Tariff Liberalization and Trade Integration of Emerging Countries

This paper investigates how tariff liberalization has affected exporting at the product‐destination level in emerging countries. We use a highly disaggregated (six‐digit level of the harmonized system—HS—classification) bilateral measure of market access to compare tariffs applied in 1996 and 2006, which includes the timing of the Uruguay Round and episodes of bilateral liberalization. Our econometric estimations consider impacts of tariff cuts on three components of the trade margins: extensive margin of entry (new trade relationships at the product‐destination level), extensive margin of exit (disappearance of existing relationships) and intensive margin of trade (deepening existing relationships). Our main estimates indicate that a reduction of bilateral applied tariffs of 1 percentage point increases the extensive margin of entry by 0.1% and the intensive one by 2.09%, while it reduces the extensive margin of exit by 0.25%.     

Quantifying the trade-reducing effect of embargoes: Firm-level evidence from Russia

In 2014, Russia responded to sanctions imposed by a coalition of Western countries with a retaliatory import embargo. I draw on this unique case study and a customs data set on firm-level import transactions to investigate the ramifications of Russia's counter-sanctions on firm-level foreign trade. Using detailed data and a triple-difference estimation strategy, I examine micro-level dynamics and heterogeneities that aggregate data alone do not reveal. I identify the effects of the embargo on the extensive margin (the probability that a firm imports a particular product from a given country in a particular time period) and the intensive margin (the value of a firm's import transaction) of firm-level trade, as well as its effects on logged unit values. The main findings of this study show that the embargo had statistically significant negative impacts on extensive and intensive margins of firm-level trade. I also pinpoint evidence of multiple exemptions from the embargo and a large degree of heterogeneity of firm-level responses to the embargo based on firm attributes, such as firm size and government connection.     

Reconciling the WTO Effects on Trade at the Extensive and Intensive Margins

Empirical studies examining the impact of World Trade Organization (WTO) membership have produced disparate results. These studies, however, have focused on total aggregate trade flows. In this paper, we utilize disaggregated product level data to examine the impact of WTO membership on the product level extensive and intensive margin of imports. Utilizing the Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood (PPML) estimation that allows for heteroskedasticity in trade data and accounting for several estimation issues, we do not find a positive impact on either margins between WTO member country-pairs. Once we examine asymmetries in trade flows across countries based on their level of development, we find that developing WTO members experience an increase in the extensive margin from industrial member countries. Additionally, the industrial WTO members also experience an increase in the extensive margin from developing WTO members. Results suggest that WTO facilitates the North–South trade relationship, which has been largely absent in trade literature.     

How do Multiproduct Exporters React to a Change in Trade Costs?*

We use data on individual French exporters to document how a change in trade costs, following the introduction of the euro, affected the export margins of firms in relation to export decisions, the number of products exported, and the average sales per product. Our results confirm two effects predicted by the theory: firms increase the range of products they export as well as their intensive margin. This effect is most evident in markets with moderate monetary policy coordination before 1999. General equilibrium competition effects reduce the initial positive impact on each of these margins. We find no evidence that firms increase their participation in the export market.     

The Belt and Road Initiative and China's Export: A Soft Power Perspective

Using a newly built soft power index, we examine whether and how soft power affects Chinese firm-level export to the Belt and Road (B&R) countries from 2000 to 2016. We find that soft power has significantly positive effects on both export value and export product types for the B&R countries. These effects are more pronounced than those for non-B&R countries and differ not only between the "Belt" and the "Road" countries but also regional groups, firm ownerships, modes of trade, and sectors. Further analysis shows that soft power increases the intensive margin of exports by approximately three times that of the extensive margin. Thus, our findings provide a new perspective for understanding both the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and the contemporary economic evolution occurring in China.     

