidence confirms the negative effects of substantial length on both response rates and the quality of those responses which are obtained. Data is presented from a lengthy survey in Britain in 1987. Analysis of reasons for nonresponse to this survey suggest that length may indeed have been a significant disincentive to respond for many. However, no effect of length was found on item quality as measured by the number of responses given to open-ended questions. Unexpectedly, the variance in number of responses was greater when the questions were asked later in the questionnaire. The results are interpreted as resulting from the greater power that respondents gain as the survey proceeds.     

On selectivity of nonresponse in discrete-time multi-wave panel studies

The current paper deals with the issue of the detection of selective nonresponse in discrete-time, multi-wave panel studies. If groups in a population differ with respect to the chances that they will be (and remain) in a longitudinal sample, we speak of selective nonresponse. Ultimately, selective nonresponse may lead to a sample that is very different from the target population. We discuss ways to detect and quantify the amount of selectiveness by means of discrete-time Markov models. Then we proceed by addressing how a researcher may gain understanding of how to solve the problems caused by selective nonresponse, and the degree to which these solutions will be effective, by means of data on the nonresponse during a three-wave panel study involving 2800 young Dutch adults.     

Is there a unit root in the inflation rate? Evidence from sequential break and panel data models

Using sequential trend break and panel data models, we investigate the unit root hypothesis for the inflation rates of thirteen OECD countries. With individual country tests, we find evidence of stationarity in only four of the thirteen countries. The results are more striking with the panel data model. We can strongly reject the unit root hypothesis both for a panel of all thirteen countries and for a number of smaller panels consisting of as few as three countries. The non-rejection of the unit root hypothesis for inflation is very fragile to even a small amount of cross-section variation. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

谈影响汽车仪表板支架质量的相关因素

仪表板支架总成不仅是仪表板系统的内部骨架,还是仪表板系统与白车身总成的连接支架,起到支撑仪表板系统的作用,为仪表板系统安装提供部件,以增加整个车身的强度.文章对某公司不同车型仪表板支架进行比较分析,概述了影响汽车仪表板支架质量的相关因素,从而获得影响汽车仪表板支架质量的相关信息,为后续仪表板支架的设计、制造及质量控制提供参考