On the Time‐Varying Relationship between Unemployment and Output: What shapes it?

This paper revisits, by means of both time series and panel data analyses, the empirical regularity popularized by Okun's (Proc Bus Econ Sect, 98‐103, 1962) seminal paper focusing on a sample of 20 advanced economies between 1978 and 2015. Not only do we provide arguably better estimates of the Okun's Law coefficient (OLC) (using the gap version) by employing a new filtering technique, but more importantly, we also contest the hypothesis that the OLC has been static over time. By estimating country‐specific time‐varying Okun coefficient models, we confirm that the unemployment‐output responsiveness has been changing over time. The dispersion between countries’ OLCs has been determined by some (structural) characteristics. The starting level of unemployment and the phase of the business cycle increase the estimated OLCs, while informality and certain labour and product market policies lower them. Our evidence sustains the fact that aggregate demand policies aiming at increasing output growth can equally contribute to the recovery in labour markets.     

Is the Relationship between Inflation and Its Uncertainty Linear?

Abstract. We use parametric power ARCH models of the conditional variance of inflation to model the relationship between inflation and its uncertainty using monthly data for Germany, the Netherlands and Sweden over a period ranging from 1962 to 2004. For all three countries inflation significantly raises inflation uncertainty as predicted by Friedman. Increased uncertainty affects inflation in all countries but not in the same manner. For Sweden we find a negative impact in accordance with the Holland hypothesis, whereas for Germany and the Netherlands we find the opposite in support of the Cukierman–Meltzer hypothesis. In a sensitivity analysis we show that an arbitrary choice of the heteroscedasticity parameter influences this relationship significantly.     

On Money and Output in the Euro Area: Is Money Redundant?

This paper examines the relationship between money and future movements in output at business-cycle frequencies in the euro area. Importantly, the evidence suggests that the money stock is found to significantly affect output independent of the real interest rate. This finding supports the argument made by Meltzer (2001) Meltzer, A. H. 2001. “The transmission process”. In The Monetary Transmission Process: Recent Developments and Lessons for Europe, Edited by: Deutsche, Bundesbank. 112–130. London: Palgrave.  [Google Scholar] that the effects of monetary policy actions on the real economy are not fully captured by the short-term real rate.     

Is there a “reform fatigue” in the euro area?

The absence of monetary policy within a currency union increases the need for structural reforms that make the participating economies more flexible. However, the absence of exchange rate risk with respect to the other members of the union may reduce the urgency for such reforms. A number of other considerations also suggest that theory is ambiguous about the impact of participating in a currency union on progress in structural reforms. This paper addresses this issue empirically for the euro area. The results suggest that reforms in the euro area seem to have decelerated following the introduction of the euro, but from a fast pace. The paper discusses a number of possible explanations, including “reform fatigue,” the absence of “market punishment,” and “good-times” complacency. Estimates from an empirical growth model suggest that the slowing of reforms may slow down annual output growth by up to 0.2%. However, the results are preliminary and depend on the area of reform considered. Furthermore, the reform dynamics may change with the euro area starting slowing at the end of 2007.     

U or Inverted‐U? That Is the Question

Fields ( The Economic Journal , vol. 103, 1993, pp. 1228–35) provides a forceful argument in favor of a U-shaped path for inequality during a period of high-income-sector enlargement in a dual-economy model. This paper explores the assumptions necessary to derive Fields's controversial result and demonstrates that in fact a U-shaped pattern is possible using the Atkinson index, but some bizarre assumptions about inequality aversion are required.     

A comment on ‘Is the spurious regression problem spurious?’

McCallum (2010) presented evidence that the spurious regression problem can be solved by standard means. We show using finite-sample evidence that the spurious regression problem cannot always be fixed using standard autocorrelation correction procedures and remains, therefore, a not-so-spurious problem.     

When and Where Are Informed Traders? What Is Their Relationship with Analysts in the Price Discovery Process?

The authors' aim was to analyze the influence of analysts' recommendations on the activity of informed and uninformed traders and whether such influence produces changes in the price discovery process. The analysis was carried out in the Spanish market, considered to be an ideal market given its characteristics. The authors' results indicate that although investors as a whole react to new information from analysts and their activity increases, this reaction is not independent of the type of stock. Informed traders do not increase their activity with small stocks to the same extent as uninformed investors do. Furthermore, the influence of these movements on price discovery is not significant. The results suggest that the interpretation role of analysts is more important for less accessible firms in terms of assessing their growth opportunities. This role may enhance the herding behavior of uninformed agents trading in those small titles for which they would otherwise need to invest extra time and extra money for taking profitable decisions.     

Is there a “true” diversity?

Jost [Jost, L., 2006. Entropy and diversity. Oikos, 113: 363-374.] recently discussed Hill's [Hill, M., 1973. Diversity and evenness: a unifying notation and its consequences. Ecology, 54: 427-431.] effective number of species and concluded by naming it the “true” diversity. In this note we comment on parts of Jost's work and argue that the true diversity is not what the name suggests.     

Sectoral and Aggregate Technology Shocks:Is There a Relationship?