Internet use and export upgrading: Firm‐level evidence from China

This paper explores the impact of widespread Internet use on the product choices of exporters. Based on a highly disaggregated firm–product‐level data matched from the Annual Survey of Industrial Firms and China Customs Transaction Database, our baseline empirical analysis suggests that (1) Internet use (i.e., having an official website or corporate email) affects both extensive margin and quality margin of exported products; (2) exporters using Internet propone to expand their product line of export by introducing new products (cost‐reduction effect on extensive margin); (3) the average quality of exported products becomes lower after the Internet is adopted by exporters (competition effect on quality margin). Our heterogeneous analysis further shows that (1) exporters with high productivity are immune to the negative impact of Internet use on quality margin and maintain quality growth; (2) having an official website exerts larger impacts on both extensive margin and quality margin compared with only having a corporate email system. Our research sheds light on the existing literature on Internet use and firm export behaviors.     

Exports,investment and policy uncertainty

Building on a literature that underscores the value of delaying investment in the face of uncertainty, we study how policy uncertainty in 18 large economies affects exports to these economies. We decompose aggregate bilateral trade flows from 1995 to 2013 into intensive and extensive margin components and employ a gravity specification to assess the impact of policy uncertainty on each margin separately. Consistent with theory, increases in policy uncertainty decrease both trade values and the extensive margin but, if anything, increase the intensive margin. In further tests, we use various proxies for sunk export costs and demonstrate that the effects of policy uncertainty are more pronounced where sunk costs are higher.     

金融发展、FDI与中国制造业出口绩效——基于新新贸易理论的实证分析

本文以新近发展的新新贸易理论为基础,将中国80余万条制造业出口数据归类到我国国民经济分类制造业,分别使用Probit模型和Heckman选择模型检验了金融发展和FDI对中国制造业出口二元边际的影响。研究表明,在控制其他影响因素的前提下,融资约束是影响企业出口决策的重要因素,而金融发展有助于企业缓解融资约束,使其能够在最优状态下生产,不仅有利其进入出口市场,还扩大了其出口份额,从而对贸易的扩展边际和集约边际都有积极的影响。此外,FDI缓解了我国出口企业面临的信贷约束,促进融资依赖性行业出口的二元边际,一定程度上发挥了与金融发展同样的作用,进一步的估计表明,FDI是通过替代银行信贷而发挥作用的。     

Deconstructing gravity: trade costs and extensive and intensive margins

Abstract This paper uses data on US exports to decompose exports into the number of exporting firms (the extensive margin) and average export sales (the intensive margin). We show how a range of proxies for trade costs has different impacts on the two margins. Distance has a negative effect on both margins, but the magnitude is considerably larger for the extensive margin. Most of the variables capturing language, internal geography, infrastructure and import cost barriers work through the extensive margin. We show that these results are consistent with a Melitz‐style model of trade with heterogeneous firm productivity and fixed costs.     

Trade and the Euro: effects on bystanders

This article investigates trade effects of the euro focusing on the impact on bystanders. We use data for Swedish firms and examine the impact on exporting firms’ intensive and extensive margins of trade. Our result shows an overall increase in Swedish firms’ exports to the euro area after the introduction of the single currency, indicating that the euro has decreased trade costs also for outsiders. In addition, we find important heterogeneity in the sample, suggesting that it is the large majority of small firms that has increased trade flows with the Eurozone the most.     

Multi-Product Firms and Flexible Manufacturing in the Global Economy

We present a new model of multi-product firms (MPFs) and flexible manufacturing, and explore its implications in partial and general oligopolistic equilibrium. Globalization affects the scale and scope (or intensive margin and intra-firm extensive margin) of MPFs through a competition effect and a demand effect. The model highlights a new source of gains from trade: productivity increases as firms become "leaner and meaner", concentrating on their core competence; but also a new source of losses from trade: product variety may fall. Our results also hold under free entry, which allows in addition for adjustment along the traditional inter-firm extensive margin.     

