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Many recent attempts to find evidence on downward nominal wage rigidity in micro data have suffered from problems such as composition bias and the effects of measurement error. In this paper, a model of proportional downward nominal wage rigidity is developed which avoids these problems by taking into account the determinants of wage changes and the measurement process that leads to observable earnings changes. We find a high degree of downward nominal wage rigidity in German micro data. Its real implications for individual expected wage growth, the aggregate wage level and equilibrium unemployment have marked effects for rates of inflation lower than 3 percent.  相似文献   

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This paper investigates the issue of time inconsistency of monetary policy in a game with perfect information and infinite repetitions. The private sector is described by a wage negotiation process between a labour union and a firm. Unlike in the standard literature, the model has the feature that as the distortion of the economy gets larger, namely as the bargaining power of the union increases, the reputational equilibrium with low inflation becomes more likely to occur. This finding is consistent with the observation that higher levels of the labour cost are not typically associated with higher levels of inflation.  相似文献   

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Pattern bargaining with the tradables (manufacturing) sector as the wage leader is common in Europe. We question the conventional wisdom that such bargaining produces wage restraint. In our model, all forms of pattern bargaining give the same outcomes as uncoordinated bargaining under inflation targeting. Under a monetary union, wage leadership for the non‐tradables sector is conducive to wage restraint, whereas wage leadership for the tradables sector is not. Comparison thinking might lead the follower to set the same wage as the leader. Such equilibria can arise when the leader sector is the smaller sector, and these can promote high employment.  相似文献   

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The paper documents the price setting practices followed by some 400 or so firms operating in Greece. Survey replies reveal a low percentage of firms changing prices with frequency higher than annual and staggering of price changes during the year. As to firms’ reactions to unexpected shocks, prices appear to adjust sluggishly to cost shocks with asymmetries in price adjustment across positive and negative shocks. Adjustments to increases in costs appear speedier than those to reductions in demand. The data confirm a result found for other countries: the existence of cross‐sectional variations in price setting strategies and in the extent to which prices are adjusted in reaction to unexpected shocks. The results suggest a positive association between, on the one hand, product market competition and, on the other hand, state‐dependent pricing, frequent price changes and the likelihood of a price adjustment following an adverse demand shock.  相似文献   

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This paper analyses the effect of downwards wage rigidity on wage setting, wage compression and firm training. It is shown that downwards wage rigidity in future periods induces a wage penalty and increases wage compression in the present period. However, contrary to previous work this is not sufficient to increase firms’ training investments. The reason lies in the endogeneity of separations, which become more frequent.  相似文献   

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We develop a novel medium-scale DSGE model, called NORA, for fiscal policy analysis in Norway. NORA contains a sheltered and exposed sector allowing us to model wage bargaining between a labor union and the exposed sector, reflecting Scandinavian wage formation institutions. Wages are subject to a downward nominal wage rigidity (DNWR). Inspired by many countries' fiscal policy responses to the Great Recession and the coronavirus pandemic, we investigate the model's ability to generate state-dependent fiscal multipliers. We find, that both the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates and DNWR individually can account for higher fiscal multipliers during recessions. In joint presence, however, the existence of DNWR reduces the multiplier at the ZLB. Moreover, the DNWR significantly relaxes the paradox of toil at the ZLB. We show that the state-dependency is robust to alternative assumptions about the origin of the recession, the nature of the fiscal stimulus and its financing source.  相似文献   

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This study shows that the rate of wage inflation in the year before a recession is positively related to the rate of employment growth in the subsequent recovery. A possible explanation for this relationship is downward nominal wage rigidity. It is also found that the prior rate of wage inflation is not significantly related to the employment decline during the ensuing recession, suggesting that prior wage inflation has a greater impact on the strength of the recovery from a recession than on the severity of the recession.  相似文献   

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This paper examines the importance of nominal rigidity for nonlinearity and asymmetry of exchange rate pass‐through. For this purpose, we rely on company‐level data of French importing firms. We find that the well established fact that “prices rise faster than they fall,” which is characterized by the convex import price reaction function, lies primarily with the presence of nominal rigidity. Once price stickiness is controlled for, there is empirical evidence that the import price reaction function is rather concave if the linearity assumption can be rejected, indicating that firms aim primarily to protect their market share.  相似文献   

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We propose and estimate a generalized Taylor rule for the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to find out how the Fed funds rate is sensitive to changes in inflation and output gap variables in the post war period. We find that Fed's monetary policy has only reacted significantly to changes in inflation when they were between approximately 6.5–8.5%. However, the policy stance change on these changes was relatively small. The findings suggest that the US Fed has been too averse to change from its current monetary policy stance, and that it has not reacted noticeably to changes in the US economic activity, as measured by the output gap. The generalized functional form for the monetary policy rule suggests that similar non-linearity exists in the directional change of the Fed rate.  相似文献   

