Roads out of poverty? Assessing the links between aid,public investment,growth, and poverty reduction

This paper presents a dynamic macroeconomic model that captures key linkages between foreign aid, public investment, growth, and poverty. Public capital is disaggregated into education, core infrastructure, and health. Dutch disease effects associated with aid are accounted for by endogenizing changes in the relative price of domestic goods. The impact of shocks on poverty is assessed through partial elasticities and household survey data. The model is calibrated for Ethiopia and changes in the level of nonfood aid are simulated. The amount by which (nonfood) aid should increase to reach the poverty targets of the Millennium Development Goals is also calculated, under alternative assumptions about the degree of efficiency of public investment.     

Educational qualifications mismatch in Europe. Is it demand or supply driven?

Most papers dealing with individual overeducation risks focus on labour supply characteristics and workers’ behaviour. On the other hand, only few studies consider labour demand characteristics and technological change. In this paper we analyse the influence of both demand and supply factors on educational mismatch in a set of 10 European countries. Our hypothesis, confirmed by results obtained using ordered probit model with sample selection, is that demand factors generally play a major role in reducing educational mismatch in technologically more advanced countries, whereas supply factors are more important in countries that are lagging behind in the international division of labour. At the same time, important cross-country and gender differences have been identified in how the demand/supply factors operate. All this calls for the fine-tuning of policies intended to tackle the problem of educational mismatch.     

Public pension programmes and the retirement of married couples in Denmark

In this paper we study the economic determinants of the joint retirement process of married couples. We propose a tractable dynamic discrete choice model for retirement decisions which allows for non-trivial saving behaviour. We estimate the model on a 1% sample of Danish couples of potential retirement age drawn from a population-based administrative register. The introduction and subsequent reforms of a publicly financed early retirement programme provide us with variation in the data to insure identification of the parameters of interest: the elasticities of participation/retirement with respect to income flows. Our estimates imply a significant asymmetry in the sensitivity of retirement behaviour of men and women with respect to variation in their own, or their spouse's, income flows.     

Restructuring hospital industry to control public health care expenditure: The role of input substitutability

In this paper we investigate the economic rationality of the bed downsizing process, characterising the hospital industry worldwide in the last decades, as a measure to control public health care expenditure. Considering a sample of Italian hospitals, we provide fresh evidence on the factor substitutability in the production of hospital services. Differently from other studies, based on North-American data and limited to pre-determined cost function models, we estimate a general specification (the Generalised Composite), and test it against traditional nested models (e.g. the Translog). For all the specifications we derive Allen, Morishima and Shadow elasticities of substitution between input pairs, obtaining a fairly consistent picture across all models and elasticity concepts. In particular, our results highlight a very limited degree of substitutability between factors in the production of hospital services, especially between beds and medical staff. These findings suggest that a restructuring policy of the hospital industry, which is confined to reducing the number of beds without involving workforce management, could not be a viable strategy for controlling public health care expenditure.     

A comparison of the poverty impact of transfers, taxes and market income across five OECD countries

This paper compares the poverty reduction impact of income sources, taxes and transfers across five OECD countries. Since the estimation of that impact can depend on the order in which the various income sources are introduced into the analysis, it is done by using the Shapley value. Estimates of the poverty reduction impact are presented in a normalized and unnormalized fashion, in order to take into account the total as well as the per dollar impacts. The methodology is applied to data from the Luxembourg Income Study database.     

Is perceived financial inadequacy persistent?

In an attempt to understand the determinants of financial inadequacy, this paper employs the ability of households to make ends meet as a measure of their perceived financial inadequacy. Using household‐level data from the European Community Household Panel covering eight countries over the period from 1994 to 2001, this study applies a dynamic probit model that incorporates both state dependency and individual fixed effects. Exploiting a latterly enhanced bias‐corrected fixed‐effects probit model, I address the persistent nature of subjective financial inadequacy by directly estimating fixed effects while correcting for incidental parameters and avoiding the initial conditions problem of dynamic models. The results reveal that employing time‐invariant individual effects to model subjective monetary perception is essential. However, by controlling for household heterogeneity, income, indebtedness, and health status, I find that in addition to the major differences across European households, country‐specific factors can have adverse effects on the persistent nature of perceived financial inadequacy.     

Always Poor or Never Poor and Nothing in Between? Duration of Child Poverty in Germany

Abstract. This paper analyses the duration of child poverty in Germany. Observing the entire income history from the individuals' birth to their coming of age at age 18, we are able to analyse dynamics in and out of poverty for the entire population of children, whether they become poor at least once or not. Using duration models, we find that household composition, most importantly single parenthood, and the labour market status as well as level of education of the household head are the main driving forces behind exit from and re‐entry into poverty and thus determine the (long‐term) experience of poverty.     

Are Lone Mothers Responsive to Policy Changes? Evidence from a Workfare Reform in a Generous Welfare State*

There is a heated debate in many developed countries about how to design a welfare system that moves lone mothers off welfare and into work. We analyze the consequences of a major Norwegian workfare reform of the generous welfare system for lone mothers. The reform imposed work requirements and time limits on welfare receipt, while raising in‐work benefits. Our difference‐in‐differences estimates show that the reform was successful in improving labor‐market participation and in increasing the earnings of lone mothers. However, the reform was associated with income loss and increased poverty among a sizeable subgroup of lone mothers, who were unable to offset the loss of out‐of‐work benefits with gains in earnings.