DIVERSE ORGANIZATIONS AND THE COMPETITION FOR TALENT

We propose a theory of firm production that requires diverse inputs. We show that in a competitive labor market, firms differ in their skill composition. Organizations with higher total factor productivity (TFP) are larger and hire from a broader range of skills. Technological progress leads to an increase of all wages and results in downsizing. Quantifying productivity using our model shows that a constant elasticity of substitution (CES) production function generates unbiased estimates of TFP but biased estimates of marginal product and elasticity of substitution across skills. Our model also generates estimates of the TFP distribution based on CEO compensation alone.     

Intertemporal substitution in import demand and the role of habit formation: an application of Euler equation approach for Pakistan

Introduction

The study examines the importance of intertemporal substitution in import demand considering the role of habit formation. A two-goods version of the permanent income model is used in which time-non-separability in consumers’s preferences is assumed. The model is estimated using annual data for Pakistan at disaggregated level covering the period from 1977 to 2017.

Objectives

The objective of the study is to estimate elasticities of substitution along with parameters of habit formation for consumption goods at a disaggregated level.

Method

The study employs co-integration for the estimation of parameters of elasticities of substitution and generalized method of moments (GMM) for the estimation of the parameters of habit formation from Euler equations.

Findings

The estimates of intertempral elasticity of substitution suggest that the nature of commodity group (necessity/luxury) plays an important role when consumers are making intertemporal choices. Moreover, the study finds that intratemporal elasticity of substitution is larger than intertempral elasticity of substitution in almost all cases in Pakistan, suggesting that imported and domestic goods are best described as substitutes in Edgeworth-Pareto sense. In addition, the inclusion of habit formation delivers results with plausible signs and the habit formation process seems significant for certain commodity groups including tea, beverages, tobacco products and drugs.

Conclusion

The study concludes that there is a possibility of crowding out effect on domestic consumption and the depreciation of local currency may improve Pakistan’s balance of trade.

     

Short-Term and Long-Term Margins of International Trade: Evidence from the Canada-Chile Free Trade Agreement

We investigate the impact of the Canada-Chile Free Trade Agreement (CCFTA) on Canadian exports to Chile, particularly the dynamic effects of the agreement on extensive and intensive margins of trade. Consistent with the literature, we find that the extensive margin effects occurred later than the intensive margin effects and became more prominent in the long-term. Surprisingly, the intensive margin effects died off in the long-term. A theoretical model is constructed to show that our results can arise in a standard setting of intra-industry trade.     

The Impact of Input and Output Tariffs on Firms' Productivity: Theory and Evidence

This paper studies the impact of trade liberalization on productivity. It shows that when intermediate inputs are not highly differentiated, lowering input tariffs leads to a rise in within‐firm productivity and wages, and lowering output tariffs has the opposite effect. When intermediate inputs are highly differentiated, the conclusions reverse. These predictions are supported by the data, given by the industrial survey from INEGI (Mexico's Insitituto Nacional de Estadistica Geografia e Informacion) in the period 1984–90. The paper yields estimates for the elasticity of substitution among intermediate inputs, which are useful in determining the direction of the impact of trade liberalization. These estimates can be used to assess the gains from trade liberalization.     

策略性采购联盟、集体谈判与最优贸易政策选择——基于广义Cournot-Nash谈判函数的分析

文章发展了一个关于由本国企业组成的中间品策略性采购联盟与外国垄断性供给者进行集体谈判的模型一—该模型以中国的制造业外包服务,即出口加工贸易实践为基础,其中,中间品的采购价格与数量通过有效的Nash谈判过程同时决定。当采购联盟的效用函数的数量弹性高于（低于）价格弹性,则该联盟的偏好为数量（价格）导向的。文章证明：（1）当本国与外国的中间品与最终产品贸易具有互补性时,政府贸易政策调整的价格、数量以及福利效应是不确定的,它们依存于本国采购联盟的偏好、最终产品需求曲线的弹性与曲率、外国企业的技术以及生产专业化程度;（2）政府贸易政策的干预功能与企业策略性联盟的自主调整功能存在重叠与冲突。     