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Ethnic enclaves and immigrant earnings growth   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
Abstract.  The impact of living in an ethnic enclave on earnings growth of immigrants in Canada is examined using the 1981–2001 Censuses. Consistent with U.S. findings, enclaves are found to have a negative impact on the earnings growth of male immigrants. A negative impact is also found for female immigrants. Living in an enclave was found to be particularly harmful for individuals immigrating as adults, especially for females, but did not affect immigrants who arrived at a young age. Enclaves had a more negative impact on high-skilled male immigrants, especially if they had received the bulk of their education outside Canada. Enclaves were also found to hinder language skills.  相似文献   

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This paper substantially extends the available evidence on downward nominal wage rigidity in the European Union (EU) and the Euro Area. We develop an econometric multi-country model based on Kahn’s (Am Econ Rev 87(5):993–1008, 1997) histogram-location approach and apply it to employee micro data from the European Community Household Panel for 12 of the EU’s member states. Our estimates for the degree of downward nominal wage rigidity on the national as well as the EU-wide level point to substantial downward nominal wage rigidity within the EU. A detailed comparison with other cross-national studies reveals an emerging consensus about which countries can be characterized as high or low rigidity countries, although the status of some countries remains unclear. The variation in national degrees of downward nominal wage rigidity cannot convincingly be explained by institutional variables.   相似文献   

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This study tests for and models non-linearities in inflation deviations from the target in five OECD countries that adopted inflation targeting over the 1990s. Our tests reject the linearity hypothesis and we show that the exponential smooth transition autoregressive (ESTAR) model is capable of capturing the non-linear behavior of inflation misalignments. The extent of inflation deviations from the target varies across the OECD countries, with countries that consistently undershoot the target having a rapid adjustment process, whereas countries that overshoot the target have a slower revision back to equilibrium. Out-of-sample forecasts from the ESTAR model outperform the Markov regime-switching model.  相似文献   

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We develop a New Keynesian model featuring staggered price and wage contracts to study welfare costs of exogenous variations in trend inflation. The analyses show that the consequences of constant positive trend inflation and shifting trend inflation are severe, especially when trend inflation is high. Among two channels, staggered wage contracts play a vital role in transmitting adverse impacts of constant and shifting trend inflation into the economy. Without the staggered wage channel, these costs are modest. We also conduct exercises to examine the sensitivity of welfare costs to a wide range of plausible parameters. The results show that if the price and wage friction are sufficiently large, the price and wage indexation level are sufficiently small, or there is upward biased trend inflation process, the welfare costs become larger.  相似文献   

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我国自然失业率的测量与解析——基于1978-2007年数据   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
通过分析自然失业率的三种数理模型,采用比较静态分析与计量统计检验的方法,发现纳入工资刚性的凯恩斯主义NAIRU模型更符合我国实际.利用这个模型,在放宽自然失业率恒定不变和阶段性变化假设的基础上,测量了1978-2007年我国各年的自然失业率.1978年以来,我国自然失业率总体呈现上升趋势,到2003年为一个极大点;2003-2007年自然失业率开始下降,分别为9.25%、9.09%、13.1%、10.9%、7.15%.另外,我国平均的名义工资刚性度和实际工资刚性度分别为0.873、0.221.在我国,技术进步对自然失业率是具有长期效应而不是短期效应.技术进步倾向于减少自然失业率,而这与Pissarides等人在美国的研究结论是相反的.  相似文献   

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This study examines how changes in the minimum wage affect child labor in India. The analysis uses repeated cross sections of India's NSSO employment data from 1983 to 2008 merged with data on state-level minimum wage rates. Theoretically, the impact of the minimum wage on child work could go either way, so empirical evidence from a country with high rates of child labor and a myriad of minimum wage laws across states and industries helps to lessen the ambiguity. Results indicate that regardless of gender, in urban areas, a higher minimum wage reduces child labor in household work. In rural areas a similar result applies for girls while household labor does rise for boys. The minimum wage has virtually no impact on child work outside of the home across urban and rural areas.  相似文献   

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Economic disparity between ethnic groups is sometimes supposed to be the main driver of ethnic conflict. Understanding the extent and the sources of such disparity is then important to help formulate policies that aim at avoiding further conflict. This paper analyzes economic disparity between Kyrgyz and Uzbeks in southern Kyrgyzstan. These groups were involved in violent clashes in the recent past. Using household survey data from 2005, we show that, in contrast to the public perception, Kyrgyz households have slightly higher expenditure than Uzbek households in urban areas and about the same level in rural areas. The gap in urban areas is mostly due to smaller households and higher education among the Kyrgyz. We also find that Uzbek households are better off than Kyrgyz households in terms of the value of housing property. We argue that the house value gap can be explained by the Uzbeks having larger houses, which are home to larger families and serve as a basis for running small businesses.  相似文献   

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