We analyze sector-specific shocks in productivity and demand in 19 manufacturing sectors of the Austrian economy. Based on a structural vector autoregressive model (SVAR) with long-run restrictions developed by Galí (1999) we extract technology and non-technology shocks from sectoral and aggregate data. We study their patterns and relationship by means of a principal components analysis and find a close association of sectoral and macroeconomic non-technology shocks but only a very weak association for technology shocks. Impulse response analysis indicates that for almost all manufacturing sectors as well as the aggregate Austrian economy productivity growth rates experience an immediate increase due to positive technology shocks while hours worked decline. Thereby we confirm Galís results on the level of Austrian manufacturing industries. From regression analysis, we find that our shocks are closely associated to employment growth and output growth but not to investment growth and that the reaction is different for the aggregate economy and manufacturing industries.JEL codes: D24, E23, E32, O30We thank Werner Müller and the participants of the 2004 conference of the Austrian Economic Association (NOeG) for helpful comments. We would like to thank an anonymous referee for many helpful comments that led to a substantial improvement of the paper. The usual disclaimer applies. This research project was supported by a research Grant (Project Nr. 9800) of the Jubiläumsfonds der Österreichische Nationalbank (OeNB).     

Diverging Stories of “Missing Women” in South Asia: Is Son Preference Weakening in Bangladesh?

ABSTRACT

South Asia is a region characterized by a culture of son preference, severe discrimination against daughters, and excess levels of female mortality, leading to what Amartya Sen called the phenomenon of “missing women.” However, the onset of fertility decline across the region has been accompanied by considerable divergence in this phenomenon. In India, improvements in overall life expectancy have closed the gender gap in mortality rates among adults, but persisting gender discrimination among children and increasing resort to female-selective abortion has led to growing imbalance in child sex ratios and sex ratios at birth. In Bangladesh, by contrast, fertility decline has been accompanied by a closing of the gender gap in mortality in all age groups. Using quantitative and qualitative data, this study explores changing attitudes toward sons and daughters in Bangladesh to explain why the phenomenon of “missing women” has played out so differently in these two neighboring countries.     

Does Globalization Foster Economic Growth?

This article examines the effects of globalization, by especially focusing on the relaxation of local equity requirements (LERs) in developing countries. By constructing an endogenous growth model, where profit leakage to the South through LERs plays a key role, we obtain the following results. First, the relaxation of LERs in the South drives the relocation of firms from the North to the South, yielding a U‐shaped growth rate. Second, our numerical simulations suggest that a sufficient relaxation of LERs is beneficial for the South, although the shared profit of joint ventures is maximized through the use of LERs.     

Is GDP a Relevant Social Welfare Indicator? A Savers–Spenders Theory Approach

The use of GDP as the main index of progress and welfare of a country has been the subject of a long debate among economists. Using and extending the savers–spenders theory, we analyse the theoretical relationship between GDP and the welfare of a society. This analysis is undertaken using several different overlapping generations models which all take into account the great heterogeneity of consumer behaviour observed in the data (different labour supply choices, different degrees of altruism and/or different degrees of impatience to consume). The results indicate that GDP (per capita) is often a relevant index and is always a decent social welfare indicator.     

Is Embodied Technology the Result of Upstream R&D? Industry-Level Evidence

This paper provides an exploratory analysis of whether data on the research and development (R&D) spending directed at particular technological/product fields can be used to measure industry-level capital-embodied technological change. Evidence from the patent literature suggests that the R&D directed at a product, as the main input into the “innovation” production function, is proportional to the value of the innovations in that product. I confirm this hypothesis by showing that the decline in the relative price of a good is positively correlated with the R&D directed at that product. The hypothesis implies that the technological change, or innovation, embodied in an industry's capital is proportional to the R&D that is done (“upstream”) by the economy as a whole on each of the capital goods that a (“downstream”) industry purchases. Using R&D data from the National Science Foundation, I construct measures of capital-embodied R&D. I find they have a strong effect on conventionally measured total-factor productivity growth, a phenomenon that seems to be due partly to the mismeasurement of quality change in the capital stock and partly to a positive correlation between embodied and disembodied technological change. Finally, I find the cross-industry variation in empirical estimates of embodied technological change accord with the cross-industry variation in embodied R&D. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Number: O3.     

Is there also a North–South Divide in the Diffusion of Crime? A Cluster Analysis of Italian Provinces

The presence of crime is often considered as one of the most important social variables to be negatively associated with economic development. As is well known, Italy exhibits an economic divide between its central‐northern and southern regions. This paper tries to ascertain whether there is also a divide in the diffusion of crime. To this purpose, Italian provinces are classified into groups by using a new methodology that combines cluster analysis with time series cross‐section data. The statistical searches for groups are carried out by using an unbalanced time series cross‐section data‐set made up of yearly observations. The results of the analysis show that crime is not inextricably tied to certain geographical locations, and not others, as is usually believed.     

Is the US Consumer Credit Asymmetric?

We investigate the existence of any asymmetric effects in the US consumer credit. In doing so, we utilize the asymmetric cointegration methods proposed by Breitung (2001, 2002) and Enders and Siklos (2001). Furthermore, we tend to explore two additional dimensions in this literature. First, whether asymmetries (if any) are persistent over‐time in the credit demand model. Second, whether the Great recession contributed to any asymmetric impacts on the credit demand. Our results revealed that the long‐run relationship of consumer credit (credit, income, wealth and interest rate on personal loans) is asymmetric. While it is difficult to identify the direct sources of this asymmetric result, our intuition is that it is linked to the structural breaks in the rate of personal loans encountered in the early 1980s. Moreover, we find no strong evidence that much of the asymmetric impacts in consumer credit were experienced in the Great recession. Neither have we attained evidence that asymmetric impacts on credit demand are persistent over‐time.