The anatomy of the aggregate labor supply elasticity

We show that the aggregate Frisch elasticity of labor supply can greatly exceed the corresponding individual-level parameter, and we illustrate the “anatomy” of the former in terms of intensive and extensive margins. The methodology consists of using micro data from the PSID to construct a panel of individuals and an aggregate time series obtained by aggregating these individuals each year. These two data sets represent exactly the same sample at different levels of aggregation, and we use them to identify the parameters of two distinct MaCurdy-type micro and macro equations. We find a micro elasticity of about 0.1 and a much larger macro elasticity that ranges from 1.1 to 1.7. There is no conflict between the two estimates: the micro one reflects only the intensive margin while the macro one reflects, in addition, the much more volatile extensive margin. Furthermore, aggregation of only continuously employed individuals allows us to provide a reliable estimate of the intensive margin elasticity in the range 0.3–0.4. This implies an extensive margin elasticity in the range 0.8–1.4. These findings suggest that micro evidence is not a benchmark for assessing how large the Frisch elasticity of labor supply should be in a model of the aggregate economy.     

Goods market responses to trade shocks and trade and wages decompositions

Abstract.  Trade and wages literature asks whether trade or technology has been the major factor behind increases in wage inequality in OECD countries since the 1980s. In this literature, little attention has been paid to how goods market responses to trade shocks affect conclusions. Using an Armington heterogeneous goods trade model we capture demand side effects, and show how trade shocks affecting the price of unskilled‐intensive importable goods can be absorbed on the demand side of goods markets, with little or no impact on relative wage rates. No wage impact occurs if the elasticity of substitution in preferences between imports and import substitutes is one. As this elasticity increases, trade plays an ever larger role in explaining wage inequality changes, and as the elasticity goes below one the sign of the effect changes. We present some results of general equilibrium decompositions of total wage change into trade and technology components using UK data. We suggest that since many import demand elasticity estimates are in the neighbourhood of one, there is a prima facie case that goods market considerations further lower the significance of trade as an explanation of recent trends in OECD wage inequality beyond that claimed in the literature.     

Multi-product firms,heterogeneous quality and exporting behaviour: product-level evidence from the movie industry

This article examines how quality affects heterogeneous multiple-product firms’ exporting behaviours. We develop a structural model of the global movie market, including both consumers’ movie demand choices and firms’ exporting decisions. A movie studio is a multi-product firm that releases many movies within a year. We model movie quality as a combination of firm-level appeal and product-level attractiveness. We find that both studio-level and movie-level heterogeneity affect demand for movie, and movie-level heterogeneity is relatively more important. We also explore the counterfactual effects of quality improvement and trade liberalization on trade. Our results show that improvement of quality increases both intensive margin and extensive margin of trade. By elimination of quota, we find that trade liberalization increases movie exports to a foreign market by 19%. The results of our study can also help improve understanding of trade in the service industry. For instance, we do not find a positive correlation between the foreign entry costs and the geographic distance, as in the case of manufacture goods.     

The 2009 Recovery Act: Stimulus at the extensive and intensive labor margins

This paper studies the effect of government stimulus spending on a novel aspect of the labor market: the differential impact of spending on the total wage bill versus employment. We analyze the 2009 Recovery Act via instrumental variables using a new instrument, the spending done by federal agencies that were not instructed to target funds towards harder hit regions. We find a moderate positive effect on jobs created/saved (i.e., the “extensive margin”) and also a significant increase in wage payments to workers whose job status was safe without Recovery Act funds (i.e., the “intensive margin”). Our point estimates imply that roughly one-half of the wage payments resulting from the act were paid at the intensive margin. To provide a theoretical underpinning for the estimates, we build a micro-founded dynamic model in which a firm meets new government demand with a combination of new hiring and increasing existing workers׳ average hours. Faced with hiring costs and an overtime premium, the firm responds by increasing hours along both margins. Our model analysis also provides insight into how government spending policy should be structured to lower the cost of generating new jobs. Finally, we catalogue survey evidence from Recovery Act fund recipients that reinforces the importance of the intensive labor margin.